A newly-edited by one of the greatest Peruvian historians gives clues as to the future. Jorge Basadre’s intriguing “Risk in History and Its Limits” was first published in 1971 and examines the role of chance in history. Basadre magisterially applies this theme to Peruvian independence. He was fully aware of the latest developments in game theory and anticipated the power of computers to apply this theory. This great thinker is honored today with his portrait on 100 soles banknotes.

Will Peru’s Institutions Withstand the Corruption Test?

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Inspired by Basadre, there are five scenarios that could unfold once the election authorities proclaim the winner. Although scenario analysis and game theory are distinct concepts, scenarios allow for a simulation of the role of chance in history and in determining the future. The Peruvian case is an exciting starting point for such analysis because the country is deeply divided and each candidate appeals only to a small minority of the population.

The Two Candidates

Keiko Fujimori is the daughter of the former authoritarian president Alberto Fujimori. He is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for human rights abuses committed during his tenure. The former president inherited a bloody insurgency led by two terrorist groups. The larger group, the Shining Path, espoused Maoist ideals similar to Cambodia’s infamous Khmer Rouge. The other group was the Marxist-Leninist Túpac Amaru Revolutionary Movement. Both were most active in the 1980s and early 1990s. Alberto Fujimori is credited with crushing them.

Keiko Fujimori still attracts public support because many Peruvians continue to be grateful to her father for navigating the country out of what seemed to be an intractable crisis. Along with the insurgency, Peru suffered chronic hyperinflation. The authoritarian elder Fujimori ended both insurgency and inflation. In the current election, his daughter won 13.41% of the vote in the first round, reaching the final round in the presidential election for the third time.

Keiko Fujimori the 2016 presidential election to a liberal candidate by a mere 41,000 votes even though her party won an absolute majority in the congressional election. Her deep unpopularity among a large number of Peruvians probably explains why she lost while her party won. The divided mandate — with Fujimori’s party dominant in congress and the presidency in her rival’s hands — was a recipe for disaster.

Following the 2016 election, the country went into a political . New congressional elections and constitutional changes followed. Within one presidential term, four presidents have come and gone. The constitutional changes backfired spectacularly. Members of congress are no longer allowed to stand for reelection. This was supposed to make them more honest. Instead, they treat their one term as the only chance to extract their pound of flesh. Almost invariably, Peruvian members of congress have furthered their own personal interests over the interests of society. Naturally, voters are tired of the current political situation with its unresolved tensions between regions and classes. This benefited Fujimori’s unlikely political rival who could cast himself as an outsider.

is a rural school teacher and union leader. His parents were illiterate peasants; he is the third of their nine children. Castillo comes from one of the poorest regions of the country. As a relatively unknown presidential candidate, he remained under the radar of the mainstream press during the first round of elections. With 20 candidates competing to get into the second round, Castillo won a surprising 18.92% of the vote. His victory caught the Lima elites by surprise.

In Peru, political parties largely center around their founders. Castillo’s party, Perú Libre, revolves around Wladimir Cerron, who used to be the governor of a region in the Andean part of the country. Cerron draws inspiration from Cuba’s Fidel Castro and Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. He is believed to support surviving members of the Shining Path. Two former members of the Maoist terrorist organization will now take their seats in congress for Perú Libre.

Cerron shares legal troubles relating to corruption and campaign finance with the Fujimori family. Whereas Fujimori herself is still awaiting trial, Cerron has already been sentenced to four years and eight months. He is currently out on parole.

A Mess That Keeps Getting Messier

Even though the vote was held over a month ago, the election authorities are yet to declare an official winner. Fujimori has challenged the election outcome. She claims irregularities in the voting districts in the Andean region where she is extremely unpopular. The independent election authorities have rejected most of the challenges, some on entirely technical grounds. According to law, challenges must be lodged within three days of the election. The polls closed at 8.00 pm on July 6. Fujimori filed some of her challenges after 8.00 pm but before midnight on July 9.

To her supporters, the extra four hours do not matter because July 9 was still the third day after the election. The election authorities are mindful of this perception and perhaps this contributes to why they have yet to proclaim a winner. However, we can safely assume that Castillo will be proclaimed president-elect before July 28. That day marks 200 years of Peru’s independence and is the day the constitution provides for the swearing-in of a new president.

