51吃瓜

Are Trump鈥檚 stumbles a brilliant ploy to 鈥渄econstruct the state,鈥� a political performance or actual incompetence?

If I were a Donald Trump supporter, I鈥檇 be furious at the coverage of the president鈥檚 first 100 days. The mainstream media have engaged in a bout of competitive听schadenfreude听as headline writers and columnists vie for the distinction of deriving the most pleasure from the administration鈥檚 failures.

Pundits and journalists have made much of the legislation unpassed, the positions听, the appointments unseated and the promises听. It is of a piece with the campaign coverage.

This was, after all, the un-president: a man without qualifications to serve, without a popular mandate from the voters and, once elected, without much interest in the day-to-day slog of governing. At every opportunity, he seems to prefer to decamp to his Florida mansion, retreat to the nearest links or set off on yet another 鈥渧ictory tour鈥� of the states he won in the election.

In the lead up to the 100-day mark on April 29, ABC and听The Washington Post听published a poll demonstrating that Trump, at this juncture in his tenure, is also the most unpopular president in the modern age. Even the administration鈥檚 last-minute efforts to tap into the more nationalistic sentiments of the electorate by bombing the Syrian army, bombing the Taliban in Afghanistan and threatening to bomb the North Koreans seemed to make little difference. Only 42% of the country approve of the president鈥檚 performance (compared to Barack Obama鈥檚 69% at the same point in his first term).

At the bottom of听The Washington Post听, however, is a fascinating little tidbit. Pollsters asked the respondents which candidate they supported in the presidential election. Not surprisingly, the figures corresponded more or less to the popular vote. Respondents said that they favored Hillary Clinton over Trump by 46% to 43%.

But then, when asked whom they would vote for if the election were held again today, the respondents delivered a surprise. They actually favored Trump over Clinton, 43% to 40%.

That鈥檚 astonishing. The candidate who lost the popular vote, who has done pretty much nothing since the inauguration other than put his foot in his mouth or on the putting green, who has the lowest approval ratings after 100 days of any president in the modern era, would still beat Clinton in a rematch 鈥� and probably not just in the Electoral College either.

There are three reasons for this cognitive dissonance. First, although her greatest sin is that she鈥檚 a conventional politician, Clinton inspires considerable hatred across large tracts of American politics. Second, a certain fraction of Trump supporters will stand by their man even if he were to sweep aside his orange comb-over to reveal a pair of devil鈥檚 horns. According to the same poll, although only 85% of Clinton voters pledged their continued allegiance to their candidate, a remarkable 96% of Trump voters refused to budge in their support. Talk about brand loyalty.

Which brings us to the third reason. The Trump administration has indeed displayed unprecedented incompetence in its first 100 days. But not everyone in the country views that incompetence the same way that media outlets do. Indeed, two separate and opposite theories have emerged to explain away what, according to the common-sense view, looks like a lot of people in high places who just don鈥檛 know what they鈥檙e doing.

The Uses of Incompetence

According to the adherents of the first theory, the Trump administration is so dedicated to the deconstruction of the state that it鈥檚 using incompetence as a tool. What better way to tear down liberal social programs and undo the regulatory apparatus than to install the manifestly ill-equipped, like Scott Pruitt at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or Rick Perry at the Department of Energy (DOE), in agencies devoted to missions they either don鈥檛 understand or don鈥檛 appreciate?

Meanwhile, President Trump is making contradictory statements, changing his positions on a daily basis and spouting outright falsehoods in order to throw off his adversaries, both domestically and abroad. His enemies will underestimate him. They won鈥檛 be able to predict his actions. They鈥檒l be scared into adopting conciliatory positions for fear that, like a ruthless and entirely unprepared narcissist, he鈥檒l lash out irrationally and without his country鈥檚 best interests at heart. In other words, what might seem like听听is in fact deliberate craftiness.

The second theory holds that the Trump administration is honestly trying to get things done, but a 鈥渄eep state鈥� 鈥� composed either of Obama appointees or national security operatives 鈥� is opposing him at every turn. Indeed, this deep state is so influential that it鈥檚 turned Trump鈥檚 head on Syria (to bomb Bashar al-Assad), China (to make nice), Russia (to destroy the promise of 诲茅迟别苍迟别) and trade (to back away from a border-adjustment tax).

The 鈥渄eep state,鈥� according to the more conspiratorial sources, is aligned with a range of international actors, all arrayed against Trump. This list includes international financial institutions, transnational political entities like the United Nations and liberal elites (who might not even be liberal, like Angela Merkel of Germany).

Certainly, Trump advisers like Steve Bannon are committed to听听on all the parts of the government they don鈥檛 like (while beefing up those parts they do). And certainly the administration has encountered considerable resistance inside the Beltway and in the world at large to its more radical programs. Yet these explanations are not fully satisfactory.

Which leaves the third possibility: that the incompetence of Trump and his cronies is neither a strategy nor the result of a counter-strategy. The US government is a tremendously complex mechanism, and even smart policy wonks like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama made big mistakes in their first 100 days. Install an ignorant and incurious president who鈥檚 brought in a coterie of the narrow-minded and what do you expect?

