51吃瓜

A month after he won the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump gave a speech in North Carolina where  that 鈥渨e will stop racing to topple foreign regimes that we know nothing about, that we shouldn鈥檛 be involved with.鈥�  It鈥檚 still commonplace for foreign policy analysts of the ,  and  to distinguish Trump from his predecessors by pointing out that he hasn鈥檛 pursued the regime-policies of either neoconservatives or liberal internationalists. After all, there鈥檚 been no Iraq or Libya on Trump鈥檚 watch. It鈥檚 a pretty myth. 

True, Trump has no beef against dictators who write him 鈥渂eautiful鈥� letters, so regime change is off the table for the time being with North Korea. But Trump developed a specific animus against Nicol谩s Maduro of Venezuela and did what he could to push him out of office. First, Trump . Then he ratcheted up sanctions against the country. Finally, he  what might have been a coup if the plotters hadn鈥檛 made such a mess of it. 

With Iran, the regime-change policy has been both subtler and more aggressive. Rather than encourage a coup within the country, Trump has developed a variety of different strategies to squeeze the regime. First, he withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (over the objections of a number of his key advisers). Then he imposed ever more punitive sanctions on the country and pressed hard against nations that continued to import energy from Tehran. Finally, he has continued to stand by Saudi Arabia as it seeks to destabilize Iran. So far, Trump hasn鈥檛 sent in the soldiers. But the goal of the administration remains the same. 

A Home Coup

Of course, Trump  that regime change is his objective. But it doesn鈥檛 really matter what Trump says. His rhetoric floats above reality like smog over a city. Rather than debate the finer points of Trump鈥檚 objectives 鈥� which change from day to day, perhaps minute to minute 鈥� let鈥檚 reverse the lens. If it鈥檚 difficult to determine precisely what Trump鈥檚 intentions are toward countries he knows nothing about, it is much easier to figure out what Trump wants to do in the one country he does know something about.

Trump wants regime change in the United States. He鈥檚 not interested in changing the leadership in the White House, as long as he鈥檚 occupying the Oval Office. But he does want to change the very nature of the government. Fox News and others love to talk about a 鈥渃oup鈥� by a 鈥渄eep state鈥� desperate to remove Trump from power. It鈥檚 but one more example of the radical right projecting its covert hopes and fears onto its adversaries. 

The coup is real. But it鈥檚 all about Trump transforming American governance from within and expanding executive power to the max. It鈥檚 not Trump vs. the 鈥渄eep state.鈥� It鈥檚 Trump vs. the state, full stop.

Incredibly, Trump has been busy enlisting the services of foreign leaders who can help make that happen. And it鈥檚 this malfeasance 鈥� on top of his other crimes 鈥� that has now driven Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats to attempt a regime change of their own.

Trump has flouted US rules and regulations, relying on the incorrigible American love of outlaws to maintain his political base. The publication of the Mueller report, which detailed the wrongdoing of the Trump campaign and its connections to Russia, should have made the president think twice about once again enlisting the services of a foreign government to improve his own electoral chances.  But when  on June 13, Trump responded, 鈥淚f somebody called from a country, Norway, 鈥榃e have information on your opponent,鈥� oh, I think I鈥檇 want to hear it 鈥� It鈥檚 not an interference, they have information 鈥� I think I鈥檇 take it.鈥� Federal law, of course, prohibits the solicitation of anything of value from a foreign government in connection with an election.

Flip the Script

The next month, Trump flipped the script. Instead of a foreign leader phoning in with a juicy morsel of information, Trump himself was trying to extract the intel from an unwilling or at least uncomfortable interlocutor. In a phone call with Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump reportedly pressured the Ukrainian president to initiate a corruption investigation into the business dealings of Hunter Biden, Joe Biden鈥檚 son. 

Someone in the intelligence community who listened in on the phone call 鈥� and possibly Trump鈥檚 other communications with foreign leaders 鈥� decided that the president crossed a line. This person , which is how the phone call came to public notice.

Trump admits that he talked about Biden with the Ukrainian leader. He even admits that he put a hold on US military aid to Ukraine prior to the phone call. But Trump denies any wrongdoing, including any hint that US aid would stop flowing if Zelensky didn鈥檛 comply with the request. 

Trump, as usual, has tried to turn the tables by accusing both Joe Biden and his son of impropriety. Hunter Biden had served on the board of a large Ukrainian natural-gas company, Burisma, while his father was vice president. Although there is no evidence that Hunter Biden鈥檚 position affected Obama administration policy toward Ukraine, that hasn鈥檛 prevented Trump鈥檚 attack dog, Rudy Giuliani, from trying to manufacture such a connection. In 2018, Giuliani started building a case that Biden pressured the Ukrainian government to fire its prosecutor general Viktor Shokin because he was investigating Hunter Biden and Burisma鈥檚 co-founder, Mykola Zlochevsky. 

