51吃瓜

Timothy Snyder’s latest book is an important addition to the literature explaining where the present crisis of democracy comes from.

A year after聽, prolific Yale historian聽聽has written his ninth book,聽.聽To call it merely the latest iteration of a new wave of聽鈥溾�澛爈iterature is to sell it short.聽Carefully researched in half a dozen languages, the riveting volume is part historical lesson, part political theory and part consolidation of the dizzying political news of the last four years.聽Two threads weave a vivid tapestry: a narrative with Russia at its center and a more universal political phenomenon that afflicts both Russia and the West.

The historical narrative focuses on Russian President Vladimir Putin who, struggling to develop the economy and decrease stunning inequality at home, chooses to disrupt the European Union and the United States to show that the liberal West provides no alternative to Russia’s inherently superior values.聽Russia launched the in聽Estonia in 2007,聽聽鈥� which President Putin calls an eternal and inalienable聽聽鈥� in 2014, and initiated subversive聽聽in Poland. It provided (and still provides) support for聽聽across Europe, instigated a sophisticated campaign to promote聽听补苍诲听, and finally provided material assistance to Donald Trump’s聽.

Snyder claims all this is influenced by Russian fascist philosopher聽聽who, writing decades earlier, laid the foundation of the Kremlin’s politics of eternal conflict with the West.

The larger thesis focuses on what the author claims the US is experiencing now, and what Russia experienced earlier under Putin 鈥� a predictable transfer of the politics of inevitability (where there is no alternative system) to a politics of eternity (where nothing changes and conflicts with the outside are permanent).聽In this 鈥渋nevitability鈥� and 鈥渆ternity鈥� dialectic, Snyder says, political decisions become irrelevant because there are no choices to be made, as was the case with the聽聽in the West and the endless march toward聽聽in the Soviet Union.聽As conflicts become eternal, politicians and citizens lose agency and the system degenerates from democracy to authoritarianism 鈥� the 鈥渞oad to unfreedom.鈥�

Findings that may surprise readers, even some who follow Russia in earnest, include the intellectual origin of the current regime.聽Few Western scholars have gone as far as to 聽Vladimir Putin聽a聽聽(though that is exactly how Snyder refers to Putin and his regime), as the combination of authoritarianism and oligarchy is unique among large countries.聽Snyder claims that in Putin’s version of fascist politics, a virginal Russia can do no wrong and is under perpetual threat from the decadent, effeminate West.聽Perhaps the most curious feature Snyder points out is the repeated use of sexual imagery of a masculine Russia at war with a homosexual, atheist Europe and America (deployed especially to distract from other issues).

Even the Western media are not immune to Russian narratives.聽The author provides clear examples of Russian state media influencing reporting on the Ukraine crisis, resulting in confusion and a delayed EU response, as with 听肠补濒濒颈苍驳 protestors fascists in the popular American publication The Nation.聽Snyder also contradicts the characterization of the Euromaidan as a , arguing: “A coup involves the military or the police or some combination of the two.聽The Ukrainian military stayed in its barracks,” and that “Even when President Yanukovych fled, no one from the ministries, police, or power ministries sought to take power, as would have been the case during a coup.”

Whether the change in government was a revolution, a coup or something in between, Snyder robustly refutes its characterization as led by fascists, a worrying point of .

Where Is the Bear Suit?

Skeptics may find Russia’s malicious intent convincing, but nonetheless find holes in Snyder’s argument.聽First, President Trump’s role as Russia’s marionette may seem a robust case, though it relies on a massive accumulation of circumstantial evidence.聽Over his first two years as president, Donald Trump had warm words for Vladimir Putin, but some claim it is too soon to say definitively that his compliments come from anything more than genuine admiration. As聽聽has argued: “If you look at the European parties that are populist like Trump, they all are pro-Putin. They just think, I like strongmen. That guy is a strongman, my kind of guy.”聽On the other hand, the financial support many European rightists enjoy underpins Snyder’s theory.

