To address this crisis, Egypt has turned to international lenders and allies, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Union (EU) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. They have secured over $50 billion in financial commitments in 2023 alone.

These interventions have allowed Egypt to implement critical short-term measures, such as devaluing its currency, reducing subsidies and increasing interest rates. Meanwhile, the IMF has offered an $8 billion loan package as part of its 2022 program for Egypt, aiming to mitigate currency overvaluation and fiscal imbalances. Yet analysts like Steven Cook, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, that Egypt’s economic resilience remains uncertain without deeper structural reforms. This is particularly true given the limited progress on divesting military-controlled businesses and liberalizing the private sector.

Egypt’s exchange rate has shown significant volatility over the past two decades, with the Egyptian pound (EGP) experiencing sharp depreciations against the United States dollar (USD). In 2024, the EGP/USD rate dropped by 37.03%, driven by shrinking foreign currency reserves, a widening trade deficit and rising demand for USD amidst persistent economic uncertainties. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has responded with various stabilization measures, including devaluations, interest rate hikes and capital controls. However, structural economic challenges and market pressures continue to weigh on the EGP, signaling ongoing currency instability for the near term.

Historically, Egypt’s crisis reflects a dependence on international financial aid to address chronic fiscal issues. The country has experienced at least eight significant BOP crises since 1952, each leading to IMF programs or financial interventions from international partners to stabilize the economy temporarily. However, these interventions have rarely resulted in lasting reforms, as Egypt often returns to fixed or highly stabilized exchange rates following periods of financial distress. This recurring cycle is largely driven by Egypt’s state-centric governance model and persistent cronyism, which have deterred sustainable growth and prevented the formation of a resilient market economy.

While Egypt’s strategic importance makes it “too big to fail” for many international partners, questions remain about whether the current assistance will drive meaningful change or merely delay another crisis. According to a report by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and research from the IMF, without comprehensive reform, Egypt risks continued fiscal and economic instability. Experts argue that structural adjustments — including reducing of the economy and allowing a fully flexible exchange rate — are essential for breaking the cycle of economic instability and achieving sustainable growth.

Case comparisons: Argentina and Turkey’s currency crises

The economic trajectories of Argentina and Turkey offer insights into the cyclical nature of currency crises in emerging markets, particularly those burdened with high levels of external debt and recurrent currency depreciation. These cases demonstrate the limitations of short-term financial fixes in the absence of comprehensive structural reforms and robust fiscal management, with implications relevant to Egypt’s current economic challenges.

Argentina’s financial history is marked by chronic fiscal mismanagement, high external debt and recurrent reliance on IMF bailouts. Since the early 2000s, Argentina has defaulted on its debt multiple times, eroding investor confidence and creating a volatile investment environment. The country’s approach has typically focused on immediate crisis resolution through IMF assistance, currency devaluation and austerity measures, rather than on deep structural reforms. For instance, Argentina’s 2000–2002 , during which it defaulted on $95 billion in debt, led to a sharp devaluation of the peso and significant social hardship. Despite an IMF bailout and subsequent restructuring, Argentina’s pattern of accumulating debt and renegotiating it without establishing a sustainable fiscal framework has continued. This culminated in additional in 2014 and 2020.

The core of Argentina’s instability lies in its weak fiscal discipline, characterized by chronic budget deficits and a lack of political consensus on sustainable economic policies. This instability has created a self-perpetuating cycle: High debt burdens lead to recurring defaults, eroding trust among foreign investors, which then necessitates further reliance on external support and austerity measures, perpetuating economic fragility. Argentina’s experiences underscore the limitations of debt-driven growth and the dangers of relying on short-term financial infusions without addressing underlying structural issues, such as public spending control and inflation stabilization.

Turkey’s recent economic difficulties stem from a combination of high inflation, excessive reliance on foreign-denominated debt and an unorthodox approach to monetary policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Unlike Argentina, Turkey’s crisis has been driven by its refusal to adhere to conventional monetary strategies, particularly concerning interest rate management. Erdoğan’s insistence on maintaining low interest rates, despite high inflation, has led to significant currency depreciation; the Turkish lira has lost over of its value against the dollar from 2018 to 2023.

Turkey’s debt dynamics, particularly its dependence on short-term foreign debt, have exacerbated this volatility. Turkish corporations and financial institutions, heavily indebted in foreign currency, face severe financial strain as the lira depreciates, making dollar-denominated debt more expensive to service. This high level of exposure to external financing has heightened Turkey’s vulnerability to global economic conditions, such as interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. It has increased the cost of borrowing for emerging markets.

Jeffrey Frankel, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, that Turkey’s reliance on foreign capital, paired with its unorthodox policy stance, has deterred investors. It has further devalued the currency and intensified inflation.

Policy shifts and economic reforms

Egypt’s rising external debt raises concerns about the government’s capacity to service it without continuous outside assistance. This debt burden puts downward pressure on the currency, as investors demand higher returns to offset the risks associated with holding Egyptian assets. Moreover, declining foreign exchange reserves have limited the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) ability to stabilize the currency, contributing to further depreciation. Countries like Argentina have encountered similar difficulties, with diminishing reserves constraining options for currency defense and increasing on the IMF.

The CBE’s recent shift to a more flexible exchange rate is intended to attract foreign investment and fulfill IMF requirements, allowing the EGP to fluctuate more freely. While a floating currency can provide stability over time, Egypt’s experience the risks associated with rapid depreciation. This phenomenon is also evident in Turkey’s recent currency challenges.

To counteract inflation, the CBE has raised interest rates, hoping to draw in foreign investment; however, this has not been sufficient to prevent the EGP’s decline. This underscores the need for comprehensive economic reforms to secure long-term stability.

Strategic economic reforms for Egypt

Ruchir Agarwal, a Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government (M-RCBG) research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, and Adnan Mazarei, a non-resident senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), that Egypt’s recurring economic crises, exacerbated by governance and policy shortcomings, require a fundamental shift in approach. They emphasize that Egypt has to address governance and policy deficiencies, military dominance and cronyism to implement necessary economic reforms and break its cycle of recurring crises, rather than relying on international financial bailouts.

To stabilize and attract foreign investment, Egypt should prioritize macroeconomic stability and regulatory reform using four steps. First, maintaining a flexible exchange rate will help reduce speculative pressure on the EGP, creating a more predictable environment for investors. Second, focusing on inflation control through targeted subsidies and supply chain improvements would further support this stability. Third, by adopting global standards in transparency and corporate governance, Egypt can build investor confidence; streamlining regulatory processes would make foreign investment more accessible. Finally, reducing the military’s role in the economy, curbing cronyism and enforcing anti-corruption measures could help establish a more equitable environment for private businesses.

The Egyptian conundrum: elite capital flight and economic stability

Egypt’s economic journey has frequently involved partnerships with the IMF to address persistent fiscal challenges and stabilize the macroeconomic framework. However, one of the most significant yet underexplored dynamics undermining Egypt’s fiscal stability is elite capital flight — the large-scale transfer of domestic wealth by political and economic elites to offshore financial centers. This practice has far-reaching consequences for economic development, governance and societal equity.

Egypt’s case exemplifies the challenges of elite capital flight. Over decades, economic and political elites have transferred vast sums of wealth to offshore havens, facilitated by weak anti-money laundering (AML) frameworks and global financial opacity. While exact figures are difficult to ascertain, estimates of the financial assets held abroad by Egyptian elites highlight the magnitude of this issue.

These outflows coincide with structural economic inefficiencies and governance gaps, leaving the state financially constrained. In turn, the government is often forced to implement austerity measures or seek external funding, amplifying socio-economic pressures.

Elite capital flight undermines economic stability and development through several interrelated mechanisms. It exacerbates socio-economic disparities. While elites secure their wealth abroad, the general population faces the consequences of reduced public spending and austerity measures. This creates a dual economic reality where the wealthy remain insulated from domestic economic pressures, while lower-income groups bear the brunt of fiscal challenges.

Elite capital flight is a longstanding feature of Egypt’s economic landscape, deeply rooted in governance inefficiencies and weak regulatory frameworks. Economic and political elites often perceive domestic instability, potential expropriation or shifts in policy as triggers for safeguarding wealth abroad. These dynamics are facilitated by global financial systems that accommodate opaque wealth transfers and shield assets from domestic scrutiny.

Egypt’s economic elite have historically diversified their financial portfolios, funneling resources into offshore financial centers such as Switzerland, the United Kingdom and other jurisdictions with favorable conditions for wealth concealment. This “insurance” mechanism not only provides security against domestic uncertainties but deprives the nation of critical resources that could otherwise bolster infrastructure, public services and social programs. As Andreas Kern, a Teaching Professor at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University, , “the ability to draw on the IMF creates perverse economic incentives so that a country’s elites can privatize economic gains by moving funds into offshore financial destinations before the arrival of the Fund.”

Egypt’s economic trajectory highlights the interplay between governance failures, elite capture and external financial interventions. Without addressing the systemic drivers of elite capital flight, external assistance risks perpetuating a cycle of dependency rather than fostering sustainable growth. As global scrutiny on financial transparency intensifies, Egypt’s experience offers valuable lessons for crafting more equitable and resilient economic policies.

Egypt’s next steps

To effectively implement and sustain the policy recommendations made in this piece, in addition to macroeconomics and government reform, Egypt must prioritize the development of expertise in AML and counter-financing of terrorism (CFT). This will require a skilled workforce across financial regulation, law enforcement and compliance to ensure that Egypt’s AML/CFT frameworks align with international standards while addressing the country’s unique economic challenges. Building this expertise will involve continuous training, technical assistance and collaboration with global organizations such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and IMF.

Elite capital flight also represents a significant barrier to Egypt’s economic development and stability. By diverting critical resources from the domestic economy, it exacerbates fiscal deficits, perpetuates inequality and undermines trust in governance. Addressing this issue requires a comprehensive approach that combines domestic reforms with international cooperation to foster a more equitable and resilient economic framework. For Egypt, tackling elite capital flight is not only a question of fiscal prudence but also of social and economic justice.

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Milei’s public appearance began as a commentator on different television . He promoted the protests against the mandatory isolation imposed during the pandemic, as he alleged that it restricted individual freedoms. Based on his popularity in social media, he was national deputy in the legislative elections of 2021 for his party “La Libertad Avanza” (Liberty Moves Forward). In 2023, with a strong erosion of the ruling party due to a dragging and poorly managed economic crisis, and an alliance with the conservative-right “Juntos por el Cambio” (Together for Change) coalition, he became President of the country.

Milei defines himself as an anarcho-capitalist and a disciple of the Austrian economic school. What does this mean? Contrary to global practices of economic protectionism, Milei proposes unrestricted market freedom. He also proposes it not only as a foreign trade policy but also as a domestic policy.

Based on Murray Rothbard’s , Milei considers the state an illicit association that appropriates taxpayers’ money to sustain the privileges of the “political caste.” He believes in the market as the “natural” regulator of life in society and, therefore, public ownership and administration of services as an aberration. For instance, he believes public education and public health should not exist. This philosophy vindicates the “Law of Talion,” or an “eye for an eye,” as a valid practice of justice.

From this perspective, he intends to position himself as one of the leaders of the global ultra-right that discusses “cultural Marxism.” This is the way in which they characterize progress for rights, women, sexual diversity, migrants and those excluded from the system in general. Milei also adopts a denialist position with respect to and the scientific evidence for it.

From political philosophy to government practice

During his tenures as an economics columnist and as a presidential candidate, Milei promised the dollarization of the economy and an end to inflation. It averaged 8.6% monthly in Argentina in 2023 until Milei took office.

As part of his economic policy, he has caused a devaluation of more than 100% of the local currency and embarked on a strong deregulation of economic activity, which implied a price increase for basic goods and services. Additionally, as administrator of the state’s resources, he slowed down investment in public works and cut at all functional levels.

These measures provoked a great redistribution of income from the working class to the sectors that live off the economic and financial income it produces, as well as big businessmen. They also created an economic recession that equals and in some sectors exceeds the levels reached during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In this context, the government celebrates that inflation has been reduced monthly since it took office (from 25.5% in December caused by the devaluation to 4.2% in May), and boasts of a fiscal surplus (which hides the country’s actual debt). But the purchasing power of the minimum salary (considering a total basic food basket) was 30% and poverty reached of the population in the first quarter of 2024 (with an increase of approximately 11% in the first three months of government). People expect an increase in the unemployment rate due to the magnitude of the recession and the layoffs that have already taken place.

This economic arrogance is spread from the executive power to the rest of the powers of the state, especially toward the legislature and the federal governments; such arrogance pressures and extorts the institutions of the state so that whatever decrees and laws the executive proposes have to be approved without discussion. Given the impossibility of such power to the executive, it had to negotiate with its political allies and give them ambassadorships in exchange for their support.

The official discourse and public policy persecute and target the freedom of the ; the institutions of national culture; those rights that guarantee the lives of women who have been ; those laws that promote non-discrimination in terms of and xenophobia and institutions such as public universities, and human rights organizations.

Milei’s foreign policy is torn between the attempt to obtain dollars to maintain its anti-inflationary policy and ideological positioning. For instance, it exaggerates positions against China but later renegotiates a . It the state of Israel from charges against the genocide Israel is perpetrating in Palestine, but always from behind the cloak of the Western empire.

How long will it last?

One of the most heard phrases in Argentina once Milei entered the presidential ballotage was, “He is not going to do everything he says.” This phrase served both to justify voting for him and to protect the voters emotionally from the disaster that would follow if he won the presidency. However, Milei is doing quite a lot of what he said.

The other most frequently heard phrase is, “How long will it last?” Although the politically correct answer is four years, as in every democratically elected government in Argentina since the reestablishment of democracy in 1983, the economic and social crises experienced do not leave room for such an accurate answer. Even less so with the application of policies that are so extremely detrimental to the majority.

If we look at his economic plan and review Argentina’s history, we can find similarities with two recent historical moments. The first is the government of Carlos Menem (which for Milei was the best in Argentina’s history) and the second is that of Fernando de la Rúa.

Menem’s government (1989–1999) applied structural changes at the economic level (neoliberalism). It had a boom moment (which allowed Menem to be reelected) by curbing inflation achieved by the exchange rate parity with the dollar. The beginning of the policies of privatizations of services and public goods, as well as of foreign indebtedness, sustained this. However, it resulted in the closing of many national companies and industries and an increase in unemployment that exceeded 20% at the end of his second term.

De la Rúa’s government (1999–2001) followed Menem’s policies. Although it entered power to carry out a “radical” change, it ended up in multiple debt renegotiations with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This resulted in strong fiscal adjustment programs and increasing poverty levels. De la Rúa ended his term declaring a state of siege, resigning and leaving the Government House by helicopter.

Milei has begun to follow Menem’s example. Within this framework, he has begun to implement an economic plan that reduces inflation and reactivates economic activity if he obtains new IMF loans, privatizes companies and obtains dollars to liquefy Argentina’s banking system. Such policies will have similar consequences in terms of economic activity, employment and poverty in a shorter period of time. Or, if he does not manage to access the necessary funds in dollars, he will have to rely on ever greater economic adjustment and repression with a government closer to that of de la Rúa. Helicopters should be on standby.

For six months, the streets of Buenos Aires and the central squares of all the provinces of the country have been the epicenter of constant against the government’s policies and laws. Among the government’s adherents, though, the situation continues to be justified under arguments such as, “We are in bad shape, but we are doing well,” “We have to let it govern,” and “Who did you want to vote for?” Those who still support Milei cling to the drop in the inflation rate. But the latest polls also reflect a in his positive image, especially in the country’s interior provinces where Milei’s presidential campaign received strong support.

[ produced this piece.]

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Possible overtones?

Invited to respond, Argentinean President Javier Milei and Vice President Victoria Villarruel shrugged and said Fernández was just being truthful. Aurélien Tchouaméni and several other players on the French national team are of Cameroonian descent. Ousmane Dembélé is of Senegalese, Mauritian and Malian descent.

Days later, football fans in Argentina were repeating the chant. Fernández was investigated by association football’s world governing organization, FIFA, which has prioritized the fight against racism in the sport. The players can be suspended for up to 12 matches if the chant is found to be racist.

Is it racist?

I asked a Spanish-speaking friend for a translation of the comments, and he confirmed the above is accurate. He reckoned the chant had racist “overtones,” meaning it implied that to be properly French, you had to be white. I accept there were overtones. I also accept that the verse was derogatory and insulting to France’s black players. But I am still not convinced this is racism. Then again, racism itself changes.

The myth of race

In 1950, UNESCO published a significant titled “The Race Question.” This report was one of the first major efforts to expose the scientific invalidity of race as a biological concept. It concluded that “for all practical purposes, ‘race’ is not so much a biological phenomenon as a social myth.”

Despite its mythic status, no one doubted the devilish concept’s potency. “Racism” referred to thoughts and theories predicated on the validity of “race” and the corresponding assumption that the human population was divided naturally into a hierarchy, with whites permanently at the top.

“Racialism,” on the other hand, described language or behavior that reflected those beliefs. So, racialism, or racial discrimination as it was often called, was obviously much more damaging to groups conceived as lower in the purported hierarchy. Anti-discrimination laws and policies were designed to manage racialism rather than educate people.

During the 1980s, the terms racism and racialism converged in academia, public discourse and policy discussions. “Racism” increasingly described both the belief in racial superiority and the resultant discriminatory behaviors. The focus shifted to recognizing that racist beliefs and actions were part of a larger, interconnected complex of injustice and subjugation.

Institutional racism

The term “institutional racism” was first used by Stokely Carmichael (later known as Kwame Ture) and Charles V. Hamilton in their influential Black Power: The Politics of Liberation. Over time, the term became closely associated with the UK’s report on the death of Stephen Lawrence, published in 1999. In this case, was defined as “the collective failure of an organization to provide an appropriate and professional service to people because of their color, culture or ethnic origin. It can be seen or detected in processes, attitudes and behavior which amount to discrimination through unwitting prejudice, ignorance, thoughtlessness and racist stereotyping which disadvantage minority ethnic people.”

According to the report, institutional racism is not only about overt acts of racism but also about the more subtle and systemic practices that lead to unequal treatment — what are now known as microaggressions. Institutional racism and plain racism were soon used interchangeably to mean widespread discrimination.

The parameters have shifted so that the concept of “race” is no longer germane. In 2018, for example, many people from felt they were discriminated against on the grounds of national identity. Under the UK’s , these concerns could be considered justified. The Welsh were a “protected group.” The defining feature of racism, in this conception, is not “race” but vulnerability to discrimination.��

The Boy Who Cried “Wolf”

The benefits of categorizing racism in this way are many. Groups that have been treated wrongfully or prejudicially, be that presently or historically, are protected by law and can use the emotively powerful claim of racism in their defense. Offenses motivated by a victim’s supposed ethnicity, nationality, religion, sexual orientation, disability or similar characteristics are now grouped collectively as hate crimes. The defining characteristic is the perpetrator’s intention, not the victim’s attributes. A claim of a racist attack on a cisgender, fully abled, while male heterosexual has merit.

But there are dangers, the most obvious one captured by the phrase “cry wolf.” The fable of the tricksy shepherd boy who playfully misleads people with false cries of, “Wolf!” is illuminating. When a wolf actually does appear, others are so used to the boy’s stunts that no one takes notice. Repeatedly claiming “racism” calls attention to an unpleasant and widespread presence, but may also devalue such claims. The enlargement of the concept to cover all manner of discrimination tends to trivialize racism in the form it once had.

Racism has disfigured America’s history from the 17th century and Europe’s from the 1950s. It has provoked slave uprisings, riots, protest marches and other forms of civil disobedience. Torture, mutilation and death have been its grimmest byproducts. To cluster these sins under the same rubric as microaggressions against the Welsh lessens their significance in the eyes of many.

Racism in the Fernández case

I am certainly not condoning the behavior of Fernández and his teammates. It was not just careless, but wrongheaded, pernicious, arguably defamatory and possibly malicious. France’s black players were subject to abuse on social media following their World Cup defeat to Argentina in 2022, so these kinds of irresponsible deeds can have consequences. But was it racist?

Fifty years ago, no. Thirty years ago, still no. In fact, in 1998, France won the FIFA World Cup with a multicultural team that included Zinedine Zidane, Patrick Vieira, Lilian Thuram and Marcel Desailly, among others. Had Fernández’s video been released then, it likely would have been ridiculed and dismissed as a case of “sour grapes.” But today we err on the side of assuming malignancy.

The impact of racism has been diluted by our eagerness to recognize it in any situation in which hatred of particular groups is involved. This is not a bad thing and in a great many instances, there has been a racist component buried among other sordid motivations. Yet the danger lies in spurious attributions. Some offenses, even hate crimes, are not impelled by spurious beliefs about race and should be treated as conceptually distinct.

None of this excuses Fernández et al. But perhaps we should laugh at their idiocy and childlike attempts to make fun rather than dignify them — which is what we do when we endow them with serious motives.

[Ellis Cashmore is the editor of]

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Massa was the Peronist, centrist candidate. On October 22, he the first round of presidential elections, as did his Union for the Fatherland coalition. He earned 36% of the votes while Milei, the candidate of the Liberty Advances coalition, secured 30%. Former Minister of Security Patricia Bullrich, from the center-right Together for Change coalition, came in third place with 23.8%.

The October vote included legislative elections as well. Approximately 50% of the lower house’s seats (127/257) and 33% of the upper house’s (24/72) were up for grabs. In the upper house, Massa’s Union for the Fatherland ten seats, Milei’s Liberty Advances obtained eight, and Bullrich’s Together for Change claimed four. Similarly, in the lower house, Massa’s coalition won the most seats, 58 altogether, but Milei’s coalition followed with 35 and Bullrich’s coalition got 32.

With these numbers, the center-right and Peronist coalitions lost several seats to the ultra-right. Union for the Fatherland could not secure the majority in both congressional chambers. However, it remains the coalition with the most seats in the lower house and senate. It has deputies in the former and senators in the latter.

Milei is a disruptive outsider who ran his campaign on unrealistic ideas. He often says that his gives him political advice and that he is God’s emissary. He uses strong language in his political speeches, cursing rivals and even .

Unlike the anti-establishment Milei, Massa kept a conciliatory image. Nonetheless, he was frequently portrayed as an unreliable politician whose political commitments were highly opportunistic. For example, he started his political career in anti-Peronist groups, though he eventually became a Peronist. He served as chief of staff for the leftist President Cristina Kirchner from 2008–2009, despite his hostility toward her. Needless to say, his positions and actions have been inconsistent.

Argentina is following the populist political path towards democratic decline from which it will be difficult to change course. This fate was likely before the final election, and the results have only confirmed the trend.

How the Peronists lost the race

From his position in the ruling Peronist party, Massa used the establishment to mobilize voters. Participation was low with a turnout of around 74%. This is the lowest participation in a presidential election since Argentina returned to democracy in 1983. Providing incentives might have helped Massa win the presidency, as he relied on a large group of Peronist voters that feared an ultra-right government.

One of Massa’s strategies was increasing public spending to win over more votes. Even though this strategy was likely to worsen an already ailing economy — triple-digit inflation is a serious problem — Argentinean voters have a history of rewarding extravagant governments. On the other hand, Milei’s appeal for a considerable number of Argentineans rested on his promise to remove the state from public life.

Despite their radically different visions and proposals on government, both candidates have one commonality: They are both anti-Kirchnerists.

Kirchnerism is a tendency within the establishment Peronist Party. Since the Peronist Party’s founding in 1949, it has become Argentina’s political motor. The party was born from the populist-left mass movement led by Juan Perón (who served three presidential terms from 1946–55 and 1973–74). Recent Peronist politics has been dominated by Presidents Néstor Kirchner (2003–2007) and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007–2015). The Kirchners were famous for their aggressive redistribution policies and for nationalizing businesses. However, they are also connected to economic unorthodoxy and corruption scandals.

Under the Kirchners’ leadership, Argentina’s economic growth has been unstable. This is because the government chose to halt its international debt payment. This macroeconomic mismanagement produced massive inflation and has been responsible for, among other effects, this year’s sharp rise in poverty. More than of Argentineans live below the poverty line.

Contemporary Argentinean politics are defined by the effort to preserve a basic but substantial welfare system, and to reimagine a route for sustainable economic growth. Over the past 20 years, Argentina has achieved these objectives but turned into a nation prone to crises. This is especially true following the peso’s in 2001, which resulted in a foreign debt default payment.

So, the time was ripe for an anti-Kircherist faction to arise within Peronism. Massa represented this tendency. Yet Kirchnerism also created the possibility for a far-right candidate to exploit voter resentment. Until recently, Argentina was immune to ultra-right ideas, but now Milei has tapped into that potential.

Milei’s rise as a popular candidate can be attributed to two factors: an ongoing economic crisis and rampant corruption. Argentina’s inflation rate has soared in the last two years and shows no sign of stopping. There are significant social ramifications to this severe economic situation. As for corruption, former president and current vice president Cristina Kirchner has been involved in several corruption probes. She was even to six years in prison in one of them. Kirchner’s scandals damaged the public’s faith in her and her fading administration.

How the voting played out on November 19

On November 19, voters decided whether the establishment or anti-establishment strain of anti-Kirchnerism would triumph.

Despite Massa’s victory in the first round, most polls suggested Milei would win the electoral round. The predictions, however, were inconsistent. One indicated that Massa had 45.4% of the while Milei had 43.1%. In a different , Milei led with 48.5% support and Massa appeared behind with 44.7%. Unpredictability was a dominant pattern in this year’s race.

Ultimately, the election was not decided by voters who chose Massa or Milei, but by those who voted differently. Many voters supported Patricia Bullrich, Juan Schiaretti and Myriam Bregmant. Some annulled their votes altogether. There are 9.5 million people who these options, most of whom were concentrated in the province and city of Buenos Aires, as well as the Cordoba province.

One of Milei’s key assets for winning the race was Bullrich. Only a few days after the first round ended, Bullrich declared her support for Milei, boosting his candidacy considerably. An opinion shows that 47% of her voters migrated to Milei; only 9% switched to Massa.

