51吃瓜

One of modern history鈥檚 major empires is falling apart right now, right before our eyes. Yet precious few in the media have reported on this extraordinary event, much less offered any analysis of its implications for the fast-changing shape of global power.

Over the past 60 years, France has used every possible diplomatic device, overt and covert, fair and foul, to incorporate some 14 African nations into a neocolonial imperium called 鈥�贵谤补苍莽补蹿谤颈辩耻别鈥� 鈥� a vast region covering a quarter of Africa and stretching for nearly 3,000 miles from Senegal on the Atlantic coast to Chad in the continent鈥檚 center.

While the rest of that continent frequently suffered from wars, coups, and chronic instability, 贵谤补苍莽补蹿谤颈辩耻别 long enjoyed comparative peace. By dispatching paratroopers from its many African bases (or secret agents for the occasional assassination), Paris provided a rough version of stability 鈥� even if at the price of endemic corruption, entrenched autocratic rule, and deep economic exploitation. Recently, however, a rising nationalist consciousness in many of those relatively new countries has begun chafing against France鈥檚 repeated transgressions of their sovereignty. As French colonial and post-colonial dominance over this vast region moved ever deeper into its second century, unease bordering on open hostility against that country鈥檚 presence began to build.

The Dramatic French Retreat from 贵谤补苍莽补蹿谤颈辩耻别 

In less than a year, in fact, the sudden withdrawal of French troops from individual African nations has turned into a full-blown retreat from much of the region. As terrorists affiliated with the Islamic State first became active in 2014, France deployed some 5,000 elite troops for Operation Barkhane in collaboration with six nations of Africa鈥檚 arid Sahel region, the strip of territory extending across the continent, largely south of the Sahara Desert.

Yet just last December, French troops left the Central African Republic after Paris that the local government there was 鈥渃omplicit in an anti-French campaign allegedly steered by Russia.鈥� In February, Burkina Faso鈥檚 new military government simply French forces and hailed its new 鈥渟trategic partnership鈥� with Russia. And in August, following back-to-back coups in Mali, that country鈥檚 ruling junta grew resentful of the 2,400 French troops stationed there and forced them to into neighboring Niger, which became the new main base for their operations in the Sahel region. Then, last month, French President Emmanuel Macron was forced to announce that he was pulling his troops and his ambassador out of Niger as well. After seizing power in July, that country鈥檚 new military junta had demanded just such a French departure and, to drive the point home, closed its airspace to France. 鈥淚mperialist and neocolonialist forces are no longer welcome on our national territory,鈥� the junta .

Amid such geopolitical upheaval, a most unlikely man from Moscow appeared on the spot in 2017. His name 鈥� now all too well known 鈥� was Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder and commander of a notorious mercenary army, the Wagner Group. As the French retreated slowly and exceedingly reluctantly from their post-colonial imperium, Wagner began moving in, becoming Moscow鈥檚 surrogate in an ongoing great-power contest for influence and control in Africa.

By the time in late 2022 that France鈥檚 failing nine-year effort to secure the Sahel was drawing down, Wagner鈥檚 forces were already operating secret gold , running the largest gold mine in the Central African Republic with of $100 million annually, and had earned $200 million since 2021 providing security for Mali, a land roiled by Islamist rebels. In March, Washington Chad鈥檚 president that Wagner mercenaries were plotting to assassinate him and were also preparing Chadian rebels to attack from their bases in the Central African Republic. After the July coup in Niger, cheering crowds were seen (as well as wearing) Russian flags. And as 1,500 French troops and that country鈥檚 ambassador , Niger鈥檚 new military leaders promptly for support, expanding Russia鈥檚 sphere of influence in the French imperium it was fast supplanting.

The strategic implications of this shift, should it continue, are potentially profound. As the NATO alliance moved ever closer to Russia鈥檚 sensitive western border in the 1990s, Moscow reacted early in this century (prior to the invasion of 2022) with repeated interventions in Ukraine, launched special operations to secure its allies in Central Asia, and, above all, engaged in a little understood geopolitical flanking maneuver across two continents.

The thrust of that move started in 2015 when Moscow leapfrogged over the NATO barrier of Turkey to open a at Latakia in northern Syria. Soon, Russian planes had reduced rebel-held cities like to rubble. In 2021, leapfrogging again, this time over the close American ally Israel, Russia began with two dozen of its advanced Sukhoi-35 jet fighters so its airmen could compete with Israelis flying advanced American F-35 fighter planes, which Washington refused to supply to Cairo. Completing Moscow鈥檚 southern push in the region, Russian President Vladimir Putin began building upon their shared interests as oil exporters to try to Saudi Arabia鈥檚 functional leader, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, becoming so close by late last year that Western observers began to express concern about the possible loss of a key ally.

