51吃瓜

Obama is not only a pop-cultural phenomenon, but also a pragmatic leader. His successor will have to deal with a worldwide net of dependencies.

At the end of his eighth and final address at the annual White House Correspondents鈥� Dinner, US President Barack Obama pulled a 鈥溾�� when he聽 with the words, 鈥淥bama out.鈥�

It is references to popular culture like this that constitute a huge bulk of聽聽with younger people globally, amongst whom he will be sorely missed鈥攖hough that is certainly not the only reason to look back at the last eight years with some wistfulness,聽.

When Obama won the presidency in 2008, he entered the international stage with the and from Western-centric to culturally sensitive approaches in international relations. Already in the early days of his first term in office, this naive longing for for the left in America, while 聽happy to observe the failing of an open-minded political reform process.

Now, in the middle of the presidential primaries in the US, the two most likely opponents in November鈥檚 elections聽are聽probably the in the history of American elections. What a change in comparison to 2008 when Obama had very favorable approval ratings on the聽聽front (over 70%) and聽聽(e.g. over 90% in the Philippines).

Reasons, of course, are manifold. First, since then a lot has changed in global and domestic politics. In the US, as a starting point, while Obama was fiercely welcomed by the liberal part of the electorate, he himself became the target of hate of staunch right-wing conservatives. This, in turn, meant the Republican Party has tried to聽 all potential political successes.

In domestic politics, this translated into inflexible fundamental opposition by the聽Grand Old Party (GOP)聽against the course to , support for health care聽reform and the closure of聽Guantanamo, just to name a few. Globally, the wars in the Middle East, the聽, and聽unrest in 听补苍诲听Ukraine, together with聽 in all these matters, left the Obama administration little choice other than to shift its focus away again from the Asia Pacific toward the 鈥淥ld World.鈥�

All in all, the world of today has become a different one than it was in the first decade of the 21^st听肠别苍迟耻谤测. 聽contemporary tendencies as a return to the great power politics of the 20^th聽century with different means.

Ironically, this can be observed in a region where Obama intended to turn America鈥檚 interest to, but that had been otherwise largely neglected by his predecessors: the Asia Pacific. The struggle for zones of influence between that are similar to the historical American-Russian diplomatic standoff following World War II. During the Cold War, Southeast Asia was as much a ground of ideological, political and economic struggle as was the Middle East and eastern Europe, with battles in the form of .

Today, if anything similar would ensue in the Asia Pacific, such as a second war between the聽Koreas听辞谤 an armed conflict in the South China聽Sea聽over land and sea ownership between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors, this would be far from a proxy war, but a conflict in which consequences would also be felt in the 鈥淥ld World.鈥�

Together with the problematic political situations in Ukraine, the Middle East and South Asia, and due to聽climate change聽and social unrest, the post-Obama administration will have no easy task ahead. It will first have to decide whether it wants to follow the previous administration鈥檚 foreign policy path of pragmatic聽internationalism听辞谤 whether to聽turn聽to an or interventionism is the right choice.

After that, on the second level, all the issues hinted at above will demand individual analysis and care. In a way, although the frames and conditions are different, the US has similar decisions to make as it did in the second decade of the 20^th聽century, when the country鈥檚 administrations were at a crossroads and had to decide on America鈥檚 involvement in the world.

President Obama鈥檚 two terms in office were thus not a new beginning, but a period of transition. Many a comment has already been drafted decrying them as an 听辞谤 , depending on the authors鈥� political backgrounds. All in all, the record of the Obama鈥檚 administration certainly hosts deep disappointments and hope for change. But more than anything else, it holds many lessons.

No Man is An Island

Whatever the younger generation or Barack Obama himself thought when following or聽, it has become clear that one person鈥攄espite being the most powerful national leader of the world鈥攃annot, against fundamental domestic and foreign antagonism, change the course of international relations alone. Every political decision maker is part of a historical, political and sociocultural net, which he or she can influence but only to the degree all the other factors allow him or her to.

The next US president will have to face a net of dependencies, in which the other poles and factors have become stronger than at the end of the 20^th聽century when America was, for a short period of time鈥攁t least in perception鈥攖he only superpower. Today, omnipotence, even if it ever was anything else, is an illusion and, following the聽words聽of late German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, 鈥�.鈥�

Thus, as we are nearing the US presidential election in November, one thing is clear: We will not get a second pop-cultural phenomenon like President Barack Obama. However, we should hope for a candidate who acknowledges this worldwide net of dependencies, and an individual who is willing and able to follow Obama鈥檚 general path of pragmatic internationalism.

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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