Another candidate who transferred most of his votes to Milei is Schiaretti, who obtained 6.73% of the votes in the first round. He ran his campaign defending the Argentinean judicial system, which was under attack as the corruption probes against Cristina Kirshner advanced. Based on the previously mentioned poll, approximately of Schiaretti’s votes were transferred to Milei while 26% went to Massa.

The substantial shift of votes from the center-right parties to Milei may relate to one simple reason: His and Bullrich’s voters share an ideological position on the state’s economic role and social-moral concerns. One shows that 71% of Bullrich’s backers support the use of private companies to provide services, and 73% of Milei’s agree.

But the parties were not the only factors in the election. In a federal democracy like Argentina, political power is tied to provincial politics. As such, provincial dynamics and preferences matter for the presidential elections. 

In the first round, Milei won in ten districts. The province of San Luis yielded him the highest proportion of votes, with almost of the ballot. Nevertheless, Milei received most of his votes — approximately 2.5 — from the city and province of Buenos Aires. Córdoba, Milei’s electoral stronghold, yielded his second-highest vote count from any district. His performance in Santa Cruz — 36.3%, only 1.5% less than Massa — is remarkable, as that province is the third-largest electoral college in the country and has been a Peronist powerhouse.

In the second round, Milei won in 21 of the 23 districts, showing an impressive ability to convert votes across the country. Although he lost in the biggest electoral district, the province of Buenos Aires, he won in districts with great electoral weight. These included Córdoba, Santa Fé, the Federal Capital and Mendonza.

Massa performed better in the first round than the second round and August’s primary elections. While he won only three provinces in the second round, he won in 13 of the 24 districts in the first round. His most significant territorial win came from the province of Santiago del Estero. But Buenos Aires, both the province and the city, provided most of Massa’s votes.

Argentina’s polarized, uncertain future

Now, the dust of the election campaign has settled and Milei is the victor. But the air is still not clear enough to see very far ahead.

One thing that is certain is that Argentina’s democratic decline is continuing, slowly but steadily. Beyond the polarization seen in the heated campaign rhetoric and dynamics, the 2023 elections brought about important changes to Argentina’s political environment. The far-right rose and gained a significant number of congressional seats, positioning them as a relevant force in the chamber. 

The governability of Argentina was at stake this election season. Milei has won the presidency, but he cannot govern alone. An Argentinean president needs the support of both provincial governors and of the legislature to push policies through. Milei lacks the political and technical ability to carry out his dubious proposals, including policies of dollarization and dismantling the central bank. Still, Massa’s promises of expanding the welfare state would also have been difficult to implement, given how persistently insolvent Argentina is.

Milei has taken drastic measures since taking office. He has the Argentinean peso by 50% and 5,000 public employees. But these measures were taken by executive decree, without the need for legislative intervention. On December 27, Milei a package of laws that would give the president legislative powers to freely privatize state companies, eliminate taxes, change electoral laws and reduce public pensions, among other measures.

It remains to be seen whether Milei will be successful in pushing the legislation through. Already, unions are organizing and calling for a in opposition to Milei’s proposals. Undoubtedly, there will be changes in Argentina. But we still do not know how significant they will be or how fast they will occur.

[ edited this piece.]

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A president without a party

Now comes the hard part. Milei is no longer campaigning. He has to govern. His party, La Libertad Avanza, is a relatively small organization, which is based on Milei’s personal popularity. Milei’s party holds only 30 out of 257 seats in the lower house of the legislature and only seven out of 72 in the upper house.

As in other federal systems, Argentina’s political system gives subnational levels of government significant power. For example, provincial governors in Argentina select candidates for many federal government positions. Milei does not have an established party apparatus in the provinces to turn to and does not have many loyalists in the corridors of power in Buenos Aires. Furthermore, he has openly disparaged current legislators and political leaders for being corrupt members of a “caste system.” Unless Milei creates strong coalitions and political ties with provincial governors, Milei will be unable to push through his agenda. 

Milei is more likely to lean toward the right-wing parties of Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change) coalition, or Juntos, rather than the left-leaning Peronists. Many of his voters in the runoff came from such right-wing parties. However, these necessary coalitions would require financial leverage. This goes directly against his platform of reducing the size of the state and public spending.

Moving away from his platform may impact his voters. Milei’s initial voters are primarily male, conservative, and young — too young to have experienced the Argentine military . In fact, Milei had made waves during the campaign by questioning the official statistics on the dictatorship’s death toll. Unlike the earlier generation, disillusioned young voters are not bothered by these statements and many have more authoritarian tendencies themselves. They support Milei because he has rejected the political “caste” and seems determined to bring about economic change. Negotiating with this “caste” and giving money to governors might upset the voters who want him to clean the Augean stables of Argentine politics.

Milei faces another risk of voter alienation. Although he is more closely affiliated with right-wing parties, his salacious sexual behavior and lack of Christian beliefs do not go down well with Catholics who revere Argentinean Pope Francis as well as devout Evangelicals. In particular, Patricia Bullrich’s supporters might desert him. Her party conservative Juntos party supported Milei in the second round and helped him get to the top job in the country.

Reforms will not be easy

Milei has popular support but no institutional support. So, making the changes he has promised will be difficult. Argentina no longer suffers from the hyperinflation of the 1980s. Yet it is deep in debt and inflation is still an alarming , unemployment is high and an estimated suffer hunger.��

Argentina is a fertile country with low military spending. Yet its high debt has led to a cycle of crisis and poverty. Much of the taxes go toward repaying debts to private lenders, foreign banks and the International Monetary Fund. A huge chunk also goes to education, social systems and healthcare. Much money is simply stolen. Argentina is corrupt and the political “caste” pockets a lot of the country’s cash.

To balance the books, Milei could cut social spending. However, people do not tend to support such cuts. During the hot December month, any cuts or threatened cuts can lead to protests and anarchy.

Milei has promised to close the central bank, adopt the US dollar and halve the number of political ministries. Since winning the elections, he has been walking back his radical promises. Milei has appointed those with opposing priorities to important positions. He has even nominated individuals who are part of the “caste” to be his colleagues. Maybe, President Milei may turn out to be more pragmatic than Candidate Milei. Even so, reforms will prove difficult.

Both Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro were colorful characters but found success as presidents in the US and Brazil. Neither was as ideological on economic policy as Milei. Unlike Trump or Bolsonaro, Milei does not believe in a large state. In fact, he has libertarian anarchist ideas of running the state.

Milei’s support base is not cohesive. Religious Argentines do not support him. Nor does the military. The “caste” will oppose any rollback of the state. Turkeys never vote for Thanksgiving. 

Yet there may be a silver lining. The right-wing Juntos and the left-leaning Peronists could work together to overcome Argentina’s dire economic crisis as they once did in the past. Milei could do well to laser focus on the economy.

[ wrote the first draft of this piece.]

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Now, 23.6% might not sound like a lot if you are an American. In a two-party system like that of the US, the winning candidate generally takes more than 50% of the vote. On the other hand, the Netherlands has a multiparty system. No less than 15 different parties won seats in the Dutch parliament this year. So, for the PVV to wrest nearly one-quarter of the seats is a big deal.

For most political analysts, Wilders’s victory came as a huge surprise. It represents a sudden turn of Dutch politics to the hard right. Although his victory is surprising, Wilders is no newcomer to politics. The 60-year-old is the longest-serving member of the Dutch parliament. He first got elected in 1998 as a member of the center-right Liberals. Wilders quit that party in 2004 over what he considered Liberals’ softness towards Islam and founded the PVV in 2006.

Wilders is anti-immigration and anti-Muslim. But his profile is not that of a stereotypical, narrow-minded bigot. Wilders is from Venlo, a small city in the conservative, mostly Catholic province of Limburg. He was raised a Catholic himself, making him a religious minority in the historically Protestant Netherlands. Wilders has Indonesian ancestry on his mother’s side. He spent two years on a kibbutz, a collective farm, in Israel. And he married a Hungarian immigrant. So you could hardly say that Wilders has no appreciation for multiculturalism.

But Wilders has taken a strong tack against the Dutch Muslim community. In his view, Muslims have failed to assimilate into Dutch society. For example, 68.76% of Dutch Turks voted for the Islamist Turkish presidential candidate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — a far higher percentage than among Turks in Turkey. Such voting gives credence to Wilders’s argument that Dutch Muslims are not absorbing liberal European values.

In fact, Dutch voters are worried about Muslim ghettos as breeding grounds for crime and extremism. The 2002 assassination of anti-Muslim politician Pim Fortuyn and the 2004 assassination of filmmaker Theo van Gogh by a Dutch Moroccan youth are still fresh in their memories. So, they have turned to Wilders.

Demographic shifts lead to tensions across the West

The fears and frustrations that Dutch voters are experiencing are real. They are shared by voters across Western Europe and North America. Demographic shifts are bringing clashes of fundamental values between immigrants and natives. But while the right is perceiving a real problem, the solution that it presents is a horrible one. Singling out an ethnic group as the problem may be a prelude to violence. A mixture of legitimate concern and populist racism is what is driving the right today.

A pattern common to all human societies is now playing out in Europe. Research in sociology tells us that whenever about 10% of the population becomes “other,” there is a hostile reaction. No matter how tolerant a society, things change when it begins to feel threatened. Before the US Civil War, northerners thought of themselves as tolerant, abolitionist Republicans. After the war, black freedmen started to fill the North, and racism flared up. The nativist Know-Nothings reacted to black and Irish newcomers as if they represented the collapse of civilization.

Now, France and Germany have even more immigrants than the US does. The pattern is playing out across Europe. Declining birth rates create a shrinking economy. This creates a demand for immigrant labor. These immigrants bring their own religion and values. They also compete with natives for resources and jobs within the shrinking economy. Economic pressures exacerbate cultural ones, and sooner or later violence breaks out.

A question of religion is a question about the very identity or existence of a society. Two men might duel over a woman, but entire societies go to war over religion. Both France and Germany have a long history of religious civil wars and so does the rest of Europe.

European nations may not be Christian as they once were. But they are strongly attached to basic values like secularism, liberalism and constitutionalism. Now, Muslims live across Europe. Their white neighbors have doubts whether Muslim loyalties lie with the constitutional order or sharia law. Conversely, Muslim Europeans deeply resent having their loyalties questioned. Tensions continue to build.

Javier Milei claims victory in Argentina

The far right is on the rise in other parts of the world. Religion is not always the cause though. In Argentina, economic collapse has fueled the rise of the far right.

About 100 years ago, Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world. Now, it is a basket case. The International Monetary Fund has lent it $44 billion, a third of the fund’s entire debt portfolio. This dwarfs the aid it lent to Pakistan. Argentina’s annual inflation is a heart-stopping 185%. Public corruption is endemic, employment low and poverty high.

Desperate for a change, Argentineans have elected the outsider libertarian candidate Javier Milei. A devotee of Milton Friedman, Milei is rabidly anti-Keynesian. He wants to dismantle many government ministries and make the US dollar Argentina’s official currency.

But it’s not just his economic policies that are oddball. Milei enjoys cosplay, he’s a self-proclaimed tantric sex expert, and he has four cloned mastiffs of his old dead one. He admits to consulting his lovely dogs when he needs to make major decisions. In a Catholic country, Milei has flirted with conversion to Judaism, and he has railed against Pope Francis. Note that the pope is the first Argentine to occupy this holy position and is popular in the country. Milei has called Francis a “communist turd” and a “piece of shit.” In brief, Milei seems nuts.

Once the home of the socialist Eva Perón — herself quite a celebrity populist — Argentina has now swung all the way in the opposite direction.

[ wrote the first draft of this piece.]

The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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Compared to the last 15 years, two novelties stood out in this election: The demand for a political and economic change is large, and the traditional division between — a left-wing populist movement — and anti-Kirchnerism seems to have faded.

Since 2003, President Néstor Kirchner (2003–2007) and his wife and successor, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007–2015) have promoted a “neo-developmentalist” economic model, in which the state plays an active, paternalistic role in fostering economic growth. Both of them represented the Peronist movement, which has been the dominant political force in Argentina since the 1980s. In the last four presidential elections, the most successful political formulas were those that proposed to maintain, deepen or return to the roots of the neo-developmentalism.

Both of the candidates that made it to the runoff, however, proposed more market-oriented economic models. Massa, who is also a Peronist, a development project centered on production and the coordination of labor, capital and the state. In contrast to this moderate proposal, the libertarian Milei promotes a drastic reduction of the state and the implementation of a market economy in all spaces of social life. He wants to privatize broad swathes of Argentinean life, from health to education, and even calls for liberalizing trade in .

The last four presidential elections were organized around the cleavage between Kirchnerism and anti-Kirchnerism, i.e. between left-wing populists and their opponents. Today such opposition is attenuated. Massa called for national unity.

Milei, instead, created his own original rift, one between the “caste” of elites and those excluded by them. Milei took the concept of caste from the Spanish leftist movement Podemos and redefined from a libertarian perspective. It refers to a vague group that includes corrupt politicians, rent-seeking businessmen, trade unionists who betray the workers they represent, journalists and professionals (especially economists, lawyers and pollsters) who act as accomplices of the politicians and “give an intellectual patina to the theft of the State.” On the other side are the “good people.” In Milei’s worldview, these are individuals who compete in the market by offering quality goods and services at a better price, without resorting to traps or shortcuts.

A tired society wants Milei’s markets

Argentineans were divided between two proposals. The first was Massa’s plan to move towards a government of national unity. It appealed to the best men and women of all political spaces that respect democracy, laying the foundations for an inclusive and stable development model that revolved around production and employment.

The second proposal was Milei’s reset, unraveling the Argentinean welfare state. It was a dramatic reaction from the people’s annoyance with repeatedly unfulfilled promises of economic prosperity. Milei’s plan is to replace it, by consensus or force, with a dogmatic market society that turns every type of social relationship into a market transaction. American economist Gary Becker would be proud.

Milei personifies the people’s tiredness with a system that shows a serious imbalance between proclaimed and effectively guaranteed rights. He became the political leader that a part of society had been wanting for a while. A society unenthused by traditional electoral options, socially fragmented and angry with the political-economic system found its leader.

Part of Milei’s success is explained by his ability to synthesize that diversity of feelings in his own speech and person. His approach exalts individual freedoms and capabilities while denying collective solutions, mainly the state. It is an entrepreneurial ideology that looks for infinite markets between individuals, algorithms and digital technologies that make transactions efficient. It places no restrictions above and below to moderate wealth concentration or support the less fortunate. The sky’s the limit … or perhaps Hell is.

Solid support, shaky statements

Milei wields a (and ) chainsaw. With it, he intends to viciously public spending, suppress the Central Bank and end the impoverishing political caste and its promise of dollarization. This goal has generated sympathies among informal workers and liberal sectors that identify inflation as a result of the fiscal deficit and irresponsible monetary issuance.

However, Milei’s other remarks have put many sectors of Argentinean society on alert. He has firmly avoided highlighting the value of democracy. Milei seemingly has an experimental laboratory vision of society. He has made worrying statements about the free sale of human organs and children. He has to Pope Francis, the first Argentinean to hold the office, as a “son of a bitch preaching communism” and “the representative of the evil one on Earth.” His approach to foreign policy is anachronistic and includes cutting diplomatic relations with Brazil and China — Argentina’s two main trading partners — for having communist leaders. These ideas are frightening, to say the least.

Despite the economy’s poor performance, it was not clear that Milei was destined to win. In the first round of voting, Massa him by more than 6 percentage points, thanks to greater citizen participation. To improve his chances for the runoff, Milei handed over the management of his campaign to Mauricio Macri of the center-right Juntos por el Cambio coalition. Macri was president from 2015 to 2019, but could not plausibly run again due to the terrible memory he left among workers and entrepreneurs.

After the first round of voting, Juntos por el Cambio’s candidate, Patricia Bullrich, was eliminated. With his own coalition therefore out of the electoral race, Macri departed from his coalition and outlined a more radical pro-market ideological line. Evidently, his choice bore fruit.

Argentinean sociologist Christian Ferrer that Argentina “is a sentimentally anti-capitalist but pragmatically hyper-consumerist country.” The latter trait has triumphed in this election. Society has chosen to pursue Milei’s uncertain market utopia, which he guarantees will demand sacrifice. The question remains: Will this sacrifice ultimately be worthwhile?

[ edited this piece.]

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�մǻ岹��’s Weekly Devil’s Dictionary definition:

Economic interests:

According to the belief system that sustained a world order that defined international politics for centuries prior to 2023, the unique motivating factor driving democratic elections and democratic decision-making.

Contextual note

To achieve even a modicum of stability, every civilization at every moment of its history must find a way of imposing a system of fundamental beliefs about social and economic relationships that are so widely shared they are beyond debate. No member of the civilization can dare to question them in public, not because they will be punished for doing so but because they simply will not be understood. Religions have traditionally played the role, offering instruction and guidance on a wide range of behaviors. But so have educational institutions alongside oral traditions, embodied in legends, literature and, perhaps most powerfully, proverbs.

The advent of modern democracy, which populations in the West now assume to be a universal norm, changed the way the persistence of value systems could be perceived. The law, established through the agency of elected representatives, superseded tradition and religious teaching, without abolishing either. Proverbial wisdom disappeared from daily language. The nation-state, as the dominant source of authority, encouraged theoretically shared values, such as “liberté, égalité, fraternité” in France or “liberty and justice for all” in the US. Separation of church and state became accepted as a norm, which meant that a variety of value systems regulating other than civic forms of behavior could coexist without interfering with a sense of the community’s unity.

Given the multiplicity of loyalties that different groups of people may intimately feel, the stability of such systems is never ensured. For most of the past century, national identity — the belief that the political system equitably embraced the interests of the population and recognized the pre-eminence of a majority that made a serious effort to tolerate minorities — proved to be a largely sufficient factor of cohesion. Tensions could arise on the part of impatient minorities, aware of their diminished rights or unequal treatment, but the idea that the nation’s institutions could find ways of reducing those tensions through democratic debate permitted national communities to avoid fragmentation and generalized civil unrest.

This relatively stable situation within nations has been compromised in recent decades by a major shift in the way nations interact. The trend towards globalization over the past half-century has meant that the quest for a single common denominator acceptable to all nations and all cultures had to be found. In a world marked by the diversity of cultures, this was not an easy task. But for a short while the global community seemed to have found a solution.

The solution was born from the two powerful historical forces that set the tone for world affairs in the second half of the 20th century. The first was the domination of the US dollar as the global reserve currency; the second was the frenetic development of increasingly sophisticated communication technology. The dollar’s domination came into being as the direct result of the chaos the industrial world outside the US found itself in at the end of World War II. The dollar’s dominant role served to fund the militarization of the US economy. This in turn led to the extremely rapid development of new generations of technology, destined first for military purposes before being shared, for profit, with the expanding consumer marketplace.

At the end of the 20th century, the world seemed to have reached a certain point of stability. It wasn’t utopia, but the nations of the world appeared to be confident in a bright future. Economic prospects looked good as trade was burgeoning and technology spreading across the face of the globe.

We are now witnessing the end of that period. Future historians may see 2023 as a major turning point in the history of the world. Argentina’s election provides a small but significant example of that shift. And the perception of economic interest in our decision-making will constitute a major factor in that change.

Historical note

Until somewhere around 1980, as the Cold War was drawing to a close, the integrity of the internal value systems of nation-states remained the major source of internal stability for nations across the globe. But three major sources of instability between value systems were still present. The first was the idea at the core of the Cold War that capitalism and communism were incompatible and irreconcilable within any democratic framework. The second was religion in those nations where religion could still be the major factor in people’s sense of identity. The third was ethnicity in a post-colonial world.

Nevertheless, for a short while, a solution appeared to emerge. The powerful symbolism conveyed by the Soviet Union’s collapse made it possible to put forward and celebrate a unique common denominator shared by populations conditioned to interiorize the culture and value system of their respective governments, whether capitalist or communist. The name of that new universal value was quite simply economic interest.

The notion was provided by the tradition of capitalist theory dating back to the 18th century, a moment in European history in which the diversity within the Christian religion, having produced nearly two centuries of war and permanent tension, led to the marginalization of the moral authority of churches within the body politic. This was true even of nations that retained a clearly dominant church, whether Catholic or Protestant.

As economic theory took over some of the tasks churches had once assumed, alongside the new religion of capitalism and in reaction to it, socialist thinkers emerged, eventually spawning the materialist religion that came to be known as Marxism. Two value systems in the West entered into a rivalry that exists to this day, despite all kinds of transformations.

Capitalist culture elevates individualistic competition to the status of a behavioral ideal. Communist culture, as elaborated by Karl Marx, places collective cooperation and the self-effacement of the individual at the summit of its moral system.

Finding common ground between these two worldviews, which battled during most of the 20th century, might have seemed as challenging as squaring a circle. But, miraculously, a new principle emerged that everyone ended up embracing. From Democratic President Bill Clinton to Communist Chairman Deng Xiaoping, the idea began to dominate that economic interest can serve as the foundation of human morality. On the capitalist side, the economic interest of each competing individual provided the model. On the communist side, nations captained by visionary leaders were empowered to define that interest.

Globalization consisted not just of connecting supply chains and multiplying the means of communication across nations, linguistic and ideological borders. It also meant adopting this new belief in what united humanity: alignment with perceived economic interest.

How did that play out? The value of anything became synonymous with its price … in US dollars, of course. The sense that anything we as consumers were invited to consume was attached to a particular culture, region or people began to fade as standardization became the key to efficiency.

All seemed to be well for nearly a decade, but then cracks in the system began to appear as the world discovered that economic interest does not solve all problems. 9/11 changed the mood completely. Though the trouble initially arose from a religious tradition heavily distorted by political motivation related to “historical interest” rather than economic interest, it reflected an uncomfortable idea that had been proffered two millennia earlier as a Christian truth: “Man does not live by bread alone.”

�մǻ岹��’s pundits, analyzing democratic elections, invariably fall back on the wisdom of Bill Clinton’s adviser, James Carville: “It’s the economy, stupid.” That still holds generally true. But as Argentina has shown us, “sometimes it ain’t.”

*[In the age of Oscar Wilde and Mark Twain, another American wit, the journalist Ambrose Bierce produced a series of satirical definitions of commonly used terms, throwing light on their hidden meanings in real discourse. Bierce eventually collected and published them as a book, The Devil’s Dictionary, in 1911. We have shamelessly appropriated his title in the interest of continuing his wholesome pedagogical effort to enlighten generations of readers of the news. Read more of 51�Թ� Devil’s Dictionary.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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Two distinct political courses and profiles

Many thought that Massa’s electoral results would have been compromised by the country’s economic challenges like  and constant . Contrary to what these detractors believed, voters appear to have appreciated Massa’s leadership during these troubled times. Massa’s  to leave a comfortable position as Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies for the challenging post of Minister of Economy might have seemed like a political gamble, but Argentinians rewarded his grit.

In addition, the strong relationships that Massa has cultivated with key high-level officials in the United States and international financial institutions represent a pivotal asset, as this will help him to attract trade and foreign investment in the country. 

On the other hand, there is Milei, the self-described “anarcho-capitalist.” Milei generated significant media buzz when he led in the  in August. The unorthodox policies that he has proposed, including the central bank, dollarizing the economy and government spending have resonated with a portion of the electorate that is disillusioned by the current status quo.

The need for stability

It is understandable that some voters are crying out for change. However, Argentina needs to navigate this transformative period with finesse and steady leadership to ensure that its international reputation remains intact. The need of the hour is to reassure markets and foreign investors that Argentina will have predictable policies. Radical policies and populist fervor are rarely, if ever, the answer to economic challenges. They could spook investors who do not want to put their money into an unstable environment.

As outgoing President Alberto Fernández put it to me in our meeting in Buenos Aires last December, at a time of turmoil and global competition between great powers, countries like Argentina find themselves in a tough spot. The nation, while politically appealing, has seen only limited direct and indirect US investments. This is a recurrent challenge that Washington must address, especially when other global players, such as China and Russia, are assertively courting the region.

US President Joe Biden recognizes Argentina’s potential, and he the importance of economic integration between the two countries during the March 2023 meeting with Fernández at the White House. With Argentina’s abundance of energy resources, a skilled workforce and growth opportunities in pivotal sectors like , Biden emphasized that US interest should clearly extend beyond mere rhetoric. In fact, opportunities for cooperation between the United States and Argentina are plenty and straightforward — from tackling Latin American migration challenges and addressing refugee concerns (a top issue for Washington), as Argentina did with Venezuelan refugees, to fostering economic engagements in sectors such as hi-tech, green energy and natural resources.

Furthermore, Argentina has aligned itself in the international arena with the US and the broader Western world in multiple ways. For instance, it has  Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and, just recently, offered a strong  of Hamas’ terrorist actions against Israeli civilians. At a time of increasing complexity on the global stage, the importance of this positioning should not be taken for granted.

That is why the United States and other international allies and partners of Argentina are paying attention. Massa has shown policy clarity and has a valuable track record in advocating for closer ties with the United States, Israel and other Western partners. Conversely, Milei represents a big political unknown, which does not bode well with the current state of global affairs.

The November 19 presidential runoff offers a unique opportunity for Argentina to solidify its position. Through asserting its regional influence and fostering stronger ties with the US, Argentina has a chance to redefine its regional and global standing and unlock the potential that many have long believed in. That’s the challenge that the next president will face: harnessing this moment of change to reshape both the near-term and long-term fortunes of the nation.

[ edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

Who Will Win Argentina’s Presidency After 28 Years Of Peronism?

How Argentina Can Rebuild Its Economy

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This is Argentina’s tenth consecutive democratic presidential election. 2023 marks the 40th anniversary of the election of President Raúl Alfonsín (1983–1989), the first to be elected since Argentina’s transition to democracy. Prior to this, Argentina had been under a military dictatorship (1976-1983).

The past 40 years have been the longest period of uninterrupted democratic life in the history of Argentina. to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index’s “Argentina Country Report 2022,” commitment to democratic institutions has persisted over the years, despite some weaknesses in terms of checks and balances.

However, the prospects look gloomy in what should be a year of civic celebration. The economy is in a pitiful condition, and voters are turning to Milei, an unstable personality with extreme views. Many Argentineans are losing faith in established political options and desperate to the point of gambling on a potentially dangerous candidate. 

