51吃瓜

A recent Lebanese public opinion poll suggests there may be limits to Iran-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah鈥檚 restraint in confronting Israel. It also suggests why Iran feels emboldened by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The poll are significant with Hezbollah and Israel engaged in tit-for-tat cross-border attacks that both parties have sought to contain but could spin out of control at any moment. Hezbollah has wanted to contain the hostilities because a majority of Lebanese oppose their country becoming embroiled in a war, particularly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel could turn Beirut into another Gaza.

In the final analysis, the poll, conducted in late November and early December 2023 by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, suggested that public support for Iranian-backed militants was on the rise. The poll further indicated that the majority of Lebanese opposed to increased military engagement in support of Gaza is fragile.

Various factors could upset the apple cart. These include an unintended escalation of the border hostilities sparked by a large number of civilian casualties, repeated Israeli targeted killings on Lebanese soil of prominent Hezbollah and Hamas figures, a potential International Court of Justice ruling asserting that Israel鈥檚 military campaign in Gaza risks genocide in a case submitted by South Africa and the fallout of Netanyahu the creation of an independent Palestinian state and insisting that Israel would maintain control of territory conquered in the 1967 Middle East war.

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“This is a necessary condition, and it conflicts with the idea of [Palestinian] sovereignty. What to do? I tell this truth to our American friends, and I also stopped the attempt to impose a reality on us that would harm Israel’s security,” Netanyahu . 鈥淸In] every area that we evacuate we receive terrible terror against us. It happened in South Lebanon, in Gaza, and also in Judea and Samaria,鈥� i.e., the West Bank. 鈥淎nd therefore I clarify that in any other arrangement, in the future, the state of Israel has to control the entire area from the river to the sea,鈥� he .

Lebanese support for Hezbollah and for war is rising

The poll showed that only a slim majority of Lebanese, 53%, prioritized addressing their country鈥檚 political and economic crisis above becoming embroiled in a 鈥渇oreign war.鈥� An identical majority believed resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict required negotiations rather than a military solution. Even so, a vast majority postulated that Israeli weakness and internal divisions meant that Israel ultimately can be defeated.

At the same time, Lebanese were unanimous (99%) in wanting Arab states to break all ties to Israel because of the Gaza war.

Hezbollah is likely to take heart from significant increases in its popularity across denominations. Shia Muslims, Sunni Muslims and Christians each account for roughly one-third of Lebanon鈥檚 population.

89% of Shiites had a 鈥渧ery positive鈥� view of Hezbollah, up from 66% in 2020. The number of Sunnis who had at least a 鈥渟omewhat positive鈥� attitude towards the group jumped from 6% in 2020 to 34%. Among Christians, this number rose from 16% to 29%.

Similarly, 79% of Lebanese viewed Hamas favorably.

Netanyahu鈥檚 hardline stance

Netanyahu鈥檚 public rejection of a Palestinian state fit a long-standing pattern of Middle Eastern politics in which hardliners on both sides of various divides reinforce one another. That may be only the icing on his cake. Netanyahu did not say anything he had not suggested over the years, which puts the emphasis on the timing of the prime minister鈥檚 comments.

His reiterated rejection of a Palestinian state was designed to pacify his ultra-nationalist and ultra-conservative coalition partners as well as stymie US efforts to persuade Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic relations with Israel that emphasize a two-state solution to the Israeli鈥揚alestinian conflict.

鈥淭here is a profound opportunity for regionalization in the Middle East, in the greater Middle East, that we have not had before. The challenge is realizing it,鈥� US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week鈥檚 World Economic Forum gathering of leaders in Davos.

The United States needs regionalization for Arab buy-in to postwar arrangements in Gaza and the West Bank. This is unlikely to be forthcoming without the prospect of a credible peace process.

Speaking at the Davos forum, Israeli President Isaac Herzog relations with Saudi Arabia as a gamechanger and a key to ending the Gaza war. However, that remains a pipedream with the current Israeli government. Moreover, the problem is that a new Israeli government may not have the sharp edges of Netanyahu鈥檚 ultra-nationalists and ultra-conservatives but may be equally unwilling to make the kind of concessions required for a credible peace process.

