51吃瓜

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu鈥檚 鈥溾�� hold the key to the new Syrian government鈥檚 legitimization with the West 鈥� immediate demilitarization south of Damascus and protection of the Syrian Druze. The aftermath of the recent clashes in Suwayda negotiations in and over the last couple of weeks.

Israel recently launched on Damascus after sectarian violence escalated in the south, resulting in over , including an visiting his parents, in Suwayda province, before the parties quickly the ceasefire.聽

Furthermore, the new American ally and President of Syria, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, did not warmly welcome Netanyahu鈥檚 outlining a of Syrian land south of Damascus due to the violence. Representatives from both countries recently met in regarding the issue, where Syrian unity was deemed nonnegotiable and demands for Israeli withdrawal went unanswered.

Though the US in support for Syria鈥檚 renaissance and its own role as intermediary for Israel, Special Envoy Tom Barrack that Jolani 鈥渞ecalibrate his policies and embrace a more inclusive approach.鈥� This also prompted a from the US State Department, serving more as a formality to the American victim鈥檚 family and growing among various .

With no 鈥溾�� to Jolani, his failure to contain the barbaric attacks on minorities in Syria directly threatens the new regime鈥檚 legitimacy as it raises concerns from its newfound in the West, hinders of normalization and reinforces Israel鈥檚 defensive position that counters America鈥檚 stance in the region.聽

Internal dynamics

Jolani鈥檚 weak control over Syria鈥檚 several factions erodes public trust in its so-called path to , enables bloodshed across the country and proves that a new stage name, haircut and suit are not enough to shed a violent past. To avoid the risk of a second collapse, the terrorist organization Hay鈥檃t Tahrir al Sham (HTS) must be held accountable for its of minorities and ultimately expelled from the country.

Civil tension due to clashing internal demographics has resulted in ongoing oppression and an impending climax between Syria鈥檚 largest : HTS, the Kurdish-dominated and American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), Druze militia and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

Though Damascus signed an to integrate the SDF into new Syrian institutions, it may serve as a delayed collapse at best, given the Kurdish group鈥檚 calls for federalism and sovereignty that state representatives as a 鈥渟eparatist鈥澛� movement.聽

Furthermore, and delays in transferring control to the energy distribution sector reveal a lack of trust in the new deal, which ongoing instability in other parts of the country continues to undermine. Talks between the Kurds and Syrian officials were set up in Paris this past weekend, but Damascus backed out at the last minute due to from Turkey.

In HTS-controlled Idlib, Christian clergy are still not to walk in public with their clergy uniform or anything that identifies them as priests. At the same time, the new administration also implemented a law requiring all women to wear (conservative Islamic swimwear for women) at all public beaches and pools, signifying a step backwards for freedom after the ousting of Assad.

The deadly escalation between the Druze and local Bedouin tribes in Suwayda brought special attention to the unhinged nature of the new regime. It precipitated military intervention from Israel, which ended with a state-led evacuation of Bedouins from the province 鈥� a desperate response to halt Netanyahu鈥檚 attacks on Damascus and grasp the little stability left in the region.

Rumors suggest that a secret committee, led by Jolani鈥檚 brother Kazem, is working to rebuild Syria鈥檚 economy, raising additional fears that is simply replacing Assad鈥檚 oligarchy. The committee allegedly still companies and businesspeople from the Assad era to ensure uninterrupted cash flow and control, risking chances of economic success through continued hypocrisy and corruption.聽聽聽

Impact on regional diplomacy

Though Jolani has done a decent job in the diplomatic realm 鈥� renewing relations with the West, United Nations and some neighboring Gulf countries 鈥� foreign engagement and investment will only be as stable as Syria鈥檚 internal population. 

The EU and US granted the original lifting of sanctions based on the to establish rights for minorities and form more stable civil relations in Syria. Greece and Cyprus originally EU efforts to boost the new regime鈥檚 economy in fear of the ethnic killings, , arbitrary , and continued that have unfolded since.聽

France and Germany to contribute funds or declare complete normalization until they see a political structure established. Egypt鈥檚 El-Sisi, his own instability, is towards legitimizing the new Syria for of being next.聽

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) also initially to monitor the developing Islamist power before engaging in formal . Jolani must first address the warring factions and establish democratic freedoms, as external diplomacy cannot succeed without these foundational elements.

Ongoing violence and Netanyahu鈥檚 conditional intervention threaten Saudi Arabia鈥檚 recent investment pledge to a unified Syria. The ramifications of the investments may experience a delay similar to that of the Saudi-Syrian Business Council, which was originally planned for June and postponed due to the Twelve-Day War.

Syria鈥檚 successful return to the global stage through post-war reconstruction partly relies on the return of , who also await more stable social and infrastructural conditions. Normalization with Assad鈥檚 Syria in its return to the Arab League in 2023 kick-started a , tested by its new government over one year later.

Since 2011, the conflict has displaced over people, leaving many homes and businesses and discouraging the diaspora from returning. Though external investment and engagement are crucial for Syria鈥檚 reconstruction, Jolani can only attract that reality with a truly inclusive and free environment for the domestic population.

Israel鈥檚 security dilemma

Historically, has mobilized to combat possible security threat scenarios in the bordering region. Now, with recent persecution of minorities in the south, Netanyahu must weigh the return of diplomatic engagement versus isolation and the risks of solo intervention under the guise of Israel鈥檚 national security.

Domestic fragility under Jolani further Israel鈥檚 security and fortifies its defensive positioning in southern Syria, fuels Netanyahu鈥檚 disputed control of the Golan Heights and ultimately jeopardizes rumored negotiations for normalization that materialized from during the Twelve Day War.

across the country also complicate Syria鈥檚 newfound relations with the US and the greater West, prompting the UN to release a disclaimer denouncing the just months after it special envoy Bassam Sabbagh to a security council briefing.

Jolani鈥檚 early promises of and inclusivity in the new Syria have yet to materialize, as his government clearly aims for a future in the opposite direction. The publicized to create a system with 鈥渘o single ruler [making] arbitrary decisions鈥� was lost as soon as he control of every pillar of government, passing an 鈥渋nterim鈥� constitution granting him executive, legislative, and judicial authority for five years.

Jolani must now rein in his HTS counterparts from their killing sprees to cultivate true stability within and outside his borders. Without stability at home, Syria鈥檚 regime risks both international isolation and regional blowback 鈥� as its instability prompts Israeli military recalibration and an uncertain future.

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The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.