Inflation, radical cuts and the rise of populism

Elections are taking place within a serious economic context. Analysts polled by Argentina’s central bank expect inflation to be a whopping this year. The poverty rate rose above in the first half of 2023. Argentina is unable to stabilize its own currency in the long run or to eradicate the pernicious impact that inflation has on the less-advantaged sectors of society.

These failings are obscuring the achievements of a young democracy that set a global example on other fronts. In the early 1980s, Argentina held remarkable of military officers for crimes against humanity committed during the military dictatorship.

It is not surprising, however, that voters are mainly concerned with the economy. So, disenchantment with politics and politicians has brought an anti-establishment candidate to the fore, Javier Milei. He voiced the frustration of millions of Argentineans with his extravagant style and radical rhetoric. Milei rails against exactly what voters are fed up with: inflation and politicians.

Two paradoxical outcomes of the first round

The first round of voting returned some paradoxical outcomes. The most obvious is that the Minister of Economy came in first place while the economy was in ruins.

To understand this, one needs to consider that many factions fall under the great umbrella of Peronism. Massa has made the effort to stress that he does not belong to the discredited faction of Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. He has tried to give the impression that his government will be a new start. Many voters find this credible because Peronism has shown itself capable of dramatic change in the past. It swung from the center-right governments of Carlos Menem in the 1990s to the center-left governments of first Néstor Kirchner and then Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the 2000s. In other words, their leadership knows how to accommodate itself to the challenges of the time.

In addition, the prevalence of Peronist political machinery in the densely populated Buenos Aires province cannot be underestimated. Nearly 40% of Argentineans live here. Peronism has deep political roots in the province. In fact, Axel Kicillof, the Peronist governor of Buenos Aires, won reelection on October 22 — despite serious corruption scandals exploding in the province a short time before the election. 

Another paradox is the failure of the opposition to beat the incumbent party. The majority of the population (54%) opted for the two main opposition alternatives, but Massa came out on top in the first round.

Why did this happen? The established center-right opposition, Juntos por el Cambio, chose a right-wing candidacy, Patricia Bullrich, in the primary elections. This sidelined the most progressive and moderate voices within the party. In the end, Juntos’s market-oriented policy offer was outdone in the eyes of voters by Milei’s far-right economic agenda and aggressive style. So, right-wing voters split between Bullrich and Milei.

Whatever the outcome, the outlook is not promising

Milei is an uncertain and risky option for the economy, given his extreme and controversial policy proposals. He proposes a libertarian economic program with radical cuts in expenses and taxes as well as extensive deregulation and privatization. His plan to stabilize the economy involves switching Argentinean currency over to the US dollar and closing the central bank.

But the problem goes even further than economic policy. Milei proposes to revise the until-now-unquestioned pillar of Argentine democracy — namely, the military policy based on the historical trials for crimes against humanity. He has that the number of those killed by the dictatorship is greatly exaggerated. Milei threatens to overturn other long-established policy achievements, such as public health and education, as well as recent ones, such as women’s right to safe abortion.��

In addition, Milei’s new party has no more than a handful of legislators in each congressional chamber and no provincial governors. In a federal system like Argentina’s, it is hard to imagine Milei could successfully push through a program of radical change without support in the provincial governments, let alone the national legislature. Milei might get partial support from Juntos since he has recently shown openness to rapprochement with the center-right. However, the prospect of collaborating with Milei has already created deep divisions within Juntos. So, institutional conflict and deadlock will be the likely result of a Milei presidency.

If Massa, on the other hand, could claim victory and unite his party, he would enjoy significant institutional resources at both the national and provincial levels. However, he would still need to take unpopular measures given the difficult economic situation.

Either way, stormy skies lie on the Argentine horizon.

[ edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

Who Will Win Argentina’s Presidency After 28 Years Of Peronism?

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Like most nations in the Americas, Argentina is a presidential republic. In this form of government, the president is both the head of state and the head of government. So, this person shapes the country’s policy for the duration of the presidential term. Just like in the US, the Argentinean president’s term lasts four years.

Like the US, Argentina has a federal system, which gives its 24 states considerable autonomy. The president simply cannot dictate policy to the state governors. Indeed, presidents need the support of state governors who have greater influence in national politics than their American counterparts.

Unlike the US, Argentina has no electoral college, and the president is elected by popular vote. This year, the first round of voting was held on October 22. No candidate won an absolute majority. So, the two front-runners will face off in a runoff election on November 19.

Who are the candidates and the parties?

The two candidates are Sergio Massa of the center-left alliance Union for the Homeland and Javier Milei of the right-wing party Liberty Advances. Massa won 36% and Milei 30% in the first round of voting.

Milei is a disruptive, anti-establishment candidate. A self-described anarcho-capitalist, he proposes slashing the state bureaucracy and welfare to the bone. Milei is socially conservative and opposes abortion, but also holds anti-clerical views. He wants to distance Argentina, a majority-Catholic nation, from the Catholic Church and its popular Argentine Pope. Milei’s ultra-libertarian positions, often contradictory views and bombastic personality have led observers to regard him as eccentric, unstable and even mentally unwell. But his star has kept on rising.

Massa, on the other hand, represents the traditionally dominant Peronist movement. He is the finance minister in the current cabinet. His Union for the Homeland alliance includes the Justicialist Party, traditionally Argentina’s ruling party. However, Massa hails from a dissident faction of Peronism, the Renewal Front. He is trying to distance himself from the older, more leftist faction led by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner because her faction has been plagued by corruption scandals. Massa did well in the October election, taking a six-point lead over Milei. This result was surprising, given Massa’s previous disappointing results in the open primaries, which were held in August.

The third-most popular candidate, Patricia Bullrich, who represents the center-right of the Argentinean political spectrum, was eliminated after the first round of voting. She caused a stir by encouraging her supporters to vote for Milei in the runoff. This divided her own party, Together For Change.

Together for Change supports a neoliberal economic policy. It is also socially conservative, and more closely aligned with the Catholic Church than Milei. The party counts on the support of several state governors and represents the legacy of Mauricio Macri, who was president from 2015 to 2019. Together for Change represents a more traditional, non-populist, center-right opposition to Peronism. Not all of its members, therefore, were happy to throw their hats in the ring with Milei.

So, who is winning?

Although Milei came in second in the first round of voting, the extra support from the center-right may tip the scales in his favor. By how much, we do not know. So there is no way of identifying a front-runner or predicting the outcome of the next election.

Opinion polls are of little predictive value because their results are not reliable. Many people who support Milei are embarrassed to admit it to pollsters. Therefore, poll results may inaccurately skew in favor of Massa. The situation is similar in the US. In the 2016 US presidential election, pollsters badly underestimated the size of the Trump movement, and almost all were blindsided by the eventual Republican victory.

The typical Milei voter is young, urban and male. Many Milei supporters are educated, and frustrated with high youth unemployment. Milei is also popular among the lower classes. This is a new development. Traditionally, the lower classes support the Peronist party, which presents itself as champion of the working class. However, Massa can count on widespread support in the provinces and in rural areas, where the Peronist party has a long-established network of friends in state and city governments. 

Such support explains why Massa did so much better in October than in August: After the primaries, the party machine kicked into gear. Peronist governors and mayors mobilized their supporters and Massa gained an extra three million votes. In contrast, Milei’s movement is too new to have an established provincial network. Its support is concentrated in Argentina’s big cities.

Among the middle class, Peronism still remains very popular. However, the upper classes retain their fierce opposition to Peronism and will never vote for Massa. His attempt to send a more pro-business message falls flat for Argentina’s elite.

Argentina’s economic woes

Argentina’s annual inflation is , the third-highest in the world. About 40% of the people cannot afford a basic bag of groceries or essential services like transport or healthcare. The country owes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) $44 billion — a jaw-dropping third of the institution’s entire lending portfolio — and it has no dollar reserves to make repayments.

Even though Massa is the sitting finance minister, voters do not seem to have blamed him for the economy’s sorry state. This runs counter to the conventional wisdom that voters punish incumbents for economic crises. Perhaps Argentineans have become accustomed to economic crises, and no longer view them as unusual. Voters in Lebanon and Pakistan seem to be behaving similarly. When a crisis — recession, political instability or war — becomes the norm, voters sometimes get used to it.

Yet it is fair to say that Argentineans are exhausted. The hopelessness of their economic situation is causing many to look for a savior — someone, anyone, who can shatter the status quo. To them, Milei just might be crazy enough to be that savior. He promises drastic measures, proposing to slash public spending by of the GDP, cut the number of ministries from 18 to eight, “blow up” the central bank and swap Argentina’s peso for the US dollar. He has even suggested that people be allowed to buy and sell bodily organs legally, along with other Milton Friedman-like market measures. These reforms sound promising to voters who have been disappointed by the state of perpetual crisis for decades.

Milei promises to break up the “caste,” the alliance of corrupt leaders and the voters who rely on handouts. He presents himself as the ultimate outsider and wants to throw the entire establishment out. But this is an impossible promise, because Milei will need to rely on ministers and bureaucrats to govern if he is elected. Indeed, he is already offering ministries to Bullrich and her supporters, the very people he painted as part of the “caste” just weeks ago. Voters can sense the shift and may abandon him if they believe he is losing his integrity.

The personality of Javier Milei

What does it say about Argentine society that a man like Milei has a shot at becoming president?

It is not just his politics that is eccentric. Milei loves to show off his four cloned English mastiffs, whom he claims to consult before making policy decisions. He has boasted on television about being a sex guru whom former girlfriends call “the naughty cow,” sung the praises of tantric sex, boasted that he could go without ejaculating for three months and performed a song called “Tantric Bomb” with his popstar girlfriend. He is an abrasive, insulting debater. 

In a Catholic country, Milei is considering converting to Judaism. He has said that his first state trip abroad will be to Israel. He has even called Pope Francis, an Argentinean who is immensely popular in his home country, a “communist turd” and a “piece of shit.” In some ways, he looks like a modern-day parody of Eva Perón, or like an Argentinean version of Donald Trump — or Caligula.

The Argentineans who support Milei aren’t crazy. They know that he is a weirdo. But they want change. They know he is anti-Catholic, but his opposition to abortion is enough to compensate them — besides, Argentines aren’t as Catholic as they used to be.

What is perhaps more worrying is Argentinean voters’ willingness to tolerate Milei’s views on history.

From 1976 to 1983, Argentina was under brutal military rule and thousands disappeared. Milei has reopened those wounds by : “We value the idea of memory, truth and justice – so let’s start with the truth. There weren’t 30,000 [victims], there were 8,753.” This statement broke a taboo. Argentinians have an implicit pact not to question or minimize the horrors of the dictatorship. Milei’s statement was more than an offensive pinprick. Argentina’s democracy was founded in opposition to the military dictatorship, which it eventually replaced. Minimizing the brutality of the dictatorship puts the foundations of Argentinean democracy into question.

The whole country saw the evidence of the dictatorship’s crimes during trials that took place just a decade ago. But the younger generations did not live through the dictatorship and do not have the same memory. They may even be willing to reevaluate this traumatic history. Over the last four decades, no one has called the necessity of democracy into question. However, as the memory of the dictatorship fades, and endemic corruption tarnishes democracy’s reputation, Argentina faces the risk of democratic backsliding.

Will a military dictatorship return? Unlikely. More plausibly, Argentina could slide towards illiberalism with a populist head of state who rewards corruption, much like Trump in the US and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil.

What lies in store for Argentina?

Whoever wins on November 19 will have a difficult time. In addition to the presidential elections, legislative elections were also held on October 22. Argentines have elected a divided legislature. No party holds a majority in either of the two chambers of Congress of the Argentine Nation. Parties will need to form coalitions in order to pass legislation.

The Peronists have long experience forming coalitions. Massa has been a governor before. He can compromise or bargain to pass legislation. In contrast, Milei has no experience as an executive. He is also railing against the “caste,” which may not be willing to play ball with him if he becomes president.

Polarization is growing in Argentina as in the rest of Latin America. Right-wing populist parties are active across the region. They have been collaborating with each other and with Vox, which is based in Spain. Bolsonaro’s defeat took some wind out of populism’s sails, but a victory from Milei could energize populists again. Chile and Brazil are having elections soon, and populists are surely watching what happens in Argentina closely. What happens in Argentina is unlikely to stay just in Argentina.

[ wrote the first draft of this piece.]

The views expressed in this article/video are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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The question arises: will this status quo change? Many experts and pundits are hoping for change after the surprising emergence of Javier Milei, a controversial far-right economist and politician. He garnered the most votes in the August 2023 Argentinean primary elections, challenging the political establishment.

At that time, it appeared that Argentineans were weary of the long-standing center-left dominance in the country’s political landscape. Both within Argentina and beyond its borders, the climate seemed ripe for a transformation, especially because the country is stuck in a long and deep .

Yet Milei has not gone unchallenged. Despite the increasing desire for change, Argentinean citizens might once again be taking the side of Peronism. The party’s candidate is Sergio Massa, a moderate Peronist who has been rising through the party’s ranks. When the government found itself cornered by the impending economic crisis, the current president, Alberto Fernández, called Massa in as the economic minister. He brought calm to the markets.

Milei may be popular, but it was Massa who garnered the most votes in the first round of the presidential elections. It seems, then, that a majority still supports the continuation of Peronism. Still, we will have to wait for the November 19 runoff election to know for sure.

Why has Peronism prevailed?

Let us look decades back to why the main feature of Argentina’s politics has been the dominance of Peronism. One of the main reasons is that Peronism has been a catch-all organization for most of its history, like the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) of Mexico. For decades, Peronism has nested in its womb different currents and factions, from urban guerrillas in the 1970s, the populist neoliberal reforms of in the late 90s, to the extreme state-led Leftist policies of the Kirchners in this century. 

For decades, Argentina has been the home of one of the most robust trade unions in the continent, with the Peronist trade union, the General Confederation of Labor, being the largest among many. While the party was never completely identified with the institutions of the state in Argentina, as the PRI was in Mexico, it did capture and express of Argentinean society. This has been true to the point that for many years Peronist-like rhetoric has been closely identified with the idiosyncrasies of ordinary Argentineans. 

There are two main reasons for the survival of Peronism. Firstly, the Peronist party is internally flexible and has a strong federal system, just as the state itself does.

Secondly, it was under the Peronist aegis that Argentina dealt with the crimes of the , which occurred in the latest phase of the military dictatorships (late 1970s and early 1980s). It was then that Argentina witnessed some of the worst and more prolonged crimes against humanity in the region. 

Despite back-and-forth decisions — well depicted in the 2002 Argentina, 1985 — the Argentinean judiciary and imprisioned many high-level perpetrators, most of them military officers. It was no coincidence that, when in July 2002 the International Criminal Court was established in The Hague, the first appointed was Luis Moreno Ocampo, who served many years as a fundamental actor in bringing military criminals to prison in his country during the transition to democracy in the 1980s.

Those dark days are over now. While Argentineans have suffered economic instability, inflation and limited growth, they credit Peronism with the level of social civility they now enjoy. 

Peronism today

Peronism experienced a comeback to stardom in the first decade of the 21st century during the which swept across Latin America led by Hugo Chávez, Lula da Silva and Evo Morales. During the last two decades, the party has grown in complexity, allowing for the emergence of regional powerhouses and political families. One such case is of the Kirchners (first Ernesto and later his wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner), who dominated Argentinean politics for twelve years (2003–2015) between them. Cristina, despite being indicted for corruption charges, is currently Vice President since 2019.

After this long dominance, many analysts interpreted the emergence of Javier Milei as a call for change. The Peronist party would finally enter the cemetery of political dinosaurs where it belongs.

However, Milei is not the first openly free-market politician to enter Argentina’s political fray. In 2015, Mauricio Macri played a similar role. He ran for president on a ticket promoting a shift in economic policies.

Macri was a businessman who held the helm of Chief of the Government of Buenos Aires. This is a position of considerable importance in a country where the capital region contains roughly 50% or the population. Once elected, Macri devoted most of his efforts to moving the country in a new economic direction. He did that in many respects, like abandoning the fixed exchange rate inherited from the Kirchners, removing high taxes for exports and reducing subsidies on energy to reduce the fiscal deficit. 

Macri also launched a tepid anti-corruption campaign with little consequences. However, he to deliver the renegotiation of the Argentinean debt, which had been frozen after the country declared a sovereign default in 2001. He left his term in office unable to curb inflation and having increased the national debt. 

In 2019, Macri lost reelection to Alberto Fernández, a moderate within Peronism, who included Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as Vice President. But while losing the seat in the Casa Rosada, the presidential palace, Macri left behind a strengthened center-right movement that won a host of governorships and an important slice in both chambers of Congress.

Given the economic difficulties of the Fernández administration, two years ago most analysts placed their bets on a change of government led by Cambiemos (Let’s Change), the Macri-created coalition. But Macri’s conventional center-right politics were not successful enough. It was clear that Argentinean voters were ready for a populist candidate boasting far-right changes.

Milei disrupts mainstream politics

To crush the mainstream articulated around both the Peronist tradition and the center-right alternative that emerged in the last decade, Milei has oriented his against the establishment. Like many other populists, he lambasted traditional party politics as the main source of corruption. The two parties were both a political “caste” to be eradicated. 

Despite a short career as a legislator, Milei ran as an outsider, which he is in many respects. He has a greater presence in the media than in political circles. He lacked a political organization until he decided to run for president. Secondly, as Trump before him, he ran a high-rated TV show where he sparred with opponents, deploying his extreme economic arguments, and explored the value of emotions in political discourse, even in such aseptic issues as economic policy.

Yet he is different from other populists in the region as he has adopted a style of extreme eccentricity, if not blunt extravagance. Despite creating a political movement, La Libertad Avanza (Liberty Advances), Milei relishes in centering all his actions around himself as a self-described anarcho-capitalist. Not only does he propose Argentina, but he supports eliminating both ministries of education and health. Regarding Peronism, he that “We are facing a criminal organization that won’t stop committing atrocities to stay in power.”

Regarding social issues and cultural wars, Milei is a pioneer “of the modern strain of far-right politics marked by vulgarity, attacks on institutions, discrediting of the news media, distrust of science, a cult of personality and narcissism,” Federico Finchelstein, an Argentinean professor of history at The New School, New York. Milei called China, Argentina’s trade partner, an “.” He also claimed that the state of Argentina is a .

Last year Milei went to the extreme of Pope Francis, an Argentinean citizen. He called him an imbecile, “a filthy leftist” and “someone who always stands on the side of .” Additionally, Milei’s rhetoric to chop all state institutions (he actually campaigned with a pointing to those ministers he would eliminate) did not play well with a vast majority of state workers, who preferred a well-known don’t-rock-the-boat politician. As the Latin American saying goes: “más vale mal conocido que bueno por conocer” (better a well-known bad guy than one that is well-known). Yet, it is unclear whether Milei’s extremist actions are enough to overturn Peronism’s dominance. 

The first round of the presidential election

In the runup to the first round of the presidential election, Milei was the clear favorite in most opinion polls. He scored between a high 36.2% and a low 29.9%. His main competitor, Sergio Massa, scored a low 25–26% and a high 32.33%. This was very close to the election date. As a result, most analysts and news outlets bet on a relatively close score with Milei dominating. Patricia Bulrich, the third contender representing the Macri movement, had the support of the business community and a long career starting as a Peronist youth member. Despite this, she shifted alliances until she ended as the minister of Security in the Macri administration. She won the primaries in the Cambiemos coalition but failed to become a real contender for either Massa or Milei.

The first-round brought about yet another surprise. Unexpectedly, Massa came on top with 37% of the votes, while Milei ended in the 30% level. Several facts account for these results. First, Massa played the safe card. He emphasized the need for stability and alerted the high risk represented by Milei. Secondly, Massa performed better in the presidential debate, showing a greater knowledge of the issues and a more “presidential” demeanor.

Additionally, in the week prior to election day, Massa pulled off a couple of public relations coups directed at Milei’s arguments. One was increasing tax exemptions for workers, and the other was providing two for train and bus commuters. Out of these two options, one was with the “Massa” low price and another with a higher price (without subsidies), allegedly to his adversaries. 

Milei failed to capture votes from the other portion of the conservative spectrum including Bulrich and her fellow conservatives. Massa’s business-friendly approach opened more doors to that segment of the electorate, once again proving the predominance of the Peronist party.

The ballot leans in favor of Massa 

Yet none of the candidates achieved the necessary percentage of votes, 40%, established in Argentina’s legislation. Bulrich came in third, and is therefore excluded from the runoff election. She simply did not find a clear path in contrast to the other two and babbled regarding policies. Therefore, the two top contenders, Massa and Milei, will dispute the presidency on November 19. It is unclear who will win.

Most experts give the same probability to both, but as the well-known Argentinan journalist Martín Caparrós , the second round has become a choice between two worst candidates. However, judging by several trends already in place, a qualitative analysis gives Massa a better chance than Milei. 

Let’s take a look at that. Massa was able to capture an important of voters from other quarters, but Milei’s numbers remained unchanged. It’s clear that Bulrich’s votes will be distributed between the two. However, even if they get 50% each, Massa will have turned the odds in his favor. Of course, this may vary after Bulrich publicly Milei’s ticket, as well as former president Macri. But politically, it is easier for Massa to play moderation and capture the interest of the center-right than it is for Milei to make a break with his high-gear anti-establishment rhetoric. This is especially apparent since he has argued that his two adversaries are both culprits of the nation’s economic crisis. 

Yet the same political party that has caused these economic crises might strike the balance in favor of Massa’s hyper-traditional politics. Peronism has survived the demise of most traditional parties in Latin America. The federal organization of the Argentinean state is more nurturing of traditional politics, both left and right, than centralized national politics. 

Demographics might also help Massa. Milei’s demographic is a majority of above forty-year-old males and an important inroad with young voters. Massa’s demographic is spread across demographic groups, with a stronger impact on the female voter. While Massa won a majority in the large cities, Milei won easily in the periphery. This is essentially because poverty levels there are higher. Those provinces have suffered to a greater extent from the restrictive export policies of Peronism, and they hold an anti-metropolitan grudge. 

The main political factors accounting for political instability in most Latin American democracies are polarization, fragmentation, volatility, breaking-up of governing coalitions, rejection of crucial government policies and impeachment of presidents. Compared to the rest of Latin America, Argentina scores low in most unstable political factors, with the exception of polarization and fragmentation, as I observerved in a June 2023 for Science, Technology & Public Policy. So, the probability that unseen factors will push for an abrupt change seems lower than in most other countries. All in all, if I had to place my bets, I would put them in the Massa basket. Of course, I may be wrong. It would be neither the first nor the last time.

[ edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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This first wave of BRICS enlargement was riven with tensions. While China favored the diffusion of its influence through the enlargement of the group, Brazil and India had against enlargement. They were more interested in deepening coordination between the existing members.

Although diplomatic coordination was never easy within BRICS, the group’s founding members used to share the objective of counterbalancing Western dominance. However, this shared objective has been shattered with the recent group’s enlargement.

China in charge

The manner and selection of countries for the enlargement of BRICS made clear China’s unchallenged ability to transform the group as an agent of an increasingly Chinese-led emerging global order. The selection of several autocracies as new members is telling of China’s view of how the global order should be shaped: an ad-hoc multilateralism that aids its own global ambitions.

With this autocratic turn of BRICS, the group’s previous rhetoric of reformism of global institutions is now replaced by a new narrative. China sees BRICS as a way to promote a global governance model that downplays liberal-democratic values and weakens the global rules-based order. As BRICS turns autocratic, the bloc is likely to start opposing US influence more emphatically, and Brazil and India will be isolated within the group.

Brazil and India’s acquiescence to the enlargement of BRICS has been possible with China’s support to the permanent membership of both countries in the . Brazil and India were never shy about their dream to permanently sit in the UN Security Council. However, neither country had imagined that China’s support for their entry into the UN’s selective club would result in their diminished influence in BRICS.

Two democracies in an authoritarian club

Unlike their autocratic fellow members of BRICS (both old and new), Brazil and India have a natural inclination to embrace the principles of equality and liberty both domestically and internationally. These principles, or the lack thereof, determine how democratic or autocratic regimes govern their countries, and, as a result, how they shape their foreign policies.

BRICS until now lacked an ideological or political orientation. What seemed to hold these countries together, apart from being large and prosperous emerging economies, was the shared experience (except for Russia) of colonialism and economic dependence. This experience is no longer enough to keep BRICS united. Brazil and India have made democratic governance part of their development as nation-states. The road towards democratic development has been tortuous, but Brazil and India have both succeeded in embracing democratic methods to guide their domestic governance and their international behavior.

Under democracy, Brazil and India have prospered greatly, achieving of economic development. These countries increased their human capital with more educated populations and reduced poverty and inequality, although slowly, over the past decades. Indeed, democracy has given these countries the opportunity to shine globally.

The World Should Learn From Poverty Alleviation in India

As democratic reformers of the fragile liberal order, Brazil and India will continue their efforts to become more influential in international multilateral institutions. And if these institutions welcome both countries by giving them more relevance, Brazil and India’s level of commitment to the now-autocratic BRICS will wane. In the meantime, BRICS will become the dream group of autocrats who want to find political and economic support in an increasingly chaotic international arena.

[ edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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This year’s BRICS summit took place in South Africa from August 22–24. The most important outcome of the summit was the decision to expand the group. will join on January 1, 2024: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Argentina, Iran and Ethiopia. The original membership has just been doubled and this is a transformative outcome.

Originally, the RIC group was a response to the emergence of a unipolar world following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Then, the BRIC nations, four economically rising powers from three continents, shared an agenda. All four wanted to make the global order more democratic and equitable. When BRICS emerged, these powers wanted a greater role of developing countries in the new world order. At least three of the powers—India, Brazil and South Africa—sought to reform the postwar UN system, including its political and financial institutions. These emerging powers wanted to make the UN the centerpiece of a reinvigorated multilateralism.