Former Saudi intelligence chief and ambassador to the US and UK Turki al Faisal, who is believed to be close to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, appeared to that sentiment and take it a step further. 鈥淭he present leadership of Hamas, of the [Palestine Liberation Organization] and of Israel should be excluded from any participation in any future political role. They have to pay for what they have done 鈥� All of them are failures,鈥� Al Faisal told CNN鈥檚 Christiane Amanpour.

Responding to Netanyahu鈥檚 rejection, US President Joe Biden, wittingly or unwittingly, noted that a two-state solution means different things to different people. Biden a two-state solution could involve a demilitarized Palestinian state that would be more palatable for Israeli hardliners.

That has long been Israel鈥檚 often unspoken definition of the term across the country鈥檚 political spectrum, with few exceptions. Hamas鈥� October 7 attack in which people, mostly civilians, were killed reinforced this perspective. The problem is that Israeli security concerns about Palestinians are a mirror-image of Palestinian security concerns about Israel after more than half a century of occupation and the current Gaza carnage, likely making demilitarization a non-starter for Palestinians.

For his part, Netanyahu feels emboldened by Biden鈥檚 poor in an election year, Republican support for Israel and his past ability to a US president domestically in the United States.

Iran is emboldened

At the same time, Netanyahu bolstered with his comments the credibility of Iran鈥檚 opposition to Arab states normalizing relations with Israel. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei days before Hamas鈥� October 7 attack on Israel that normalization of relations with Israel amounted to “gambling” that was “doomed to failure.” He warned that countries establishing relations with the Jewish state would be “in harm’s way.”

Events since October 7 have reinforced Iran鈥檚 sense that the winds of Middle Eastern geopolitics are blowing in its favor. Israel鈥檚 conduct in the Gaza war has drawn from much of the international community, except for the United States and several European countries. A potential international court ruling would deepen the dent in Israel鈥檚 moral standing inflicted by the war. In Switzerland, prosecutors they were investigating unspecified criminal complaints against Herzog as he attended the World Economic Forum. It was unclear whether the complaint was related to his remarks at the Forum or to past remarks or actions. Herzog was also cited in South Africa鈥檚 international court case as suggesting that all Gazans were responsible for Hamas鈥� October 7 attack on Israel.

In addition, Iran鈥檚 non-state allies complicate affairs for Israel and the United States. More than three months into the war, Israel has yet to achieve its goals of destroying Hamas and liberating the remaining 139 Hamas-held hostages abducted during the October 7 fighting, including the bodies of those since killed in Gaza.

While not directly involving Iranian non-state allies, mounting in the West Bank, where Israeli raids and clashes with Palestinian fighters threaten to mushroom into an insurgency, strengthen Iran鈥檚 hardline position. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, backed by Iran, has 100,000 Israelis to evacuate northern Israel and has tied down a substantial number of Israeli forces along the border.

Simultaneously, Iran-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen have the United States in a catch-22 with attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.

Finally, Iranian missile strikes earlier in January in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan reflect Iran鈥檚 sense of having the upper hand rather than an intention to escalate regional tensions. They signal Iran鈥檚 willingness to defend itself, even if it does not want to see Gaza escalate into a regional conflagration. The strikes were in response to attacks on Iranian targets, including Islamic State in the city of Kerman that killed 94 people, the in Syria of a senior Revolutionary Guard commander and an on an Iranian police station by a Pakistan-based jihadist group.

Overall, the different hot spots suggest that hardliners are calling the shots for now.

Without a halt to the fighting in Gaza, containing the various flashpoints and preventing them from spinning out of control increasingly is becoming mission impossible.

US foreign policy scholar Christopher S Chivvis: 鈥淚n a situation where emotions are running high thanks to the appalling violence in Gaza, with hawks in Washington eager to dole out hellfire and brimstone on Tehran, and the global economy at stake, it will be even harder to exercise restraint and avoid a broader regional war 鈥� the worst-case outcome for American interests.鈥�

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The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.