51吃瓜

My plan was to hike in the Himalayas for three weeks. But my hotel room phone rang early on my second morning in Mumbai. 鈥淢r. Carle, your car is waiting for you. And your two 鈥� guides.鈥� 鈥淲hat car?鈥� I asked. 鈥淲hat 鈥榞uides鈥�? And who are you?鈥� 鈥淵our car is downstairs, waiting.鈥� Well, I thought, there is no escaping my earlier life in the CIA. I went downstairs.

It turned out that elements close to the top of the Indian government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi were aware of my arrival and had decided to 鈥渋nvite鈥� me on a tour. Eventually, they told me that they were dissatisfied with the image the American media presented of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Modi people wanted to show me 鈥渨hat India is really like,鈥� and what the BJP government was seeking to accomplish.

They insisted that they were not intolerant, much less the fascistic, anti-Muslim nationalists some observers were describing them to be. Those were the biased criticisms of the anglicized, socialistic English-speaking Congress party elites with whom foreign journalists interact. For three weeks, they took me all over western and northern India and gave me better entr茅e to the corridors of power than most senior diplomats could ever hope to obtain. They showed me how India鈥檚 power elites, both BJP and Congress party supporters, see India, as well as what the Modi government wants for the country. 

India鈥檚 national self-image is changing

For a thousand years, India was ruled by Muslims, like the Mughals, and later by the British. Hindus were powerless subjects. But Modi鈥檚 BJP government sees India as a Hindu nation. This is the concept of Hindutva, a view of Indian society and government, first enunciated during India鈥檚 struggles for independence against the British, which has guided the BJP since 1989.

Hindutva considers the Hindu religion as the basis of Indian culture and society. This is a powerful nationalistic break from the millennium of colonial subjugation and from the first sixty years of Indian independence, in which India embraced a secular, civic nationalist identity.

The Congress-party opponents of the BJP consider this concept of Indian society and government to be a dangerous betrayal of India鈥檚 multicultural, tolerant and socialist post-colonial democracy. A majority of Hindus seem to feel empowered by Hindutva, however. Modi and the BJP consistently win substantial support at the polls and in , and Modi鈥檚 reelection in 2024 seems likely.

Hindutva strikes me as a powerful resurgence of national pride, but nationalism also can foster dangerous intolerance. Human Rights Watch that there has been an increase in protests against alleged government human rights violations since Modi鈥檚 election and that government use of violence to suppress dissent has also increased. The BJP dismisses such criticisms: 鈥淭he BJP is at least as democratic as the corrupt and totalitarian Congress party and the Gandhis,鈥� I was told repeatedly by BJP supporters. 

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India is a rising world power

One sees evidence of India鈥檚 economic dynamism everywhere. Partially finished new highways and skyscrapers loom overhead even as cows continue to sit placidly in the middle of major roads. Most educated Indians see themselves as citizens of a nascent world power. I was told repeatedly that 鈥渙ver 250 million鈥� Indians have risen from extreme poverty in recent years, the BJP supporters intimating that this was due to Modi鈥檚 economic liberalism and industrial policies. The United Nations Development Programme presents a more nuanced picture, showing a decline in poverty that, while indeed impressive, began long before the BJP came to power. 

Many Indians do feel that India鈥檚 bureaucratic sclerosis continues to slow economic development. Yet the World Bank now India 63rd in its 2023 鈥淓ase of Doing Business鈥� report, up from 140th in 2014. When I was there, I sensed a country defining itself more by a burgeoning world-class economy than by timeless squalor, pre-modern stasis and colonial bureaucracy.

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Much of India鈥檚 media expresses a simplistic, jingoistic nationalism due to pressure from the BJP according to government critics. Old ways of thought die hard, too: I heard many statements about how Russia remained a 鈥渢rustworthy friend鈥� and that the US was predatory and had sided with Pakistan for over sixty years.

These are vestigial echoes of a defensive, postcolonial, anti-Western, Congress-party-led India. The power elites with whom I met proudly highlighted India鈥檚 growing confidence as a global power. India is involving itself in the geopolitics of the and the , to set global standards for semiconductor chips, a world-class space program and its arms purchases as it develops its own arms production industry. 

Many of the foreign policy experts with whom I spoke now consider India鈥檚 top strategic priority to be counterbalancing China. India鈥檚 leadership in the 鈥淕lobal South鈥� or the non-aligned movements, participation in the BRICS organization (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and increasing involvement in Indo-Pacific military maneuvers and in US-centric organizations such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue all seek to strengthen India as a nascent, independent global peer to the US, China and Russia, but above all they seek to counterbalance China. This is why Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar of India as a 鈥渟outh-western power鈥� 鈥� part of the Global South 鈥� but with 鈥渧ery strong bonding鈥� to the West and to Western norms.