The final geopolitical pivot in Russia鈥檚 recent maneuvering proved particularly controversial and so initially remained significantly covert: the Wagner Group was used to extend Russia鈥檚 influence country by country, deal by dirty deal, across the Sahel. Should this process continue successfully into the near future, Moscow will have flanked Europe (and so the U.S. as well) by forming a geopolitical arc of influence sweeping south through the Middle East and extending west across the whole of the Sahel that stretches from the Red Sea to the Atlantic Ocean.

For this maneuver to succeed, however, the end of French neocolonialism proved crucial. To appreciate the historical significance of the impending fall of Paris鈥檚 post-colonial empire, it鈥檚 important to understand something of its tangled history 鈥� otherwise it would be hard to grasp the full import of Yevgeny Prigozhin鈥檚 extraordinary role as the man on the spot in extending Russia鈥檚 influence into Africa for the first time since the Cold War.

The Hidden History of 贵谤补苍莽补蹿谤颈辩耻别

As the bitter, bloody French colonial war in Algeria was winding down to defeat in 1960, President Charles de Gaulle realized that the age of empire was ending and used his enormous prestige to grant independence to 14 West African nations. Yet his move was far from altruistic. As part of his vision of France as an independent global power, he began working to create a post-colonial sphere of influence by subsuming the new nations into an exclusive French zone called 贵谤补苍莽补蹿谤颈辩耻别.  

While de Gaulle鈥檚 visionary rhetoric inspired an independent foreign policy, his 鈥渕an of the shadows,鈥� presidential adviser Jacques Foccart, a full-scale covert apparatus for a post-colonial imperium that became the dark underside of the grand Gaullist state. During his service under Gaullist governments from 1960 to 1997, the shadowy Foccart used the state鈥檚 clandestine agency, Service de Documentation Ext茅rieure et de Contre-Espionnage, to maintain a deft, delicate synergy between metropolitan power in France and covert control of Francophone Africa. As head of de Gaulle鈥檚 political party and architect of its secret services, he would become between the French executive and 贵谤补苍莽补蹿谤颈辩耻别鈥檚 African leaders, whom he personally selected, befriended, and defended with covert action.   

At the moment of independence in 1960, Foccart bound all of those former colonies (except Guinea) to Paris by defense agreements that granted France military bases and the right of armed intervention in each country. In the process, he also developed treaties meant to secure strategic materials (cobalt, copper, oil, and uranium) from those countries, as well as a common currency pegged to the French franc that would ensure control of their economies.   

Under this postcolonial iteration of informal empire, French troops shuttled in and out of West Africa, conducting more than 40 military interventions between 1960 and 2002, while maintaining a at a half-dozen military bases on the continent. Although the rest of Africa suffered 188 coup attempts from 1956 to 2001, the readiness of the French military to quash any such effort provided 贵谤补苍莽补蹿谤颈辩耻别 with what political scientist Crawford Young an 鈥渆ffective inoculation against conspiracies鈥� and so minimized and even controlled coups. Despite vivid personality cults, systemic corruption, and state terror, French complicity in all of the above assured its African allies of an extraordinary political longevity 鈥� exemplified by Omar Bongo who ruled Gabon for more than four decades.

With its lucrative oil concessions and its full integration into Foccart鈥檚 network, the exemplary state in 贵谤补苍莽补蹿谤颈辩耻别 was undoubtedly Gabon 鈥� an unbearably poor country of 500,000 people that was surprisingly rich in natural resources. Three years after independence in 1960, as the country鈥檚 president lay dying of cancer in a Paris hospital, Foccart picked , a veteran of French intelligence with no political base, as the ailing president鈥檚 running mate in the next election. That ticket then captured 99.5% of the vote, assuring that Bongo, though still just 31 years old, would succeed the president at his death six months later.   

As Gabon鈥檚 political opposition revived in 1971, Foccart鈥檚 office dispatched the infamous mercenary Bob Denard as a 鈥渢echnical adviser鈥� to President Bongo. Not surprisingly, when an influential opposition leader arrived home one night from the movies, an from the shadows and killed him, also wounding his wife and child. His body was never recovered.

