51吃瓜

On November 19, 2023, the Argentinean people elected their next president in a runoff election. Right-wing libertarian Javier Milei with 56% of the vote against Economy Minister Sergio Massa鈥檚 44%. Milei鈥檚 victory reveals a lot about shifting allegiances in Argentina鈥檚 political climate.

Compared to the last 15 years, two novelties stood out in this election: The demand for a political and economic change is large, and the traditional division between 鈥� a left-wing populist movement 鈥� and anti-Kirchnerism seems to have faded.

Since 2003, President N茅stor Kirchner (2003鈥�2007) and his wife and successor, President Cristina Fern谩ndez de Kirchner (2007鈥�2015) have promoted a 鈥渘eo-developmentalist鈥� economic model, in which the state plays an active, paternalistic role in fostering economic growth. Both of them represented the Peronist movement, which has been the dominant political force in Argentina since the 1980s. In the last four presidential elections, the most successful political formulas were those that proposed to maintain, deepen or return to the roots of the neo-developmentalism.

Both of the candidates that made it to the runoff, however, proposed more market-oriented economic models. Massa, who is also a Peronist, a development project centered on production and the coordination of labor, capital and the state. In contrast to this moderate proposal, the libertarian Milei promotes a drastic reduction of the state and the implementation of a market economy in all spaces of social life. He wants to privatize broad swathes of Argentinean life, from health to education, and even calls for liberalizing trade in .

The last four presidential elections were organized around the cleavage between Kirchnerism and anti-Kirchnerism, i.e. between left-wing populists and their opponents. Today such opposition is attenuated. Massa called for national unity.

Milei, instead, created his own original rift, one between the 鈥渃aste鈥� of elites and those excluded by them. Milei took the concept of caste from the Spanish leftist movement Podemos and redefined from a libertarian perspective. It refers to a vague group that includes corrupt politicians, rent-seeking businessmen, trade unionists who betray the workers they represent, journalists and professionals (especially economists, lawyers and pollsters) who act as accomplices of the politicians and 鈥済ive an intellectual patina to the theft of the State.鈥� On the other side are the 鈥済ood people.鈥� In Milei鈥檚 worldview, these are individuals who compete in the market by offering quality goods and services at a better price, without resorting to traps or shortcuts.

A tired society wants Milei鈥檚 markets

Argentineans were divided between two proposals. The first was Massa鈥檚 plan to move towards a government of national unity. It appealed to the best men and women of all political spaces that respect democracy, laying the foundations for an inclusive and stable development model that revolved around production and employment.

The second proposal was Milei鈥檚 reset, unraveling the Argentinean welfare state. It was a dramatic reaction from the people鈥檚 annoyance with repeatedly unfulfilled promises of economic prosperity. Milei鈥檚 plan is to replace it, by consensus or force, with a dogmatic market society that turns every type of social relationship into a market transaction. American economist Gary Becker would be proud.

Milei personifies the people鈥檚 tiredness with a system that shows a serious imbalance between proclaimed and effectively guaranteed rights. He became the political leader that a part of society had been wanting for a while. A society unenthused by traditional electoral options, socially fragmented and angry with the political-economic system found its leader.

Part of Milei鈥檚 success is explained by his ability to synthesize that diversity of feelings in his own speech and person. His approach exalts individual freedoms and capabilities while denying collective solutions, mainly the state. It is an entrepreneurial ideology that looks for infinite markets between individuals, algorithms and digital technologies that make transactions efficient. It places no restrictions above and below to moderate wealth concentration or support the less fortunate. The sky’s the limit 鈥� or perhaps Hell is.

Solid support, shaky statements

Milei wields a (and ) chainsaw. With it, he intends to viciously public spending, suppress the Central Bank and end the impoverishing political caste and its promise of dollarization. This goal has generated sympathies among informal workers and liberal sectors that identify inflation as a result of the fiscal deficit and irresponsible monetary issuance.

However, Milei鈥檚 other remarks have put many sectors of Argentinean society on alert. He has firmly avoided highlighting the value of democracy. Milei seemingly has an experimental laboratory vision of society. He has made worrying statements about the free sale of human organs and children. He has to Pope Francis, the first Argentinean to hold the office, as a 鈥渟on of a bitch preaching communism鈥� and 鈥渢he representative of the evil one on Earth.鈥� His approach to foreign policy is anachronistic and includes cutting diplomatic relations with Brazil and China 鈥� Argentina鈥檚 two main trading partners 鈥� for having communist leaders. These ideas are frightening, to say the least.

Despite the economy鈥檚 poor performance, it was not clear that Milei was destined to win. In the first round of voting, Massa him by more than 6 percentage points, thanks to greater citizen participation. To improve his chances for the runoff, Milei handed over the management of his campaign to Mauricio Macri of the center-right Juntos por el Cambio coalition. Macri was president from 2015 to 2019, but could not plausibly run again due to the terrible memory he left among workers and entrepreneurs.

After the first round of voting, Juntos por el Cambio鈥檚 candidate, Patricia Bullrich, was eliminated. With his own coalition therefore out of the electoral race, Macri departed from his coalition and outlined a more radical pro-market ideological line. Evidently, his choice bore fruit.

Argentinean sociologist Christian Ferrer that Argentina 鈥渋s a sentimentally anti-capitalist but pragmatically hyper-consumerist country.鈥� The latter trait has triumphed in this election. Society has chosen to pursue Milei鈥檚 uncertain market utopia, which he guarantees will demand sacrifice. The question remains: Will this sacrifice ultimately be worthwhile?

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The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.