End of the unipolar moment

This multilateral approach is becoming all the more important as the world exits its unipolar moment. Although the US remains the world’s leading political, military and economic power, it is no longer able to unilaterally dictate the rules of the international system. It failed to change the Middle Eastern balance of power in its favor by military intervention in the Iraq War or by indirect means during the Arab Spring. The disastrous end of its War on Terror, exemplified by the retreat from Afghanistan, has reduced its international primacy.

The US now sees the need to strengthen its alliances in Europe and Asia to retain its global preeminence. This includes the reinvigoration of NATO in Europe, as well as the alliances with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines in Asia.

The US is pulling the team together as new tensions—with potentially dire consequences for global peace and security—have pitted it against both Russia and China. It has succeeded in getting its European partners to throw their into a common effort against Russia and that China is a systemic threat as well.

Furthermore, the US has used its to the hilt to isolate Russia and cause its economic collapse. Washington has also openly subscribed to the idea of regime change in Russia, a peer nuclear power. It is not only Russia but also China that lies in American crosshairs. The US now sees China as its principal longer-term adversary and is taking aggressive steps to thwart China’s technological rise.

Tensions between great powers are straining the international system. Western sanctions on Russia have been draconian. In particular, the US has weaponized the dollar-based global financial system. The war in Ukraine has also had deeply disruptive effects on the supply of , and to developing countries. The equity of a global order based on rules set by the powerful is now in serious question. This order does not emanate from the collective will of the international community but is defined and determined by the West.

RIC, BRIC and then BRICS were all about multipolarity. These non-Western powers wanted a seat at the top table. Yet the dominant Western powers who champion human rights and democracy are not ready to cede control. In fact, the West imposes its agenda on these powers through championing supposedly “universal values” and does not want to give up its traditional hegemony. Naturally, the BRICS nations oppose this hegemony and want a redistribution of global power.

The West has been locked in a confrontation with Russia and China. Both these powers are responding by expanding BRICS. Hence, they have added six new members to the group. Some of them, like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Argentina have historic links with the US. Yet their joining BRICS demonstrates that they are willing to reduce their dependence on the West. These nations want a counterbalance to the US and seek a rebalancing of the global political and economic system, which does not have such punitive costs for transgression.

The inclusion of new members into the BRICS club is telling. Iran is already a of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and close not only to China but also Russia. Iran has long been at loggerheads with the US and is subject to strong . Ethiopia is wracked by and prolonged . Yet the country has made it to the club on the basis of its increasingly close relationship with China.

Clearly, the BRICS expansion sends a loud and clear signal. BRICS has welcomed powers that challenge the US and are close to China and Russia.

What were the criteria and what does BRICS expansion mean?

The entry of new members to the BRICS club raises a key question. What were the criteria?

Were they GDP size or growth prospects or population size or geographic location or regional influence or some combination of these factors? It turns out that, except for energy exporters Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the other new countries face serious economic problems. Egypt is the most populous Arab nation with the largest military in the region. Yet its economy is in an acute crisis. Argentina, the second-largest Latin American country, is in yet another . Their addition does not exactly strengthen the BRICS club economically.

Importantly, no East or South Asian country joined the BRICS club. Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE lie in Asia but are part of the Middle East. Indonesia its candidacy at the last moment. It seems to be betting instead on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). BRICS is a geographically dispersed club while ASEAN is a cohesive organization with shared interests. External pressure by the US might also have played a role in Indonesia staying away from BRICS.

When it comes to African countries, Nigeria would have been a more credible addition than Ethiopia. However, the country did not apply for membership. Neither did Mexico. Algeria applied for membership but to have gotten in.

Clearly, the expansion of BRICS has been lopsided. Ethiopia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran are clustered together geographically. Only Argentina seems to stand out.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa : “We have tasked our Foreign Ministers to further develop the BRICS partner country model and a list of prospective partner countries and report by the next Summit.” Yet it is unclear what are the criteria for the expansion. It seems that new members have been admitted to the BRICS club on an ad hoc basis.

While expansion may boost multipolarity, it risks making the new BRICS+ club less cohesive. India and China have deep differences. Their militaries are in a at the border. Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran are not exactly the best of friends. Brazil and Argentina are rivals.

Furthermore, the commitment of various countries to BRICS+ is far from solid. Under Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil had less commitment to BRICS than current president Lula da Silva. Tellingly, South Africa Russian President Vladimir Putin because of its obligations to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Ramaphosa might wax lyrical about BRICS+, but his government is still constrained by Western-made law of The Hague-based ICC.

It remains to be seen how BRICS+ shapes up but it is clear that the addition of new members and prospects of further expansion are an indication of a growing, if inchoate, trend towards multipolarity.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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To explain how Latin America can avoid this outcome, we must first explain how lithium goes from initial extraction to a consumer product. Then, we will discuss strategies for Latin American governments that find themselves at different parts of this chain.

The EV battery supply chain consists of :

— Upstream: raw materials, like cobalt, nickel and lithium, are extracted in the form of ores or brines.

— Midstream: raw materials are refined and processed into battery cells.

— Downstream: battery cells are assembled into modules that automakers can use.

— End of Life: spent batteries are recycled or reused. 

Currently, China, South Korea and Japan the midstream stage. Latin America’s largest —Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Mexico—mainly operate in the upstream stage.

The danger is that Latin American mineral producers will find themselves merely selling raw unrefined lithium on the global market for quick cash and thus miss out on all of the added value that occurs at later stages of production. While they have the lithium resources, they will need to develop industrial capacities farther down the stream to capitalize any further.

Not every Latin American lithium producer has made the same amount of progress on this front. Chile, the world’s lithium miner, also has the most mature production capabilities in the region. Argentina, whose lithium supply is mostly managed by , is speedily increasing its production. Mexico is slowly attempting to catch up, while , hampered by political instability, is still taking its first steps into lithium exploration.

The US can be an investor and friend

In addition to large supplies of raw materials, Latin American countries have another advantage that they can lean on to develop their lithium industry: geographical and political proximity to the United States.

Current American trade policy prioritizes what US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen termed  “,” which means reconfiguring global supply chains so that key manufacturing is located in politically friendly and reliable countries.

Another favorable policy is the , major legislation seeking to cut America’s greenhouse gas emissions . The US is the global emitter of CO₂ and will need to make significant investments in EVs to meet this goal. The transportation sector is the largest emitter of greenhouse gasses in the US economy, which will need to replace fossil fuel-burning vehicles with EVs in the coming years.

The US needs EVs, and it doesn’t want to make all of them in China. How can the Western Hemisphere work together to make this happen?

Lithium producers, from the relatively developed Chile to the fledgling Bolivia, should encourage that allows them to advance their domestic capacity beyond raw material extraction.

For Chile and Argentina, which have production operations than Bolivia and Mexico, this means motivating American companies to not only continue investing in upstream capabilities but also to invest in development of their midstream capacities. Current US policy provides both countries an opportunity to attract private-sector American investments that will allow them to develop refining and battery cell assembly facilities.

��󾱱���’s with the United States makes it an even better candidate for US investment, given that the Inflation Reduction Act requires a certain percentage of EV battery minerals be extracted and processed in a country with which the United States has such an agreement. Argentina’s relationship with the US is not as friendly, although some point to future cooperation between the two nations on green development in the future.

For Bolivia and Mexico, whose production operations are less advanced than Chile and Argentina, the goal should be to continue attracting investments to their upstream capabilities, which are still in the development stage. To exploit lithium deposits, Mexico , a state-owned lithium company, less than a year ago. The of Bolivia’s 21 million tons of lithium has not even been determined yet.

Both nations have taken a to production, with Mexico also making use of public-private partnerships where possible. Mexico’s openness towards public-private partnerships, along with its automotive-centric and neighborly ties with the United States, makes it a prime candidate for American investments in upstream operations. The Mexican government is just starting lithium exploration, but these factors offer it a in attracting investment that could rapidly advance its upstream production.

Although Bolivia’s lithium industry is still in its embryonic stage, it too will need to attract outside investment to develop its upstream and, eventually, midstream capacities.

Despite their differences in approach—from state domination of production (Bolivia) to full reliance on private-sector collaboration (Argentina)—all four lithium producers will need to attract investment in order to develop multiple stages of the EV battery supply chain. This will allow the localization of production and, in turn, spur local economic development through spinoff entrepreneurship and supporting industries. The political will behind reshoring ; Latin America must capitalize on the present opportunity before American companies turn back to relying on Asian inputs out of inertia.

If Latin American nations are not able to develop multiple stages of the supply chain, they will be doomed to simply be providers of raw materials without seeing significant benefits. If they are able to take advantage of the opportunity, however, they will balance Asia’s dominance of the industry, help meet the growing global demand for EV batteries and ensure that production nodes stay within the Western Hemisphere.

[ edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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In a viral video, Carragher that Messi has a better goal record than Ronaldo. Furthermore, Messi is a playmaker who can run a game. He “can take you to a place where you can’t actually believe what you are seeing.” The affable and insightful Lineker believes that Messi “is the greatest player to have ever played the game.”

In Maradona’s Shadow

Until recently though, Messi was never quite loved in his native Argentina. He was seen as a Barcelona man who never gave his heart and soul for the national team. Messi was always compared unfavorably to another diminutive left-footed player who was the love of the nation: Diego Maradona. In the 1986 World Cup, Lineker scored six goals and won the Golden Boot, the award for the top scorer. Yet this was Maradona’s tournament. He scored five goals and made five assists. Argentina beat Germany 3-2 in the final.

One match from that 1986 World Cup defines Maradona. He was both devil and god in the space of a few minutes. England faced Argentina in the quarter finals on June 22 at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Maradona knocked the first goal in with his hand. It has come to be known as the “hand of God” goal and still many in England. In their eyes, Maradona cheated, which he most certainly did.

Four minutes later, he would go on to score the “goal of the century.” Maradona collected the ball in his own half, spun around and left multiple English players trailing in his wake. He dribbled past world class players and dummied one of the great goalkeepers to knock the ball into the empty net. That moment still lives on as a moment of pure footballing genius. Messi was expected to provide such moments of magic for Argentina and deliver the World Cup, which he failed to do until Sunday, December 18, 2022.

Maradona: A Devilish Argentine Saint

The two goals of Maradona capture not only the man but also his nation. Argentines have long treated football both as love and war, and, as we know, all is fair in love and war. Argentines play football with precisely this spirit. 

In 1978, Argentina hosted the World Cup. To this date, there are suspicions that the military dictatorship then ruling the country played dirty. At the time, the best player in the world was Johan Cryuff and the best team was arguably the Netherlands. Cryuff never showed up because a 1977 shook him up. Spain had just become a democracy after General Francisco Franco’s death and some insinuate that this incident might have been engineered by the Argentine military junta’s dirty tricks department. 

At the time, this regime was rounding up people by the thousands and killing them. A titled Power, Corruption & Lies recounts how the Argentine government manipulated the 1978 World Cup in every way possible to ensure that the home nation won. It is for good reason that Esquire this tournament “the dirtiest World Cup of all time.”

Eight years later, Argentines celebrated Maradona’s 1986 hand of God moment as revenge for defeat in the 1982 Falklands War. This war began when Argentina’s military junta invaded what they called Islas Malvinas. The British controlled these islands in the South Atlantic and called them the Falkland Islands. Argentine generals launched this invasion to divert attention from a terrible economy and mass unrest. Capturing these islands from the imperialists who had seized them would have boosted the regime. This was supposed to win the military kudos for their patriotism and revive their sagging fortunes. Instead, this 1982 misadventure led to bitter defeat and national disgrace. Maradona’s two goals, one deceitful and the other sublime, were seen as sweet Argentine revenge.

Ghosts of the Past

Like many other countries, Argentina is deeply tortured by its past. Once Argentina was the promised land. Waves of immigrants flocked to this New World nation. As in Canada and the US, European immigrants slaughtered indigenous peoples. Very few of them are left in the country. Even more than the US, Argentina practiced ethnic cleansing of the indigenous population.

Argentina was similarly ruthless with . About 200,000 arrived on the shores of the Río de la Plata in the early colonial days. By the end of the 18th century, one-third of the population was black. Today, hardly any of them remain. Argentines of blacks, packing many of them off to neighboring Brazil.

Jorge Luis Borges is called the nation’s greatest writer and, in the eyes of many, its soulkeeper. In 1975, he famously , “This country has no tradition of its own.” He went on to say: “There’s no native tradition of any kind since the Indians here were mere barbarians. We have to fall back on the European tradition, why not? It’s a very fine tradition.” Note that his grandmother, Frances Anne Haslam, had come from Staffordshire, England. In 1920 Borges turned 21. By then “over half the population of his native Buenos Aires had been born in Europe, the result of a vast wave of late nineteenth-century and early twentieth-century immigration.”

Argentina’s self-conscious European identity puts them in a strange position. They look down on other South American nations, which are far more mixed race, with contempt. However, they are not exactly Europeans either. An Argentine friend once remarked, “We are an odd people. We have a superiority complex vis-à-vis other South Americans and an inferiority complex vis-à-vis the Europeans.”

The Rosy Future Turned Into a Nightmare

For all the slaughter of the natives and the elimination of Africans, Argentines did not become like the Americans. In 1913, Argentina was the world’s 10th richest country. The future seemed bright. After all, European immigrants in a fertile land were bound to create el paradiso.

With the fertile Pampas, the majestic Andes and the beautiful Buenos Aires, Argentina has few excuses for failure. An October 2019 Australian observes that Argentina can produce food for 400 million people (its population is just over 46 million). It has the world’s second largest shale gas reserves and fourth largest shale oil reserves. Argentina also has the third largest reserves of lithium and large quantities of gold, silver and copper. 

Instead, Argentina has become the biggest borrower of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Pakistan negotiated a $6 billion bailout and is with IMF officials over the release of the latest $1.1 billion tranche to pay for imports and service foreign debts. In contrast, Argentina got a $44 billion bailout and has just spent $1 billion for “,” depleting its “scarce” foreign exchange reserves. The IMF has warned Argentina but the country has a history of on its international sovereign debt.

How Argentina Can Rebuild Its Economy

If there was a World Cup for a country that blew it, Argentina would be in the fray. Unlike Canada, Australia or New Zealand that started at similar levels of economic development in the early 20th century, Argentina . The country was unable to develop industry or stable institutions. Military coups, tumultuous electoral fraud, erosion of checks and balances, and the rise of populists like Juan Perón condemned Argentina to chaos. Today, 17 million people—43% of Argentina’s population—are living below the . If the economic crisis continues, this percentage could rise to 50%. 

Just as Maradona’s drug abuse and dissolute lifestyle destroyed him, political incompetence and economic mismanagement have turned Argentina into a basket case. 

Football, a Religion: Saint Messi Floats Above Pope Francis

For a country that has spectacularly lost the plot for a century, football is a religion that offers salvation. Foreigners who visit the country are taken aback by the primal passion the game excites. Hollywood actor Matt Damon has been to many sporting events but he says, “the craziest thing I have ever seen without a doubt is a soccer game in Argentina.” Armed police, barbed wire and no-man’s land between warring fans of rival sides are all par for the course.

When Argentina won the World Cup last year, an estimated two million people in the city center. They gathered around the city’s iconic obelisk designed by Argentine modernist architect Alberto Prebisch. The sea of people around the 67.5 meters tall icon was heaving with joy and relief. After many bitter years of disappointment, Argentina had finally won the World Cup a third time. Unlike 1978, this one was not rigged by a murderous military regime. Unlike 1986, there was no hand of God dodginess on the way to victory.

Of course, the Dutch team might complain that the referees favored Argentina in an ill-tempered match. The French and many others did not like Argentine goalkeeper Emi Martínez’s gamesmanship in throwing the ball away during the penalty shootout. On the whole though, Argentina won this World Cup fair and square. Manager Lionel Saloni, unsung hero Ángel di María, late bloomer Martínez and magical Messi eventually scripted a fairy tale.
Pope Francis is an Argentine and a football fan. Unlike Brazil, Argentina has not fallen to evangelicals. Catholicism is still dominant. An Argentine pope is a matter of great pride to the country. Yet the favored son of this Europeanized New World Catholic paradise lost is Messi. He has delivered what the nation most wanted. With inflation hitting , poverty rising and an already grim economic crisis worsening, Saint Messi and his loyal foot soldiers have given Argentina something to smile about.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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In July of 1994, a man drove an explosive-laden van into the headquarters of the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) killing 85 and injuring more than 300 people. The bombing is the deadliest terrorist incident on Argentine soil to date.

In 2006, the Argentine federal prosecutor Alberto Nisman accused Iran’s paramilitary force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) of designing the AMIA attack, and its Lebanese proxy force Hezbollah of executing it. However, there have been members within Argentina’s political leadership who have consistently sought to stall any investigation into the case.

More Twists and Turns

Among them was Argentina’s former president  Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, now serving a six-year prison sentence for corruption. When Fernández came to power in 2007, the country signed a memorandum of understanding  withIran.  Together with Interpol, the two governments agreed to form a truth commission.

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Multiple  Jewish community groups in Argentina, including the AMIA, filed a petition denouncing the memorandum as unconstitutional. Their  contention was that the evidence of Iran’s involvement in the bombing  was undeniable, and that it offered no benefit to the victims of the attack or Argentina. .

Nisman also opposed the memorandum, calling it a “wrongful interference of the executive branch” , and accused President Fernández and her government of trying to cover up Iran’s involvement.. 

Nisman  even a 300-page dossier on the Kirchner government’s efforts to cover up the AMIA incident. Butt in January of 2015, before he had a chance to present his findings to  Congress, he was shot dead. Hismurder as well as that of the AMIA bombing are still open.

After Mauricio Macri succeeded Fernández later that same year , his justice ministry immediatelyoided the memorandum. Israel’s former and most likely next prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the move as a “welcome change of direction” for  Argentina and expressed hope that relations with Tel Aviv  would improve.

However, the seizure  of an Iranian-Venezuelan Boeing 747 in Buenos Aires lastJune added  another  twist to an unfolding drama . The plan had a crew of 19 people, 5 were Iranians. Some had clear ties to the IRGC and the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s . It was also discovered that  such flights to Argentina have been a regular occurrence for some time. 

This has raised many questions regarding the extent of Iran’s security and military presence as well as political influence in Argentina. For example, the pilot of the seized plane, Gholamreza Ghasemi, is aranking of the Quds Force, the same security wing  that plotted the AMIA bombing.

Just An Argentine Cover Up?

The opposition and members of the judiciary have accused Macri’s  government of orchestrating a of these  flights of the regime-affiliated Iranian-Venezuelan aircraft to Argentina. Many of the current Argentine government officials are the same people who signed the AMIA memorandum under Fernández.

Last July, a group of US Senate Republicans sent a letter to the Biden administration demanding a rationale for their delay in delivering key information of the Iranian suspects in the Boeing case to Argentine law enforcement officials. e. They believed the administration was aware of the extent of the IRGC’s association in South America but were withholding information in order to not undermine efforts to revive the JCPOA.

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Last August, Argentina arrested four Iranians with fake French passports with possible links to the  Revolutionary Guards. They were arrested at Ezeiza International Airport in Buenos Aires, intending to  fly to Amsterdam. 

The arrest for the four was issued by the Federal Judge Federico Villena, who is also in charge of investigating the Boeing case.

In October, a month after protests in Iran began, Argentina released the Boeing 747 cargo plane and the 5 crew members still detained. The federal judge Federico Villena determined that there was no basis to prosecute the crew. However, the judicial investigation will still remain .

Although the case seems closed at this point, the IRGC’s active presence in South America can be still used to  scuttle the JCPOA for good.  Flight records even show that the same Boeing plane made a brief stop in Moscow before heading to . 

In light of all of these events, Washington should find no reason to appease the theocrats of Tehran with a revised nuclear deal. Hopefully, the JCPOA will finally enter the archives of failed deals with dictators.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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The International Monetary Fund recently approved the second review of Argentina’s three-year stand-by . In doing so, $7.6 billion was made available for the country. The institution’s disbursements reached $28.3 billion in 2018, almost half of the $57 billion agreed in the largest conditional agreement in the IMF’s history.

In Argentina, the combination of a bad harvest, persistent inflation and the abrupt closure of international financial markets triggered an exchange rate crisis during the second quarter of last year. The former poster child of the international debt markets found itself being dismissed by investment funds. Therefore, the pro-market government of President Mauricio Macri asked the IMF for a financial agreement, despite the fund recalling the traumatic crisis of 2001.

But international tensions arising from the increased interest rates and the trade dispute between the US and China have led to added financial uncertainty, which worsened Argentine economic indicators. According to , the country risk soared to 837 points in late December 2018, the currency was devalued by 50% against the US dollar and inflation accelerated sharply. In order to strengthen financial investors’ confidence, the IMF tightened the fiscal adjustment required and advanced disbursements to meet external debt payments until the end of 2019, when President Macri will revalidate his mandate at the polls.

Far-reaching conditions on economic policies

The revised program established a classic severe fiscal and monetary adjustment in order to stabilize the economy and reduce the current account deficit. In the second review, the IMF noted the currency stabilization — the remained almost flat in the last quarter — and the , which in any case will end the year above 45%.

Committed to the orthodox program, the government complied with all scheduled conditionalities, including a strict fiscal adjustment (focused on the reduction of transfers to the provinces, public investment and wages), the maintenance of an international reserves minimum limit, the elimination of central bank financing to the treasury and the approval of a zero-deficit budget for next year. Argentina also maintains the (today at 60%) and a zero growth of monetary aggregates.

Facing the virtual closure of private international financing, the program achieved the objective of adjusting the current account, but at the cost of a collapse in imports due to a deep activity decline. The combined effect of devaluation, a 13% in the average real salary according to the Statistical Workers Institute, and a soaring interest rate is a deep recession.

The IMF predicts a 2.8% GDP decline for this year, affecting mainly manufacturing and retail, and estimates that growth would resume only in 2020, expected to be driven by exports and investment. Not surprisingly, the economic and social indicators seem to have strongly deteriorated. According to , investment and private consumption fell by 11.2 and 4.5 percentage points year-on-year respectively, and reached 27.3% of the population (an annual increase of 6.2%). Notably, the inclusion in the program of some safeguards to maintain social spending moderated the worsening of social conditions.

Argentina will have to step up its reform efforts

The IMF has stressed the need for structural reforms in 2019. The fund has long insisted on the need to deepen the deregulation of the labor market in order to facilitate the reduction in hiring costs, eliminate what it considers to be distortions in the tax system and reformulate the pension system.

According to the IMF, these measures seek to stimulate investment and productivity, increase employment for women, young people and low-income workers, and strengthen the institutional policy framework. In this sense, as a structural condition for the next review, the IMF has demanded sending to congress a reform of the central bank charter to ensure its operational autonomy, strengthen its monetary policy mandate, enhance decision-making structures, and promote transparency and accountability.

The third review, scheduled for March, looks like a politically challenging event for the Argentine government. In an election year and in full recession, it must send an unpopular bill without a majority in the chambers, meet the zero deficit and make progress in the technical preparations of structural reforms. The government will not be able to appeal to discretionary transfers to boost public morale.

What this means has already been foreseen in last year’s report: “If the government does not give in to trade union demands during wage bargaining rounds, the government could face destabilizing protests.” However, if the government does, the IMF might curtail its support. This dilemma will be difficult to resolve.

The disbursement of $10.8 billion depends on the approval of the next IMF review, which comprises almost 50% of the disbursements contemplated for this year. A delay could increase the political and financial uncertainty, which has already been affected by the support shown for the Peronist candidate — and former president — Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. According to a recent , she would attract 36.7% of the votes against 34.5% for Macri. A turbulent year lies ahead in Argentina.

*[Updated on Feb 28, 2019: An earlier version of this article mistakenly stated that the IMF had demanded that Argentina resists pressure to increase wages.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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When Mauricio Macri was inaugurated president of Argentina in December 2015, he announced that his biggest goal was to regenerate the economy of his country. Where should he lead his efforts? Experts believe that it is crucial to restore the confidence of foreign investors in Argentina in order to attract the capital that the country needs to improve its infrastructure, production volumes and competitiveness. However, that will be only the beginning of a long road that is bound to be full of challenges and headaches for Argentina.

Macri’s election ended 12 years of populist “Kirchnerism” in the country—an era that began in 2003 with the first administration of President Nestor Kirchner, and continued during the two terms of his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Macri entered the Casa Rosada (“Pink House”)—Argentina’s equivalent of the White House—with promises of transforming his country into an economic model for Latin America. Macri said he aims to turn Argentina into a prosperous nation that attracts the attention of international investors who are eager to do business in that resource-rich nation.

The first and foremost step in that direction was taken on April 21, 2016, when the new chief executive delivered the $9.3 billion that��—the 7% of Argentina’s creditors who had rejected the negotiated restructuring of the country’s debt in 2004 and 2010, and then decided to claim their funds in New York courts. In deciding to deliver those funds, Macri put an end to 14 years of default and returned Argentina to international debt markets.

The Macri government’s next goal is to return to complete competitiveness in a globalized world. After six months in power, and an analysis of the situation, Macri’s economic team estimates that in order to reach that goal, Argentina needs investments worth some $100 billion.

, director of Wharton’s Lauder Institute, explains that Macri has been “trying to unblock the situation internationally by reaching agreement with the various bondholders while at the same time trying to keep the opposition in Argentina under control. The various unions in Argentina are deeply divided.” Recently, however, “the three major union groups have come together [because] they want to oppose what the [Macri] government is doing.”

The international situation is particularly troubling, given that until three or four years ago, “Argentina was benefitting big time from China’s growth in terms of exports of soy and soy beans and so on,” Guillen notes. “It is a difficult situation, but Macri has the support of the business community and of the international community. When he came to power, I predicted that the [opposition party known as the] Peronists were going to make his life nearly impossible. So let’s see if he can survive his first year in office without any major problems.” According to the��Buenos Aires Herald, no democratic non-Peronist leader has managed to complete his term as Argentine president since Marcelo T. de Alvear did so in 1928.

