51吃瓜

Are Scotland and Catalonia willing to do what it takes to achieve independence?

In 2007, the Scottish National Party of holding a referendum over Scotland鈥檚 independence.聽In 2009, some activists detached from聽mainstream聽Catalan parties launched the same proposal in Catalonia and actually held unofficial referenda that聽drove more than a million people to the polls聽voting .

Since then,聽both nations鈥� paths聽have聽diverged.

In Scotland, holding a binding referendum, not a mere advisory one, was deemed outside the legislative powers of the Scottish Parliament, so聽the Scottish government agreed with the British government聽the聽terms of reference聽of the 2014 independence referendum. In due form, both Houses of聽Parliament approved a temporary transfer of聽legal聽authority聽from Westminster to Holyrood聽to call it,聽and the British government 聽that, if independence was won, 鈥淪cotland would become an independent country聽after a process of negotiations.鈥� This would have been an irreversible and binding outcome that would have led, after the conclusion of talks,聽to the UK Parliament legislating for Scottish independence to take place, following the well-trodden path of previous聽umpteen聽Westminster-accepted聽independences from the former empire.

Catalonia鈥檚 path has been a聽bumpier ride. When the mainstream Catalan parties 鈥斅燼ttached to independence as a dream to be attained somewhere over the rainbow and not聽a real issue to聽be addressed in the real world 鈥斅燽egan to feel the heat聽of new parties聽affecting a聽waxing number of their voters who were聽increasingly聽tempted to search for聽political alternatives, they聽tried聽to extract some moneyed concessions from Spain聽to put food on the Catalan table聽but failed. So, they took back control,聽releasing steam聽through government-organized nongovernmental organizations to make people believe they had embraced independence as a real aim, not merely as a dream, and sought to remain in power by riding on the back of a聽grassroots,聽pro-independence tiger, only to be reduced into a tamed pet with his teeth and claws torn off.

Thus these parties dusted off the centuries-old Catalan threat to opt for independence unless they got a better deal from Spain 鈥� a crude blackmail for concessions where聽independence is not a real aim but a mere instrument of extortion. A successful bluff needs the opponent to fold, but an unimpressed Spain didn鈥檛 call it and won the hand, just聽saying no and聽applying聽the laws by聽the judiciary.

This聽chicken game聽reached a climax in November 2014: The聽Catalan parties backtracked from upholding the referendum they had promised once聽it was forbidden by the constitutional court, and instead they organized a so-called 鈥減articipative process.鈥� The Catalans blinked while the Spaniards stood firm. This last straw broke any credibility that Catalonia ever had in Spain and abroad.

Just two聽months prior, voters in Scotland had聽flocked聽to the polls聽and by a 10-point margin.

Back then, a lot of people thought it was the end of the independence game for both聽countries, This was an exercise of wishful thinking,聽conveniently聽forgetting聽that if most people, rightly or wrongly,聽feel mistreated聽and left behind by a callous聽state which is not their聽own, independence聽yearning will come to the surface聽every now and then聽until it聽is achieved or the aggrieved聽feeling聽subdues聽into oblivion.

THE STORY TODAY

Therefore, here we go again, less than聽three years after Scotland and Catalonia鈥檚聽independence defeat. But聽as聽Heraclitus observed, no one聽ever聽steps in the same river twice, for it鈥檚 not the same river 鈥� the waters are continually flowing 鈥� and she鈥檚 not聽the same bather either.

Until now, the main difference between聽both nations聽has dwelt聽in聽Westminster鈥檚聽easy-going聽willingness to allow Scotland to hold a referendum and聽Madrid鈥檚 stubborn refusal to Catalonia having it,聽but there are hints it may not be so聽nowadays.

鈥淣ow is not the time鈥澛爁or a second referendum on Scottish independence聽has been the聽 of British Prime聽Minister Theresa May, meaning .聽Going down in history as the prime minister that presided over both the聽breakup of Britain with the European Union and the breakup of the United Kingdom was a risk that聽the sleepwalking聽David Cameron聽frivolously took, but it鈥檚 unlikely that Westminster will聽incur such a situation聽again.聽Therefore,聽expect a 鈥渘o鈥� answer endlessly masqueraded聽under a聽polite聽grievance-avoiding 鈥渘ot yet.鈥�

This rejection is grounded in what Catalonia has experienced these past five years: It鈥檚 enough for a central government to thwart any move toward an unwanted independence referendum by just saying no.

Since both parties聽stated聽in October 2012 when the was reached聽that聽Scotland does not have the legal power to hold a聽referendum, without the UK Parliament legislation聽it becomes a non-starter as the聽ludicrous聽Catalan experience has showed. In Catalonia, the same parties that promised聽鈥渞eferendum yes or yes鈥� from 2012 to 2014 now聽promise聽鈥渞eferendum or referendum.鈥� They backtracked then and they will backtrack again. We will see a rehearsal of 2014鈥檚 farce now turned into slapstick.

