51吃瓜

The US presidential campaign debate on Middle East policy has focused disproportionately on the response to the Islamic State. This series instead focuses on five alternative Middle East policy challenges facing the next president. In this fourth part, Ryan J. Suto discusses the US-Saudi special relationship. Read聽part one聽on Iraq,聽part two聽on Tunisia and part three聽on Egypt.

Like other longstanding American relationships in the Middle East, the ties between Washington and Riyadh have nothing to do with human rights or democracy. The alliance rests mostly on two key factors: natural resources and regional stability.

First, in addition to being the custodian of the two holy mosques, the house of Saud is the custodian of a singular holy resource: oil. Saudi Arabia鈥檚 role as the聽聽of the crucial fossil fuel, as well as its cultural and political influence over the聽six other Arab聽, makes friendship with the kingdom a valuable, and seemingly indispensable, asset for a fuel-thirsty superpower.

Second, in the Cold War era, maintaining a balance of power between Western allies such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and Soviet allies such as Iran and Syria, was central to US policy in the region. Making overt advances in non-aligned countries like Egypt or through intermediary forces, such as supporting Saddam Hussein against Iran, was our preferred method of balancing Soviet influence in the region.

In this context, retaining Saudi Arabia as a proxy for Western influence in the Arab world was an easy policy decision. Without American patronage, the Saudis might have turned to Russia. Further, although Saudi Arabia has no formal relations with Israel, unlike Egypt after the Camp David Accords, the Saudis have never used state force against Israel, making the kingdom more palatable to Washington.

Heightened Insecurity

Barack Obama鈥檚 administration has departed from the policies of its predecessors in being聽聽in its dealings with Saudi Arabia. Obama has shown聽聽toward the diplomatic assumption that he and the Saudis will present a common foreign policy in the region. The most dramatic example of this new approach was the signing of the Iran nuclear deal, formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Although he has not spurned all Saudi initiatives鈥攈e has backed the聽鈥擮bama has been willing to diverge from Saudi interests, which has heightened the聽 of聽Saudi leaders.

Saudi Arabia has done much to warrant Obama鈥檚 hesitation. Since the passing of King Abdullah in 2015, King Salman and Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman have intensified the simmering regional rivalry with Iran, attempting to counter the Shia nation in every theater in the region. Departing from post-9/11聽, the kingdom鈥檚 current leadership is now committed to聽either ignoring or supporting聽extremist Sunni theology.

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia聽聽for the Lebanese army over the influence of Hezbollah in the country. Viewing the Houthis in Yemen as聽, Saudi Arabia has聽聽in the country, generating accusations聽聽against civilians in the process. In Saudi Arabia鈥檚 defense, Iran financially聽聽and maintains聽. The country has also played an enlarged role fighting the Islamic State in聽听补苍诲听鈥攐ften aligning with US interests. However, the extent of Iran鈥檚 role in Yemen is聽. Nonetheless, German intelligence labels Saudi Arabia鈥檚 newfound activism in the region as 鈥�.鈥�

Contradictory Posture

Recently, Congress has adopted a contradictory posture toward Saudi Arabia. It has pressed for both the聽聽that details the potential Saudi connection to the 9/11 attacks and on聽聽within the kingdom. It also overrode an Obama veto for the first time to pass a bill allowing the families of 9/11 victims to聽聽as a potential enabler of the attacks. At the same time, Congress blocked an attempt to undermine聽a 聽to Riyadh.

In the post-Cold War world, the interests of Riyadh and Washington in the region聽have increasingly diverged. President Obama is a pivotal figure. His term straddled the and the negotiations to end Iran鈥檚 nuclear program. The next administration must operate in a post-Arab Spring, post-Iran nuclear deal Middle East. If context, and not ideology, justified American ties with Saudi Arabia, new rationales must be found in this new regional context.

The first justification for the Washington-Riyadh relationship, the politics of oil, will undoubtedly remain an important factor for years to come. However, US per-capita consumption of foreign oil has been steadily decreasing for decades, with聽. The declining importance of foreign oil for the US economy will allow future US presidents more room for policy divergence with foreign producers, such as Saudi Arabia.

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The second justification, maintaining regional stability, is now an illusion. A nation or a region is politically 鈥渟table鈥� when it is聽. In the context of the Cold War, where Western-approved dictators ruled largely docile publics, maintaining the status quo meant policy predictability.

However, in the modern Middle East where Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya and Yemen have no effective centralized government that can control the entire state territory, maintaining the status quo means prolonged violence and a proliferation of failed states. And although the Syrian Civil War has given Russia a larger foothold in the region than Washington would prefer, Russian President Vladimir Putin is a far cry from reaching Soviet-era levels of patronage in the region.

If the next administration continues to free US Middle East policy from its Saudi-centric, Cold War-era thinking, Washington will find that it has more flexibility in making a strategic approach to Iran, advancing human rights in the region, and effectively countering political and religious extremism, whether Sunni, Shia or any other variety.

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The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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