When it comes to the new investments that Macri hopes to attract, “Beyond the [dollar] amount of the investments, the most important thing is how those funds will be applied,” notes��Enrique Lucio Kawamura, professor at the University of San Andrés in Buenos Aires. The��dollar value of such investments is debatable, since the exact figure usually depends on many assumptions that can almost��never be perfectly known in advance, says Kawamura, who has been studying both the productive sectors where those investments will be realized��as well as the kinds of investments involved. “It is not the same thing to invest a certain amount to acquire new ‘know-how’ about production processes that discretely increase productivity as it is to invest that same amount simply in replacing depreciated machinery, for example.”

Guillen notes that Macri is not only a successful business person, but also someone who has been in the public eye in Argentina for a very long time. Son of a prominent��Italian��businessman in the industrial and construction sectors, Macri gained national recognition in 1995 when he became president of��Boca Juniors, one of the two most popular football clubs in the country. In 2005, he created the��center-right��electoral front��Republican Proposal, known as PRO.

Guillen explains: “I think he is very committed to making a difference in Argentina, and I don’t think he is going to shy away from the challenges or give up. He understands the stakes and he knows that no matter how tough the situation gets, he needs to persevere, to be very forceful. He has a lot of enemies; everybody does in Argentina. I think he is keenly aware of that; he understands the Argentine political system, not just as a business person but as a politician.”

Strong Support from the US and Europe

“Macri has the support of the business community and of the international community,” notes Guillen. “Both Europe and the United States are very supportive. Europe and the United States have long been suspicious of the Peronists and the Kirchnerists. Everybody outside of Argentina—in Europe and the United States as well as in Mexico and Chile—was hoping that Macri would win, so he has a lot of political capital” in those countries. “At the same time, he is seen as an enemy by Bolivia and Venezuela and Ecuador,” whose populist governments are opposed to Macri’s free-market reforms. In any case, “Europe and the US matter much more now, especially in terms of reaching financial deals and insuring that there will be more foreign investment in Argentina. That is one of the key advantages that he has.”

When Mauricio Macri was inaugurated president of Argentina in December 2015, he announced that his biggest goal was to regenerate the economy of his country. Where should he lead his efforts?

In July, the German-Argentinian Chamber of Commerce announced that “German companies in Argentina welcome the change in economic policy by Macri’s government,” which should improve the competitiveness of Argentine industry and lead to “a sustainable economic recovery.” The chamber said that German companies plan to invest about $3 billion in Argentina over the next four years as they welcome changes in economic policy. That month, Macri and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met in Berlin, marking Macri’s first visit as president to Europe’s biggest economy. At a joint news conference, Merkel said: “Nothing stands in the way of closer German-Argentinian cooperation.”

Rather than focus on specific numerical targets for foreign investment in Argentina, Martin Simonetta, professor of political economics at the University of Business and Social Sciences (UCES) in Buenos Aires, and director general of the Atlas Foundation for a Free Society, stresses the critical role of building confidence in the country. “It is an enormous challenge to reform decades of economic, political and institutional disorder as well as the resulting disinvestment that the Argentine economy has experienced,” says Simonetta. For this reason, it is fundamental “to recover the lost confidence in the country.” It is also necessary to reform Argentina on a foundation of predictability and transparency that makes it possible to forecast the medium and long term beyond changes of government. “If we manage to rebuild that brand of trust and credibility, investment will recover as a natural result. Regrettably, however, once confidence is lost, it is not rebuilt from one day to the next,” Simonetta adds.

In a key initiative aimed at rebuilding international confidence, Macri’s team recently created the Argentine Agency for Investors and International Trade, which is responsible for spreading word about the changes occurring in Argentina and building an attractive image for the country. In a major promotional effort, the agency will mount the Forum in Buenos Aires from September 12-15. The event will bring together more than 1,500 global investors, government leaders from around the world, and CEOs of Fortune 500 companies from a wide range of sectors, including energy, finance, information technology, infrastructure, agriculture and health care. Speakers will include senior executives from BP, Boeing, Siemens, Coca-Cola, Unilever, Dow Chemical and Lazard.

According to Simonetta, Macri’s investment priorities should be to modernize Argentina’s road and railroad infrastructure, and to increase funding for agriculture, mining and renewable energy. One of the most ambitious infrastructures is called the Belgrano Plan. Its goal is to promote the northern region of the country by investing $2 billion in its infrastructure. The plan also incorporates initiatives for creating some 250,000 housing units, and providing tax and labor incentives for those companies that set up operations in that region.

According to Kawamura, the government’s private investment priorities should be to increase the productivity of those “dynamic” sectors that have high potential for exporting, such as software and highly differentiated manufactured goods, as well as agribusiness industries that meet the demands of markets in Asia in ways guaranteed to generate a “sustainable” flow of foreign exchange.

In that regard, he believes that it is “important to have a strategic plan for thinking about specific policies that introduce appropriate incentives for private investments that have such a goal.” When it comes to public sector investments, he says it is necessary “to undertake policies for investments in transportation infrastructure that guarantee the reduction of costs in the most efficient ways possible. The goal of such a strategy is to make important decisions that generate pressure on unions and other stakeholders … who threaten to act against that efficiency.”

Beyond economic considerations, Kawamura argues the importance of building a reliable structure for making public sector decisions. He believes that there has to be a much more profound discussion about whether the system—as it works today—does not threaten these economic goals, “since its functioning sometimes produces a short-term bias, which does not help to implement even the minimal amount of credibility that guarantees reasonable returns for those sectors exposed to significant amounts of investments over the long term.”

Along the same lines, Simonetta argues: “The priorities are institutional. That is to say, to invest in building a political framework that enables people to make decisions and plan with goals for the medium and long term as a result.” At the same time, he notes that “the country’s potential is unlimited.” He believes that there is an enormous opportunity in the agribusiness sector, “which possesses a prodigious amount of resources in an unprecedented context of growth in world population, and a resulting growth in demand for food.”

New Directions in Trade Policy

Another key to Macri’s strategy is to integrate Argentina into the South American market. In so doing, Macri is distancing himself, however, from the policy directives laid out by the previous government, which committed itself to the regional development model developed by Mercosur (founded in 1991), a trade bloc that comprises Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela.

In so doing, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was distancing Argentina from the Pacific Alliance. Launched in 2012, the Pacific Alliance trade bloc—comprising Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru—provides some 40% of Latin America’s total gross domestic product (GDP), almost 60% more than Mercosur, according to the World Trade Organization. However, ex-President Fernandez de Kirchner was afraid that the alliance’s goal of promoting free trade in capital and services could damage some less competitive sectors of the Argentine economy.

Macri’s turnabout has been total in the sense that Argentina has already become an “official observer” in the Pacific Alliance, the first step toward its eventual full membership in the grouping.

Simonetta believes that it is “fundamental” for Argentina to integrate itself into the global economy, but that Mercosur is not the best way to position Argentina in Latin America. “Mercosur was a useful tool in its time, but the integration process has been stopped. Nowadays, the Pacific is the fastest-growing region on the planet, and Argentina must jump onto that train. We must be part of the dynamic processes of integration that speed up the growth of the economies [of the Pacific region], and we must leave behind the protectionist fortresses” of the past.

However, Kawamura warns, “Free trade, in itself, does not guarantee any greater competitiveness” for Argentina. The country must establish greater participation in international markets, “but through an integral plan of incentives for investments that generate the increased productivity that assures us that the greater participation [of Argentina in such markets] also spurs a substantial increase in the exports of those products that are not necessarily primary products in the agribusiness sector,” where Argentina has traditionally been competitive.

He adds that it is important “to analyze our country’s capability to negotiate a potential entry into the Pacific Alliance with respect to other member countries.” Argentina should analyze its “comparative advantages, in order to prevent its entry into this sort of trade group from leading to balance of payments problems that [wind up being] hard to resolve.”

Optimism Despite the Challenges

Are Macri’s chances for charting such a course for Argentina already beginning to fade? His approval ratings dropped from 51% in March 2016 to 44% at the end of May, according to Management and Fit, a polling company in the Argentine capital. In August, however, Finance Minister Alfonso Prat Gay announced that the economy was already showing positive signs and that it would grow again this year.

Prat Gay added that Argentina’s economic reintegration to the world is already helping the country attract the foreign capital that it needs to control inflation and encourage economic activity. “The hardest time has passed,” he assured reporters, referring to the government-sponsored utility hikes and the peso devaluation. “We are much better than many believed. We have made progress in the first six months. There was a recovery in May that was confirmed in June.”

For his part, Guillen has not abandoned hope. “I am optimistic. [But] let’s not minimize the difficulties that [Macri] is facing with the domestic political situation. He has sworn enemies, and they are going to do whatever they can to make him fail.”

*[This article was originally published by , a partner institution of .]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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A new wave of is systematically putting an end to 12 years of isolationist, leftist populism under Peronist President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, with the latest development a to freeze the former leader’s assets. After an inward turn that saw Buenos Aires rely on “progressive” allies like Venezuela, an election in late 2015��.

Since the upset victory, Macri has made efforts to repair Argentina’s tainted image in global financial markets and , settling from the Peronist era and reviving trade talks with the European Union. In February, the nation agreed to a $4.6 billion settlement with creditors, ending years of refusals by the Peronist government.

Kirchner-era Argentina was reliant on high commodity prices for the country’s exports to fund the government’s populist policies and ignore market imperatives on free trade, but falling prices have forced the country out of this self-imposed exile. The reforms sought by Macri and other centrist leaders will face a number of challenges, particularly economic ones—his administration had to reduce a budget deficit equivalent to����last year. While this move back toward the international markets will no doubt benefit Argentina in the long run, this chain of events mirrors a pattern seen in many of the world’s resource-based economies as commodity prices plummet.

Rentier States

The precipitous drop in oil prices in particular has forced rentier states, which were able to count on massive energy profits to fund generous state largesse up until a few years ago, to diversify their economic relationships with Europe and the rest of the world. These profits allowed states like Saudi Arabia and Iran to get by with incredibly inefficient economies, which officials in both countries are now actively restructuring in order to stimulate real growth and attract international business.

In June, Saudi Arabia announced the details of a comprehensive, widely-reported and limit state handouts with a focus on building a non-oil revenue base. With government revenue , falling prices have deeply afflicted Saudi Arabia’s finances.

In March, King Salman’s government announced Vision 2030, a reform plan to wean the national economy off this all-consuming dependence on oil. , for their part, have responded with great interest to news that Saudi Arabia was looking into a public offering of state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco. The global financial industry apparently sees major opportunity in backing and financing these privatization reforms, and even small firms like the United Kingdom’s Verus Partners have helping the Saudi government issue sovereign debt.

State-Heavy Economies

Iran’s challenges appear far more daunting, with the lingering effects of US banking sanctions giving pause to European firms that are otherwise rearing to go back into the coveted market. Nonetheless, President Hassan Rouhani is attempting to liberalize the nation’s state-heavy economy and reestablish economic ties with the rest of the world. Iran has thus far been able to since last year’s nuclear deal was sealed and sanctions were scaled back.

Iranian government sources (perhaps addressing concerns over Tehran’s role in the Syrian conflict) insist this money will be used for development projects and to stimulate the economy.

There have been other victories, notably with Airbus and Boeing to update Iran’s badly dated civilian airliner fleet. Outside experts and ��have echoed Rouhani’s insistence on , and Iran’s extraordinarily well-educated has already helped it develop domestic automotive, telecommunications and aerospace industries since the 1979 revolution.

Hard-liners in Iran and some conservatives in the United States, however, are doing their utmost to dampen enthusiasm. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps profited immensely from the sanctions regime to over the domestic economy (especially over the energy sector), while members of the US Congress are the Boeing deal.

While Saudi Arabia and Iran try to open themselves up, at least one of their fellow producers is fighting tooth and nail to protect an ill-fated “socialist revolution.” Under Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela is now against a backdrop of severe shortages and rampant hardship. Since the drop in oil prices, the economy has essentially fallen apart and Venezuela is on its way to becoming a failed state.

Many Venezuelans are now forced to get by on .��Beyond having the second highest murder rate in the world, Venezuela .

As much as falling oil prices, is at the root of the country’s struggles. Maduro’s obstinate stance toward the US has done little to help, and Hugo Chávez’s embattled successor now faces a movement intent on ousting him from power. The opposition has begun checking signatures on a petition to begin the process, which the 200,000 signatures it needed to move forward.

Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Iran can learn from the failure of the Venezuelan model. Opening themselves up as full, balanced participants in global trade offers improved long-term conditions and security against the worst excesses of oil dependency. As Venezuelans are learning the hard way, state policy that prioritizes insulation from the world economy and redistribution of natural resource rents is an easy road to instability and collapse.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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 appeared first on 51�Թ�.

In the crush of events that always weigh down a US president, and the daily eruptions of the 2016 election campaign, it would be a monumental mistake to underestimate the importance of President Barack Obama’s . US outreach to Latin America never seems to garner sufficient priority, and the personal attention by Obama to one of the most interesting new leaders in a hugely influential country south of the border should not go unremarked.

Macri’s electoral from the path taken by many of Argentina’s neighbors, where corruption and ineptitude seem pervasive in places like Venezuela, Bolivia and Brazil. Succeeding Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, whose fame, or infamy, rested on her accommodations with neighborhood thugs—not to mention her various deals with —Macri brings to Casa Rosada the promise of a new day for his people and a new model for Latin America.

The most important changes in the short term are his efforts to resurrect Argentina’s economy, to restore investor faith in open markets, and to carry out honorable agreements to pay down the nation’s huge debts. Unlike his predecessor and many of the continent’s failed leaders, Macri is already demonstrating that he has the confidence to build a warm two-way relationship with the US without concern that it will suffocate his nation, a particular fear of every South American leader.

The visit of a US president to Buenos Aires also serves as a challenge to Macri to fulfill his potential as a historic figure throughout the Western Hemisphere by replacing the old cabal. Along with his decisive , Macri abrogated to whitewash Tehran’s role in sponsoring and financing its terrorist agent, the Lebanese Hezbollah, in .

Obama’s visit took place in the immediate aftermath of the bombing of Brussels on March 22, and some of the president’s and hurried back to Washington. But his wise decision to travel to Argentina to embrace the change that Macri represents is unarguable in terms of advancing US, regional and global interests. Standing with Macri, President Obama is making it clear that the United States is an ally of elected leaders committed to democracy and human rights.

With Venezuela on the brink of economic collapse and Brazil’s leadership almost certainly facing impeachment charges, Argentina is the only major player in the region with a forward looking agenda that offers hope to its people.

Obama’s embrace of Macri is a long-term strategic play that propels the new Argentine president to the forefront of Latin America’s new generation of leaders. In a rather bleak world where good news is hard to find, President Macri’s emerging role on the world stage is one of the most welcome developments in recent years.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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The , the candidate for the Cambiemos (Let’s Change) coalition, as president has been welcomed as a potential turning point in ’s financial, political and foreign policy outlooks. The country’s economic performance has been overshadowed by high inflation and isolation from global capital markets, and planned reforms will likely boost its exports and could accelerate investment in areas such as infrastructure and the nascent shale gas sector.

Nevertheless, the president-elect, who takes office on December 10, faces a multitude of political and economic challenges. Planned subsidy removal and the likely devaluation of the Argentine peso could generate unrest, and the new president will have to carefully negotiate the politically emotive dispute with debt holdouts. Macri’s could also be threatened by a fragile position for his Republican Proposal Party (PRO) in both houses of Congress and the need to appease allies from across the political spectrum, including the leftist Radical Civic Union (UCR), which formed part of Macri’s winning coalition in the presidential election.

Macri’s election will also likely see a shift in Argentina’s foreign policy, notably changing relations with the United States, Venezuela and potentially China. Previous comments by Macri and the appointment of Susana Malcorra as foreign minister suggest a more to the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) sovereignty dispute, but the subject will certainly continue to generate divisions, especially if oil drilling resumes in early 2016.

Macri’s reform agenda

Macri’s electoral campaign centered on pledges to strengthen the economy and increase investor confidence by improving financial transparency and reducing the interventionist role of the state. He has announced that currency controls will be lifted and autonomy for the Central Bank will be restored, risking short-term devaluation of the peso that he hopes will be offset by long-term currency stability and a growth of trade. Marking , he has called on Alejandro Vanoli and several Central Bank executives to step aside and announced plans to reform the statistics agency INDEC, which was de facto controlled by the Kirchner administration and censured by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for falsifying data in 2014.

Another economic priority for the president-elect will be addressing Argentina’s high inflation and its long-standing limited access to international capital markets. Key to this, the resolution of the $1.3 billion legal dispute with a group of , who rejected 2005 and 2010 debt restructuring deals following the 2001 $9.7 billion debt default, will likely be brokered by the IMF. Dwindling foreign reserves have led the government to print money, fueling high levels of inflation that have been masked by government restrictions on independent economic reporting. Although Argentina’s debt repayments will increase, renewed access to capital markets should help curb Argentina’s inflation problem.

The removal of export tariffs and quotas in the agricultural sector are forecast to boost corn exports by as much as 44% by 2018, and wheat exports may rise from 4.7 million tons in 2014 to 12 million in 2018, according to the leading agronomist Pablo Adreani. The move will be popularly received by the domestic agricultural sector, which is estimated to have stores of $8 billion-worth of crops available for export. Macri has also prioritized infrastructure, planning the ten-year, $16 billion initiative to boost connectivity between Argentina’s ten provinces in the north and center of the country with key ports, thus further boosting trade. Infrastructure suffered from underinvestment under , with the World Bank Logistics Performance Index recording consistent declines in Argentina’s infrastructure score between 2010 and 2014.

Macri is also expected to build on positive reforms made under the New Hydrocarbon Law in October 2014 aimed at incentivizing , including its vast, largely untapped shale gas reserves. Argentina is estimated to hold the second largest reserves of shale in the world, and if the government is successful in tackling broader deterrents to investment linked to currency instability and foreign exchange controls, the sector could grow significantly; though the speed of investment will be somewhat dependent on global energy markets and other key contracting terms such as the country’s high domestic supply obligations. In a positive sign for the sector, Macri has appointed the former Shell Argentina chief executive, Juan Jose Aranguren, as energy minister.

Challenges facing economic reforms

The president-elect has inherited severe economic challenges on multiple fronts. The country has a 30-year record fiscal deficit of 7.2% of GDP, and the IMF predicts the economy will shrink by 0.7% in 2016. Adding to the negative economic outlook is double-figure inflation, estimated by independent economists to be as high as 30%, and foreign currency reserves which are at a nine-year low of under $26 billion.

The pace at which to tackle these challenges will divide politicians and the public. Although shock treatment could resolve some macroeconomic difficulties, the quick removal of price caps on hundreds of consumer products and energy and transport subsidies—valued at nearly 5% of GDP—will increase prices and impact wages, potentially provoking civil unrest and strikes by the country’s powerful and well-organized trade unions.

Political hurdles

The speed and extent of reforms pursued will depend on Macri’s ability to negotiate and form political alliances. In the October 25 legislative elections, Cambiemos secured 90 out of 257 seats in the lower house, while Kirchner’s Front for Victory (FPV) gained 107 seats, and third place presidential candidate Sergio Massa’s Frente Renovador (Renewal Front) won 31 seats. Of the 90 seats gained by Cambiemos, 43 belong to Macri’s Republican Proposal Party, raising the potential for dissent from within the coalition, which includes leftist parties such as the Radical Civic Union (UCR).

In order to pass legislation, Macri will also have to appease lawmakers loyal to Massa, who has expressed his support for the president but said he would rebel against policies on which he disagrees. Contentious policies are likely to include the elimination of currency controls and price caps that could impact negatively upon Massa supporters.

As mayor of Buenos Aires, Macri experienced negotiating the passage of legislation with a minority, and the national political system—in which senators traditionally follow state governors who negotiate directly with the president—could also benefit the president-elect. Macri’s ability to secure consensus from the Senate will be essential in securing the approval of a debt deal with bondholders.

Cristina Kirchner / Flickr

Rising crime

Macri has pledged to adopt a tough stance on crime, particularly drug trafficking, which could fuel a short-term rise in violence. Argentina’s increasing role in the and position as the second highest consumer of narcotics in the region after Brazil has seen a growth of well-organized criminal gangs who perpetrate high levels of violence. Homicide rates have increased year on year since 2010, with an increase of 16% between 2012 and 2013. A 50% rise in kidnappings in Buenos Aires province between 2013 and 2014 parallel to rising crime rates provoked a series of public “cacerolazo” protests, reflecting public concerns over security.

Macri has planned to create a national agency responsible for coordinating the response to narcotics crime and professionalize the provincial police forces, in line with reforms he oversaw as mayor of Buenos Aires province. The militarization of the fight against drugs trafficking and so-called “iron-fist” approaches to drug crime have provoked a violent backlash from criminal groups in several Latin American countries in the past decade, including Mexico, Brazil, Guatemala, El Salvador and Colombia.

International relations

Argentina’s international relations are also set to change, and Macri has announced that the government will invoke Mercosur’s democratic clause in a bid to suspend Venezuela from the regional bloc for the detention of opposition candidates. He has also announced a with China, suggesting a potential realignment in foreign policy to reduce heavy indebtedness to Beijing and the vast growth of yuan swap lines that have seen Chinese imports into Argentina rise significantly.

Macri has appointed the former cabinet chief for United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Susana Malcorra, as foreign minister, suggesting the government might seek to develop a more multilateral foreign policy. Initial indications from both the president and other appointees, including Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Fulvio Pompeo, have suggested that the government will also seek a approach to the issue of sovereignty of the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas). The government will maintain Argentina’s historic claim to the islands, but the strength of rhetoric toward the United Kingdom and hostility toward offshore oil and gas exploration is likely to subside. In a 1997 interview Macri said reacquisition of the islands would pose a financial burden to Argentina, and he has eliminated the government post of Falklands minister, which was introduced by Kirchner in 2013.

The appointment of UCR member Julio Martinez as minister of defense is also noteworthy. In March 2015, Martinez called the UK’s announcement that it would spend $423 million on bolstering its military presence on the island an inadmissible and intolerable provocation. Martinez has in the past called for greater recourse to international law in furthering Argentina’s claims in the territorial dispute, and he may seek to evoke nationalist sentiments over the issue when trying to rally support among his political supporters.

Key indicators of the new administration’s stance on the territorial dispute will be its position on legal cases filed in June 2015 against five companies drilling in the Falklands’ waters, and the government’s reaction to any resumption of drilling activity in 2016.

Macri’s ability to manage public and parliamentary sentiment on this issue will provide an early test for his administration, reflecting wider political challenges he will face at several stages throughout 2016. His ability to surmount these challenges will ultimately determine whether his ambitious reform program bears fruit.

*[This article is based on a report published by .]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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This week, Americans celebrated Thanksgiving. In a time-truncated society where people get a mere 15 days off and where distances are gargantuan, this national holiday is one of those rare times when families get together and enjoy a leisurely meal. No wonder Americans have warm and fuzzy feelings for the holiday season.

The origins of Thanksgiving are shrouded in myth. As per legend, a ship called Mayflower with 102 Pilgrims—devout Protestants persecuted in Stuart England—sailed the Atlantic in 66 days. Arriving in the winter of 1620, barely half made it to spring. Squanto, a Native American who had once been kidnapped by an English sea captain and sold to slavery, paid them a visit. He taught these malnourished refugees how to grow corn, make syrup from the sap of maple trees, fish in the rivers flowing nearby and avoid poisonous plants. In November 1621, these colonists invited their native hosts to a feast, inaugurating a great American tradition of Thanksgiving.

The reality is not quite as squeaky clean as the myth. White Americans certainly have a lot to be thankful for. have less reason for celebration. Fewer of them have survived north of the Rio Grande than south of it. Europeans arriving in America sought��lebensraum��or living space that the Nazis later craved in the 20^th��century. Even as Americans stuff themselves with turkey, few of them stop to think of the genocide of native populations, which enabled them to colonize a vast continent.

Europeans arrived in the New World as immigrants. Ironically, many of their descendants now oppose immigration and do not want to let in Syrian refugees. However, as��, this anti-refugee hysteria is nothing new. Once, the US����even as Adolf Hitler was about to launch World War II. Many of the Jews who returned to Europe did not survive the war. Today, Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News is hell bent on turning back refugees. It is painting refugees as terrorists in a country that is now terrified of its own shadow. Perhaps many Americans subconsciously expect refugees to do unto them what their ancestors did to the Native Americans.

Apart from its dark past, Thanksgiving has an ugly underbelly. It is the time of an orgy of consumerism. Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, inaugurates the country’s Christmas shopping season. This year, sales have fallen but still total $12.1 billion and do not include online sales. Online shopping and sales that begin as early as Halloween are said to be two key reasons for the fall in sales this year. Despite the fall in Thanksgiving sales, shopping figures are clear evidence of extreme materialism. Americans buy far too much stuff. To be fair, so do the Chinese and the rich Indians, but no one can compete with the Americans who are in a league of their own.

For all its faults, the US strides the world like a colossus. Its national debt may be over��, a touch more than its GDP of��. It may have launched an illegal, irrational and idiotic war against Iraq. It may have suffered a��. Its military might be��. Yet Hollywood and Harvard retain unrivaled luster in people’s imaginations from Shanghai to Sao Paulo. Tara Whitaker, an entrepreneur, financial analyst and historian, points out that the US might do well to gain a church even as its empire collapses. Some would argue that Hollywood and Harvard are the modern counterparts to the Roman Catholic Church. The����that Antonio Gramsci once talked about is now the prerogative of the US.

Others are copying the United States blindly. This is tragic. The 21^st��session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) is about to kick off in Paris. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) admits that America has the����in the world. At the heart of this malaise lies a broken system. Consumerism is the basis of much of urban society. People want more of everything, even if it is wasteful. The effect on the environment is catastrophic.

The year 2015 is the��. Apart from American politicians who believe that Mary was a virgin, others accept that climate change is real, man-made and highly dangerous. In Brazil, two dams collapsed after heavy rain, and a����has now reached the Atlantic Ocean. Many are calling it the worst environmental catastrophe in Brazil’s history. Glaciers are melting in the����and the poles. As��, sea levels are rising and weather patterns are becoming more difficult to predict.