As Adam Entous  in The New Yorker:

“There is no credible evidence that Biden sought Shokin鈥檚 removal in order to protect Hunter. According to Amos Hochstein, the Obama Administration鈥檚 special envoy for energy policy, Shokin was removed because of concerns by the International Monetary Fund, the European Union, and the U.S. government that he wasn鈥檛 pursuing corruption investigations. Contrary to the assertions that Shokin was fired because he was investigating Burisma and Zlochevsky, Hochstein said, 鈥渕any of us in the U.S. government believed that Shokin was the one protecting Zlochevsky.”

Facts be damned, Republican supporters of Trump are scrambling to get ahead of the scandal. The top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes, reading the old cue cards from Russiagate, immediately  on Hillary Clinton and the opposition research she鈥檇 dug up on Hunter Biden鈥檚 Ukrainian connections to counter his father鈥檚 possible presidential candidacy in 2016. Senator Lindsey Graham  Trump to release a transcript of the phone conversation because he鈥檚 convinced that it will exonerate Trump. 

It鈥檚 not the scandal itself that reveals Trump鈥檚 executive overreach. It鈥檚 his blithe disregard of all rules in his quest for absolute power. He simply refuses to be handcuffed, literally and figuratively. 

In a democracy, the state 鈥� its checks and balances, its bureaucracy 鈥� is the box that contains any potential autocrats. The Republican Party adopted its anti-statist philosophy largely to benefit businesses and the wealthy. Trump has a different agenda. He鈥檚 against the American state largely to benefit himself.

The Siren Call of Impeachment

The Democrats have been in a quandary since practically day one of the Trump administration. Here was a president whose crimes and misdemeanors preceded his assumption of office. But for the first two years of Trump鈥檚 term, the Democrats were a minority in both houses of Congress. After 2018, they controlled the House, which meant that they could launch a series of investigations that the president and his team have stonewalled. Because the Senate remains in Republican hands, impeachment continues to be a long shot.

And yet, Trump continues to act with impunity. So, the Ukraine call has emerged as the proverbial line in the sand. A number of prominent Democrats threatened to proceed with impeachment if Trump didn鈥檛 disclose the full contents of his call with Zelensky. Some , like Dean Phillips of Minnesota and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, joined the bandwagon.

Trump backed down by promising to release both a transcript of his phone call with Zelensky and the whistleblower鈥檚 complaint. But Pelosi decided on Tuesday to press forward with an impeachment inquiry nonetheless. Right now, it looks as though the impeachment inquiry will  rather than the other  that congressional committees are investigating.

Impeachment of Trump, at this point, is both a legal and moral necessity. It鈥檚 also very likely a political trap. Trump relishes the role of an underdog, persecuted by the powerful. It鈥檚 what enables him to connect to a political base that, aside from his deep-pocket funders, feels disempowered by a rigged economy and a sclerotic political system. Impeachment, for this constituency, vindicates the narrative of the 鈥渄eep state.鈥� 

Indeed, it suggests that the entire state is out to get Trump 鈥� which it is and should. But impeachment is the only thing that can turn the most powerful man in the world into a cornered victim and, thus, for a significant number of American voters, a sympathetic character.

Even better for Trump if impeachment hinges on this particular scandal. The rough , released on Wednesday, does not exonerate the president. It demonstrates that he brought up the Bidens as part of an implied offer of greater assistance to Ukraine. But it鈥檚 not a slam-dunk either, since there was no specific quid pro quo. A more comprehensive transcript as well as the whistleblower鈥檚 full complaint might provide more details. But inevitably there will be room for interpretation, and Trump will drive the bulldozer of his reelection campaign right through that gap.  

Public opinion, at this early juncture, is against impeachment. According to a  released on Wednesday morning, which doesn鈥檛 reflect the events of the last few days, shows that 37% of Americans favor impeachment, and 57% are opposed. Virtually no Republicans support impeachment.

Yet, if the Dems had continued to equivocate, they would have appeared weak and lacking the leadership necessary to govern the country. Appeasing Trump is not a good election strategy. There鈥檚 no easy way out of this impossible situation. But let鈥檚 think inside the box. Or, rather, inside the boxing ring.

At a rally last year, Biden , 鈥淚f we were in high school, I鈥檇 take him behind the gym and beat the hell out of him.鈥� Trump responded by tweet: 鈥淗e doesn鈥檛 know me, but he would go down fast and hard, crying all the way.鈥� So, let Trump and Biden fight a battle royal, just the two of them out back of the White House. If the country gets lucky, they鈥檒l knock each other out 鈥� and out of the running for 2020. It would be a gift of regime change for both political parties. And maybe someone who鈥檚 not so punch-drunk will occupy the Oval Office in 2021.

*[This article was originally published by .]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.