Reality is even more stubborn聽than the Spanish government. Nobody gives a damn about how wicked it has been in denying Catalans their independence referendum 鈥斅燿enied also by Germany and Italy鈥檚 constitutional courts to and Venice these past months.聽Everybody聽cheers聽when an official is indicted and condemned聽for contempt of court聽when failing to abide by a judicial verdict that forbids a non-agreed referendum, as the Council of Europe聽advisory committee has stated and聽encouraged聽judges to do.

GOING IT ALONE?

Some people may聽think there is a聽possibility that聽Scotland could organize its own referendum if the UK government refuses to legislate, but the Catalan 2014聽鈥減articipative process鈥� clearly shows its聽limits: a referendum could not be organized by the Scottish government;聽neither officials nor public money could be used; only volunteers would be able to run it; fundraising聽money聽would have to pay for it;聽lack of public guarantees would cast a shadow over its integrity; unionists聽would boycott it; and any hint of public聽involvement would lead to聽the聽indictment聽of the officials who exercise an illegal聽authority.

Even聽if all these hindrances聽are聽overcome and its credibility is not altogether聽destroyed by the absence of the government鈥檚 role聽in reliably counting votes and preventing聽voting fraud,聽neither political nor legal mandate would result from it, as Catalonia鈥檚 unofficial referenda in 2009-10 and聽2014 have showed,聽since neither the unionists nor the central聽government would ever accept聽the result as legally binding.聽This kind of聽shortcut聽to circumvent聽the lack聽of聽legal聽power to聽run an official referendum can yield聽a聽lot of聽superb results,聽but聽actual聽independence is not one of them.

An inconvenient truth must now be recalled: A referendum or a decision by parliament聽is not an end by itself. They are聽merely the聽accepted democratic means to achieve the聽end聽of creating聽a new independent state that has sovereignty over聽a permanent population in a definite聽territory, exercising supremacy and the monopoly of public authority and聽of the legitimate use of physical force 鈥� the Weberian聽das Monopol legitimen physischen Zwanges:聽the only source of legitimacy for all physical coercion or adjudication of coercion.

No state is willing to relinquish territory to another would-be state;聽hence there are聽two ways聽to substitute the former state by聽the new one. First, the聽actual聽state allows a聽country to decide by itself over its own independence 鈥� running聽a聽binding聽referendum聽or parliamentary vote, abiding by it聽and聽gently retiring if losing. Second, the new would-be state聽takes power off the actual state, grabbing it against its will in a full-blown confrontation stemming from聽the聽 by Professor Zoran聽Oklopcic about Catalonia: 鈥淸T]he evidence of the legitimacy of your project, and the guarantee of its success, lies not in the performance of the dignity of your aspiration, or in the simulation of your sovereignty, but in the ultimate sacrifice of yourself, and others.鈥�

In this last case, there would be an interim situation of two states 鈥� the existing one and the newly proclaimed 鈥� both willing to impose their mutually exclusive monopoly of public authority and聽of the legitimate use of physical force over the same population into the same territory. The International Court of Justice in聽2010: 鈥淒uring the eighteenth, nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, there were numerous instances of declarations of independence, often strenuously opposed by the State from which independence was being declared. Sometimes a declaration resulted in the creation of a new State, at others it did not.鈥�

It all depends then on the so-called principle of effectiveness, otherwise known as 鈥渕ight is right.鈥� In other words, the facts on the ground 鈥� often but not always stemming from the boots on the ground 鈥� will decide which of the competing states prevails and wins.

The only non-violent way to achieve independence is thus with the agreement of the actual state,聽applying internal and international聽pressure聽strong enough to聽force聽it to聽yield and聽allow a legally-binding聽referendum聽organized聽by public authorities. That being said, it is very easy to block everything by simply saying聽no, as the last聽eight unsuccessful Catalan years have showed.

LAST CHANCE

If the Scottish and Catalan people聽are serious about聽their independence craving,聽if they really want it and are willing to pay the price instead of merely wishing a cherished dream,聽then this may be their聽鈥渙nce in a generation鈥� last chance.聽Freedom is not free,聽but聽dependence聽isn鈥檛 either. A聽resigned acceptance of the status quo to avoid the risks and uncertainties that independence, agreed or not, holds聽can only be overcome聽by a stubborn willpower, since withdrawal comes at a price.

It could be even worse, as the late French Prime Minister Michel Rocard said to a former Catalan vice president in 2015: 鈥淎re you Catalans still making those so beautiful rallies on the street? And politics, when?鈥� The Catalan people鈥檚 craving for independence has stalled in a swamp barely able to assuage their fears and moral virtues and warmly sharing the wound-licking communitarian therapy sessions delivering nothing but an upsetting, irksome, extremely boring and acrimonious, chronic, topsy-turvy parade of cranky Catalans and annoyed Spaniards 鈥� the latter unwilling to let Catalans go and the former unwilling to go by themselves.

The Scottish people do not deserve this awful Catalan outcome. It is up to them to avoid this, playing politics instead. Perhaps they will not achieve independence, but at the very least they will not fritter away their dignity and pride.

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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