Even though Castillo is highly likely to take charge, wild speculation dominates both the news and social media. He has frequently made contradictory remarks about his future plans. His erratic comments and improvisational team-building have made many nervous. Tensions are rising while confidence in the economy is falling. Just three months after Castillo won the first round, Peru’s foreign exchange reserves have by 11%. They have largely been spent to prop up the country’s falling currency that has fallen by 8.4% against a weak dollar despite the measures. 

Capital is also . Even before the second round of elections, the business elite was “looking to get money out of the country.” Reportedly, $13 billion in bank deposits have left Peruvian shores in the last few months. Castillo’s plans to nationalize or heavily tax major industries such as mining, oil and gas have caused tremors among investors and the business community. The Andean leader has continued to call for a constitutional convention despite a majority in congress or among voters who oppose such an elaborate and expensive exercise. 

Castillo’s call for a new constitution has fueled economic anxiety. There is a fear that the rules of the game could change and Peru might retreat from a market economy. This could create massive problems for the country. Previous administrations have signed trade agreements and international treaties that commit Peru to certain market-friendly policies. Castillo’s incoming administration does not have as much leeway as it imagines, and ideological policies could have costly consequences for the economy.

Ironically, Peru’s economy was recovering from the COVID-19 crisis faster than those of neighboring countries. Rising commodity prices would have given the new government more money to redistribute to the rural and Andean areas that historically lag behind Lima and other coastal cities. Instead, a close election in a fragmented society has exacerbated a protracted ongoing crisis. There are five scenarios that could play out at this point in time. Let us go through each of them.

Scenario 1: Cooperation

The government and the people they govern could come together to address the main problems affecting the country. These include ramping up the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, improving Peru’s ailing health care and public education systems, creating employment for the millions who lost their jobs due to lockdowns, increasing prosperity in poor areas practicing subsistence agriculture, building more infrastructure and improving resilience against climate change. 

Under this scenario, Castillo would successfully earn the confidence of the majority of congress. Instead of drafting a new constitution, members of congress would agree on amendments to improve governance.

Although this would be an optimal scenario, it is unlikely to unfold. Peru’s new congress of 130 deputies is splintered among 10 parties. Three of them, commanding 44 seats, represent the right and the far right. Of these, 24 belong to Fujimori´s Fuerza Popular. Parties of the left hold 42 seats, with 37 from Peru Libre, the party of Castillo and Cerron. The remaining 44 seats are held by centrist parties. It is difficult to predict whom they’ll support. Some might back the government in exchange for favors for their regions or for themselves. Others might ally with the right-wing opposition, which is expected to ferociously oppose what they view as Castillo’s socialist experiments.

Scenario 2: Military Coup

The military could take over. Some have already appealed to the army to act against a Castillo government. Some of the 44 right-wing congress members might support such a coup. This scenario is also unlikely for now. Perú’s institutions are still strong enough to follow a constitutional process.

The military has not been in power since 1980. By then, the armed forces were divided between their own left-wing and right-wing camps. The left had seized power in 1968 in hope of doing many of the things now proposed by Cerron and Castillo. The right took over in 1975 in response to the macroeconomic consequences of leftist policies instituted from 1968.

Between 1990 and 2000, the military supported the elder Fujimori. The army liked his strong, authoritarian leadership at a time of hyperinflation and insurgency. In the latter part of the 20^th century, right-wing military coups typically took place when a country entered a political deadlock. Almost invariably, institutions failed, the government stopped functioning, the economy collapsed and violence increased, leading to a military takeover.

Peru has just had an election. A winner has emerged. A military coup — or even a civilian one supported by the military — would not fly. Only if Castillo and congress repeatedly fail to find a way to work together, govern the country and manage the economy, the military would risk an intervention.

Scenario 3: Hegemony Via a New Constitution

CerrĂłn and Castillo could circumvent congress, appeal directly to the people and change the constitution. Such a scenario would give them unbridled power. Peru would emulate the Ecuador of Rafael Correa, who managed to grab absolute power despite lacking a majority in congress by ushering in a new constitution.