As COP21 kicks off in Paris with pious homilies and good intentions, there is no hiding from the fact that the economic model that the US exemplifies has to be jettisoned. Even as the world frets about climate change, it is besotted with consumerism and its appetite for energy remains insatiable. Arvind Subramanian, India’s chief economic adviser, has come out with blazing guns against “.” Like many people from poorer countries, Subramanian suspects that rich countries are using environmental standards to keep poor countries down and out. The US and the rest of the rich world have to lead by example, learn to sacrifice and live more frugally. All talk of the environment will not go anywhere if the burden of preventing climate change falls disproportionately on the poor.

Many of the poor are already desperate and angry about injustice—perceived and real. They provide��fertile for violence and terror.����continue in Mexico, and the murder rate in Latin American countries like Honduras, Venezuela and Brazil remains . In Mali, gunmen killed over 20 people. Another 12 were killed on a bus for the presidential guard in Tunisia. Palestinians are spontaneously attacking Israelis with primitive kitchen knives, and the latter are retaliating in a disproportionate manner.

Not only individuals but also states like Russia and Turkey have turned violent. , leading to a fierce response from the Kremlin. These two former empires with rampant inflation, slowing economies and rising unemployment have long been rivals. Turkey, a NATO nation, is opposing Russia in Syria. Now, both of them are upping the ante.

The Turkish-Russian spat appears mild in comparison to yet another mass shooting in the US. On October 2, Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday,��The Guardian��pointed out that the US had��. This week, Planned Parenthood, a nonprofit that provides reproductive health services, was��, leaving three people dead and nine others injured in the process. Earlier this year, anti-abortion activists had whipped up frenzy against it, accusing it of selling aborted fetal tissue for medical research. Far-right Christian fundamentalists who have taken over the Republican Party��.

Since 1977, there have been��eight murders, 17 attempted murders, 42 bombings and 186 and providers in America. It is clear that the country has a homegrown terrorism problem. Fundamentalist Christians are attacking vulnerable health care providers to impose their version of medieval morality.

Finally, Argentina has voted in Mauricio Macri to be president. Macri is from a family of industrial tycoons and ran Boca Juniors, Argentina’s iconic football club. Macri was also the mayor of Buenos Aires and even his critics grudgingly admit he did a decent job. Now, his party controls the national capital, the provincial government of Buenos Aires and the national government. Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner,��the outgoing president, did not control the city or province of Buenos Aires. Along with her late husband, she��. At least for now, the Kirchner era of cheap rhetoric with the politics of empty symbolism is over.

Macri has set out to restore some semblance of confidence to Argentina’s economy. The statistics agency will regain its autonomy after years of fiddling with the numbers. Exchange controls will go and so will punitive taxation of farmers. Alfonso Prat-Gay, a respected former central bank chief, will be finance minister. Lino Baranao, a competent chap who served Kirchner, will stay on as minister of science, technology and innovation production.

Macri understands that he is governing a country where health and education is free. Despite the poverty and inflation that plague Argentina, this is country that veers left. Hence, Macri is sticking close to the center. He faces two major risks. First, the congress can throw a spoke in Macri’s wheel. Second, Argentina has critically low foreign reserves. Additionally, Argentina has defaulted on its debt. The commodity boom is over and Argentina has no manufacturing or technology prowess.

The Kirchners have left a toxic legacy and Argentina is a mess. To access global capital markets, to curb inflation and to generate jobs, Macri needs “the hand of god” like Diego Maradona.

*[You can receive “The World This Week” directly in your inbox by subscribing to our mailing list. Simply visit����and enter your email address in the space provided. Meanwhile, please find below five of our finest articles for the week.]

Downed Russian Jet Ratchets Tensions Between Ankara and Moscow

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Russia has a number of options open to escalate the situation without taking direct military action.

Turkey’s downing of a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 on November 24, after it had allegedly violated Turkish airspace while carrying out offensive operations over Syria, has resulted in a sharp escalation of tensions between Moscow and Ankara. The plane crashed in an area known as Jabal al-Turkman in the Syrian province of Latakia, which has been the scene of heavy fighting in recent months between Syrian forces backed by Russian warplanes and local��Turkmen militia, for whom Ankara has previously expressed solidarity.

Low-level tensions have been simmering since the start of Russia’s intervention in Syria in September, with Turkey having repeatedly complained of��airspace violations by Russian jets. The tensions have threatened to spill over into existing areas of cooperation between the two countries, including the major Turkish Stream gas pipeline that is intended to deliver gas to Europe while bypassing Ukraine. This sudden and dramatic escalation of tensions has posed concerns for the future…

Reframing and Preventing American Gun Violence

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Right-wing groups say that having good guys own and carry guns protects them from bad people. That is false.

On an average day,��85 Americans die��and more than 200 are rushed to the emergency room due to gun violence. An average week brings��one shooting at a school��and��one��shooting by a toddler. The implicit or explicit threat of gun violence has intimidated��African American students��at the University of Missouri,��legislators,��active��citizens,��mothers,��black��churchgoers��and Muslim community members.

Similar countries’ rate of homicides using firearms is about��20 times lower��than in the United States. Household firearms in just five weeks kill 3,400 Americans, the same number who have died from terrorist activity since 2001. Since 1968, 1.4 million Americans have died from gun violence. Since 1776, 1.4 million were killed in all wars (both recent��tweets by astrophysicist��Neil deGrasse Tyson.)

After the Umpqua Community College shooting in October, President Barack Obama bemoaned the “routine” coverage of mass shootings. Yet Americans are reinvigorated…

A Conversation With Yasir Qadhi on Paris, Terrorism and Islam

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In this edition of The Interview, 51�Թ� talks to Yasir Qadhi, one of America’s most influential Islamic theologians, clerics and intellectuals.

The attacks in Paris highlight the deep complexity and uncertainty that surrounds the 21^st��century. War and terrorism seem to be ubiquitous, and the competing narratives of politicians, pundits and experts have only further obfuscated our understanding of these situations. In the week since the Paris attacks, however, there has been a torrent of commentary focusing almost exclusively on the effects of��Daesh��(the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State or ISIS), and how it might impact on foreign policy and security. Yet there has been almost no conversation about the root causes that drive such violence and extremism in Europe or the Middle East.

Until that conversation has been exhausted, this kind of terrorism will inevitably become part of the��status quo. As a result, the recent epidemic of terrorism linked to��Daesh��in France, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey is hardly coincidental and should be…

Resolve, Not Rhetoric, Will Defeat the Islamic State

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Can the Islamic State be defeated from the air alone? The answer: no, it cannot.

It is impossible to understand, let alone read, the torrent of commentary, analysis and just plain venting that has followed the��unspeakable tragedy in Paris��on November 13. No one could be blamed for simply tuning out. How much human suffering inflicted for apparently wanton cause can one person tolerate?

But confront the tragedy of��Paris—and let us not forget Ankara,��Beirut, the skies over the Sinai, and Baghdad—we must.

Throughout our history, humanity has had to confront evil as perpetrated by one against another. On a grand scale over sometimes-inordinate periods of time, good—or something better than the evil it opposed—has usually prevailed.

Whether one chooses to attribute that to divine providence or mere survival, triumph of good over evil has been the case. But it is only true when the forces of good take concerted, determined action, with all the sacrifices that may entail, to confront evil…

China is Losing its Southeast Asian Friends

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While China has been gaining territory in the South China Sea, it has been losing amity among its allies in Southeast Asia.

Territorial spats between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors over Beijing’s infamous “nine-dash line” dotted across the South China Sea have substantially soured the mood of its allies.

China’s insistence to play by its own rules, especially in the case of the Spratly, Paracel and Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, has put Beijing at loggerheads with virtually all littoral countries in the region and, farther afield, with the United States. As a result, the fact that China has chosen to go its own way regarding territorial claims has become a burr under the saddle of many of its once loyal allies.

Malaysia provides a particularly good example of China’s alienation of its friends over the South China Sea. China’s incursions in Malaysia’s territorial waters have increased in frequency since 2009, when it began to more stringently adhere to the informal “nine-dash-line” area established in 1947. For many years, Malaysia considered itself…

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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The post The World This Week: Thanksgiving, Climate Change and Argentina appeared first on 51�Թ�.

Three developments were of particular importance in February. First, turmoil continued in the Middle East and Africa. Second, fighting in Ukraine ended in a ceasefire. Third, corruption took center stage in Britain and Latin America.

In the Middle East and Africa, Islamism is challenging existing power structures. Both the Islamic State (IS) and Boko Haram have launched spectacular attacks and committed brutal atrocities. Arbitrary colonial states with centralized bureaucracies have long failed their people. Patronage has long been dispensed in national capitals on ethnic or personal grounds. During the Cold War, marginalized groups revolted on purportedly ideological grounds. Now, rebellion is explicitly based on ethnicity and justified by religion. Despite the combined efforts of many states and regular air strikes, IS and Boko Haram continue to thrive.

Disillusioned Muslims from Europe are heading to the Middle East to join IS. “Jihadi John” is British and three teenage girls left London to join people like him. In a continent where racism has long been rife, unemployment, inequality and segregated ghettos create powerful breeding grounds for radicalism. For instance, French banlieues and British council estates are by deprivation. Crime and drug abuse is rife in deracinated communities where traditional social structures have broken down. Charismatic clerics with a call tempt youngsters to fight for justice, righteousness and God.

In Ukraine, fighting has ceased. Europe and the United States who wanted self-determination for Ukraine found themselves in a bind when Russians in the eastern part of the country claimed the same right. The presence of xenophobes in Kiev and Russian fears of encirclement swelled the ranks of rebels. Russian President Vladimir Putin is a former KGB officer and he shrewdly supported the rebels. Ukrainian troops were weighed, measured and found wanting.

More importantly, the US is too busy shifting its focus to Asia. It is also war weary after Afghanistan and Iraq. Aging Europe is far too fond of la dolce vita and has no stomach for body bags. The crisis over Greece is threatening to derail Europe’s economy and even destroy the euro. The charismatic new finance minister of Greece has declared himself to be an “erratic Marxist” with little love for “repugnant European capitalism.” Indebted European nations are chafing under austerity while creditor nations like Germany insist that their rights are inviolable. Europe has no money to spare for Ukraine and does not want Ukrainian refugees. To quote the Bard of Avon, its “vaulting ambition, which o’erleaps itself” has fallen on the other side of the saddle. Therefore, Europe has made peace with Russia — at least for now.

In Britain, its banks are yet again in . An economy dominated by the City of London is not yet free from peril. The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has reported a loss of $5.8 billion for 2014. It is still majority-owned by taxpayers. In reality, this means the bank is still being bailed out by the common man. Standard Chartered is wobbling and has axed its old chief executive to import a new one who once worked for JP Morgan. The cream of the crop is HSBC, which has long been renowned for its prudence and sound financial management. Now, it has acquired a reputation for dodgy tax evasion.

David Cameron © Shutterstock

Leaked documents have revealed that helped clients ferret away $120 billion in secret Swiss bank accounts. British Prime Minister David Cameron claimed he and his ministers only learnt about this when the matter came out in the papers. Reports suggest this is false. Cameron has long had a reputation for “mendaciousness” and once worked in the shadowy world of financial public relations. He was a touch too close to Rupert Murdoch’s disgraced lackeys involved in the News of the World scandal. Now, Cameron has been found in bed with HSBC bigwigs. Stephen Green, a former chairman of HSBC, was his trade minister, and Rona Fairhead, the former chair of HSBC’s audit committee, is the big boss of the BBC Trust.

While the whiff of scandal surrounds Cameron, Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Jack Straw, two former foreign secretaries, have been caught red-handed with their fingers in the cookie jar. Both have been caught in a media sting promising a fake Chinese firm that they could provide access to British ambassadors. Central offices of political parties have centralized power in Britain. This means that bigwigs have both temptation and opportunity to err. Public benefit is frequently sacrificed at the altar of private gain, and elites have become entrenched again in the class-divided land.

In Latin America, weakened political leaders in Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. In Mexico, the president and one of his colleagues got mansions built by a construction company they had benefited. Mexicans have reacted with ferocious criticism. In Brazil, the Petrobas saga continues. Money from this national oil giant has apparently found its way to the ruling party’s coffers. Petrobas has been downgraded to junk. The Brazilian economy is taking a hit and President Dilma Rousseff will face an impeachment march on March 15. Finally, the matter is being investigated and that is terrific for a still-young democracy. The same cannot be said for .

The land of Diego Maradona and Lionel Messi has long been a case study for what can go wrong with an economy. Once, it was the tenth largest in the world. Today, it is dogged by scandal and in disarray. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner succeeded her husband to power, and all power is now concentrated in her hands. Her government has faced many scandals but has retained power through populist short-term subsidies. Investment in education and infrastructure has been neglected. Institutions, never strong in Argentina, have been further weakened. Finally, more than 400,000 people marched in pouring rain to protest against a thoroughly incompetent ��government and this might be the start of a long overdue Argentine renewal.

As always, we invite you to send us articles, videos, infographics, cartoons and more. Click to become a contributor. Meanwhile, please find below our finest articles for February.

[seperator style=”style1″]1: A Love Letter to Young American Muslims[/seperator]

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In��a letter to American Muslims, Maria Khwaja Bazi reflects on rising Islamophobia and the murders of Deah, Yusor and Razan in Chapel Hill.

Dear MSA kids,

I was 17 on September 11, 2001. It was fall of my senior year of high school, and I was worried about a US History exam. I wore a scarf and performed the afternoon prayer in our school’s library.

They wheeled a TV with a live news broadcast into our room. I looked at the person next to me, a handsome Greek junior, for reassurance, but his eyes were on the screen, watching the Twin Towers fall over and over again. All I remember is Ms. Thompson, our history teacher, repeating, “Things will never be the same.”

They never were. The next day, in a local sandwich shop with my two (white) best friends, a lady threw a glass at me and screamed, “Go home, we don’t want you here!”��I am home, I wanted to tell her,��I am home.

[seperator style=”style1″]2: Saudi Arabia and Oman Have Different Experiences With Extremism[/seperator]

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Saudi Arabia and Oman possess differing national identities, varied social and cultural roots, and divergent approaches to tolerance that may explain their different experiences with extremism.

The Kingdom of��Saudi Arabia��and��Sultanate of��Oman��share significant characteristics: language; basic religious heritage; geographic proximity; a remarkably rapid growth in economic development and prosperity; a dependence on oil and gas income; and elements of Bedouin and tribal culture.

However, there are significant differences. And it is those differences, when viewed in light of those foundational similarities, that may account for the two countries’ differing experiences with violent extremism.

The importance of these nations to and of their relationships with the United States and the West is well-known. Moreover, those relationships with the US are historic. With Saudi Arabia, these ties date back to just a few years after the founding of the modern state in 1932, while��Oman’s began just a few decades after the founding of America.

[seperator style=”style1″]3: In the Midst of a Revolution, The X Factor Meets The Apprentice[/seperator]

© Bamyan Media

How do you tackle social and environmental problems and make money at the same time?

Tired of reality TV shows focusing on Kim Kardashian or some other pointless celebrity? Ever think reality TV could be a little deeper? Thankfully, you’re not alone. A groundbreaking, new “edutainment,” reality TV show that launched in late 2013 in��Egypt��has skillfully harnessed the power of mainstream media to ask some bigger questions of its audience, such as: How do you tackle social and environmental problems and make money at the same time?

Combining some of the best aspects of��The X Factor,��The Apprentice��and Ashoka’s Changemakers,��El Mashrou3��(The Project, in Arabic) is the first-ever reality TV show about business and social entrepreneurs in the Middle East.

Produced by Bamyan Media, a social enterprise that specializes in creating impact-oriented television shows for social change in the developing world,��El Mashrou3��is an innovative and original formatted reality TV show that brings together 14 young contestants…

[seperator style=”style1″]4: Sex: Stone Age Mind in a Modern-Day World?[/seperator]

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To what extent is our sexual behavior determined by evolutionary psychology?

Everyone is familiar with the feeling of utter exasperation with the opposite sex. How common are phrases like “Women, I just don’t get them” or “It’s just another one of those ‘guy things.’” From our ability to park a car, find directions on a map, deal with a crisis situation or maintain a healthy relationship, we often feel that there is a gap between the sexes. The human race has been involved in building bridges across the tumultuous rapids of sexual differences for time immemorial.

Yet there is science behind these societal myths. Notions like free will, rational choice and basic physical attraction are influenced by the nature of our biology, going back to the earliest time of human development. Are men really more likely to cheat? Why is female sexuality more fluid? Can men and women really be friends?

In this interview, Anna Pivovarchuk talks to Professor Barry Kuhle, an evolutionary psychologist, about the science behind our sexual norms.

[seperator style=”style1″]5: Those Who Never Came Home From Lebanon’s Civil War[/seperator]

© Raha Askarizadeh

Twenty-five��years after the Lebanese Civil War,��families of 17,000 missing��people��still have no information about the fate of their loved��ones.

It was four months after the disappearance of Alexander Salloum in Beirut in August 1985. The telephone rang in the house where he used to live with his elderly father. Alexander’s father took the phone and heard his son’s voice saying, “Allo, papa, papa …,” then the connection went dead. Jeannine, Alexander’s younger sister, recalls that day and says that one year later her father died of grief over his missing son.

No one knows why Alexander’s car was stopped near the Green Line, which separated East from West Beirut during��Lebanon’s civil war between 1975-90. There is no information about the affiliation of militias who abducted him and two of his colleagues.

After 30��years of searching for her missing��sibling, Jeannine guesses that her brother was transferred to��Syria��and his kidnappers let him call his father because that was his last day in Lebanon.

We bring you perspectives from around the world. Help us to inform and educate. Your is tax-deductible. Join over 400 people to become a or you could choose to be a .

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Once upon a time, not a very long time ago, was the tenth richest economy in the world. A hundred years ago, the glorious Retiro railway station came into being. From 1871 to 1914, the Argentine economy had grown by 6% every year, the fastest in the world. European migrants flocked to the land of the Pampas, the bounteous plains that bless Argentina with bumper crops and exquisite beef. Perhaps most importantly, during the country’s Belle Époque, Argentines could look down on , their pesky northern neighbors, as poorer cousins lacking the racial purity or macho virility of their great nation.

Today, the country is ruled with an iron fist by President , who is the successor to her late husband. A federal judge has just thrown out a case in which she is accused of covering up alleged Iranian involvement in a bomb attack against a Jewish center in 1994. , the prosecutor who made the accusation, was conveniently found dead in his apartment. More than 400,000 people marched in pouring rain to protest. What is going on?

At the heart of the Argentine situation is a simple problem: Those in power find it addictive and resort to any means to hold onto it. Even at the height of its economic boom in 1914, Argentina suffered from concentration of power. Unlike the prairie homestead in North America or the settler farmer in Australia, nouveau aristocrats owned most of the land. Investment in education was neglected, and Argentina failed to develop a highly skilled labor force or a viable domestic industry. Its food exports swelled coffers of landholders but caused Dickensian misery to the working classes of Buenos Aires. When Argentina’s triple bet “on agriculture, open markets and Britain soured,” the smoldering social volcano erupted and led to a military coup in 1930. There were more coups in 1943, 1955, 1962, 1966 and 1976.

Juan Perón, the most charismatic of Argentina’s military leaders, continues to cast a dark shadow on the country. His two goals of social justice and economic independence were laudable, and many of his policies such as centralizing the central bank were sensible. However, he suffered the familiar Latin American curse of the caudillo and resorted to populism to stay in power. Evita, his second wife, remains an icon and Isabel, his third wife, even succeeded him as president. The Kirchners with their expedient populism and concentration of power are worthy successors to the Perons. Instead of investing in infrastructure and education, they have doled out subsidies and dispensed patronage. Power is far too valuable an aphrodisiac and those who live in La Casa Rosada, the grand presidential palace, have no intention of sharing it.

Great , once Argentina’s biggest trading partner and investor, is well past greatness. Now, two former foreign secretaries, Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Jack Straw, have been caught in a media sting promising a fake Chinese firm that they could provide access to British ambassadors. At the heart of the “cash for access” scandal is the increasing concentration of power in British politics. The days of mavericks in parliament are over. Instead, a few bigwigs decide on the destiny of Britain and when they say “jump,” party members respond by asking “how high?” The current government is run by Old Etonians, alumni of the infamously elitist school where people like Prince William studied. The headquarters of both the Conservative and Labour parties have been growing in power. This means that the likes of Rifkind and Straw can command exorbitant fees for peddling influence.

Jack Straw and Condoleezza Rice © Shutterstock

The concentration of power in Britain is not confined to politics. Thatcher sacrificed Britain’s industry on the altar of finance. The City of London, the square mile where bankers and lawyers in pin-striped suits work in impressive edifices, commands a disproportionate share of the British economy. The country does not have the equivalent of the Mittelstand, the small industries in little towns that form the backbone of the German economy. Instead, banks like the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Standard Chartered and HSBC provide the backbone of the British economy. They are in trouble. RBS is still majority-owned by the British taxpayer. In 2014, it reported a loss of $5.8 billion, its seventh consecutive annual loss. Standard Chartered got rid of its chief executive. HSBC is involved in a major scandal involving tax evasion and ferreting away cash in Swiss banks. Its chief executive was subjected to mild questioning by a parliamentary committee.

The fundamental issue here is private gain and public loss. Most people believe that those in power are benefiting their cronies or just selling out to the highest bidder. So, voters are turning to parties like UKIP. Disenfranchised immigrants are convinced that the system is rigged against them. Radicalization occurs when “a cleric with a cause” inspires people like and the three East London girls to join organizations like the . People in Britain are disillusioned, disheartened and angry. At a time of increasing inequality, the elites might have to share some power with les sans culottes again.

Even as this is being published, xenophobic attacks on foreigners have occurred in , another shooting took place in the and a blogger campaigning for a secular society has been hacked to death. These are turbulent times unless you are lucky to live in a place like Silicon Valley and are attending the Wisdom 2.0 Conference in San Francisco.

You can receive “The World This Week” directly in your inbox by subscribing to our mailing list. Simply visit and enter your email address in the space provided. Meanwhile, please find below five of our finest articles for the week.

[seperator style=”style1″]Who’s Marching in Argentina?[/seperator]

© Rodrigo Llauro

With the president under investigation for corruption, the year ahead will be an interesting moment for Argentina.

Argentine politics have never been straightforward. A tangled string of opinions, views, emotions and realities have shaped the official and unofficial histories of a country that still fights to understand its identity.

During the reign of the Kirchner family, Argentina’s diversity of opinion has become polarized. The multiplicity of thought that led the country to countless versions of Peronism has now led this outspoken society to face an “us vs. them” scenario. Some believe they are living under a corrupt demagogue government, while others argue that the rest of society serves the interests of imperialist neo-capitalist regimes. In other words, you are either in favor of the populist Kirchnerist project or you are anti-patriotic.

This divide is clear in every facet of Argentine politics and “The Silent March” was no exception. The protest held on February 18 was organized to honor the death of prosecutor Alberto Nisman…

[seperator style=”style1″]The Islamic State Cannot Be Defeated Without Iran[/seperator]

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The US can work with Iran to defeat the Islamic State, or it can isolate Iran and risk provoking conflict on two fronts.

Once more into the breach, dear friends, once more — and with that, we will yet again authorize war in Mesopotamia. There is no doubt that the Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) to wage war against the Islamic State (IS) will pass Congress.

According to a recent CNN/ORC poll, 78% of all Americans support the use of military force, which should come as no surprise. We are, after all, heavily invested in the idea of war, especially in places where we fail to grasp the underlying causes of conflict, like Iraq and Syria. The crowdsourced Twitter campaign from the Department of State, seeking solutions to fight terrorism, probably confirms this.

Waging war against IS, however, is a Faustian bargain and one that will inevitably challenge some, if not all, of our more established foreign policy positions on the Middle East.

[seperator style=”style1″]Despite Problems, Greece’s Economy Has Growth Potential[/seperator]

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Greece’s future needs to be underpinned by a credible plan that focuses on private sector-led growth, argues former Prime Minister John Bruton.

It is important to note that the recession in Greece has been much deeper than expected by those who agreed the original bailout package in 2010 — a 25% fall in output against a predicted 7% drop. The budgetary adjustments have been bigger than in other bailout countries.

It must be acknowledged that when Greece was bailed out by European governments and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the ultimate beneficiaries included banks — not only in Europe, but also elsewhere. These banks had been lending to the Greek government long after they should have stopped doing so, and they have forced Greece to confront reality. They assumed that, because Greece was in the euro, someone, somewhere would ensure they were repaid.

Yes, some of the banks, who were thus saved from their errors, were indeed German. But many of the banks that were rescued from their…

[seperator style=”style1″]Sexual Sharing in Malay Polygamy[/seperator]

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Sexual sharing within polygamous marriages in urban Malaysia is a tricky business.

The sexual relationship between husband and wife is one of the most contentious aspects of life in Malay Muslim polygamous unions. It can cause great strife and misery among co-wives. At issue is husband sharing, a polygamous husband’s obligatory equal distribution of his physical attention between all his wives. As with other aspects of polygamy, what is prescribed is not necessarily what is practiced, and hence the perspectives and experiences of first and subsequent wives can differ substantially with regard to sex.

Malays technically practice polygyny – a plural marriage in which a man is permitted more than one wife at a time. In Malaysia, the right to polygamy is based on Islam, which conditionally allows a Muslim man to marry up to four wives. I use the term polygamy, however, as this is used in daily conversation and legal texts in Malaysia. Some elite Malay men have three or four wives…

[seperator style=”style1″]The Real Winner of the Ukraine Crisis Could Be China[/seperator]

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US and European policy is pushing Russia into China’s arms.

The crisis in Ukraine has plunged US-Russian relations to their lowest point since the Cold War. Crimea is now Russian territory. Although prisoners of war have been exchanged and both sides have agreed to pull back heavy weapons, the accord signed on February 12 in Minsk has failed so far to stop the fighting in eastern Ukraine. The city of Debaltseve has fallen into the hands of separatists. On February 22, a bomb exploded at a rally in Ukraine’s second largest city of Kharkiv, killing two people — the suspects are accused by the Ukrainian government as having been trained in Russia.

