51吃瓜

Donald Trump loves to talk about ending the endless US wars that he inherited as president. He  about it. He endlessly criticizes his predecessors for their martial mistakes. But like the old saw about the weather, Trump talks a whole lot about endless wars but doesn鈥檛 do anything about them.

Just this month, he went against the advice of pretty much everyone to pull 1,000 US troops out of northern Syria where they were protecting a largely autonomous Kurdish region. The result has been an immediate flare-up in the Syrian conflict as Turkey sent troops over the border to take advantage of the US withdrawal. 

Then Trump turned around and sent an  to Saudi Arabia to help it defend against Iran, or the Houthis or perhaps just internal critics of the regime. In fact, the Trump administration has  to the Middle East since the spring. Compare that with the 1,000 troops that Trump is withdrawing from northern Syria. The president seems more focused on starting fires than putting them out.

The Home Front

Last month, Trump promised a grand deal with the Taliban that would allow the withdrawal of US soldiers from Afghanistan. That didn鈥檛 happen. And what about the Kushner plan that was supposed to end the endless conflict between Israel and Palestine? . 

America鈥檚 drone wars? By March 2019, Trump has  (2,243) than Obama did in his two terms in office (1,878). Counter-insurgency campaigns in Africa? Trump has  in forces on the continent by 2022, but the total forces under the Africa Command actually by more than double that amount, from 6,000 in 2017 to 7,500 in 2018. Containment of China? The Pentagon, under Trump, has  its 鈥渘umber one priority,鈥� and much of the increase in military spending in the Trump administration has gone to .

Meanwhile, on the home front, Trump has declared war on Congress, on the mainstream media, on anyone who disagrees with him. A  shows Trump mowing down all of his critics in an altered outtake from the movie “Kingsman.” As a meme, it鈥檚 disgusting. As a metaphor, it鈥檚 chillingly accurate.

Let鈥檚 face it: Trump is not against endless war. He is the embodiment of endless war. It鈥檚 the essence of his operating system. He went into politics because he understood that it鈥檚 endless war by other means 鈥� and he鈥檚 always been too squeamish to fight in endless wars by ordinary means. 

Once and for all, let鈥檚 bury the myth of Trump the dealmaker. He鈥檚 about as transactional as a heavyweight boxer. Remember: He was the host not of “Let鈥檚 Make a Deal” but of “The Apprentice,” in which he presided over a war of all against all with a single winner and lots of losers. He has simply brought that spirit of un-generosity into the White House. The consequences have been devastating all around.

The Mess in Syria

Somehow Trump figured out the one geopolitical move he could make that could pave the way for a Turkish invasion of Syria, force a desperate alliance between the beleaguered Kurds and the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad, improve Russia鈥檚 standing in the region and revive the fortunes of the Islamic State. 

He seized on this strategy of withdrawing 1,000 troops from northern Syria probably because everyone warned him not to do it. Trump loves to defy expert advice. He鈥檚 convinced that he knows better. It鈥檚 unclear whence he derives this confidence since he has made disastrous decisions his entire life that have produced bankruptcies, unbuilt buildings all over the world, and a near total refusal of banks to provide him with loans.

The latest fiasco started with a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on October 6 in which Trump effectively endorsed the Turkish cross-border operation in Syria. David Sanger, in The New York Times,  that Trump鈥檚 鈥渆rror, some aides concede in off-the-record conversations, was entering the Oct. 6 call underprepared, and then failing to spell out for Mr. Erdogan the potential consequences 鈥� from economic sanctions to a contraction of Turkey鈥檚 alliance with the United States and its standing in NATO.鈥� 

This was enough of a green light for the Turkish leader. Erdogan has been dreaming of invasion for some time in order to neutralize what he believes are a bunch of terrorists aiding Kurdish separatists in southeastern Turkey. He鈥檇 also like to relocate many of the Syrian refugees in Turkey to a new Turkish-controlled area in northern Syria. 

Until this month, however, Erdogan had been satisfied with a buffer zone. In a sense, US troops were serving as peacekeepers in the region. There were not enough to launch significant military operations, but just enough to stand between Turkey and the Kurds on one side and the Syrian government and the Kurds on the other. But no more.

Immediate Victims

The immediate victims of Trump鈥檚 latest decision are the Kurds 鈥� the ally that Trump relied on so heavily in his campaign against the Islamic State. The hope of the Syrian Kurds for maintaining a peaceful and semi-autonomous state is now gone. The Kurds immediately signed a deal with Damascus that has brought Syrian government forces into the one significant part of the country that remained in opposition hands. When Trump鈥檚 callous move forced them to choose, the Kurds opted for the devil they knew over the devil across the border. 

Turkey鈥檚 intervention has displaced tens of thousands of people from their homes. Kurdish refugees are flowing into Iraqi Kurdistan, and humanitarian organizations like Mercy Corps are  from northern Syria.  have taken place, including the execution of Kurdish politician Hevrin Khalaf. Turkey is also  of the military operation, who also happen to be mostly Kurds. Erdogan鈥檚 move is motivated in good part by domestic considerations 鈥� his desire to silence his critics and generate a spike in nationalist sentiment.