Correa came to power in 2007 as part of the so-called Latin American pink tide, a term that refers to the election of left-wing governments in the region. He allied Ecuador with Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela and hoped to install a 21^st-century style of socialism. Correa boosted agricultural subsidies, increased minimum wage and sought to improve the standard of living by raising spending on social programs, especially health care and education.

Castillo is not as popular as Correa. Peru is highly fragmented. He got under 20% in the first round and has barely squeaked through in the second. A third of the voters want a new constitution, another third support some amendments to improve governance and the remaining third oppose any change. Therefore, the hegemony of the left is possible but improbable.

Scenario 4: Hegemony Through Weakening of Institutions

Cerron and his hardcore comrades could make a grab for power with or without Castillo’s support. First, they would appoint loyalists as employees of the state. Friendly prosecutors and judges as well as aligned teachers and generals would infiltrate different arms of the Peruvian state. With the help of loyalists in key positions, the left wing could circumvent congress and bend the constitution. , Nicaragua and are already experiencing this phenomenon.

Peru has huge mineral reserves and access to some wealth. Left-wing countries such as Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua and Bolivia in need of financial support could bolster their ideological counterparts in Peru. Even the likes of Argentina and Surinam could turn to Peru for help. Peru could emerge as the new version of Chavez’s Venezuela. As with the Chavismo experiment, such a scenario would eventually end badly. Peru’s previous left-wing experiments have all failed. 

Scenario 5: Impasse and Chaos

Castillo and the right-wing members of congress could clash bitterly. The latter are likely to oppose the new government with all the means at their disposal. Peru’s right-wing media is likely to create a narrative of scandals.

Peru’s present constitution has weaknesses pertaining to governance. It gives the president and congress ample opportunities to act against each other. The president could dissolve congress, which in turn could impeach the president. In fact, a supermajority could impeach the president in a single afternoon. Sadly, such bitter polarization is the most likely scenario. It could unleash chaos in Peru. Governance could fail and the country’s long-standing problems would continue to fester.

It is important to note that four of the five scenarios are not in the interest of Peru. Yet such scenarios dominate because its democracy is immature. Voting is compulsory. Those who do not vote are penalized. Yet the country demonstrates that elections and voting by themselves do not lead to a functioning democracy.

Elected representatives have to learn to work together in the public interest. Putting private interest or ideological pursuits over public benefit invariably leads to disaster. Like voters in many other fraught democracies, Peruvians tend to opt for el mal menor, the lesser evil. It is increasingly unclear if such a choice even exists. A fragmented country desperately needs its politicians to end a savage knife fight and work toward a better future.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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Peru is one of Latin America’s most dynamic economies, being a founding member of the regional Pacific Alliance, as well as a member of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Andean Community. Likewise, Peru has numerous free trade agreements, including with the , the European Union and China. However, as the country has continued to develop in recent years, its political scene has been rocked by a series of corruption scandals and investigations against former presidents and other prominent political figures.

The largest of these investigations is the transnational Odebrecht scandal, which centers on systematic bribing mechanisms utilized by a Brazilian construction conglomerate. Because of the nature of these investigations, Peru’s judicial and constitutional establishments are being tested and stressed to an unprecedented level.

Systematic bribery, money laundering and embezzlement are some of the charges that Peruvian law enforcement is currently pursuing. As a part of these investigations, it has become evident that corruption has permeated almost all governmental and political sectors of Peru, at least since the infrastructure development boom that began in the early 2000s. After a period of economic contraction during the late 1990s, Peru became an attractive investment and business destination in South America given its controlled inflation, business friendly environment, bustling tourism industry and wealth of natural resources. This economic bonanza led to major government-financed infrastructure projects that easily lent themselves to illegal financial activities.

Is Anyone Spared?

The infrastructure development and foreign investment frenzy that has taken over Peru in recent decades is the genesis of the corruption schemes currently engulfing the country.

Keiko Fujimori — a presidential candidate in the 2011 and 2016 elections, notorious leader of the opposition and the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori — is facing allegations for illicit funding of her campaigns. She is currently being held in  while a money laundering investigation is underway.

