51吃瓜

It鈥檚 an ocean of conflict and ecological decline. Despite its vast size 鈥� square miles 鈥� the South China Sea has become a microcosm of the geopolitical tensions between East and West, where territorial struggles over abundant natural resources may one day lead to environmental collapse.

While the threat of a devastating military conflict between China and the United States in the region still looms, the South China Sea has already experienced irreparable damage. Decades of over-harvesting have, for instance, had a disastrous impact on that sea鈥檚 once-flourishing fish. The tuna, mackerel, and shark populations have fallen to of their 1960s levels. Biologically critical coral reef atolls are already struggling to survive rising ocean . Now, they are also being buried under sand and silt as the Chinese military to and builds on the disputed Spratly Islands, an archipelago of 14 small isles and 113 reefs. Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam have also laid claim to many of the same islands.

Perhaps no one should be surprised, since oil and gas deposits are plentiful in the South China Sea. The US government that 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas are ready to be extracted from its floor. Such fossil-fuel reserves, , are helping to 鈥� yes, how can anyone not use the word? 鈥� fuel the turmoil increasingly engulfing the region.

This year, the Washington-based Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative that several countries are pursuing new oil and gas development projects in those contested waters. The organization notes that these waters could become a 鈥渇lashpoint in the disputes.鈥� Between 2018 and 2021, there were numerous standoffs between China, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries over drilling operations there. Fears are building that even more severe confrontations lie ahead.

The United States, of course, for all of this on China, claiming its aggressive island-reclamation projects violate international law and 鈥渕ilitarize an already tense and contested area.鈥� Yet the US is also playing a significant part in raising tensions in the region by agreeing to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines as part of its Australia-United Kingdom-United States () security pact.

The goal, no doubt, is to restrain Chinese activity with the threat of Western military might. 鈥淣ext steps could include basing US nuclear-capable platforms 鈥� such as strategic bombers 鈥� in Australia as well as cooperation on hypersonic missiles, cyber operations [and] quantum computing,鈥� Derek Grossman for the Rand Corporation, the 鈥溾�� of American defense policy. In fact, the US is evidently the first nuclear-capable B-52s to that country soon.

On August 25th, in partnership with Australia and the Philippines (where Washington is to occupy bases ever closer to China), US Marines retaking an 鈥渋sland鈥� supposedly captured by hostile forces. In that exercise,1,760 Australian and Filipino soldiers and 120 US Marines conducted mock beach landings and air assault maneuvers in Rizal, a small town in western Palawan province in the Philippines, which does indeed face the South China Sea.

鈥淎 whole lot of damage can be done to Australia before any potential adversary sets foot on our shores, and maintaining the rules-based order in Southeast Asia, maintaining the collective security of Southeast Asia, is fundamental to maintaining the national security of our country,鈥� said Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles of the joint military drills.

Like AUKUS itself, those war games were intended to send a message: China beware. The resources of the South China Sea aren鈥檛 for the taking.

It鈥檚 not just about energy

But here鈥檚 a question to consider: Is all this international saber-rattling only about fossil fuels?

Well-used shipping routes through the area are vital to the Chinese economy andt o the flow of goods globally. Further, the South China Sea鈥檚 fisheries account for of the reported global wild fish catch. Yet trade nor fisheries fully explain the ever-heightening controversy over the region.

Having that sea鈥檚 wild fisheries for decades, China is now becoming a global leader in fish farming, which already accounts for , Fossil fuels are also gradually being phased out. But is it possible that another set of natural resources, arguably more crucial to the economic future of the global superpowers, could be adding to the growing territorial furor over who possesses the goods in the South China Sea?

The answer is mining. You could call it a race to the bottom, with China leading the pack. In December 2022, China unveiled the , a deep sea mining vessel, the size of a battle cruiser, set to be operational by 2024. Instead of weaponry, the ship is equipped with advanced excavation equipment capable of drilling at depths of 32,000 feet.

