51吃瓜

The current US presidential campaign debate on Middle East policy has focused disproportionately on the US response to the Islamic State. This series instead focuses on five alternative Middle East policy challenges facing the next president. In this third part, Ryan J. Suto discusses the future of bilateral relations with Egypt. Read part one on听Iraq听and part two on听Tunisia.

Earlier this month, the Egyptian state听听of both individuals and organizations engaged in human rights advocacy, including the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies, the Hisham Mubarak Law Center, the Egyptian Center for the Right to Education, and their organizational leaders. This is merely the latest episode of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi鈥檚 suppression of dissent within the largest Arab country. The government has cracked down on the听,听听and other activist groups, journalists,听, and nearly any organization accused of criticizing the president or the state.

Since 2014 al-Sisi and his allies have enacted problematic legislation on听,听听and听,听. With the help of a听, these laws have created a largely rubber stamp parliament and have resulted in an estimated听听in Egypt. In 2016 alone,听听have stood trial.

Mixed Response

The US response to these developments in Egypt has been mixed, at best. Following the ouster of the democratically elected, though听, Mohamed Morsi, the Obama administration suspended Washington鈥檚听听of over $1.5 billion to Egypt in October 2013. To regain the financial and military aid, Egypt had to follow a 鈥渞oadmap鈥� to democracy. Less than 18 months later, the US restored the aid despite no real steps toward democratic governance or widened civic participation in Cairo. Washington remains听听how the aid has been spent.

Moreover, during those 18 months, 听to substitute more aid to cover听, amounting to $4 billion. Beyond some strongly worded statements and diplomatic finger wagging, al-Sisi鈥檚 government has faced no concrete pushback from major allies for orchestrating the overthrow of a democratic government and establishing a regime intolerant of dissent and abusive of human rights.

As the Obama administration approaches its last winter, the future of US-Egypt relations inevitably hinges on the disposition of the next commander-in-chief. Against the advice of the DC think-tank community, both major party candidates听听this week during the UN General Assembly session in New York. Notably, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump鈥檚 post-meeting release emphasized maintaining听听with Cairo but made no mention of human right or democracy.

Mitigating Authoritarianism听

In contrast, Democratic candidate听Hillary Clinton raised concerns about听听in Egypt, mirroring statements听听by Secretary of State John Kerry. But Clinton prefers working within the status quo of Egypt. During the Arab Spring protests, she听听not to support the ouster of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. A Clinton White House is unlikely to depart greatly from the Obama White House Egypt policy.

In general, human rights and good governance in Egypt take a back seat in Washington to counterterrorism, safe passage through the Suez Canal and peace with Israel. The most that can be hoped for in the next administration is the mitigation of the continuing oppressive authoritarianism of President al-Sisi, which will, if unabated, lead to increased violence and religious terrorism in the country and potentially beyond.

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Indeed, research has shown that the quashing of religious liberty tends to breed听, and legal and societal marginalization听听populations toward violence as a means to achieving their political goals. By banning and victimizing the Muslim Brotherhood, attempting to听听and marginalizing all political dissent within the country, al-Sisi risks turning Egypt into a breeding ground for terrorism and political violence.

This reality will create headaches for countries throughout the Middle East, as well as subsequent US presidents. Ironically, Washington鈥檚 endless pursuit of stability at the expense of human rights will likely result in an Egypt with neither stability nor human rights.

*[This article was originally published by听.]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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