Alejandro Toledo, Peru’s first indigenous president and the first democratically elected president after the Fujimori dictatorship, served between 2001 and 2006 representing his own political party, Peru Posible. Toward the end of Toledo’s presidency, Peru began a historic process , when the former dictator was .

Nevertheless, in recent years, it has been who has been the from the United States back to Peru. According to the , Toledo “is in the United States fighting extradition back to Perú where he faces charges of taking $20 million in bribes from Odebrecht.” Toledo  these charges and denounces them as . Before the  were made, Toledo was a visiting researcher at Stanford University, his alma mater, but currently his precise whereabouts remain .

Meanwhile, former President Alan Garcia, who served two terms (1985-1990, and 2006-2011), representing the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance party, was recently denied asylum by the Uruguayan government. Garcia claims that the ongoing investigation into a bribing scheme as part of the bidding process for Lima’s first metro is a political witch hunt against him. Thus, he filed his request for asylum after Peru’s judicial authorities barred him from leaving the country for 18 months. As of right now, Garcia has had to appear twice before prosecutors and seems to be prepared to cooperate, as public opinion continues to build against him.

President Ollanta Humala (in office between 2011 and 2016), a military officer who also ran as head of the Peruvian Nationalist Party, was under arrest for several months in 2017 and 2018 pending a trial centered around the laundering of bribes and other payments from Odebrecht to his 2006 and 2011 presidential campaigns. In fact, the election that led to Humala’s victory was one of Peru’s most contentious, and a second round was needed to determine the victor from a field that included Alejandro Toledo, Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. Humala was conditionally released in April 2018 after a ruling by Peru’s constitutional court pending the results of further judicial inquiry. However, Humala’s wife, Nadine Heredia, is also under investigation and has already served time in jail.

Lastly, Kuczynski — a former prime minister in the Toledo government who made it to the presidency in 2016 under the Peruvians for Change party banner — was forced to resign from office less than two years into his tenure. PPK, as he is also known, also faces scrutiny surrounding corruption, following his controversial decision to former Peruvian dictator Alberto Fujimori in an attempt to bolster his own support with opposition parties. Fujimori was serving a 25-year sentence for crimes against humanity committed during his presidency between 1990 and 2000. Currently, Fujimori is in a clinic due to his deteriorating health, but he still faces judicial procedures.

In March 2018, Kuczynski resigned right before a second impeachment procedure against him was set to begin. Following the resignation, Vice President Martin Vizcarra was sworn in as Peru’s head of state. Since then, President Vizcarra oversaw a national anti-corruption referendum that took place last December against the backdrop of growing public indignation, and he should continue to champion an as the focal theme of his presidency. As a political outsider and with all of his predecessors in judicial binds, Vizcarra finds himself in a difficult position both domestically and regionally. Nevertheless, what is most revealing and encouraging about this series of events is that Peru’s civil society has surprised the region with its ability and desire to both organize itself and press for accountability for its political leaders.

Despite the deep blows that this series of scandals is inflicting upon Peru’s political establishment and government institutions, the country is leading the way in terms of the regional fight against impunity and graft. The unfolding corruption scandal, which involves many of the country’s main political actors, has fortunately not hampered Peru’s economy, and preserving this dynamism should be President Vizcarra’s main objective.

The Establishment Strikes Back

In recent weeks, Peru’s former attorney general, , came under intense public scrutiny while serving as head of the entity responsible for the investigations against the former presidents. On January 2, Chavarry had to walk back his decision to fire the two prosecutors leading the Odebrecht corruption investigation and restituted both of them to their positions just as President Vizcarra was preparing to intervene. All of this occurred after large public demonstrations and mounting pressure from political leaders following Chavarry’s original dismissal that seemed aimed at protecting some of the disgraced political class from further scrutiny. On January 8, Chavarry was forced to step down as attorney general.

All these investigations, both in Peru and internationally, originated with the infamous Lava Jato (Operation Car Wash) case undertaken in Brazil against the largest corruption network in Latin America’s modern history. While the last two years have been historic in shaping Peru’s political future, the question remains as to whether the country’s — as well as the region’s — judicial institutions can step up during this crucial window of opportunity for transformative change.