On land, the Chinese already hold a virtual monopoly on metals considered vital to 鈥済reen鈥� energy development, including cobalt, copper and lithium. Currently, the Chinese control of such 鈥済reen鈥� metals and are now eyeing the abundant resources that exist beneath the ocean鈥檚 floor as well. By some estimates, that seabed could contain than those below dry ground.

It鈥檚 difficult to believe that devastating the ocean鈥檚 depths in search of minerals for electric batteries and other technologies would offer a sustainable way to fend off climate change. In the process, after all, such undersea mining is likely to have a catastrophic impact, including the destruction of . Right now, it鈥檚 impossible to gauge just what sort of damage will be inflicted by the operations, since deep-sea mining is exempt from environmental impact assessments. (How convenient for those who will argue about how crucial they will be to producing a greener, more sustainable future.)

The UN鈥檚 High Seas Treaty, ratified in March 2023, failed to include environmental rules regulating such practices after China any discussion of a possible moratorium on seabed harvesting. As of 2022, China holds , issued by the UN鈥檚 International Seabed Authority (ISA), which allow the Chinese to conduct tests and sample contents on the ocean floor. While the UN body can divvy up such contracts, they have no power to regulate the industry itself, nor the personnel to do so. This has scientists worried that unfettered deep-sea mining could cause irreparable damage, including killing sea creatures and destroying delicate habitats.

鈥淲e鈥檝e only scratched the surface of understanding the deep ocean,鈥� said Dr. Andrew Chin, a scientific adviser to the Australian-based Save Our Seas Foundation.

Science is just starting to appreciate that the deep sea is not an empty void but is brimming with wonderful and unique life forms. Deep sea ecosystems form an interconnected realm with mid and surface waters through the movement of species, energy flows, and currents. Not only will the nodule mining result in the loss of these species and damage deep sea beds for thousands of years, it will potentially result in negative consequences for the rest of the ocean and the people who depend on its health.

Others are concerned that the ISA, even if it had the authority to regulate the budding industry, wouldn鈥檛 do it all that well. 鈥淣ot only does the ISA favor the interests of mining companies over the advice of scientists, but its processes for EIA [environmental impact assessment] approvals are questionable,鈥� says Dr. Helen Rosenbaum of the .

This brings us back to the South China Sea, which, to Chinese researchers, holds of 鈥渟trategically important鈥� precious metals. China has already been fervently scouting for deposits of the that hold a number of metals used in virtually all green technologies.

鈥淟earning the distribution of polymetallic nodules will help us to choose a site for experimenting with collection, which is one of the main goals of the mission,鈥� Wu Changbin, general commander of the Jiaolong, a submarine that discovered just such polymetallic nodules in the South China Sea.

Unsurprisingly, the US, lagging behind China in acquiring minerals for green technologies, has been keeping close tabs on the competition. In 2017, a Navy P3-Orion spy plane of a Chinese research vessel near the island of Guam. Scientists on the ship were allegedly and planting monitoring devices for future deep-sea exploration.

The story is much the same in the South China Sea, where the US has conducted numerous surveillance operations to follow Chinese activities there. In May, an Air Force RC-135 surveillance plane was by a Chinese J-16 jet fighter, causing an international uproar. Without providing any justification for why a US spy plane was there in the first place, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken quickly pointed the finger at China鈥檚 recklessness. The 鈥淐hinese pilot took dangerous action in approaching the plane very, very closely,鈥� Blinken. 鈥淭here have been a series of these actions directed not just at us, but in other countries in recent months.鈥�

While these quarrels no doubt have much to do with control over fossil fuels, oil and natural gas aren鈥檛 the only resources in the region that are vital to the forthcoming exploits of both countries.

Capitalism and the climate

Across the globe, oil and coal are increasingly becoming things of the past. A report released in June 2023 by the International Energy Agency that renewables were 鈥渟et to soar by 107 gigawatts (GW), the largest absolute increase ever, to more than 440 GW in 2023.鈥� The natural resources supplying this global surge in renewables, like copper and lithium, are becoming the popular new version of fossil fuels. Markets are favoring the phase-out of climate-warming energy sources. That鈥檚 why China and the United States are forging ahead with mining critical minerals for renewables 鈥� not because they care about the future of the planet, but because green energy is becoming profitable.