India has long sought a seat as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The UN is nearly unreformable, though, and as a result, the world鈥檚 powers will slowly create alternative arrangements to address some of the problems of global governance. The G7 grouping of the world鈥檚 richest democracies has taken on increased strategic importance following Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine. One can thus expect India to pursue, and probably achieve, G7 membership, making a 鈥淕8.鈥�

The death of Hardeep Singh Nijjar signals new audaciousness from a rising India

Nothing shows more strikingly India鈥檚 new bold and assertive attitude than the recent incident that occurred between New Delhi and Ottowa over the death of Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

Nijjar, a Canadian citizen, had been active in Sikh separatist politics. He organized an among Sikhs resident in Canada on the independence from India of a new Sikh 鈥渃ountry鈥� named Khalistan. In June, Nijjar was in British Columbia. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau the killing had been an assassination, planned by India.

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India, of course, denies having assassinated Nijjar, but for years has him as a 鈥渢errorist.鈥� India him of conspiring to organize a terrorist attack in 2018. India says that Trudeau has made his accusation in order to curry domestic political favor among Canada鈥檚 large Sikh population. It is likely, however, that Canada is telling the truth, given the diplomatic costs to Canada鈥檚 international standing of making spurious allegations about assassination and Trudeau鈥檚 explicit references to 鈥渃redible allegations鈥� collected by Canada鈥檚 intelligence agencies. The countries mutually expelled diplomat to show their anger. Relations between Canada and India have never been worse. 

More significant than the tensions between India and Canada, however, is what the assassination says about the 鈥渟tronger鈥� India of Prime Minister Modi and about the Indian intelligence service鈥檚 apparently more aggressive role in India鈥檚 foreign policies.

鈥淭hey need to understand that this is not the same India,鈥� Vineet Joshi, a senior BJP official. India now, he asserted, 鈥渋s much stronger under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi.鈥�

India鈥檚 foreign intelligence organization is the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). Its mission is the same as those of the American CIA, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, or Britain鈥檚 MI6: to collect foreign intelligence on countries of strategic interest. But the RAW, like these other organizations, also conducts 鈥渃overt actions.鈥� Traditionally, the RAW has carried out covert operations against targets, including Sikh terrorists, within or near Indian territory. These operations are reputed to have included assassinations, but Nijjar鈥檚 assassination would be the that the RAW is believed to have committed in a Western nation.

States often believe that covert actions offer them solutions to otherwise intractable problems. They believe that there will be no political cost because the actions are 鈥渃overt.鈥� The reality, however, is that most covert actions are eventually traced to the service that conducts them. When they become publicly known, they cause significant unintended negative consequences 鈥� just as we are observing with India鈥檚 likely assassination of Nijjar. 

It is too early to know whether the 鈥渂enefits鈥� of the RAW鈥檚 assassination of Nijjar 鈥� eliminating an individual threatening India鈥檚 political integrity 鈥� outweigh the damage to India鈥揅anada relations, to India鈥檚 standing and influence in the world and the possible increased hostility of India鈥檚 long-disgruntled Sikh population in consequence. Nijjar鈥檚 death, however, surely signals that India sees itself as 鈥渟tronger鈥� and freer to pursue its objectives unilaterally than at any time since Indian independence in 1947.

The event illustrates how India is now flexing the sometimes-obtuse muscles of a superpower. It also reveals a significant global expansion of the RAW鈥檚 covert actions, transgressing international and democratic norms in pursuit of what India considers vital national interests.

A newer, bolder India moves into the future

I never so much as glimpsed the Himalayas during my three weeks in India. Instead, I saw an India that will soon be the world鈥檚 third-largest economy, that is proud to now be the fourth nation to land on the Moon and that is playing a progressively large and confident role in international affairs. I saw an India that seeks influence in the 鈥淕lobal South鈥� and closer relations with the West to counterbalance China. I saw an India that is struggling to overcome its colonial and socialist bureaucratic legacy and historical hostility to the West. I saw an India that, as it recently demonstrated, is ready to pursue its perceived national interests globally in spite of the costs.

It seemed to me that the BJP, in its efforts to free India of the harmful effects of a thousand years of foreign domination and three generations of socialist torpor and crony leadership, risks alienating its non-Hindu populations and sliding into intolerant majoritarian rule and a strong-man system of government. We will have to see.

[ first published a version of this piece.]

[ edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.