While it is presidents who make international headlines, Latin America’s battle against corruption needs to tackle the entire political system, from ministers and congress members to mayors and business leaders. Aware of this reality, President Vizcarra is seeking to enact transformative change in Peru by utilizing the country’s momentum to approve legislation that will strengthen transparency and accountability. In spite of his party’s minority status in congress, Vizcarra should leverage his unique position and its unusual context to secure a legacy as Peru’s turning point against corruption.

*[This article has been updated to clarify Alejandro Toledo’s legal status and include his rejection of the accusations against him as being politically motivated. Updated on 01/18/2019.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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Numerous countries and regions across the globe are experiencing the consequences of mass migration waves due to violent conflicts, food insecurity, climate change and economic crisis. More specifically, countries like Syria and Venezuela are remarkable examples of migratory crises currently unfolding on both sides of the Atlantic. Just as remarkable, however, has been the struggle faced by neighboring governments in dealing with the effects that the refugee influx has had on the domestic political landscape of the destination countries.

Over the last five years, an estimated have fled their country in what has now become South America’s largest migratory crisis in the modern era. Domestically, Venezuela is suffering from a between August 2017 and August 2018, rendering the local currency, the bolivar, effectively worthless. Additionally, massive food shortages due to issues with the commercial supply chain and foreign exchange have led to what is referred to as the “,” by which the average person living in Venezuela has lost approximately 20 pounds in weight over the last few years. Therefore, scores of desperate Venezuelans decide to undertake a days-long journey, in many cases by foot, leaving behind their country in search of the most basic necessities like food and medicine.

Venezuelans have been departing their country for almost two decades now. The first wave of emigration consisted of the country’s elite, who started leaving Venezuela when the leftist President Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999 and changed the constitution. The second wave, which expanded to include larger sectors of the country’s middle class and cultural sector, came in 2006, when Chavez was re-elected for a third term. Then, the migratory wave of recent years was set off after the passing of Chavez in 2013, the following ascension of Nicolás Maduro to the country’s presidency and the dramatic decrease in international oil prices — oil being the backbone of Venezuela’s economy.

While those who left because of Chavez were mostly members of the country’s aristocracy and business elite, the resounding failure of the so-called under the leadership of President Maduro has forced working-class Venezuelans to flee in the most dramatic of circumstances. The fact that working and middle-class families are walking from all corners of Venezuela toward the Colombian and Brazilian borders, mainly to the international bridges that connect with the city of Cúcuta, is particularly important because these social groups previously formed the bedrock of the Chavista movement.

Tragically, the government that they once supported turns its back on them today, and it is up to international institutions — such as the International Organization for Migration, the Organization of American States, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the UN Refugee Agency — to record their stories and provide them with assistance. No official aid or information has been given by the Venezuelan government despite thousands of frontier crossings being reported every day.

Good Neighbors

Over the last several years, the brunt of the Venezuelan crisis has fallen on the shoulders of neighboring Colombia. Nevertheless, this issue affects most countries throughout the Western Hemisphere, including Brazil, Ecuador, Chile and Peru.

Colombia — the frontline of the Venezuelan migrant crisis given the 2,341 kilometers of shared border between the two countries — has welcomed approximately from its struggling neighbor in recent years. However, Colombia’s open arms policy, which has included the issuing of special humanitarian visas and work permits, has substantially transformed the social landscape of major cities such as Cúcuta, Bucaramanga, Cali, Medellín and the capital Bogotá. The sudden introduction of a million economic migrants into Colombia has led to a spike in informal work, has depressed wages in major cities, stressed the country’s health-care system and has unfortunately led to an increase in criminal activities such as petty theft, human trafficking, smuggling and underage prostitution.

Certainly, many Venezuelan migrants choose to stay in Colombia, because they have family in these countries. They expect that they will be able to return home soon and often don’t have the resources to go any further, finding comfort in the cultural similarities shared by all four countries. For instance, Peru is currently estimated to be hosting , while Ecuador has taken in amongst its population of just 15 million.