Thus, the Trump administration has engaged in a stunning display of ham-fisted, tone-deaf and downright incomprehensible policy maneuvers. It mishandled its travel ban (twice), fumbled the health care replacement bill and alienated members of Congress on both sides of the aisle with its initial budget proposal. Trump has had embarrassing interactions with the leaders of Russia, Australia and Germany (among others). The only obvious victory in its first three months has been the appointment of a Supreme Court justice, but that required Senate Republicans to deploy the 鈥渘uclear option鈥� and confirm with a simple majority (rather than the hallowed tradition of the filibuster-proof 60 votes).

Then there have been the self-destructive appointments. The congressional confirmation process weeded out a few of the worst performers, like Labor Department designee Andrew Puzder, while scandal claimed others, like National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and would-be National Security Council (NSC) communications head Monica Crowley.

But the Trump administration has also been quite effective in auto-destruction, as James Hohmann听听The听Washington Post. Here are some of the early departures from the Trump team: Chris Christie (head of the transition team), Katie Walsh (deputy chief of staff), Boris Epshteyn (special assistant to the president), Gerrit Lansing (chief digital adviser), Anthony Scaramucci (head of the Office of Public Liaison and Intergovernmental Affairs), K.T. McFarland (deputy national security advisor), Craig Deere (NSC senior director for Western Hemisphere Affairs), and Shermichael Singleton (senior adviser to Ben Carson). Close to the exit door are Counterterrorism Advisor听听(for his ties to a Nazi-affiliated organization) and听听(whose incompetence as press secretary has become legendary).

The Trump revolution has been devouring itself at record speed.

What Americans Think

Public opinion pollsters suffered a huge loss of credibility after the results of the 2016 presidential election came in. Up to the last minute, the well-respected FiveThirtyEight site was giving Hillary Clinton听.

One of the problems with polling is that it doesn鈥檛 capture the relative fervency of the respective constituencies. Clinton had fire in the belly, but many of her supporters did not. Trump鈥檚 supporters, on the other hand, were more fired up than even their candidate.

That鈥檚 why the听听out of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs is somewhat misleading. The headline is that the US public sides more with the mainstream foreign policy establishment than with Trump on issues from trade to NATO. Thus, according to the poll, a clear majority of Americans favor US commitment to existing security alliances, embrace economic globalization and free trade, and support robust engagement in world affairs.

The council acknowledges, however, that on certain key issues, the public diverges from the elite:

鈥淭he American public and opinion leaders are in fact divided over several key issues, including the importance of protecting American jobs, U.S. immigration policy, and the importance of protecting U.S. allies鈥� security. Perhaps not coincidentally, these areas where elite-public gaps exist are also the issue areas where Donald Trump鈥檚 message has resounded the loudest.鈥�

Wait a second. These three positions are in fact the flip side of the three issues where the preferences of the public and the Blob supposedly overlap. Americans have a rhetorical commitment to globalization, but they actually put American jobs first. They believe in NATO, but they actually don鈥檛 see the important of coming to the defense of allies, which is the essential element of the security alliance. And they want the United States to remain engaged in the world, but not to the extent that the world engages with us by coming to our shores.

Then, if you look closer at the supposed overlap, it dissolves into the same problem of fervency that threw off the compasses of pollsters in November 2016. For instance, 41% of Republican voters view globalization negatively and 36% want the US to stay out of world affairs. Meanwhile, 79% want to 鈥渂uild a wall鈥� to keep out immigrants, and 75% see Islamic fundamentalism as a critical threat. The numbers are even starker for Trump鈥檚 core supporters.

Now take another look at Trump鈥檚 first 100 days from this perspective. The administration cancelled US participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement and made an expensive bid to keep US manufacturing jobs. It has continued to press for the 鈥淲all鈥� on the border with Mexico in the face of congressional opposition. It signed executive orders to keep out people from seven (then six) predominantly Muslim countries.

Everything else is noise. Sure, some of Trump鈥檚 far-right supporters were angry that he bombed the Syrian army, didn鈥檛 withdraw the United States from NATO, alienated Moscow and banished Steve Bannon from the National Security Council. But Trump鈥檚 core supporters don鈥檛 care much about these issues. What the liberal media sees as failures, flip-flops or sheer incompetence comes across, in Trump country, as good-faith efforts to upend the foreign policy consensus and fundamentally reorient US priorities.

Incompetence, in their view, is fake news. The first 100 days, as staged by fading reality star Donald Trump, has been practically a second American Revolution.

But incompetence has very real effects. Domestically, the courts and Congress and civil society can contain the damage to a certain extent. Internationally, the damage could be catastrophic.

This week, Trump invited the Senate to the White House for a briefing on North Korea. Virtually every expert on North Korea from across the political spectrum has called a preemptive strike a very bad idea. A competent administration would heed these words. An incompetent administration might decide to roll the dice because it doesn鈥檛 understand the game, the odds or the consequences.

If you thought the first 100 days were bad, prepare yourself for something incomparably worse, something that even Trump country would recognize as an epic fail.

*[This article was originally published by .]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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