For Washington, the conflict between the West and Russia has become much more than a battle over Ukraine’s territorial integrity. It has become a provocation to the Western liberal international order that the US worked hard to create at the end of the Cold War; an order based on democracy…

We bring you perspectives from around the world. Help us to inform and educate. Your is tax-deductible. Join over 400 people to become a or you could choose to be a .

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

Photo Credit: / ��/��

The post The World This Week: Power is the Ultimate Aphrodisiac appeared first on 51�Թ�.

For years, countries in were ruled by military dictators. Finally, democracy is taking root. Now, these countries are facing the perpetual questions that every democracy has to confront. How does a democracy further public interest when there are contending interests jockeying for power? How do political parties find funding to fight elections? How do voters ensure that politicians who get elected do not line their pockets or further the interests of those who fund them? This week, three Latin American countries confronted these questions in all their starkness.

In , the long-running Petrobas scandal claimed its biggest scalp. Maria das Graças Foster, its chief executive, has resigned along with five other senior colleagues. Petrobas is a state-controlled oil giant that has long had a cozy nexus with politicians. The recent scandal pertains to claims that Petrobas asked construction companies to cough up billions of dollars. Some of this money found its way to political parties, including the Workers’ Party. Both President and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, her predecessor, belong to this party and have been excessively favorable to Petrobas. The question of propriety and public interest will play out messily in Brazil over the coming days.

In , it is President Enrique Peña Nieto himself who faces scrutiny. He, his wife and his finance minister are under pressure for allegedly deriving inappropriate if not illegal benefits from contractors. In November, a news website run by Carmen Aristegui, a leading Mexican journalist, that Grupo Higa had built a mansion for Peña Nieto and his wife, a former soap opera star. The mansion is valued at $7 million, a bit more than 1% of the $652 million contracts Grupo Higa won from 2005-11 when Peña Nieto was governor of Mexico State. It turns out that Finance Minister Luis Videgaray has also purchased a large weekend home from Grupo Higa for a suspiciously low price. People suspect that this is payback for the $3.7 billion high-speed rail contract that it recently won as part of a Chinese-led consortium.

Peña Nieto announced an investigation into the matter but complained when it was not met with applause. Pent up fury broke out against him, with #YaSeQueNoAplauden (I know that they don’t clap) becoming the trending topic on Twitter. Already, much of the country is furious with the government. In 2014, the police intercepted 43 student protesters who later went missing. It brought to a head widespread dissatisfaction with corruption, which many believe is the root cause of the lawlessness and violence afflicting Mexico. Mexicans see Peña Nieto as being unconcerned about corruption or violence that is blighting their lives. The truth is that state structures are rotten. The police are often worse than drug lords and courts simply do not function. Mexico is a young democracy that needs vigorous debate and institutions that work. Until 1997, Peña Nieto’s party ruled the country for 71 years. The fact that he is being hauled over the coals is a jolly good thing for Mexican democracy.

Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and Felipe Calderon / Flickr

Latin America is known for melodramatic soap operas, but all of them pale in comparison to events unfolding in . In January, prosecutor Alberto Nisman was found dead. He was investigating the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. Nisman had accused President of covering up Iran’s role in the bombing. This week, it emerged that he had drafted a warrant for the arrest of Kirchner. This is Argentina and so the plot is thickening. A former spymaster wanted in connection with Nisman’s death has gone missing.

The truth in such matters is rarely clear and never simple. However, in most decent democracies, inconvenient prosecutors and grizzled spooks do not usually die or go missing. Argentina is blessed by the bounties of nature with fertile soil and had the tenth highest per capita income in 1913. Decades of profligate Perónist populism has decimated the country’s economy. Concentration of power under the Kirchner couple has broken the spirit of a country that has never been able to shrug off the shadow of caudillos ruling the roost. Democracy is not deep in Argentina, and the country will remain a cursed place until it develops institutions that function.

In the Middle East, the (IS) beheaded a Japanese journalist and burned alive a Jordanian fighter pilot. It released gruesome videos of both events. Some claim that these are brilliant if inhuman tactics by an insurgent group that lacks the men, money and equipment of state actors. By shocking and scaring its enemies, it saps their will and draws new recruits. Others hold that this gratuitous violence is a product of irrational fanaticism. It will lead to a backlash and cause the eventual downfall of IS. Already, the burning of the pilot has caused outrage. executed two suspects in retaliation. Its pilots unleashed air strikes on IS in both and . More Jordanians support the fight against IS. Yet many are scared and a long drawn out battle awaits.

In Africa, , a jihadist group that has sworn allegiance to IS, launched its first attack in Niger. This followed close on the heels of its slaughter of 70 people in a Cameroonian town. Boko Haram has killed thousands and displaced millions in the northeast of . This week, troops from Chad and Cameroon attacked Boko Haram bases with support from French jets. They claimed to have killed 250 militants, but it is clear that the group can punch back. Colonial state structures in West Africa seem to be crumbling in the face of millenarian ferocity, setting the stage for a protracted conflict.

In Europe, French President and German Chancellor are meeting Russian President as hostilities escalate in Ukraine. The pro-Russian rebel leader has announced that he would be expanding his militia to 100,000 men. It is an open secret that Russia is arming the rebels and testing new weapons. Moscow is increasing its military expenditure even as its economy is plummeting and its population is declining. Worryingly, it is increasing its nuclear arsenal. Russian fears of decline and dismemberment have been exacerbated by US actions. With US President sticking with his Asia Pivot policy, indebted and aging European states might find that a raging civil war to their east might be too hot to handle. Hence, Hollande and Merkel, who thoroughly dislike each other, have teamed up to visit Moscow in the hope that Putin can be persuaded to make peace.

You can receive “The World This Week” directly in your inbox. Please click����to subscribe. You can also sign up to our “Daily Brief” on the same��. Meanwhile, please find below five of our finest articles for the week.

[seperator style=”style1″]Iceland Will Not Join the European Union[/seperator]

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An exclusive 51�Թ� interview with former Icelandic Foreign Minister Jon Baldvin Hannibalsson.

We usually don’t find it making the headlines, but Iceland is a nation that has struggled with the question of whether to join the European Union (EU) or not. It has historically played a significant role in regional developments and made important contributions to security and democracy in Europe.

Along with Haiti, Mauritius, Monaco, Panama and Vanuatu, Iceland is one of few countries that have no standing army but a limited military. It has been Iceland’s policy to not maintain an army since 1869, however, it is an active and founding member of NATO and joined the Atlantic coalition in 1949.

Iceland is an official candidate to join the EU, even though its former foreign minister, Jon Baldvin Hannibalsson, believes the Nordic country will not unite with the European alliance in the foreseeable future.��

[seperator style=”style1″]US Intervention in Ukraine Risks Further Conflict[/seperator]

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The US is considering whether to arm the Ukrainian military, however, such a move could provoke further escalation of the conflict.

Despite numerous attempts to enforce the ceasefire agreement reached in Minsk in September 2014, the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine is deteriorating. On January 23, Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, rejected any prospect of a truce, and the separatists’ unwillingness to enter negotiations forced the abandonment of peace talks in Belarus a week later.

Kiev has echoed a separatist pledge to conduct a major recruitment drive, as separatist forces continue their assault on the city of Debaltseve. The city is strategically located between the separatist strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk, and its fall would represent a major victory for the pro-Russia forces. The level of the separatists’ territorial ambitions was perhaps indicated by their brief attack on Mariupol on January 24, a city that lies on the road to Russian-controlled Crimea.

[seperator style=”style1″]West Beats the Drum for War, While Russia Plays Games in Ukraine[/seperator]

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Arming pro-Kiev forces would be a huge mistake, argues Adam Swain.

In recent weeks, eastern Ukraine’s Russian-backed rebels have won several military victories on the battlefield in the Ukrainian Donbas. First, they captured the virtually destroyed Donetsk airport, then they pushed back the front lines, taking more territory. Now, they look set to secure Debaltseve, strategically located between the rebel-held cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.

The warfare has taken a terrible toll on Ukrainians on both sides of the “demarcation line.” More than 5,300 people have now been killed and over 1 million displaced. The Minsk Agreement of September 2014 has obviously failed.

It is clear the Russian-backed rebels want to fight Ukrainian forces to carve out a viable statelet in the east of the country. The prime minster of the Donetsk Peoples’ Republic (DNR), Aleksandr Zakharchenko, has for months declared his intention to retake cities overrun by Ukrainian forces in July 2015, such as Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

[seperator style=”style1″]American Sniper and The Interview: Hollywood’s “Furriner” Problem[/seperator]

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In films like American Sniper and The Interview, Americans are the heroes and “furriners” are the targets — an undifferentiated group of people so alien that they’re practically subhuman.

I was waiting to buy a ticket to see the new film American Sniper when the guy next to me provided a capsule review. It was a fantastic movie, he told me. The main character, Chris Kyle, was a great guy, and the film really showed what the war over there was like. “And the Taliban are evil,” he added. “They were just doing terrible things, using kids to throw bombs and stuff.”

The fellow told me that the movie had inspired him to look up more information about Chris Kyle on the Internet and learn about his tragic death. But despite this additional research, he still believed that Kyle was fighting against the Taliban. In fact, American Sniper is about Kyle’s four tours in Iraq.

[seperator style=”style1″]Three-Person IVF: Science Shows Ethical Questions Remain Unanswered[/seperator]

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Britain could become a pioneer in helping those with mitochondrial disease.

Diseases caused by genetic mutations in the mitochondria — the powerhouses of the cell — can be disabling or even deadly. That is why mitochondrial replacement therapy (MRT), otherwise also known as three-person IVF (in vitro fertilization), is being touted as a much-needed option for women carrying mitochondrial mutations.

Most genes in a cell are trapped in the nucleus, but a tiny fraction are present in the mitochondria, too. When eggs are fertilized, the genes in the nucleus of the egg combine with the genes in the nucleus of the sperm to create a new cell. However, mitochondrial genes do not undergo this mixing and are passed on from mother to child.

The idea behind three-person IVF is to find a way of replacing the mitochondrial genes in an affected egg cell before they are passed on to the child.

We bring you perspectives from around the world. Help us to inform and educate. Your����is tax-deductible. Join over 400 people to become a����or you could choose to be a��.

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Photo Credit: ��/

The post The World This Week: Democracy is Messy appeared first on 51�Թ�.

Amid an important devaluation of its currency, and with its central bank rapidly losing reserves, Argentina is entering a critical stage as it attempts to avoid a new economic crisis. In November 2013, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner decided to limit her public appearances and delegate to new ministers. Economy Minister Axel Kicilloff and Chief Minister Jorge Capitanich were tasked with revising the economic course of a government that is starting to show weaknesses. Today, not only is the Argentine public worried, but so too is the international community.

Consumption Over Growth

The forced devaluation of Argentina’s official exchange rate, restrictions on the currency exchange market, inflation, and flaws in transport and infrastructure are the worst sides of an economic model that has prioritized consumption over sustainable growth. International reflect that since 2003, the Kirchners’ economic policies have been based on high levels of public expenditure, subsidies and soaring levels of consumption, which have helped the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) increase at a surprising rate.

However, politicians and economists knew this model would not last forever. By maintaining a high growth rate and high levels of consumption, much needed changes that should have accompanied Argentina’s progress were put off. Plans to upgrade the country’s infrastructure, as well as adopting incentives on private investment and programs for a better exploitation of Argentina’s natural resources were shelved. In 2006, Néstor Kirchner’s former economic minister had :

“There’s a big risk [in decisions that the presidential office has to make], that is to accumulate mistakes that won’t be noticed in the short-term … I don’t know which is the course of politics, but I can notice a temptation to give easy subsidies or to assume from the public sector investments that could be done by the private sector.”

From 2008, the ruling party has covered its deficiencies with a set of unorthodox measures that have aimed to keep economic variables balanced, but at the same time undermine the government’s credibility. The Argentine government has altered its official statistic indexes; forced price agreements with the private sector; created restrictions on imports and the currency exchange market; expropriated an oil company, Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales; and implemented diverse measures in order to maintain good levels of consumption and growth.

The outlook does not look good with a president that has decided to take a back seat. Argentines are beginning to think that Fernandez is out of touch and has no strategy in place whatsoever.��

But a very high international soybean price and the discovery of new energy resources in the province of Neuquén (Vaca Muerta) encouraged the government to incorrectly assume that adjustments were not needed. Until 2013, rises in salaries exceeded inflation rates, even by the private sector’s standards. The Kirchners’ economic model remained successful, although it was increasingly convoluted and complex. However, none of these solutions resolved the real problem.

Following the re-election of President Fernandez in 2011, cracks began to surface: a widening deficit; the failure of local industries to meet demand; deficient and outdated infrastructure; and a lack of investment in the labor market. Over time, Argentina’s growth was simply not enough to sustain the country’s demands. In fact, since 2010, Argentina has spent millions of dollars from its central bank reserves on trying to import energy, as big cities and industries have suffered power outages. Moreover, on February 22, 2012, a tragic in one of Buenos Aires’ train stations left 52 people dead. Evidence later showed the train had an outdated braking system, while the station had poorly constructed barriers that failed to stop the incoming train. A lack of investment and high levels of corruption are still being by local authorities.

Even worse, economists often agree that growth generates certain levels of inflation. This phenomenon is natural and controlled when growth is sustainable and part of a solid economic strategy. But when growth is based only on consumption, high inflation ends up being a very bad symptom for a country. According to by Argentine opposition parties, inflation in 2013 stood at 28%, one of the highest in the world. For the current year, union representatives have already declared they will not accept less than a 30% increase in salaries.

During the first quarter of 2014, the government decided to devaluate its currency and remove some controls it had introduced to ban Argentines from exchanging pesos into dollars. Furthermore, efforts are being made to obtain international credit but first, Argentina must strike a deal with its existing creditors. Recently, an was signed with the Paris Club in expectation that this will pave the way for new loans.

An Out of Touch President?

Another landmark in terms of international debt and access to credit will be the decision that the US Supreme Court has to make in a case between the government and a fund that holds Argentine debt. Argentina has already that losing the case could force a new default. On the other hand, if the country manages to win that case, the situation could change significantly.

However, for the region and the country will be high, if Argentina manages to fix its economy with a solid plan. The current economic situation was self-generated by an irresponsible policy that needs to be corrected by the Fernandez government. A key task��will be to��regain credibility in the eyes of the international community, private investors and among its own population. In failing to do so, no economic plan will be able to save Argentina from a new economic crisis that could have a catastrophic impact on the nation. The most difficult thing for the government will be to retrace all of its bad decisions and rebuild confidence.

The outlook does not look good with a president that has decided to take a back seat. Argentines are beginning to think that Fernandez is out of touch and has no strategy in place whatsoever. National elections will be held next year and the president could very well suffer a loss at the polls. The result will be determined by the way Fernandez’s administration handles the economic crisis.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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This week, the world remembered . Nelson Mandela was a man for . He combined courage with compassion to lead South Africa to a new beginning. The apartheid-scarred land emerged as the Rainbow Nation and though huge problems persist, it is only because of Mandela that the country avoided civil war. We need more leaders like him in the 21^st century.

After the crisis and acrimony of recent times, Democrats and Republicans got together to hammer out a two-year . This is terrific news for the US economy. In the short run, it avoids another government shutdown and the specter of default by the US government. In the long run, it raises hopes of a grand bargain in the future where a combination of tax increases and spending cuts on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security could put the US on a sound financial footing. That will have to wait until the 2014 elections are over. For now, there have been minor cuts in some payments to those who provide Medicare treatment and an increase in fees on airlines, and the business of government can go on.

The was finally passed. It has been subject to much delay and great wrangling but will now take effect. The rule derives from the voluminous Dodd-Frank Act and is named after the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, who earned his reputation busting inflation in the 1980s. The rule bars banks from speculating with their own money. It completes the process of financial reform triggered by Dodd-Frank. Although the rule is complex and ambiguous, with the word “reasonable” appearing in numerous places — and while it will certainly be challenged in courts — banks at least have some certainty about the limits placed on them.

With the enactment of the Volcker Rule, the post-economic crisis regulatory overhaul is largely complete. There are now guidelines about dismantling large financial institutions, derivatives trading, bank’s capital requirements, and risky mortgages. It remains to be seen if such an onerous, complex, and poorly drafted set of regulations will work. “Too big to fail” is even bigger to fail. To quote Jesse Eisinger, the economy is and the reforms just tinker with the existing system. When the next crisis occurs, more fundamental reforms will be needed.

The biggest technology companies, including Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Twitter and Apple, called for a . They want clear legal rules and enhanced review by the courts. It is less an act of conscience and more of an attempt to regain the trust of the public. The increase in state surveillance certainly needs rolling back. However, the big issue is not only the information which the government gathers but what these big technology companies themselves possess. There is increasing unease that a society of “big brothers” is developing, while the right to privacy is being diluted both by the government and by technology giants.

Two further trends are important. The US Congress wants  over new arms export rules. The White House is resisting. At heart is the clash between the idealism of avoiding the flow of arms to conflict zones and the realism of boosting competitiveness for arms exports. It will be interesting to see how the US resolves this eternal dilemma. US oil consumption in November rose to a . This means that the US economy might be chugging back to a recovery and 2014 is likely to see an increase in oil prices.

Uruguay legalized marijuana. It is the first country to do so. Led by President – an extraordinary leader – the Senate has voted to give the government the right to control the growing, selling and use of marijuana. The US-led War on Drugs is a dismal failure. In a previous , it was mentioned how Afghan opium production has reached a record high. The violence in Mexico is chronicled on a daily basis as gangs battle each other and the government to keep control of the narcotics trade. The fact of the matter is that there is a tremendous global demand for drugs. The effort to control supply despite the massive international investment in police, soldiers and prisons has failed. Many, including flamboyant entrepreneur Richard Branson, have been calling for an .

Two-thirds of Uruguayans oppose the law but Mujica is a man of conviction, who has pushed through legalization of abortion and same-sex marriage as well. An austere leader who does not use a motorcade, abjures the fancy presidential palace and donates most of his salary, President Mujica is running a government with and debt levels that have earned investment grade credit scores from the three top rating agencies. With refreshing candor, Mujica has admitted that the country may not be totally prepared and the law is an experiment to take users away from clandestine dealers. Whatever happens, this is the start of a new era and the world will be watching Uruguay very closely.

In neighboring Argentina, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, unlike Mujica, does not have a reputation for either probity or competence, and neither do most other politicians. Police in 14 of Argentina’s 23 provinces are on strike demanding better pay and improved working conditions. This has led to a wave of looting that has spread to . Federal forces have been dispatched but, so far, they have not been able to restore order. The current problem will add to as it struggles with surging inflation and pitiful international credibility.

Mexico’s energy reforms, discussed in the previous , have gone through. The 75-year old state monopoly on oil and gas will go. A sovereign-wealth fund will invest oil revenues for the long-term after covering any shortfall in the government budget. The energy reform is radical and could pave the way for a more buoyant Mexican economy. The devil will lie in the details. Secondary legislation and implementation will determine the fate of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s bold gamble, but he has certainly taken a bold step in the right direction.

In Colombia, Bogota’s mayor, Gustavo Petro, was dismissed by Inspector General Alejandro Ordóñez, an ultra-traditionalist Catholic whose position gives him the power to fire public officials if they break the law. Ordóñez also banned Petro from public office for 15 years. Tens of thousands of people have been and Ordóñez’s action has been condemned. Colombia needs reforms to curb authoritarian acts in the future.

The Ukrainian saga described in the previous rolls on. Over 200,000 people have rallied in Kiev to protest against President Viktor Yanukovych. They want him to sign a deal with the European Union (EU) from which he pulled out at the last minute. US Senator John McCain visited Kiev and walked among the crowds to encourage protesters. Yanukovych is meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. Putin has been perceived to be the driving force behind Yanukovych’s pulling out of the EU deal. Customs delays and a ban on Ukrainian chocolates put pressure on Kiev. Putin wants Ukraine to join a instead. The ongoing protests are the largest since Ukraine’s Orange Revolution of 2004 and reflect the divisions in the country as it remains torn between Russia and the EU.

Putin has , one of Russia’s leading news organizations, and Voice of Russia, an international radio station. Both RIA Novosti and Voice of Russia have a long history and decent reputations. Although they have Soviet roots, beginning in 1941 and 1929, respectively, they have reflected some diversity of opinion and recently covered the trial of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Putin has announced the launch of  (Russia Today), a news agency that will inform foreign audiences about Russian policy and public life. Dmitry Kiselev, a frightening Kremlin loyalist who on prime-time television, takes over as the boss of the new organization. He has declared his mission to be “the restoration of fair treatment of Russia.” Putin’s Russia is careering down an increasingly authoritarian path with jingoism, intolerance, and international muscle flexing as its defining features.

For the past month, rumors have been circulating regarding mass arrests and severe mistreatment of terror suspects in Russia’s federal republic of Tatarstan. From September, seven Orthodox churches have been set alight, and police had reported that an explosive device had been found near a religious site, resulting in brutal, indiscriminate arrests. Unlike neighboring Chechnya or in the , Tatarstan had always boasted a peaceful coexistence between its two main religions of Islam and Russian Orthodox, so this is a worrying development.

Three years ago, Ireland was on the brink of bankruptcy. A debt-fuelled property boom and an overextended banking sector ended the Celtic Tiger boom. The International Monetary Fund, the European Commission, and the European Central Bank lent the country €67.5 billion to enable it to ride out the crisis. Ireland stoically pushed through spending cuts, asset sales and reforms. It has now become the first eurozone economy to exit the rescue program and will no longer be seeking further funds from its lenders. The Irish achievement is impressive and EU leaders are crowing about it as an example for other stricken economies. Sadly, these countries lack Ireland’s political will and competitive advantages that include a highly educated workforce, light regulations, and a decently diversified economy. Ireland is doing well again and will do better. The eurozone still has a long way to go.

Mohammed Badie, the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, turned on his accusers when he appeared in court. He asked them as to why they were not investigating the killing of his son, the burning of his house and his group's offices. Since the Egyptian military overthrew Mohammed Morsi, the former president now on trial, it has increased its pressure on the Brotherhood.

Egypt is going through its bloodiest chapter in recent times. The military has killed hundreds of Badie’s supporters while 200 soldiers and policemen have lost their lives to Islamist ire, mainly in the Sinai. The military is set to close 62 private schools run by the Muslim Brotherhood. Protesters continue to be dispersed by riot police using tear gas and water canons. A second set of judges have already resigned from the trial of the Brotherhood leaders. The deep divisions in Egypt are raising the specter of a fully-fledged civil war that plagued Algeria in the 1990s.

After Islamists seized warehouses on the Syrian-Turkish border, the US suspended “non-lethal” military aid to the rebels. US-backed rebel forces have been ineffectual so far. More and more factions have been throwing in their lot with Islamist groups that receive more generous funding from the Gulf Arab states. The recently created Islamic Front is growing in power and US influence is eroding. Meanwhile, the Syrian army has retaken a road that connects Damascus to the coast. As per the current deal, Syria’s toxic chemicals will be transported via this road to the port city of Latakia, where they will be picked up for destruction. Russia has offered to provide transport for the chemicals.

While fighting continues, the UN is worried about refugees in both Syria and Lebanon. The harshest winter of a century is underway with storms and snow buffeting the area. Too many people lack adequate food, water and shelter. The first relief airlift to Syria from Iraq will deliver food and winter supplies to the mostly Kurdish northeast. More efforts will be needed in the coming weeks to avoid a humanitarian disaster. The UN has launched its biggest ever appeal and warned that three quarters of Syrians will need humanitarian aid in 2014.

US Secretary of State John Kerry is plowing his lonely furrow in pursuit of an elusive peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians. Israeli Economy Minister Naftali Bennett ridiculed the peace talks and proposed that Israel annex parts of the West Bank where most Jewish settlers live. He went on to say on public radio: “This is all a joke. It's as if we're discussing the purchase of a car with only half of its owners.” In another interview, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon added: “There is no partner on the Palestinian side to reach a two-state solution for two peoples.”

As of now the peace process seems doomed because of Israeli intransigence and the lack of a credible interlocutor representing the Palestinians. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas lacks credibility and only controls parts of the West Bank, while Gaza-based Hamas is deemed a terrorist organization by both Israel and the US. The good news is that Israel dropped its controversial plans to relocate Bedouins from the Negev. In an earlier weekly report, this author called the measure a .

In death as in life, Nelson Mandela dominates developments. His memorial service at Johannesburg’s Soccer City Stadium drew world leaders and thousands of his countrymen. The lashing rain could not dampen the spirit of those who attended. South African President Jacob Zuma got roundly booed. US President Barack Obama gave a rousing speech, calling Mandela a “giant of history” who “moved a nation towards justice.” Yet he was involved in two controversies.

The first was an innocuous one involving a selfie – the new fangled term for a self photograph using a digital camera or a smart phone. Obama was spotted having a cheery conversation with Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt and British Prime Minister David Cameron, before joining in to take a selfie with them. Commentators disapproved of his behavior and the lack of decorum displayed by world leaders.

The second was a moment when Obama shook hands with Raul Castro, an act which drew criticism from many on the right. These critics forgot that while the US under Ronald Reagan had backed apartheid, Cuba under Fidel Castro had opposed the illegitimate white regime.

Mandela's memorial had a chaotic feel to it and the sign language interpreter turned out to be a fraud. He was gesticulating meaninglessly and had been charged with multiple crimes, including murder, in the past. Even Mandela’s funeral at Qunu was not bereft of controversy. There were rumors that Archbishop Desmond Tutu, one of his closest friends and a stalwart of the anti-apartheid struggle, might not have been invited. Now that his funeral is over, Africa and the world will adjust to life without a giant.

The striking development from Africa that has flown under the radar of most news organizations is the in Yirimadjo, a community to the southeast of Mali’s capital Bamako. This drop has not been because of a new vaccine or pioneering development in healthcare. It comes from a new healthcare model that is deceptively simple. Instead of waiting for cases to be reported, healthcare professionals seek out prospective patients and treat them early. Over three years, the focus was on ensuring early access to care and prevention services. Education reform and removal of user fees for those who could not afford to pay has been a part of the effort. This new healthcare model is likely to be emulated elsewhere in Africa and other parts of the world.