Nevertheless, many refugees seek to continue on to other destinations, such as Chile, Mexico, Brazil, Panama, the United States or even Europe. Responding to this reality, many of the affected countries have restricted the entry of Venezuelans into their territory. Brazil’s government, for instance, has reinforced its border controls and frontier security. Panama, Peru and Ecuador have also tightened their border security and have that enter the country illegally. Meanwhile, important public figures in the region and the world, such as Pope Francis, have exhorted churches, civil society and charitable organizations to aid migrants and refugees, particularly those suffering from severe malnutrition and chronic illnesses.

In recent weeks, with the accession of Ivan Duque to Colombia’s presidency, the rhetoric against Caracas has become increasingly assertive. Political leaders throughout the region, from Argentina’s President Macri to Ecuador’s President Moreno, have intensified the international campaign to relocate the region’s refugees according to the capacities of each country and condemn the systematic violation of human rights in Venezuela. Simultaneously, in a burden-sharing effort, most of the countries have agreed to grant special visas and work permits to those Venezuelans who have legally settled within their territory.

Sharing the Burden

The economic and social stress that has been set off by the amount of Venezuelan migrants currently working below the minimum wage throughout Colombia’s and Peru’s labor market is unsustainable. Therefore, working groups have been organized through multilateral institutions, such as the Andean Community and the OAS, specifically to discuss burden sharing when it comes to aiding Venezuelan refugees and migrants. Thus far, the has made some progress on this issue as countries negotiate quotas of how many of the millions Venezuelan migrants they are willing to welcome into their country. If the exodus continues, the staggering amount of Venezuelan refugees spread throughout the Western Hemisphere could the total of 6 million that have fled from war in Syria.

Unfortunately, the magnitude of the Venezuelan migrant wave has even led to small outbreaks of xenophobia in some parts of Colombia, Peru and Ecuador. However, leading figures in the region do not hesitate to remind Colombians, Peruvians and Ecuadorians that not too long ago, it was them who fled to oil-rich Venezuela in search of better opportunities. At this moment, the future of Venezuela remains uncertain and, at least for now, countries throughout the region have maintained an open doors policy toward migrants. Nevertheless, at the current pace of migration, the impatience of politicians in the region might lead some of them to close borders.

Meanwhile, in Venezuela, the Maduro regime is in denial and looks the other way as the amount of abandoned houses and apartments throughout major cities has skyrocketed due to migration and hyperinflation. The administration has also denied the veracity of the dramatic footage recorded by journalists of thousands of migrants crossing the frontier. President Maduro is so tone-deaf to this reality and defiant of international pressure that he was recently shown cooked by a celebrity chef during a stop-over in Turkey, the video unleashing immediate condemnation across the world.

Yet in spite of his incompetent and authoritative leadership, Maduro has proven to be extremely resilient. He has managed to co-opt the national military through a web of corruption and drug trafficking, has played on the weaknesses of a divided political opposition, and has maintained political ties with countries like China, Russia and Turkey. Outside of Venezuela, the exiled opposition struggles to present a unified front, with negotiations breaking down on several occasions. And no one seems to truly want a foreign military intervention — at least for the time being.

*[Updated: October 16, 2018, at 22:00 GMT.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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Gold mining now leads as Peru’s main source of illegal income, surpassing even the cocaine trade. This surge has made Peru the leading producer of gold in Latin America and the , with 5% of global market share. Some 15% of Peru’s total gold exports are illegal, leaving the miners’ profits at approximately $1.8 billion annually.

But this lucrative business inevitably brings with it a dark side. For every kilogram of gold illegally exported from the country, dozens of children suffer abuse in the flourishing sex trade that caters to the industry.

Puerto Maldonado is one of Peru’s infamous human-trafficking spots where the operations are, in the words of District Attorney Luis Alberto Sanchez, secluded and hidden away. Imposition of regulatory measures, such as vigorous ID checks, drove the trafficking trade out to the La Pampa area, bringing along rape, contract killing and extortion.

There were 2,241 reported cases of human trafficking between 2009 and 2014, and 889 in 2015 alone. Over 40% of human trafficking cases involved sexual exploitation, with over 50% of victims being under the age of 17.

