51吃瓜

Inside the halls of power and outside on the campaign trail, US politics is a mess.

The leading Republican candidate for the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump, faces four criminal indictments. The leading Democratic candidate, President Joe Biden, has favorability ratings. The presidential race has so far generated as much positive enthusiasm as a barroom brawl between two old duffers, which in a certain sense it is.

Meanwhile, in Washington, Congress was deadlocked for three weeks in October because the Republican Party couldn鈥檛 decide on a new Speaker of the House. Finally, the party chose the far-right politician Mike Johnson, whose was his greatest asset, because he hadn鈥檛 made enough enemies among his colleagues to sink his candidacy. Obscurity also translates into precious little deal-making experience, which is not a good sign when the federal government faces a shutdown in just a few months, despite a , if the two major parties can鈥檛 agree on a spending bill.

President Biden鈥檚 spending woes

With a year left before Americans go to the polls in yet another supremely consequential election, President Biden is eager to keep the economy on an even keel and demonstrate resolve in the field of foreign policy. The latter has been sorely tested. Not only has the administration attempted to maintain support for Ukraine in its battle against Russian occupation forces, it is now trying to increase military assistance to Israel in its fight against Hamas.

Toward that end, the administration has proposed a $105 billion that bundles together military aid to Ukraine and Israel along with funding for Taiwan, increased security at the US鈥揗exico border, and some humanitarian assistance for Palestinians.

In typical DC style, the bill contains something for nearly everyone. And yet, it still manages to piss off nearly everyone.

Most of the money earmarked for Ukraine and Israel would go to the Pentagon to replenish its stocks of weaponry to send to those countries. Congressional supporters of military spending, who make up the vast majority of lawmakers, should be delighted that, of the $61 billion slated for Ukraine, $44 billion would go to the Pentagon, while $10 billion of the $14 billion for Israel would also go to the military-industrial complex. China hawks will rejoice at the money for Taiwan while MAGA Republicans should be happy about the $13 billion for 鈥渂order security.鈥� The bill also includes some of the humanitarian aid to Palestinians that progressives have been urging.

Bundling is a traditional tactic for building consensus in a divided Congress. But it might not work this time, not only because the House is divided but because the Republican Party itself is a house divided.

Splits within the Republican party

On the issue of Ukraine, Republicans come in three flavors.

Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell heads up the plain vanilla faction. He supports Ukraine because he doesn鈥檛 like Russia, believes the United States is still locked in a cold war with this evil-ish empire and was horrified by Trump鈥檚 pro-Putin statements over the years. McConnell is no friend of Biden鈥檚, but he buys the administration鈥檚 frankly distasteful argument that the West is engaged in a civilizational struggle against a common enemy. For these reasons, McConnell has to support the bundled funding in the Senate, though with some important caveats.

Over in the House, Mike Johnson straddles the vanilla faction and the Rocky Road crew: he鈥檚 a scoop of vanilla with some nuts sprinkled on top. Like McConnell, he is no friend of Russia. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine, because I don鈥檛 believe it would stop there, and it would probably encourage and empower China to perhaps make a move on Taiwan,鈥� Johnson Fox News. 鈥淲e have these concerns. We鈥檙e not going to abandon them.鈥�

But Johnson has also adopted most of the positions of the nut-filled MAGA faction, from its unmitigated support for Trump to its diehard opposition to abortion. So, despite his aversion to Putin, Johnson has a bill to divide the funding for Israel from the money for Ukraine, presumably so that the far right can register its disapproval of the latter without compromising its approval of the former.

Johnson鈥檚 colleagues have various problems with the bill. J. D. Vance the small amount of humanitarian aid for Palestinians. Other Republicans have taken aim at the measure that was included precisely to curry their favor 鈥� money for border security 鈥� because suddenly they don鈥檛 care about money but insist instead on a change in administration policy.

Johnson is a budget-cutter, and he knows that of Republicans believe that the value of aid to Ukraine is not worth the cost (compared to a mere 29% of Democrats). Reducing government spending is a perennial favorite of the Republicans going into an election (as opposed to after they win an election, when they go on a spending spree). As a result, Johnson supports the crowd-pleasing (but budget-busting) tactic of funds for the Internal Revenue Service to pay for the military assistance.

But the leading criticism of the bill, from the far right, concerns Ukraine. Why the skepticism? Vance about 鈥渁n endless conflict with no plan from the Biden administration.鈥� But Vance and friends are not anti-war, anti-intervention or anti-militarist. The signers of a congressional in September to the Biden administration vowing to oppose any further aid to Ukraine, aside from the libertarian Rand Paul, have no problem preparing for 鈥渁n endless conflict鈥� with China.