During the long years of his rule, French officials enabled , making him a principal shareholder in that country鈥檚 lucrative Elf-Total oil company and facilitating illicit payments to him 鈥� estimated at $111 million a year 鈥� that were only exposed at the 2003 corruption trial of the company鈥檚 chief executive.   

When he died in 2009 after a rule of 42 years, London鈥檚 The Telegraph that he had looted revenues from the nation鈥檚 2.5 billion barrel oil reserve to 鈥渂ecome one of the world鈥檚 richest men,鈥� while elevating 鈥渃orruption to a method of government.鈥� His son Ali-Ben Bongo succeeded him as president, inheriting, along with his siblings, in France worth $190 million and a country with a third of its population living on two dollars a day.

The son continued many of his father鈥檚 policies, including ruthlessly rigging the 2016 election by enforcing a in key districts. In August, however, after one too many rigged elections and amid an eruption of coups across the region that marked the fading of France鈥檚 post-colonial power, Ali Bongo was finally toppled by a , ending a dynasty that had lasted nearly six decades.

Advent of Moscow鈥檚 Africa Man

To challenge that French post-colonial imperium built by cunning, corruption, and covert skullduggery, Moscow needed an operative who could match Jacques Foccart鈥檚 legendary mastery of the dirty business of empire, measure for measure. And it found him in the person of Yevgeny Prigozhin, one of those quixotic, improbable adventurers who, over the past two centuries, have served as the vanguards of new forms of empire.   

Who was that extraordinary individual whose personal initiative shook up the world order in Africa, establishing a Russian mercenary troop presence and ties to governments in at least seven African countries? Emerging from Soviet prisons after a 10-year term for a teenage mugging spree, Prigozhin rose, through Vladimir Putin鈥檚 patronage, from a hot-dog vendor on the streets of St. Petersburg to a for Russian schools and troops.

In 2014, his Wagner group of mercenaries as the shadowy 鈥渓ittle green men鈥� during the Russian seizure of Crimea and then moved on to where they engaged in a war of atrocities. Between conflicts, his fired off disinformation barrages meant to influence the 2016 presidential elections in the United States. As French influence in the Sahel was challenged by terrorist groups, Prigozhin inserted his Wagner mercenaries being opened by the ending of Paris鈥� post-colonial empire and turned those cracks into gaping holes.

When in 2022, as the first year of the Ukraine war was ending with Russian troops suffering demoralizing defeats at Kharkiv and Kherson, Prigozhin expanded his Wagner Syrian and African franchises to Ukraine, fielding some as troops for Putin鈥檚 military, a force that took heavy casualties while winning the battle for the devastated Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Instead of celebrating his victory, Progozhin was growing ever more dissatisfied with Russia鈥檚 military chiefs.

鈥淭hese are Wagner lads who died today,鈥� he while pointing at a pile of corpses. 鈥淭hose bastards who don鈥檛 give us ammunition, we will fucking eat their guts in fucking hell!鈥� Within weeks his war of words had escalated into open conflict in Russia itself. In late June, Wagner鈥檚 troops to Moscow 鈥� smashing through barriers, shooting down Russian aircraft, and raising doubts about Vladimir Putin鈥檚 grip on power.  

Flailing desperately to survive after defying Putin and halting the advance of his troops on Moscow, Prigozhin returned to Africa, in his private jet at Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic where his Wagner Group has gold mines and a security contract. After a private meeting with that country鈥檚 president on August 18th, he flew on to Mali and drove out into the desert where he produced what would turn out to be his last video ever. Holding an assault rifle, he : 鈥淭he Wagner PMC [private military company] makes Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa more free.鈥� Five days later, his private jet on a flight from Moscow, killing Prigozhin and everyone else on board.

Even though Prigozhin was (like so many of ), his extraordinary relationship with Africa highlights an overlooked aspect of modern empires in what still passes for the post-imperial age. Despite the oft-cited role of military power in creating and maintaining them, individuals have often emerged from the covert realm to play surprisingly significant parts in the making of the post-modern version of empire.

Instead of the gentlemen adventurers of the British imperial age, our modern analogues are usually, like Prigozhin, covert operatives, often from anything but gentlemanly backgrounds. And count on one thing: as the struggle to shape and control northern Africa continues through what will undoubtedly be countless new chapters, Prigozhin will not be the last of those extraordinary secret agents, those men on the spot, who leave their fingerprints on the crime scenes of world history.

[ first published this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.