Not only has illegal gold mining been detrimental to the people of Peru, but their land is being destroyed as well. Over 150,000 hectares (370,000 acres) of rainforest terrain have been demolished due to mining.

While many participate in attempting to increase public awareness of human trafficking, Peru’s funds are minimal. Posited against a multi-million dollar industry that benefits from sex trafficking, this battle is an uphill one.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

Photo Credit: tonyoquias

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For some, women are seen as weak and vulnerable, and it is no different when it comes to climate change. They are not considered to be agents of change. But this narrative needs to change.

Women are the most. In 2015, during the Young Feminists Day at the 21^st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris, Majandra Rodriguez, a climate activist from Peru, said: “Women are not inherently weak. Inequalities are created by societies.”

Women’s participation in policymaking

There has been significant progress over the years in terms of women’s participation and engagement in climate action.

“The women and gender constituency continues to grow strong. We went from having [a] relatively small presence in the lead up to Copenhagen to having an extremely large presence in the lead up to COP 21,” said Bridget Burns of the Women’s Environment and Development Organization (WEDO).

She also noted the shift toward a better understanding of women and gender issues inside the United Nations (UN) negotiations. “In the negotiations, we’ve seen a huge shift in terms of understanding around gender and climate change. We went from having no language to having a full set of decisions like the Lima work program on gender,” Burns added.

However, she also noted that while there is “progress in the process and in words,” it hasn’t necessarily translated to implementation. “We see that in COP negotiations, women’s leadership goes down because we see where there are bigger decisions being taken—women’s leadership is less. We also see a huge disparity between gender balance amongst regions so there’s a lot less participation in [the] least developed countries,” she said.

Mubanga Kalimamukwento, a negotiator from Zambia, agrees: “From where I come from, women don’t take a central role in the negotiations. So, many women are not yet properly informed on what they can do.”

Women and Climate Action outside the negotiations

But while women’s participation in policymaking and UN processes still needs a lot of work, many are actively seeking solutions to the impact of climate change.

Anna Samwel from Georgia shares how women in her community have been taking part in mitigation and adaptation actions. “We have been developing a gender [initiative called] Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) on sustainable rural energy. Rural women are pursuing the sustainable energy transition by adapting solar water heaters and energy efficient stoves and insulation, all made in their communities. Rural women pursue the adaptation of sustainable technologies,” she said.

Shalia Shahid says the same thing of Bangladeshi women. “Women are the resilient faces of Bangladesh. We’re doing all kinds of things to combat climate change. They are the water managers, they grow food, they work hard to ensure food security for the family and community,” Shahid shares.

However, Ipul Powaseu from Papua New Guinea, a woman with disability, also reminds the women and climate justice movement to also ensure the inclusion of disabled women who are often forgotten. “Women with disabilities are women but their needs are specific. When we talk about issues of women, we need to look at the group of women we have. A lot of times when there are discussions about gender, women with disabilities are left behind,” said Powaseu.

More women participation needed

However, grassroots action will only be beneficial when complemented with policies. This is why women who are involved in the UN negotiations, which conclude on November 18 in Marrakech, Morocco, emphasize the need for more women to be part of policymaking on a larger scale.

“From COP 18, when the gender agenda was introduced into the negotiations, I [wanted] to believe that it was an entry point for women, [and] many women now are part of the process. But the challenge we are having is that the agenda is not sensitive throughout,” said Winfred Lichuma, chairperson of the National Gender and Equality Commission.

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“Countries send representatives [to the UN] but we want to see more women at the decision-making table. Once you get to the decision-making table, the policies that are going to come out of future negotiations will definitely be gender sensitive. It’s not just about women being part of the group.” she added.

Gender Justice

Around the world, women have been actively seeking solutions to climate change, and more and more women are participating in policy- and decision-making processes. Although there is still a lot of work to be done, we have significantly moved forward and we hope these spaces for participation and engagement remain open.

We must ensure that in working toward climate justice, women, who comprise half of the world’s population, are not left behind. There will be no climate justice without gender justice.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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