51吃瓜

US and European policy is pushing Russia into China鈥檚 arms.

The crisis in Ukraine has plunged US-Russian relations to their lowest point since the Cold War. Crimea is now Russian territory. Although prisoners of war have been聽聽and both sides have agreed to pull back heavy weapons, the accord signed on February 12 in Minsk has聽 so far to stop the fighting in eastern Ukraine. The city of Debaltseve has fallen into the hands of separatists. On February 22,聽a 聽exploded at a rally in Ukraine鈥檚 second largest city of Kharkiv, killing two people 鈥� the suspects are accused by the Ukrainian government as having been trained in Russia.

For Washington, the conflict between the West and Russia has become much more than a battle over Ukraine鈥檚 territorial integrity. It has become a provocation to the Western liberal international order that the US worked hard to create at the end of the Cold War; an order based on democracy, the rule of law and free markets. Russia has not gone down this road. Instead, it is now聽聽the European security order, particularly the eastern European states.

Talk of a new Cold War has emerged in Washington political circles. Similar views are echoed in Russia. Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow,聽聽of the Kremlin鈥檚 thinking: 鈥淭he country [Russia] is on a holy mission. It鈥檚 at war with the United States.鈥�

In pushing to impose sanctions against Moscow (and possibly arm the Ukrainians), US policymakers seem to have given little thought to the long-term geopolitical impact of this rift on relations with China. If there is no viable solution to the Ukrainian conflict, we believe that the unintended 鈥渨inner鈥� of the crisis could well be Beijing. Here鈥檚 why.

China Rising

According to the聽International Monetary Fund (IMF), China has now surpassed the United States as the world鈥檚 number one economy as measured by purchasing power parity. Beijing is also engaged in a major military buildup. Like other emerging great powers in history 鈥� especially the US in the late 19^th century 鈥� China seeks to emerge as the dominant power in its own region.

Russia is helping to fuel China鈥檚 rise. If the US and Europe don鈥檛 mend their adversarial relationship with Russia, China will be in a position to counteract the US even sooner.

Russia鈥檚 economy is tanking because of collapsing oil prices and Western sanctions. The World Bank now projects that Russia鈥檚 gross domestic product (GDP) will decline by 2.9% in 2015. And the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development estimates that Russia鈥檚 economy will shrink by close to 5% this year. In a desperate attempt to stave off economic disaster, Russia is turning toward Asia to sell its natural resources, obtain loans and forge new military arrangements.

In May 2014, for example, Moscow and Beijing signed a $400 billion聽gas . In November 2014, another framework聽聽for gas supply to China was signed. In September 2014, then-US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel聽 out聽that China and Russia were jointly developing new weapons systems. Russia鈥檚 trade with China聽is to increase to $100 billion this year from $90 billion in 2014.

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The two-fold logic of this rapprochement is simple: China needs resources and Russia has them. Russia needs markets, foreign investment and money 鈥� and China has them.

Geopolitical interests also overlap. China does not want the South China Sea dominated by Americans. Russia does not want the West 鈥� the US and Europe 鈥� to penetrate what Moscow perceives as 鈥渋ts sphere of influence.鈥� In short, Russia and China do not want a world dominated by the US. That much is clear.

At the same time, China and Russia are geopolitical rivals. Indeed for Russia, its links to China are a Faustian bargain.

In the short-term, Russia gains by selling oil, gas and other natural resources to China. In the longer-term, however, the consequence is to further strengthen the emergence of a China that seems fated to be Russia鈥檚 long-term competitor. Moscow is helping China to grow economically and become more powerful even as Russia itself is becoming weaker.

European leaders are rightly alarmed by the situation in Ukraine. The casualties are mounting and the Ukrainian economy is on the verge of collapse. A solution to the crisis needs to be found.

There is a lot of talk, especially in Washington, about the 鈥減ost-Soviet space鈥� 鈥� the former republics of the Soviet Union (like Ukraine) that gained independence following the Soviet collapse. American and European policymakers need to remember that the post-Soviet space was also the pre-Soviet space 鈥� the Tsarist Russian Empire. Russia still sees itself as the dominant power in a region where history and culture give it special interests. While the redrawing of Europe鈥檚 map, as聽US Vice President Joe Biden聽 it, is unacceptable, it is a fact on the ground that will be difficult to undo. Despite understandable condemnations of the Russian moves, negotiations with Moscow should continue.

In the longer-term, the US needs to think about how to be a triangular great power. Most US strategic thinkers agree that it is China, not Russia, that poses the most significant 21^st century geopolitical challenge to the United States. Strategy 101 would then dictate that Russia should be a counterweight to rising China.

But at the moment, US (and European) policy is pushing Russia into China鈥檚 arms. This, we would argue, is a geopolitical mistake. If the US-Russia rift is not healed, it is China that will be the winner.

*[This article was originally published by .]

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