In fact, many of these fixtures of Trump鈥檚 political universe have a residual affection for Vladimir Putin. In many ways, he鈥檚 their ideal politician: anti-LGBT, pro-Church, anti-liberal, pro-sovereignty, anti-woke. He鈥檚 also the leader of a predominantly white country that has many in white supremacist circles in the West. Finally, Vladimir was one of Donald鈥檚 best buds. Republican Senate nominee Lauren Witzke summed up the MAGA position when she back in April 2022 that anyone who supports Ukraine is 鈥渆ither transgender, a Satanist, or a straight-up Nazi.鈥� Methinks that Witzke doth project too much.

But it鈥檚 not just failed politicians who make these arguments. 鈥淣ATO has been supplying the neo-Nazis in Ukraine with powerful weapons and extensive training on how to use them,鈥� Marjorie Taylor-Greene back in March 2022. Paul Gosar in May 2022 when he said that 鈥淯kraine is not our ally. Russia is not our enemy.鈥� More recently, Tommy Tuberville that Democrats 鈥渃reated鈥� the war in Ukraine. Who needs Twitter trolls when US lawmakers indulge in such fictions?

Making the wrong link

It鈥檚 one thing to link aid to Ukraine and Israel as a political tactic. It鈥檚 quite another to make the larger argument that the money goes toward fighting the 鈥渟ame enemy.鈥� Putin and Hamas have almost nothing in common beyond their militant illiberalism. Putin has turned Russia into an imperial power that has attacked its neighbors, occupied Ukraine, and attempted to establish an international network of illiberal states. Hamas is a reactionary entity that has enough power to commit atrocities but not enough power to occupy territory鈥攏ot even its 鈥渙wn鈥� territory of Gaza as the current Israeli invasion demonstrates.

If there are any comparisons to be made between the two regions, Russia鈥檚 counterpart is not Hamas but Israel, an increasingly far-right polity with messianic dreams that has been steadily expanding its control within the already Occupied Territories.

Unfortunately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also bought into this civilizational discourse, coming out in strong support of Israel. His statements, however much they reflect his personal outrage at Hamas鈥檚 attacks, are largely directed at US audiences. The Israelis have already indicated, by an offer from Zelensky to visit in solidarity after the Hamas attacks, that there won鈥檛 be a quid pro quo in terms of boosting their support for Ukraine. So, Zelensky鈥檚 real goal is to help advance the $105 billion bill in Congress.

There鈥檚 a definite downside to this strategy. Zelensky鈥檚 attempts over the last year to woo Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, are taking a hit from his defense of Israel. In August, Saudi Arabia hosted a meeting in Jeddah to consolidate support for Ukraine鈥檚 ten-point peace plan. Now, all of that patient diplomacy is at risk. A of key countries, such as China, Egypt and the UAE, didn鈥檛 attend a follow-up meeting last weekend in Malta, and Saudi support seems to have as well.

Putin didn鈥檛 plan Hamas鈥檚 deadly intervention in Israel, but he must be pleased at the geopolitical . On the other hand, being lumped together with Hamas, conceptually and budget-wise, doesn鈥檛 do Russia any favors. Ukraine鈥檚 image, at least among a certain class of wavering Republicans, might benefit from the faulty comparison.

Looking toward 2024

The US economy is in relatively good shape, at least according to the conventional indicators: low unemployment, modest growth, tamed inflation. Despite the usual link between pocketbook issues and political favorability, Joe Biden鈥檚 approval ratings remain in the dumps.

On certain foreign policy issues, however, Biden is doing better. His approval rating on Ukraine is a few points than his overall polling. When it comes to US policy toward Israel and Hamas, the gap is in Biden鈥檚 favor.

At this point in the campaign, at least, Biden is building the case that he is the more competent candidate when it comes to global issues. It鈥檚 not clear, though, whether American voters will care a year from now that America鈥檚 reputation is considerably higher around the world under Biden than it was under Trump. Being a competent statesman with an agile secretary of state would certainly guarantee Biden a presidential victory 鈥� if everyone in the world voted in the US election.

For better or worse, however, only Americans will go to the polls next November. Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee, will claim that he is the 鈥減eace candidate,鈥� didn鈥檛 start any wars when he was president, 鈥済ot us out of Afghanistan,鈥� and would have restrained the adventurism of both Putin and Netanyahu. All of this is , but elections rarely bring out the rational side of an electorate.

With the latest supplemental funding bill, the Biden administration hopes that it can help Ukraine win the war and somehow contain the damage of the Israel-Hamas conflict. This is a pipe dream, since US influence is limited. But this 鈥渘ew and improved鈥� mission to fight a civilizational war, however false the narrative, might prove sufficiently convincing to speed passage of the supplemental funding bill and, in appealing to plain-vanilla conservatives and a few independents, perhaps win a presidential election as well.

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The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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