51吃瓜

US on Israel to switch gears and focus on targeted precision strikes and killings, rather than indiscriminate bombing of the Gaza Strip, is potentially heightening the risk of the war escalating into a regional bust-up and expanding beyond the Middle East.

The heightened risk suggests US efforts to allow Israel to continue attempting to destroy Hamas while minimizing civilian Palestinian casualties may backfire. This would further underline that a ceasefire is the only way of preventing an escalation, protecting innocent lives and securing the release of Hamas-held hostages.

Disputes between allies

Despite the risk, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on his fifth visit to Tel Aviv since the war began, 鈥淚srael鈥檚 right to prevent another October 7 from occurring鈥� in talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, he 鈥渟tressed the importance of avoiding civilian harm, protecting civilian infrastructure and ensuring the distribution of humanitarian assistance throughout Gaza.鈥� Blinken was referring to Hamas鈥� October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that sparked the Israeli assault on Gaza.

His reference to infrastructure constituted the United States鈥� first public criticism of Israeli attacks on Gazan hospitals, schools, and other civilian infrastructure. Signaling differences with Blinken, Netanyahu鈥檚 office a readout after the meeting.

Even so, US reluctance to go beyond verbal pressure, by threatening consequences if Israel fails to heed US advice, may stem from a belief that America鈥檚 leverage on Israel has over time in economic and political terms. In past decades, US financial support amounted to a significant chunk of Israel鈥檚 budget. Now, the US鈥檚 annual contribution is worth less than 1% of Israel鈥檚 GDP. Moreover, Israel today produces many of its most essential weapons domestically, making it less dependent on US arms sales.

In addition, Israel concluded in 1991 that it could no longer blindly rely on US protection after the United States did not come to its aid when Iraq fired Scud missiles at the Jewish state during the Gulf war. Despite remaining dependent on US vetoes in the United Nations Security Council and military cooperation, Israel worked to increase its margin of autonomy, much like Gulf states did three decades later after the United States failed to respond to Iranian-inspired attacks on their critical infrastructure in 2019 and 2020.

Israel鈥檚 campaign of targeted killings

Nevertheless, acting on seemingly accurate and up-to-the-minute detailed intelligence, Israel appears to have responded to US pressure by carrying out a series of targeted killings, including of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite militia, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Syria and a top Hamas in Beirut.

On Januar 9, Israeli forces a car in southern Lebanon carrying three Hezbollah operatives north of the narrow band along the Lebanese-Israeli border, to which hostilities with the Lebanese group have so far been contained. The attack, the second in 24 hours, occurred as Blinken Israeli military strategy with Netanyahu and members of his war cabinet.

Israel a second car, hours after the attack, close to the home of Wassim Al-Tawil, a senior Hezbollah commander together with another of the group鈥檚 fighters in a drone attack on January 8, as they traveled by car north of the band. The car was targeted as Al-Tawil was laid to rest.

鈥淲e’re targeting Hezbollah operatives, infrastructure, and systems they’ve set up to deter Israel,” newly appointed Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz.

The United States has been pushing Israel to scale back its bombing of Gaza 鈥� which has killed more than people, a majority innocent Palestinian civilians 鈥� to withdraw troops from the Strip, and focus on militant Palestinian targets.

The killings of senior Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian commanders threaten to push Iranian-supported forces to retaliate in ways that could escalate hostilities beyond Gaza and the so far narrow Israel鈥揕ebanese border band. In an indication of how hostilities could escalate, Hezbollah an Israeli air traffic control base south of the band on January 8 in retaliation for last week鈥檚 assassination in Beirut of a senior Hamas official, Salah al Arouri.

The fact that a majority of Israel鈥檚 targeted killings have been Hezbollah operatives likely has much to do with US, French and German efforts to prevent an escalation of exchanges between Israel and the Lebanese group and negotiate a definitive demarcation of the two countries鈥� borders. Hezbollah has Israeli demands to withdraw to a line north of the border beyond the Litani River. Hezbollah has also said it would agree to Lebanese government border demarcation talks only after Israel halts its assault on Gaza and accepts a permanent ceasefire.

Israel has threatened to militarily push Hezbollah back to the Litani if diplomatic efforts fail. On a visit this week to Israeli troops on the Lebanese border, Netanyahu , 鈥淚f Hezbollah chooses to start an all-out war then it will 鈥� turn Beirut and southern Lebanon, not far from here, into Gaza and Khan Younis.鈥�

The Israeli attacks on Hezbollah appear designed to force the group to choose between withdrawing and sparking an all-out war that bankrupt Lebanon cannot afford and many Lebanese do not want. Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah has that he does not seek an escalation of hostilities but that his group was prepared if Israel opted for a full-fledged conflagration.

Israel鈥檚 apparent focus on Hezbollah operatives may also be because of its inability so far to take out Hamas鈥� most senior Gaza leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, more than three months into the war.

Last week, David Barnea, the head of Mossad, Israel鈥檚 foreign intelligence service to hunt down every Hamas member involved in the group鈥檚 October 7 attack on Israel, no matter where they are. Barnea compared the manhunt to Israel鈥檚 pursuit of Palestinian Black September after it attacked the Israeli team at the 1972 Munich Olympics and killed 11 athletes.

Last month, Ronen Bar, chief of Shin Bet, Israel鈥檚 domestic security agency, Israel would hunt down Hamas in Lebanon, Turkey, and Qatar even if it took years. 鈥淭his is our Munich. We will do this everywhere, in Gaza, in the West Bank, in Lebanon, in Turkey, in Qatar. It will take a few years, but we will be there to do it,鈥� Bar said.

While Hamas has yet to retaliate for Al-Arouri鈥檚 killing, a senior official warned that it may expand the war beyond Israel and Palestine if the United States continued to support Israel. 鈥淭he West in general, and the US government in particular, need to reconsider their position because this will have consequences 鈥� If the US insists on its position, our entire nation will view it, and treat it, as an enemy 鈥� This conflict could go beyond Palestine鈥檚 borders, and expand in scope,鈥� Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri.

Mr. Abu Zuhri鈥檚 warning coincided with a by the Islamic State for lone-wolf attacks on civilian targets in Europe and the United States, including churches and synagogues.

[ first published this piece.]

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The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.