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Without exception, Trump’s foreign policy picks are members of the far right: aggressive, Islamophobic and contemptuous of diplomacy.

Shortly after taking office in 1969, President Richard Nixon devised his 鈥渕adman theory.鈥� It was the height of the Vietnam War, and Nixon believed that he could end the conflict. It just required a bit of unpredictability.

鈥淚 want the North Vietnamese to believe I鈥檝e reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war,鈥� Nixon his chief of staff H.R. Haldeman. 鈥淲e鈥檒l just slip the word to them that, 鈥榝or God鈥檚 sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about Communists. We can鈥檛 restrain him when he鈥檚 angry鈥攁nd he has his hand on the nuclear button.鈥欌��

To convey this message that Nixon was a violent, obsessed leader, he and his national security advisor, Henry Kissinger, launched a secret bombing campaign in Cambodia. Many people in Southeast Asia鈥攁nd in the United States鈥攚ere convinced that Nixon was indeed a violent, unpredictable man. But the North Vietnamese didn鈥檛 back down, and the United States eventually had to negotiate a face-saving treaty and pull out.

Madman Theory

Donald Trump has adopted his own 鈥渕adman theory.鈥� Throughout his campaign, he insisted that any potential negotiating partner鈥攁lly or adversary鈥攎ust be left guessing. Toward that end, he refused to rule out the of nuclear weapons, even in Europe. 鈥淲e, as a nation, need to be more unpredictable,鈥� he , and millions of people shuddered to think that his hand might one day on the nuclear button.

Trump tried to present this unpredictability as the philosophy that made him a successful businessman (bankruptcies aside). But the plain truth was that, when he didn鈥檛 know an answer to a question or have a ready plan of action, he by pretending to possess a secret approach that would self-destruct if revealed. It sounded like a movie spoof. Mission Unpredictable: Trump鈥檚 Rogue Nation.

Unpredictability wasn鈥檛 just a pose. It was fundamental to Trump鈥檚 style. His late-night tweets, his bursts of anger during the presidential debates, his flip-flops on issues: these were all characteristic of a non-politician, indeed an anti-politician.

Pundits chided him for his lack of impulse control, his failure to self-censor, his impetuosity. But it was fundamental to his appeal, his very 鈥渁uthenticity.鈥� His supporters didn鈥檛 know what a Trump presidency would look like exactly. But they were willing to take a chance. They voted in the same way that they might put a coin into a one-armed bandit. They knew the odds were stacked against them, but they were stilling hoping for a big payout.

In the aftermath of the election, itself an exemplar of unpredictability, Trump has again attempted to keep his audience guessing. He was 鈥減residential鈥� in his acceptance speech. He had a cordial sit-down with President Obama. He lay off the demonization of Hillary Clinton. He walked back some of his more extreme campaign pronouncements on climate change, the Iran deal and waterboarding. He reached out to some unexpected candidates鈥擬itt Romney, Tulsi Gabbard鈥攆or cabinet positions.

Don鈥檛 be fooled by these latest manifestations of 鈥渦npredictability.鈥� In fact, Trump has always been the most predictable of men.

He wants power. He is ruthless and vulgar. And he will do whatever it takes to win.聽It鈥檚 not difficult to predict the kind of foreign policy he will attempt once in office. Trump will try to grab the world by the crotch.

Unfortunately, there鈥檚 no law against sexual harassment of the planet.

The Company He Keeps

Nothing defines Trump鈥檚 predictability more than the choices for his foreign policy team. They are, without exception, members of the far right: aggressive, Islamophobic and contemptuous of diplomacy. Trump emphasized these themes in his campaign, and his appointments so far are entirely consistent with his rhetoric. And yet some anti-war advocates that Trump is a net gain for world peace. Talk about a madman theory.

The United States, guided by its new foreign policy elite, will be a reflection of its chief executive: assaultive and unscrupulous. The best-case scenario is that Trump鈥檚 team will be incompetent, their reach exceeding their grasp. The worst-case scenarios are .