Russia, meanwhile, has moved swiftly to take the place of the United States. Russian troops have flowed into northern Syria to serve as a buffer between Turkey and the government in Damascus. Perhaps it鈥檚 better for the Russians to play this role, particularly in the Trump era. But given Moscow鈥檚 support for the ruthless Assad, its willingness to sell anybody pretty much any weapon and its general indifference to human rights, I鈥檓 not enthusiastic about an expanded Russian role in Middle East affairs. The United States was no great shakes, but Russia is worse.

Then there鈥檚 the Islamic State, which has not disappeared, contrary to Trump鈥檚 fanciful assertions. According to : 

“The White House statement on Sunday came as the Islamic State is gathering new strength, conducting guerrilla attacks across Iraq and Syria, retooling its financial networks and targeting new recruits at an allied-run tent camp, American military, counterterrorism and intelligence officers say.

Over the past several months, ISIS has made inroads into the sprawling Al Hol tent camp in northeast Syria, and there is no ready plan to deal with the 70,000 people there, including thousands of family members of ISIS fighters.

American intelligence officials say the Al Hol camp, managed by Syrian Kurdish allies with little aid or security, is evolving into a hotbed of ISIS ideology. The American-backed Syrian Kurdish force also holds more than 10,000 ISIS fighters, including 2,000 foreigners, in separate makeshift prisons.”

In the chaos of the Turkish intervention, at least  escaped from a displacement camp in the Kurdish-held region. Trump has  without any proof that the Kurds deliberately released the prisoners in order to draw the United States back into military engagement. Nice try, Donald: The Kurds are no longer counting on the United States for anything. But the worst part is, it turns out that Trump didn鈥檛 end the war with the Islamic State after all. 

The Second Front

The president has been conducting a two-front foreign policy war ever since he took office. Overseas, he鈥檚 been involved in numerous conflicts with both allies and adversaries. But at home, he鈥檚 also been at war 鈥� with his own policymaking apparatus. He has chewed through foreign policy advisers of all types: Jim Mattis, John Bolton, Rex Tillerson, H. R. McMaster. As he retreats further into the man cave of his Twitterverse, Trump has fallen back on the advice of someone with an even more paranoid and incoherent worldview than his own. It turns out that there鈥檚 an adviser even worse than Trump鈥檚 own gut: Rudy Giuliani. 

The impeachment hearings are every day revealing the real deep state 鈥� the shadow foreign policy orchestrated by Trump and Giuliani. Fiona Hill, who was responsible for Russia and Europe policy at the National Security Council, testified that Giuliani worked to get Marie Yovanovitch, the former ambassador to Ukraine, removed from her post. He was also trying to dig up dirt on Joe Biden and his son Hunter. He was even trying to prove that Ukraine helped the Democratic Party in the 2016 elections. According to , Giuliani 鈥渟aid he believed Hill was out of the loop compared to Sondland and others involved with Ukraine. 鈥楽he just didn鈥檛 know,鈥� he said. He added that he had never talked to her about Ukraine policy.鈥�

Wake up and smell the facts, Rudy: That鈥檚 the definition of a shadow foreign policy. The person who knew the most about Russia and Ukraine was out of the loop? And you, Rudy Giuliani, whose knowledge of Ukraine can be boiled down to a handful of ludicrous conspiracy theories, presume to displace Marie Yovanovitch, who speaks the languages of the region, was deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Kiev from 2001 to 2004, and was determined to help root out corruption in Ukraine? 

And your chief ally in this endeavor, other than a president who has even less understanding of geopolitics than you do, is Gordon Sondland, the US ambassador to the European Union? Sondland has only one qualification for his job: absolute fealty to Donald Trump. The guy鈥檚 nothing more than a glorified hotelier who has spent most of his time in Brussels overseeing  of the ambassador鈥檚 residence. 

Giuliani has emerged as this generation鈥檚 Oliver North, the architect of the Iran-Contra affair during the Reagan years. Like North, Giuliani has been running a covert operation under the noses of the foreign policy professionals. Rudy鈥檚 goal was much narrower and grubbier than North鈥檚: the reelection of the president. Giuliani, in other words, was basically a CREEP (Committee to Reelect the President) unto himself. 

Bad News

All of this is bad news for Trump on the impeachment front. But it鈥檚 also bad news for Giuliani, particularly if it turns out that he didn鈥檛 disclose his lobbying ties, which would expose him to . After all, he actively  to persuade the Trump administration to extradite the cleric Fethullah Gulen from Pennsylvania back to Turkey. Mike Flynn, Trump鈥檚 erstwhile former national security adviser, went down for almost the identical offense. 

Meanwhile, Rudy was pulling down  for his consulting work with the aptly named Fraud Guarantee (or is that Guaranteed Fraud?), which just happened to be owned by one of the Ukrainians recently arrested for campaign finance violations.

It鈥檚 not looking good for the president and all the president鈥檚 men. Trump continues to try to fight his way out of his predicament. So far, he still has the Republican Party in his corner, but that might not last long. 

The impeachment will not be an endless war. It will be nasty and brutish, but it will be relatively short. Trump the putative dealmaker might make one last appearance in an effort to stay out of jail. But the more fitting scenario would be if the president goes down in flames as the most prominent casualty of his own endless war against the US people.

*[This article was originally published by .]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.