51吃瓜

A good COP21 will mean that聽the Sustainable Development Goals are taken more seriously.

On November 30, the聽21^st Conference of Parties (COP21) started in Paris. After almost 20 years of climate talks, it is hoped that the international community will finally agree聽concerted action to tackle climate change. Though a tiny minority聽still debate the science, it is generally agreed that the world needs to reduce emissions so that warming of the climate due to human聽activity聽聽Celsius鈥攔emembering that a number of already-vulnerable countries are聽听颁别濒蝉颈耻蝉.

If we have a good COP, all countries will聽agree to reduce their carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions over the next 10-20 years. Each will聽identify a year in which their emissions peak, then steadily decline. It is probable that this would happen in a staggered way鈥攕ome countries would peak in 2020, others 2025. By 2030, every country in the world should have peaked and be on the way downward. The consequences of this vary greatly between countries. For example, if you鈥檙e a country that likes to use large amounts of cheap petrol or cheap energy, this will mean increasing energy prices and investing more in energy efficiency.

If COP21 goes well, major countries will agree to peaking early and commit to a rapid decline. The emerging powers will come onboard, with China and India demonstrating their commitment by pledging to peak their emissions in 2030. You鈥檒l also see聽the rich world saying that it will not retain聽patents or licensing agreements on green technologies鈥攅nabling them to聽spread rapidly across the world.

A good COP will also mean that聽the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) are taken . If we don鈥檛 get an agreement at COP21, it will effectively tell countries: You鈥檙e not part of an聽effective global governance system, which is going to make life better for everybody. We鈥檇 be聽the same old world in which most countries are pursuing their narrow self-interest, so you can suit yourselves. The SDGs have a far greater focus on the environment and sustainability than the Millennium Development Goals, and so this is a step toward securing a good COP in itself. However, a bad deal would hugely undermine the credibility of the newly minted SDG agreement.

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The recent terror attacks in Paris have meant that the public climate marches planned to take place throughout the summit are, quite logically, no longer approved. Although this could be expected to reduce the civil society contribution to the COP discussions, which was seen as being significant, 聽indicates that publics聽still plan to have their say. I would hope that the attacks show most nations that if they want to move into a world where terrorism is at relatively low levels, then greater cooperation is needed. Agreement at COP21 would represent a very positive step forward, which would make it easier to talk about other positive steps forward.

Potential obstacles are likely to be driven by politics鈥攃ountries seeking to protect their national interest, which may involve adjusting the agreement to suit some countries a little bit better, at the expense of others. Broader political power dynamics also come into play. India, for example wants to be seen as a very important player in this. It鈥檚 not going to simply be seen to 鈥渄o what it鈥檚 told,鈥� but will probably seek to 鈥淚ndianize鈥� the deal more. Agriculture is an incredibly tense aspect for India, because it has a large small farmer population鈥攚ith significant democratic power鈥攖o protect.

If the United States does something聽more progressive and ambitious than expected, the rest of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is likely to follow suit. President Barack Obama and his administration want to be part of the agreement, but Congress and the Republicans don鈥檛 want to move on it, due to concern about potential damage to the US economy and jobs.

The chief point is that the agreement has to be something that the US president can sign, that doesn鈥檛 require ratification by the US Senate. A treaty is desirable, because it would be binding and countries can be penalized if they don鈥檛 honor it. However, a treaty would require ratification by the US Congress, which is聽unlikely to pass. A deal that doesn鈥檛 include the US would essentially render it inoperable.

*[This article was originally published by .]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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