In the George W. Bush administration, the foreign policy team was dominated by the 鈥淰ulcans鈥� who advised the neophyte president on how to look at the world. Within this elite circle, some moderating influences emerged鈥攆irst Vulcan fellow traveler Colin Powell, then Vulcan insider . They possessed a modicum of realism. Powell not to invade Iraq鈥攂ut then, like a loyal soldier, dutifully supported the invasion. Rice would be responsible for such initiatives as engaging North Korea through the Six Party Talks.

The overall failure of these somewhat wiser counsels to have any real impact on the Bush foreign policy speaks to the naivet茅 of those who favor cooperating with the Trump administration.

Taken collectively, Trump鈥檚 foreign policy picks are more martial even than the Vulcans. Mike Flynn, the potential national security advisor, wants to and is when it comes to Islam. Mike Pompeo, the potential head of the CIA, wants , was sorry to see shuttered, and was during the congressional attack on Hillary Clinton鈥檚 handling of the Benghazi affair. If you thought the politicization of intelligence was bad during the Bush years, wait until Pompeo is in charge.

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, , : These potential picks are ideologues who will tear through the international community like a tank at a tea party. The best that can be said about any of the foreign policy appointees so far is that they know nothing: South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, the potential ambassador to the UN, has zero foreign policy experience鈥攗nless, like some Trump supporters, you believe that the South is actually an independent state.

In place of the evil genius of Dick Cheney, there鈥檚 Steve Bannon, the administration鈥檚 chief strategist. From his perch at Breitbart News, Bannon has pushed a and anti-Semitic agenda鈥攚hether he himself is either of those things is irrelevant.

Among the many malign policies he will advance, the most disturbing will be the war on Islam. The Trump administration will not play favorites鈥攊t will go after both Sunni (Islamic State, Hamas) and Shia (Iran, Hezbollah) in waging a larger .

The administration might link arms on a temporary basis with strong-arm leaders鈥擜bdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, or the more conservative Sunni politicians of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain鈥攂ut those will just be tactical alliances to be discarded as Judgment Day approaches. They don鈥檛 want to be distracted by a cold war with Russia, for Putin is a potential Christian ally. Some on Team Trump, like Mike Flynn, against all evidence and common sense that China and North Korea are aligned with the forces of Islam. This 21st-century crusade will serve as the ideological North Star for the Trump administration鈥檚 foreign policy much as anti-Communism functioned for its predecessors.

Mitt Romney as secretary of state? Tulsi Gabbard as secretary of defense? Dream on. Trump is merely gesturing in the direction of unpredictability. Romney is no moderate, while Gabbard would be merely ornamental. In the casino world of Donald Trump, the numbers are always predictable in the end, and they always favor the house. In this case, the house tilts to the extreme right.

Calm Down?

Tom Hanks, a gifted actor but anodyne political commentator, : 鈥淲e are going to be all right. America has been in worse places than we are at right now.鈥�

We, white man?

Sure, well-paid Hollywood liberals don鈥檛 have to worry about the consequences of the elections. Many communities in the United States, however, are justifiably concerned about what will happen to them on January 21, 2017. People with medical coverage through the Affordable Care Act face an uncertain future. Immigrants, documented as well as undocumented, are worried about their status. Muslims, people of color and the LGBT community are all terrified by the dramatic in the first 10 days after the election.

Then there鈥檚 the larger world, which will decidedly not be all right. Human rights activists are anxious about the deals Trump will make with autocrats. The EU is worried about all the future Brexits鈥擣rexit, Czexit, Nexit鈥攖hat Trump will encourage. There鈥檚 the unraveling of the nuclear deal with Iran and the d茅tente with Cuba. There鈥檚 the possibility of war with China, starting with trade and moving on from there. And if that weren鈥檛 bad enough, the next four years will be critical ones for arresting climate change, except that Donald Trump will be trying to get every last bit of coal, oil, and natural gas out of the ground.

Yeah, sure, American has gone through difficult times in the past. Donald Trump is an unpredictable fellow. It鈥檚 only four years.

But it鈥檚 not Donald Trump鈥檚 unpredictability I鈥檓 worried about. It鈥檚 his very disturbing predictability. For Trump, the presidency will be business as usual. The past is prelude, so it鈥檚 really not that difficult to predict the arc of this story.

*[This article was originally published by .]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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