51吃瓜

What could the rest of the world do if Donald Trump pulls the US out of the Paris Agreement on climate聽change?

Climate change negotiators from around the world鈥攚ho recently met at the 22^nd session of the Conference of the Parties聽(COP22)聽in聽鈥攁re tasked with putting meaning and action into the聽聽to bring down global greenhouse gas emissions.

Yet the tone in Marrakech suddenly became聽 as COP22 kicked off. While many conversations remained聽, others assumed a聽, as national delegates and civil society representatives tried to聽聽of the US presidential election.

Elections can have consequences for聽聽and the future of the planet.

US President-Elect Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he does not believe in human-induced climate change. He has argued that climate change is an expensive hoax that was created by the Chinese to make US manufacturing noncompetitive. He has also declared his intent to聽. Most importantly, he has loudly declared an intention to 鈥溾�� (He has since stated in an interview with The New York Times that he has an 鈥溾�� about the accord.)

Some cling to the hope that聽President Trump will forget made by Candidate Trump聽just as聽Candidate Trump had the pontifications of Citizen Trump. An important indicator of why聽聽is the appointment of聽聽as head of the transition team for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Ebell, also a frontrunner to be appointed as head of the EPA, is an outspoken climate change denier who flat out rejects the Paris Agreement as聽.

Notwithstanding the mechanics of officially聽鈥攚hich stipulate a four-year process鈥攈ow should the rest of the world respond if the Trump administration were to formally or informally聽?

These authors think there are at least four ways in which things can unfold.

Scenario 1: Walk Out With the US

If the Trump administration decides to聽,聽then other major economies that are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will have justification to do the same. This is de facto what happened with the聽聽once it became clear that the US would not ratify and was not serious about its implementation.

Not least because the聽聽came together as a result of much聽, other countries would feel a legitimate sense of anger and disappointment toward the United States if it were to walk away from the agreement.

Whether the walkout is a formal withdrawal from the agreement or an informal abdication from its responsibilities, the Paris Agreement would be聽聽as signatories fail to meet pledges to reduce country emissions made in Paris. The implication of such a scenario is that the UNFCCC negotiation process could just wither away, and critical agreed-upon temperature goals would slip聽.

Scenario 2: Kick the US Out

As the聽, although not by the margins it once was, and the聽, the US remains central to the enterprise of curtailing global climate change, but arguably is no longer as indispensable as it once was.

Such a rationale and the聽聽that would be triggered by a US walk-out of the Paris Agreement, particularly amongst the European Union (EU) and China, could induce the parties that remain serious about the agreement to adopt a retaliatory posture. While it would be unprecedented, countries could decide that a US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement should have real consequences for US involvement and participation in the United Nations (UN) climate change process.

If they were to do so, they would be taking a cue straight out of Trump鈥檚 book,聽, and its key dictums of 鈥渇ighting back very hard鈥� and 鈥渦sing every leverage.鈥� As Trump puts it in his book: 鈥淭he worst thing you can possibly do [is to] seem desperate 鈥� That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you鈥檙e dead.鈥�

There has already been聽聽that a US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement should be met with not just forcing the US out of all global climate arrangements, but imposing 鈥渆conomic sanctions in the face of this [Trump鈥檚] treaty-shredding lawlessness.鈥�

Scenario 3: Wait it Out

Even if a Trump administration is compelled to take early and visible action on the Paris Agreement to appease its political base,聽鈥攅ither because聽the reality of trump the necessity of politicking, or because the next election in four years could unseat the Trump administration.

Reasoning along such lines could compel the other countries to simply wait out any tantrums of the Trump administration. Essentially, this would mean ignoring US theatrics in the hope that time will bring either sanity or a different president to the White House who would steer the US back into support of the Paris provisions.

Other major powers,聽, may also view this as an opportunity to assume international political and environmental leadership without fully igniting the wrath of a Trump White House by actively pushing the US aside. Then the result could be a de facto聽聽as an essential player in global climate change politics, at least for a while.

Scenario 4: Engage the US

聽as Donald Trump may seem to many countries on many levels, it is not easy鈥攎aybe not even possible鈥攖o ignore or sideline the world鈥檚 largest economy and still the only real superpower on the planet. On all sorts of international issues, the world will have to聽. This could also be the case for climate change.

During the George W. Bush administration, other major actors聽聽even after its unequivocal聽. Back then, other countries believed that the importance of the US as both a leading political and economic power and greenhouse gas emitter was so great it was better to keep it inside the UNFCCC process.

Such engagement with the Trump administration can take place both through聽, mainly with China and the EU. The question would be whether President Trump would be willing to remain engaged, and on what terms.

What Should the World Do?

Perhaps it is wise for聽聽for now. It would聽, however, for the world to not start preparing for different scenarios. The next COP does not meet until聽. By then it may well be too late to think about options, probably from a聽聽and certainly from the perspective of the聽.

*[An earlier version of this article was originally published by .]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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