Though much evidence points toward the same conclusion, there is no 鈥渟moking gun,鈥� “no photo of Trump in a bear suit” as the author himself聽 in a lecture, and the president is聽聽that he signed expansions of sanctions against Russia (albeit under pressure from a Republican Senate), increased funding for the European Deterrence Initiative and sent weapons to Ukraine.

The plethora of coincidences and disproportionate number of advisers and cabinet members past and present in the White House with business ties to Russia’s government and oligarchs nonetheless seems too great and too bizarre to ignore.聽The larger point of Russian government employees and bots fomenting discord in American society has been demonstrated by American intelligence agencies, journalists and the CEOs of and .聽Snyder assembles the facts in a compelling way, and any policymaker unconvinced of the need to take online misinformation seriously will be alarmed by how pervasive and effective Russia’s propaganda machine has been, even among those ostensibly not susceptible to such tactics.

The case of Russia’s manipulation of Polish politics is less convincing.聽Snyder argues Russian funding has helped sow chaos in the Polish parliament, but if the goal has been to make Warsaw more friendly to Moscow,聽its 聽has been abject.聽, Poland’s de facto ruler, has publicly stated he believes President Putin ordered the murder of his twin brother, then-president Lech Kaczy艅ski, and聽聽is at the lowest it has been since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Snyder also paints former Polish Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz as a compromised official with connections to Russian mobsters. However, Macierewicz’s vociferous assertions that Russia was to blame for the 2010 , which killed President Kaczy艅ski along with Poland’s top military officials and politicians, when he was head of the聽聽into the disaster point in the opposite direction. In 2017 Russia plans to invade all of聽聽and rebuild a Russian empire.聽Although he has proven a political and has caused problems for his at home and for his abroad, to call him a Russian traitor is to overstate the case.

Although one can question the wisdom of founding the聽聽(WOT) 鈥� a military entity separate from the Polish armed forces hierarchy 鈥� 聽called the force Warsaw’s “own version of hybrid warfare,” and聽聽writes “the WOT鈥檚 wartime role will be to counter Russian airborne and special operation forces behind the frontlines.”聽None of this means Poland is short on problems聽that have shaken the foundations of its democracy.聽Controversial reforms to weaken the judiciary have led to a聽聽unlike any seen since 1989.聽Political polarization and accusations of police overreaction against protestors worry many.

This is not the same as saying Russian influence has done more than cause some opportunistic disruption that has exacerbated existing political problems in the country.

Politics of Responsibility

Although Snyder has painted a compelling picture of the politics of inevitability devolving into the politics of eternity, he does not create as robust a picture of how to fight such perceptions other than a general plea for policies that combat inequality and for politicians to place democracy above party victories and short-term gains.聽These prescriptions seem more rehashing of a center-left platform and less clearly argued than the rest of the tome.

That is not to say identifying the problem is insufficient. Snyder’s book is an important addition to the literature explaining current events and where the present crisis comes from, and聽On Tyranny聽focuses on giving advice for what individuals can do when the signs of tyranny arise 鈥� as the author claims it has. For additional specific advice for those fearful for democracy, see聽How Democracies Die聽by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt.

The book’s great strength is to explain why people think about politics the way they do.聽The inevitability of capitalism or communism helped make their proponents complacent and vulnerable, and what followed 鈥� a politics based on racism, anti-Semitism, permanent conflict against foreigners and “other” world views 鈥� is the danger.聽As long as inequality and oligarchy pervade societies, one can expect more electoral results like Brexit, Donald Trump and an endless Putin regime in the future.

The road to unfreedom is shorter and straighter than anyone could have imagined, and it is the responsibility of all to bring democracy back from the edge of authoritarianism.聽This is Tim Snyder’s plea.聽Proponents of liberal democracy avoid it at their peril.

*[ is published by Penguin Random House, 2018.]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.