In Nigeria, President Goodluck Jonathan has been strongly criticized by his predecessor, Olusegun Obasanjo. Earlier, a powerful faction of state governors joined the opposition. Obasanjo has accused Jonathan of failing to tackle Nigeria’s problems, including corruption, piracy, kidnapping and oil theft. Jonathan’s position has been weakening but this is the biggest blow that he has suffered so far. Obasanjo has declared that it would be “morally flawed” for Jonathan to seek reelection because that could hasten a slide back to military rule.

Kenya celebrates 50 years of independence with much soul searching not only about the progress made so far, but also the prospects of its president’s trial by the International Criminal Court. Meanwhile, the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, became the venue where the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo and M23 rebels signed a peace agreement, raising hopes of the end to one of Africa’s protracted conflicts.

In Afghanistan, the drama over the Bilateral Security Arrangement (BSA) continues. As discussed in previous , Afghan President Hamid Karzai is continuing to raise the ante. He has been venting his frustration with continuing civilian casualties and home raids. The US has started planning the “zero option,” a post-2014 future with no US or NATO troops in the country.

Karzai has been planning for that too. He visited New Delhi to meet Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to discuss regional security and military cooperation. India promised two military transport helicopters, a scant consolation for the beleaguered Karzai whose wish list included 150 battle tanks, field guns, howitzers, and one squadron of attack helicopters. The Indian government is weak and facing electoral defeat. Foreign policy has never been high on its agenda and the military is shut out from the decision making apparatus. Karzai is only going to meet with heartbreak in his Indian romance.

Meanwhile, it turns out that the US military on providing refurbished aircrafts to the Afghan Air Force. These planes, however, did not work in Afghanistan’s environment, leading the military to abandon the contract. The planes are now gathering dust and are likely to be destroyed. In many ways, the planes are a metaphor for the US war effort, which was riddled with inefficiency and waste. Few Americans in diplomacy, military or intelligence understood the complexity of operating in Afghanistan, and often acted at cross purposes. American efforts were often ineffective and wasted precious taxpayer money, whilst alienating local Afghans as well.

In India, the Supreme Court upheld the 1860 Indian Penal Code that criminalizes gay sex. A lower court had legalized gay sex in 2009, but now India’s highest court held that the Victorians who drafted India’s law had been clear in their definition of “unnatural sexual acts.” The court held that it was for parliament to legislate on this matter as it was beyond the purview of the courts. Hundreds rallied in several cities to protest the decision while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), India’s main opposition party, welcomed the ruling. India’s religious groups, particularly Muslim and Christian, have also welcomed the decision.

Bangladesh won its independence from Pakistan in 1971, but it is still battling pre-independence ghosts. The battle between those who collaborated with Pakistan and those that fought for freedom still rages on. This week, Abdul Quader Mollah, a senior leader of the Jamaat-e-Islami party, was executed for war crimes committed in 1971. Mollah was found guilty of killing some of Bangladesh’s top professors, doctors, writer and journalists. Riots broke out after the execution. Many believe that Mollah’s trial was politically motivated and the domestic tribunal that found him guilty was much criticized. Turmoil in Bangladesh will continue.

In Pakistan, charges of high treason have been filed against former military ruler Pervez Musharraf. If convicted, he could be sentenced to death or life imprisonment. Pakistan’s turmoil is also set to continue.

In North Korea, leader Kim Jong-un's once influential uncle, Chang Song-thaek, has now been executed. The termed his arrest dramatic, but his execution is simply extraordinary. Few really know what is going on in the hermit kingdom. The execution of a close family member is a first, even in North Korea. He has been accused of sins ranging from womanizing to selling natural products too cheaply.

North Korea is racked by poverty and hunger. It is controlled by a paranoiac leadership that indoctrinates its people from an early age. The execution and subsequent publicity are going to jar North Korean sensibilities. They raise questions about the stability of the country and the rationality of its regime. The deceased uncle was apparently close to China. Now, even North Korea’s godfather does not know what the errant son might be up to.

In an earlier , the author decried the passing of a draconian bill by Japan’s lower house of the Diet. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government has rammed this bill through the upper house and it is now law. This law would put large parts of the government beyond the purview of scrutiny and allow for the imprisonment of those who reveal information arbitrarily classified as a “state secret.” Although Abe’s popularity has fallen, Japan’s democracy has taken a giant leap backwards. Using China’s provocations as an excuse, Abe has made Japan into a paternalistic authoritarian state where the politician and bureaucrat can hide behind the new law to avoid accountability. Japan has never been a terribly transparent country, but this law is the most regressive in the history of post-war Japan.

Following China, it was South Korea’s turn to announce an air defense zone. As the author has , the current game of tit for tat is reminiscent of pre-World War I Europe. The air zones declared by China, South Korea and Japan all overlap. All these countries are flying jets to outdo each other. Japan has already turned repressive and might throw out its peacetime constitution. The other two countries are also seeing an upsurge in nationalism. If leaders of the three countries do not act with forbearance and wisdom, their nations will suffer immeasurably.

“Jade Rabbit,” China’s first lunar rover has landed on the moon’s surface. The rover will survey the moon's geological structure and surface and look for natural resources for three months. The landing craft will carry out experiments and make observations for a year. Although China lags behind the US and Russia, it is making impressive progress and its lunar soft landing represents a tremendous advance in its space program.

Finally, peaceful Singapore is yet another country with problems regarding immigrant construction workers. After an incident in which a drunken worker was accidentally run over by a bus, 400 workers rioted. Like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Singapore does not treat its migrant workers well. The influx of foreign workers is already a hot political issue and will become more so after this incident.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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In 2005, the government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in Spain approved gay marriage. The big question was whether the approval was going to be the small landslide that would cause the avalanche in Latin America, the stronghold of the Catholic Church. December 2009 saw Mexico City become the first city in Latin America to approve gay marriage; although, this approval does not apply for all states in the country. The leading step taken by Mexico City motivated gay activists across the continent in the quest for their right to marry.

Argentina, in July 2010, became the first country in Latin America to recognize gay marriage. Other countries at the time, including Brazil, Uruguay and Colombia, had presented law proposals to their senates. In April 2013, Uruguay approved a law recognizing gay marriage with a vast majority of 71 out of the 92 members of parliament approving the measure. Four federal states of Brazil have also recognized the right to gay marriage.

This year started with the approval of gay marriage in France, New Zealand and Uruguay. Colombia was in line to approve gay marriage, and for the last week of April 2013, the political and religious struggle shook the country to its core.

The Gay Population in Colombia

According to several NGO estimates, nearly 8% of Colombia's population is gay, despite a strong Christian majority in the country.

Homosexuality was recognized as a crime in Colombia until 1936. Since then, the country has taken significant strides toward the recognition of gay rights. These steps include recognition since 2007 by the Constitutional Court, the right to inherit assets, and the right to receive life insurance and retirement money. 

In Colombia, gay couples can currently register their union. Although, they cannot adopt as a couple, nor can their union be considered a formal marriage. Gay Colombians cannot be discriminated against, cannot be fired from their job for their sexuality, and have the right to keep the custody of their children, among other recognized rights of the civil code.

Arguments in Favor

With the support of the Constitutional Court, the gay marriage movement has appealed to the constitutional principles of pluralism (Article 1), diversity (Article 7), and the measures to promote equality (Article 13). The court has been positively affirmed in their recognition of gay families in society, and has valued that nucleus on the same level as heterosexual families.

According to many experts, not recognizing gay marriage goes against human rights, which universally recognizes the right to have a family, regardless of the family’s sexual orientation.

Denying civil rights to a specific part of the population resembles the struggle against anti-Semitism and the call for equal rights by the African American population. A campaign against a new version of “apartheid” has been started among gay activists to counter the declarations of the Colombian Catholic Church and Senator Gerlein, who referred to gay sex as excremental. Both the church and Senator Gerlein started a campaign to keep the concept of family as heterosexual-only and the values it represents. This argument was also the basis against divorce, which was approved in Colombia and ratified in the 1991 constitution, even if the church proscribed it as adultery.

However, over 20 years later, the concept of family in Colombia has kept its values, and there has been no social chaos or collapse of the traditions of Colombian society.

Is the Struggle Over?

After 51 votes against 17 in favor, the project was temporally dismissed. However, the Constitutional Court established in the C57 sentence of 2011, that if by July 20, 2013, there was no legal recognition by Congress, gay couples would be able to register their union through a contract in any judge’s office. 

Being able to sign a contract starting July 20, does not mean the “union statement” is recognized as equal to the heterosexual marriage. For several gay activists, having a separate contract for their union is just as discriminating. This measure is a huge step back in a country that was a leader in promoting equality for their gay population. This legal defeat just means that a process that has taken years to progress will have to be restarted and could last many more years.

Gay activists have sounded a call to flood all legal offices with marriage requests starting July 20. The political defeat must not make us forget that the legal trend is still open, thanks to the Constitutional Court.

Despite this setback, the call for gay rights is still on its way and the struggle continues in other countries like Peru and Venezuela. Hopefully, the avalanche will soon make its effect in Colombia and its medieval segregationist mentality.

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The Emerging Society of Victims

“Draw the scaffolding so that the last step of the ladder comes in clearly. The criminal must be just stepping onto it, his face as white as note-paper. The priest is holding a cross to his blue lips, and the criminal kisses it, and knows and sees and understands everything. The cross and the head — there’s your picture; the priest and the executioner, with his two assistants, and a few heads and eyes below. Those might come in as subordinate accessories, a sort of mist. There`s a picture for you.”

—Fydor Dostoevsky, The Idiot

To the chagrin of the demigods of humanitarian law, Dostoevsky is always showing us that the act of justice makes the world more obscure, rather than (in that all-encompassing term so popular in civil society) making justice more “transparent.” Indeed, for Dostoevsky, reconciliation can prove far more dangerous than revenge. In this scene from The Idiot, that danger is captured by the criminals not only kissing the cross (as is mentioned in the passage above), but by kissing (as is said elsewhere) “greedily,” as though his aim was to devour the cross. Reconciliation is profanation when a corrupt criminal, still hungry for power up until his last breath, manages it. And precisely this danger of “eating” corruption under the pretext of reconciliation is the danger now facing Mexico.

A new law, directed particularly towards victims of the “Calderon War” on drugs that by some estimates has cost 130,000 lives since 2006, is a law that also promises to cover all violations of human rights in Mexico and is on the brink of coming into effect. El Ley General de las Victimas, or the General Law of Victims, was passed late last month by the legislature and signed by President Peña Nieto into law, after a similar law had been vetoed by Calderon in 2011. The law promises new tribunals controlled by human rights and civil society activists that would decide monetary retribution for victims (both ones whose cases are related to the drug war and not), as well as offering psychological services, educational services, and guarantees for the investigation of crimes. The new law even purports to deal with the cases of “potential victims” whose lives are under threat.

In short, Mexico may be on the verge of becoming a society of self-described victims. In Columbia, a more limited victims’ law (on which Mexico’s is partly based) has been wrapped up by some in slogans unabashedly and eagerly promising a society of victims: “One needs to view the victims as the builders of peace and as the builders of society,” declares Camillo Sanchez of Columbia’s Centro de Estudios de Justicia (Center for Legal Studies). Mexico seems to be heeding similar calls from its own activists and legal culture. But what of that worrying scene of Dostoevsky, in which reconciliation threatens, below all the grand rhetoric, to give more power and knowledge still to the criminals?

In the context of Argentina’s struggles with victims’ laws seeking to give overdue justice to victims of that nation’s “dirty war” against its citizens in the 1980s, the threat of aiding corruption has been far more sharply pointed out than is the case in Mexico today. The prominent Argentine victims’ organization, Madres de Plaza de Mayo, has famously refused to “eat corruption.” “Would you be able to bring a morsel to your mouth,” one member of the organization asks, “knowing that you bought it with the money they gave you because they killed your child?…The life of our children has no price.” In the end, the Madres famously rejected financial reconciliation offered by the Argentine government.

In Mexico, on the contrary, it has been victims’ organizations themselves — in particular the Movimiento por la Paz con Justicia y Dignidad (Movement for Peace with Justice and Dignity) — which have spearheaded the law and been generally lauded in domestic and international press for their efforts.

The Society Behind the Civil

The cheers still echoing through civil society circles in Mexico would die down if a very strange fact were confronted. Namely, it is clear that in Mexico, the very complicity of families and local police (as well as some federal politicians) with the cartels is the social condition on which the possibility of this victims’ law rests. The notion that “local justice” (murders and disappearances that spurred the law are often crimes committed among formerly complicit or mutually-known parties) can be achieved by federal and state compensation is more than deceptive, it is calculated. If the society for which civil society tries to speak were truly in simple opposition to the cartels, the call would be for an end to impunity, not for a listing and reimbursement of victims; the legislation would be for citizen-monitoring and participation in investigations, rather than in further rounds of empty guarantees for justice (guarantees now to be sweetened with monetary pay-offs). Instead, citizen paramilitary groups in Oaxaca and Michoacán purporting to protect neighborhoods against criminals and protesters against police have been unsurprisingly condemned by the federal government as illegal nuances.

Calderon’s failed war on drugs was something approaching simple opposition to the cartels. That opposition produced the unmeasured violence that the present victims’ law must try to make sense out of — to make compensation in pesos and centavos (cents) as well. The victims’ law thus builds up a new zone of complicity, in which the power of the cartels is affirmed by the government taking responsibility for crimes attributable to anyone and no one (the cartels, the army, governmental policy, US drug law enforcement, families, and society).

Here, is a threatened repetition in Mexico of the very politics that the Madres de Plaza de Mayo has fought against in Argentina. In Argentina, government payoffs of victims arrived along with pardons of politicians already indicted for war crimes, and the emergence of new laws granting political immunity to soldiers who had been involved in crimes against Argentine citizens. The Madres declared: “We don’t judge our detained-disappeared children, nor do we ask for their freedom. We want to be told where they are, what they are accused of, and ask that they be judged according to legal norms with the legitimate right of defense if they have committed any crimes.”

This is another kind of stark opposition to corruption, distinct from the violent opposition of Calderon’s government; yet in Mexico, Calderon’s failure may have cast too large a shadow for civil society to face this difference. There are few similar calls, for instance, coming from leaders of the current Mexican victims’ movements. And even when Mexican critics speak out, the pressure to comply is evident in their muffled rhetoric.

In a New York Times article not directly concerned with the victims’ law, but concerning the related controversial construction of a victims memorial in Mexico City, we find a brief quote from Viridiana Rios, a Mexican researcher at Harvard University and former adviser to the Mexican Interior Ministry “We are fighting a war against an enemy we don’t know,” says Rios, and “we need to answer to the public. There are claims many of the victims are innocent. I would like to know if that is the case.” This is a coy manner of saying, of course, that it is the case — that many victims are not innocent. The delicacy, bordering on euphemism, with which Rios forwards his criticism suggests how dangerous the national situation has become with the new law.

While Calderon’s rhetoric ushered in a tide of bloodshed, the dawning political “society of victims” in Mexico is making language itself the first victim, plunging the crimes into an emerging bureaucracy. The government is scheduled to heavily pay (up to one million pesos per victim, one version of the law promises) for the right to manage public pressure concerning revelations of how deep the cartels and other sectors of Mexican society, such as local families and local police, are imbricated. As the Madres saw quite clearly in their own case, this amounts to bribery. In the Mexican case, it may more precisely become a legally mandated system of reciprocal blackmailing in which criminal investigations do not improve on the oft-cited track record of Mexican justice that�� currently sentences culprits in 4 percent of reported murders.

The absurdity of it all hit a high note in a rare critical article in the prominent political magazine El Proceso. The article quotes at length lawyer, Julio Hernández Barros, who was involved in the drafting of the new victims’ law. While a proponent of the law, Barros poses a question for himself that he is more than ill prepared to answer. Playing “devil’s advocate,” as the article puts it, Barros asks if “relatives of El Chapo (the notorious cartel leader) might seek compensation if he is killed by the army?” Barros affirms the possibility, offering a “victim of society” defense: “Many times they are victims of the society in which they happened to be born or live. I could not blame El Ponchis (for instance), who is fourteen, because the first culprit is your family, then your community, and thirdly the State.” The strangeness of this explanation should be obvious.

If Mexicans really thought like Barros, wouldn’t we be seeing families reimbursing the state for their children’s crimes, rather than the reverse? Barros’ logic, and the general structure of blackmail on which the new victims’ law is erected, relies on a common fantasy: It is the fantasy of families, friends, and spouses who “didn’t know” about the illicit actions of their loved ones, even among the gossip of the neighbors about new clothes, or new cars, or new friends and habits. We are not so far, then, from the psychological conundrum made famous by Hitler’s Third Reich, in which the question arises: “how much did you know?” If Mexico becomes a society of victims, in which communities acknowledge crimes only after funerals, or after trials without defendants, the criminals gain.

Dostoevsky’s narrator paints, in his verbal portrait of the criminal facing execution and justice, the aura of the criminal’s power: “[He]knows and sees and understands everything.” He tastes reconciliation in the kissing of the cross with the mouth of a trapped animal, yet feels in the vengeance of the state that looms over him (the guillotine, in this case) the bubbling of his own sovereign rule, the complicity in evil of a society that the criminal is said to fancy an�� “accessory,” like a crown.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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Julián Chappa: You have three relatives in Buenos Aires who share the surname Freud. Could you please tell us a litlle bit more about them?

Joseph Knobel Freud:I have many more relatives who have the surname Freud in Buenos Aires. Those three are the ones who are directly related to me. In fact, my mother Clara Freud had a sister who had two children that currently live in Buenos Aires. It is fair to say that I don’t have a very strong relationship with them, but they are my cousins nonetheless. My mom also has a brother — a famous architect, whose son is called Hernán Freud. And also my cousin, the father of two children, a boy and a girl, meaning that we now have a young Anna Freud (she is less than a year old) living in Buenos Aires. I have a couple more relatives from my grandfather’s side. Two of his brothers escaped the Nazis and arrived in Buenos Aires alive. I have two female cousins: Raquel Freud, an engineer and Endy Dain, whose mother spent some time with [Sigmund] Freud when she was little, and now has a very prominent cultural space in the Palermo area.

Chappa: You are also related to Lucien Freud, the famous painter. Do you know him personally?

Freud: I wanted to meet Lucien about two years ago and requested a meeting in London, but he wasn’t very charming during our encounter. I think he suspected that I was after something. It wasn’t a very pleasant experience.

Chappa: How and when was your profession born? To what extent, do you think, it influenced by your ancestry?

Freud: I don’t think that my surname has had any impact on my profession — at least not my maternal surname. My father was a famous child and teenage psychoanalyst in Buenos Aires. And I think that his group of friends, their activity and their incessant passionhad the biggest impact on me.I spent most of my childhood among some of Argentina’s finest psychonalysts: the Garma family, Arminda Aberastury, and the Arbiser family.�� And so I began to read about psychoanalysis from a very young age.

Chappa: Curiously, you are Freud’s only relative to follow in his footsteps of psychonalasis. Did your surname hinder you or open doors for you?

Freud: I am not the only one! Sigmund’s grandson, Ernest Freud, was an excellent psychonalayst in Berlin. Another one of my cousins, Sophie, worked in the same field in Boston and my mother worked in Brazil since her exile in 1976. I have never used the Freud name to get ahead in my profession.

Chappa: Tell us about your experience working with charities and other professionals and patients from different countries. You must have experienced some extraordinary things. Could you describe a specific situation that may have had an impact on you?

Freud: I have collaborated with various charities whose sole mission was to help emigrants and immigrants. I have many anecdotes but unfortunately, I don’t feel that I can share them with anyone because that would entail me breaking a confidentiality agreement.

Chappa: We know that you have moved around a lot. Which cities have you lived in?

Freud: I have lived in Paris, New York, Rio de Janeiro, Rome, Barcelona and Buenos Aires. But I don’t feel more North American than Argentinian or Spanish (or Catalan).

Chappa: Having lived in all those cities, which country do you identify with the most?

Freud: To be honest, I have lived in so many different places that, without meaning to sound cliched, I feel like I am from everyone and nowhere at the same time. I could easily say that I am from the middle of the ocean or that I am very international.

Chappa: You speak a lot of different languages. Which language do you think in?

Freud:I work in various languages. Some of my patients speak to me in English, French, Spanish or Catalan. Sometimes I dream and think in English, French or Portuguese. It really does depend on what I’m doing in that particular moment. If I am reading a Portuguese article, then I will probably continue to think in Portuguese for a short while after. I would eventually “change my chip” and begin to think in Spanish — generally I think in Spanish. If I spend some time with a Catalan patient, then I will continue to think in Catalan for a while. I actually tend to have five or six books on one go and they are often all in different languages. I don’t struggle with changing to one language to the other, but I tend to think in Spanish the most. My first childhood — closely related to dreaming — was in English, but my father insisted on speaking to me in Spanish when I was a child to ensure that I would pick up the language quickly.

*This interview was translated from Spanish to English by .

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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Iran’s alleged role in the 1994 attack on the Jewish-Argentina Mutual Association (AMIA) community center in Buenos Aires was followed by eighteen years of tense relations between Argentina and Iran. Earlier this year, however, Argentine and Iranian officials agreed to establish a “truth commission” pertaining to the terrorist attack that killed 85 people, which indicates that Argentine-Iranian relations have entered a new chapter. The agreement has been hailed by officials in both capitals as a “historic” opportunity to seek the truth about the AMIA bombing. Nevertheless, a grander strategic scheme, unrelated to the 1994 attack, drives the rapprochement.

Argentina’s new tone toward Iran is best understood within the context of President Kirchner’s confrontational actions on the international stage. By nationalizing the energy company YPF – a subsidiary of Spain’s Repsol – resurrecting the longstanding dispute over the Falkland Islands, while going toe-to-toe with the IMF over the sovereign debt dispute, Kirchner has in fact conducted an antagonistic foreign policy toward Western powers. The decision to establish the “truth commission” with Iranian officials added the US and Israel to the list of governments increasingly irritated with an Argentina that seeks to redefine North-South relations in the 21^st century, while challenging conventional taboos.

Without question, while irking Western powers and international financial institutions, Argentina is pursuing deeper regional integration and greater autonomy from the US.

The establishment of BancoSur – a monetary and lending institution established in 2009 for the purpose of providing South American countries an alternative to the World Bank and IMF – increased trade within the South American continent and voting patterns, particularly with respect to Cuba, at the Organization of American States underscore such efforts.

As an ally of the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Kirchner’s position vis-à-vis Iran must be analyzed in the framework of a new regional order that has veered increasingly under Caracas’ influence. As Venezuela established deeper ties with Iran, Chavez’s regional allies followed suit to various extents. Clearly, as leaders in Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador and Nicaragua have reached out to the Islamic Republic, they have defied the West’s wishes. The authors concur with analysts, such as Sergio Berenzstein, who that Argentina’s warmth toward Iran factors into Kirchner’s agenda of supporting this Venezuelan-led bloc that seeks to create a more multipolar world.

Beyond a regional realignment in Latin America, Kirchner views Iran as an opportunity to advance specific Argentine national interests. During recent years, Argentina has become increasingly reliant on energy imports. Therefore, greater ties with the world’s fifth largest producer of crude oil and sixth largest producer of natural gas could yield enormous benefits. Meanwhile, Iran is desperate to find more export partners as the noose tightens around its central bank. More likely than not, Tehran would reward Buenos Aires with generous energy deals if Argentina continues to resist Western pressure to honor the sanctions.

Since Kirchner became president in 2007, Argentine exports to Iran (primarily agricultural commodities) have 338%, reaching $1.08 billion in 2012.Overall bilateral trade has increased 200% within the last five years. As the international economic sanctions have led many Iranians to live with a shortage of goods, Argentine officials understand that Iran’s demand for Argentina’s soya beans, corn and wheat should remain steady for the near- to medium-term.

Nonetheless, this development in Argentine-Iranian relations has met its share of criticism and controversy – most notably from Washington, Tel Aviv and certain segments of Argentine society.

In response to a question about the “truth commission,” US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland : “Iran’s record of cooperation with international authorities is profoundly deficient, which underlines the concern that its engagement on this matter be focused on achieving justice promptly.” Israel’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement “astonishment and disappointment” with Argentina and condemning Buenos Aires for holding an “unacceptable attitude” toward Israel. Sergio Widder, director for the Simon Wiesenthal Center in Latin America , “How will it be possible to close the case by collaborating with those who have denied any part in the bombing […] Furthermore, how can Argentina trust a totalitarian regime with absolutely no respect for human rights?” These voices, according to Kirchner and her allies, have no interest in obtaining any truth about the event of 1994. Kirchner’s supporters dismiss these critics as agents of foreign interests that seek to utilize the 1994 attack as a geopolitical football to further isolate Iran.

Of course, predicting the longer-term consequences of Kirchner’s policies vis-à-vis Iran is difficult. Moreover, as demonstrated by the 8N movement, Kirchner already faces a plethora of domestic concerns. This movement was formed last year by upper-middle class and wealthy Argentines who grew angry with Kirchner, accusing her administration of only catering to the needs of her political support base. The rise of inflation, skyrocketing crime rates, a damaged foreign investment climate and greater government control over the media are contentious issues that have created much political turmoil in Argentina and added momentum to the 8N movement. Thus, the thawing of Argentine-Iranian relations may not capture the average Argentine’s attention. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the “truth commission” will yield results and if it fails to achieve its objective, there is reason to question how close Argentina and Iran can grow.

Nonetheless, by merely collaborating with Iranian authorities, Buenos Aires is making a bold statement. In 2009, former US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton that if Latin American states “want to flirt with Iran, they should take a look at what the consequences might well be for them.” Clearly, Washington will apply pressure on any state in the western hemisphere that refuses to tow the West’s line vis-à-vis Iran. Argentina knows this. But does it care? Considering that China has surpassed the US as an export partner for Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru, the decline of US economic influence is unquestionably giving Latin American leaders, such as Kirchner, more freedom to thumb their nose at Washington when it suits their interest to do so. Clearly, Kirchner is convinced that forming a partnership with Iran will advance Argentina’s interests and she appears unafraid of the associated risks.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy

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