51吃瓜

On June 23, the United Kingdom will vote on its membership in the European Union.

Background

When on the United Kingdom鈥檚 membership in the European Union (EU) in 2013, the possibility of a Brexit was distant and unrealistic. At the time, the pledge appeared to be a political swatting at the Tory back bench and UK Independence Party (UKIP) buzz around immigration and euroskepticism鈥攈edged against the Conservative Party winning a majority mandate in Parliament in 2015.

Today, the scales have turned. The refugee crisis, financial instability and the expansion of the EU to include new states like Bulgaria and Romania have soured attitudes toward Europe in Britain, as evidenced by in the general election. The Conservatives鈥� electoral success came as a surprise to everyone, including the party itself, and Cameron now finds himself in an awkward position of rallying the troops against what can become a disintegration of the European project, instigated by his very own political pandering to the right.

With the stage set for June 23, the Vote Leave and Britain Stronger in Europe campaigns are pouring fuel on the fire that is the EU referendum debate. One of the country鈥檚 leading newspapers, The Economist, concedes that the 鈥�.鈥� Indeed, after more than three decades of Britain鈥檚 membership in first the European Economic Community (EEC) and then the EU, separating the claims on both sides is not unlike being party to a couple鈥檚 quarrel.

The he-said-she-said nature of the campaign has been trying to claim all the key issues at stake: the economy, the bureaucracy, immigration and the nation鈥檚 darling鈥攖he National Health Service (NHS).

The Vote Leave campaign, backed by six of the 29 cabinet ministers, including Cameron鈥檚 personal friend and Justice Secretary Michael Gove, is claiming that Britain will be able to negotiate better trade deals with both Europe and the rest of the world if it is no longer bound by EU restrictions. The point it has been exploiting most avidly is the retaining of the 拢350 million that Britain pays Brussels every week鈥攎oney that, the campaign is claiming, can be diverted to the NHS, education and research.

The Vote Remain camp counters this with threats of financial instability that would follow a Brexit, supported by a timely drop of the British pound to its lowest rate against the dollar since 2009 following then-London Mayor Boris Johnson鈥檚 announced backing for the Vote Leave side. , and many are skeptical that any of them would greet Britain with open arms given its 鈥渃herry-picking鈥� attitude. Given that versus just under 10% from the EU to Britain, many on the Vote Remain side are loathe to risk breaking up the existing system in lieu of something unpredictable.

The question of immigration provides the bitter undertone to the otherwise predominantly economic slant of the campaign. Although the , there is a negative attitude toward the effects of immigration on the welfare and health care sectors, employment and education, among others. The inclination toward has been largely unchanged since 2008, but with the NHS and immigration topping the list of national concerns, it is easy to see how the presence of over is causing tension.

Two papers cited by Channel 4鈥檚 fact-checking team show that than they pay into the system when compared to 鈥渁ny kind of immigrant.鈥� A recent report commissioned by the concluded that immigration helps Britain sustain its aging population, which is supported by that arrivals from EEA countries paid over 拢3 billion in income tax and national insurance in 2013-14, while taking out just over half a billion in benefits.

But the Vote Remain side鈥檚 claims that you are much more likely to be treated by an EU immigrant than find one in a hospital bed next to you fall on many deaf ears, with the Vote Leave camp resorting to Australia鈥檚 point system that was previously suggested鈥攁nd largely ignored鈥攂y UKIP鈥檚 leader Nigel Farage in a call to protect British jobs and services.

Why Does Brexit Matter?

The European Union has a special place in history. It is the culmination of the process of peace and cooperation that evolved out of mankind鈥檚 most destructive war in an attempt to unite a continent along cultural, economic and political lines. What began as the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in 1951 is today the world鈥檚 biggest single market, comprising 28 member states. To many, it is living proof of the democratic ethos of enlightened progress.

The United Kingdom applied to join in 1961, and it took over a decade to be admitted in 1973. The majority of the nine countries then comprising the EEC were wealthier than Britain, making its economic success an integral part of the EU story. As the world鈥檚 fifth largest economy, today鈥檚 Britain negotiates from a position of unprecedented power, with a decision to leave the union putting听a strain on the very idea of the European Union that has not seen a break in the ranks since Greenland鈥檚 inauspicious departure in 1985.

There are endless questions for voters to consider. Would the UK benefit from new trade agreements with, say, China, over the EU? Would food and energy prices go up? Would EU research grants be replaced by government funding? By how much would immigration fall, and what would that mean for the economy? How would foreign investment and financial services be affected? Would the question of Scottish independence be reopened? What would happen to the 2 million Brits and 2 million EU citizens living across the channel from each other? Would saving the $12 billion that Britain pays into the EU budget outweigh the economic benefits of being part of the EU market? Where would that money go? Would Britain be safer behind closed borders? The list goes on.

To some, a Brexit would be a long-overdue opportunity for the UK to retake control over its legislative and economic decisions. To others, it signifies a relinquishing of control in a system in which it will nevertheless have to take part, but now as a voiceless outsider. Regardless of the outcome, in this time of crisis, the referendum is laying bare the dark side of the crisis of European unity and identity.

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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