China鈥檚 foray into the global capitalist system and the ruins left in its wake are easy enough to track. In the late 1970s, China鈥檚 leaders the country鈥檚 markets and opened the floodgates on foreign investment, making China 鈥�  at an average clip of per year 鈥� one of the fastest-growing economies ever. The World Bank China鈥檚 financial boom as 鈥渢he fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history.鈥� It鈥檚 no surprise, then, that energy consumption exploded along with its economic gains.

Like many of its global competitors, China鈥檚 economy still relies heavily on carbon-intensive fossil fuels, especially coal, but an ever-growing portion of its energy portfolio is made up of renewable energy. China鈥檚 mammoth manufacturing industry makes up the greater part of its energy demand. Coal is indeed still fueling that economic engine in a major way 鈥� China than the rest of the world combined 鈥� but the country has also become a (if not the) world leader in renewables, investing an estimated $545 billion in new technologies in 2022 alone.

While China uses more energy than any other country, Americans significantly more than two times that of the Chinese on an individual basis (73,677 kilowatt-hours versus 28,072 as of 2023). And while the US uses more energy per person, it also gets less of its energy from renewables.

As of 2022, the US government estimated that only 13.1% of the country鈥檚 primary energy was produced through . Even so, the energy transition in the US is happening and, while natural gas has largely replaced coal, renewables are making . Aiding this, the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Biden in early 2022, earmarked in government investment and tax credits for green-energy development.

The World Economic Forum that three billion tons of metals and fine minerals will be needed for the world鈥檚 energy transition if we are to reach zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 鈥� and that number will undoubtedly only grow in the decades ahead. Of course, investors love to cash in, and the forthcoming explosion in the mining of green metals on land and in the world鈥檚 waters will surely be a windfall for Wall Street and its equivalents globally. BloombergNEF (BNEF), which covers global markets, that the demand for key metals and minerals for the energy transition will grow at least fivefold over the next 30 years, representing something like a $10 trillion opportunity. At stake is the mining of critical minerals like lithium and traditional metals like copper, which will be used in power generation, electrical grids, energy storage, and transportation.

鈥淭he energy transition could lead to a super-cycle for the metals and mining industry,鈥� says Yuchen Huo, a mining analyst for BNEF. 鈥淭his cycle will be driven by massive expansions in clean energy technologies, which would spur demand growth for both critical minerals and traditional metals.鈥�

It should be no surprise, then, that countries like China and the United States are likely to battle (perhaps all too literally) over access to the finite natural resources vital to the world鈥檚 energy transition. Capitalism depends on it. From Africa to the South China Sea, nations are scouring the globe for new, profitable energy ventures. In the Pacific Ocean, which covers 30% of the Earth鈥檚 surface, the hunt for polymetallic nodules is prompting island governments to open their waters to excavation in a significant way. The Cook Islands has typically to explore its nearby ocean鈥檚 depths. Kiribati, Nauru and Tonga have funded missions to investigate deposits in the Clarion Clipperton Zone, a 1.7 million-square-mile area stretching between the island of Kiribati and Mexico.

This deep sea 鈥渆xploration frenzy is occurring in the absence of regulatory regimes or conservation areas to protect the unique and little-known ecosystems of the deep sea,鈥� Dr. Rosenbaum of the Deep-Sea Mining Campaign. 鈥淭he health and environmental impacts of deep-sea mining will be widespread 鈥� The sea is a dynamic and interconnected environment. The impacts of even a single mine will not be contained to the deep sea.鈥�

According to those who want to mine our way out of the climate crisis, such highly sought-after metals and minerals will remain crucial to weaning the world off dirty fossil fuels. But count on one thing: they will come at a grave cost 鈥� not only geopolitically but environmentally, too. Perhaps nowhere will such impacts be felt more devastatingly than in the world鈥檚 fragile seas, including the South China Sea where major armed powers are already facing off in an unnerving fashion. The toll both on those waters and on the rest of us is still to be discovered.

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The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.