Recent clashes in Aden lay bare the untenable sociopolitical status quo in southern Yemen. Weeks of attacks and conspiracies reveal a Saudi-Emirati alliance and southern Yemeni grievances. A tenuous partnership between forces of the Saudi-backed, internationally-recognized government of President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) 鈥� a UAE-backed proto-state vying for an independent South Yemen 鈥� has collapsed.
These actors鈥� shared mandate to defeat the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, who have controlled most of northern Yemen since March 2015, has faced challenges for years. Tactical disagreements sparked in January 2018, but strategic divergence now abounds. The main driver of conflict is the incompatibility of their respective sovereignties. While President Hadi maintains juridical sovereignty in the halls of the United Nations as the head of the Republic of Yemen, the STC is building empirical sovereignty in Aden and surrounding southern governorates.
Aden has witnessed a turbulent month. On August 1, a Houthi missile strike killed 36 members of the STC-affiliated Security Belt Forces, including the revered commander, . Following an investigation, STC Vice President Hani bin Brik on August 6 that the attack was carried out in collusion with Islah, a Sunni Islamist political party that comprises a portion of Hadi鈥檚 cabinet. The latest series of clashes sparked on August 7 when a gunfight broke out during a funeral procession as it passed near the Ma鈥檃shiq Palace housing Hadi鈥檚 administrative footprint in Aden.
Bin Brik the 鈥渙verthrow [of] the government of terrorism and corruption that is allied with the Islah terrorist party.鈥� Anwar Gargash, the UAE minister of state for foreign affairs, implored for calm. In response, bin Brik , 鈥渁ffirming the preservation of President Hadi鈥檚 legitimacy鈥� while 鈥渞idding it of the dominance of the terroristic Islah party.鈥� Skirmishes continued and, on August 10, STC forces seized Ma鈥檃shiq Palace and other Hadi government sites. On August 17, STC of a withdrawal of pro-STC forces from Hadi government infrastructure. The Hadi-STC intra-coalition tension stems from innate differences in the concept and practice of sovereignty in southern Yemen.
Sovereignty in Yemen
In international law, sovereignty is the exercise of power by a ruling authority. Of the , two forms clash in southern Yemen. President Hadi maintains the juridical sovereignty inherent in recognition from the UN and its member states. However, in light of both the Houthi coup in the north and separatism in the south, Hadi鈥檚 forces maintain a light presence in Yemen itself. Beyond Marib governorate and portions of central Hadramawt, Hadi and Yemeni patronage. In fact, Hadi has spent nearly all of the past four and a half years in Saudi Arabia, having only returned on April 13 for a in Seyoun, central Hadramawt.
Although the STC lacks juridical sovereignty, it is carving out empirical sovereignty. This is what scholar a governing entity鈥檚 鈥渄egree of legitimacy and control over their society and within their borders.鈥� Separatists entities may be more effective maintainers of security and promoters of civic affinity than 鈥渓egitimate鈥� governments cloistered in far-off capitals. By assessing political legitimacy through the two facets of security provision and ideological affinity, it is clear that the empirical sovereignty of the STC supersedes the juridical sovereignty of Hadi鈥檚 in most of southern Yemen.
Security provision is the clearest indicator of the STC鈥檚 growing empirical sovereignty vis-脿-vis the Hadi government. Security Belt, Southern Resistance Forces and other pro-STC militias seized the bases of the third and fourth presidential guard brigades. These victories induced Major General Fadl Abdullah Ba鈥檃sh, a commander in the special security forces of Hadi鈥檚 Ministry of Interior, to support for southern forces. It is likely that more Hadi security personnel will pledge their support to the STC as it consolidates security gains. On August 19, Information Minister Moammar al-Eryani decried Security Belt to seize the Hadi government鈥檚 special security forces camp in Zinjabar, Abyan. Acquiring the camp would further facilitate the STC鈥檚 control over Yemen鈥檚 Gulf of Aden littoral.
As stability returns to Aden, the security situation in other southern governorates is tenuous. The UAE, the key international benefactor of the STC, has prioritized counterterrorism in southern Yemen against the jihadi organizations al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State (IS) in Yemen. The UAE the aforementioned Security Belt, Hadrami Elite Forces, Shabwah Elite Forces and thousands of militiamen to secure southern governorates. While optimistic of UAE-supported forces and their ability to 鈥渟tand on their own鈥� are warranted, AQAP and IS have with increased attacks in Aden and Abyan. The STC鈥檚 main security challenge is ridding portions of Abyan, Shabwah and Hadramawt governorates of jihadi presence.
Ideological affinity is the second element of legitimacy where the STC surpasses Hadi. While Hadi is originally from Abyan, his long-held allegiance to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh spurs disdain. The STC has tapped into a popular desire for southern self-determination, which has persisted since Yemen鈥檚 unification in May 1990. The STC flies the sky-blue chevron and red star flag of the former South Yemen, though it eschews the Marxist ethos of the historic state.
The STC has mobilized numerous since its establishment in May 2017. On August 15, 2019, the STC organized a that drew hundreds of thousands of southerners.
The STC still has work to do to entrench its influence throughout southern governorates. A pro-Hadi 鈥� a collective of southern groups formed in 2007 to promote autonomy 鈥� condemned the recent Aden clashes. Several areas in central Hadramawt are either loyal to Hadi and a unified Yemen or have separatist ambitions distinct from the STC. Additionally, , eastern Yemen have demurred over STC authority.
For the STC to solidify its influence beyond Aden, it must demonstrate that it upholds the interests of all southerners and is not just an implement of Emirati interests. On August 15 the STC released a that deemed all southerners 鈥減artners in the victory鈥� in Aden, stressed its commitment to liberate 鈥渟outhern territories still suffering from terrorism and occupation,鈥� and endorsed economic and education reforms throughout southern Yemen.
Will you support FO鈥檚 journalism?
We rely on your support for our independence, diversity and quality.
Members of Hadi鈥檚 government and southern officials wage a war of words. The Yemeni Embassy in Washington, DC, for 鈥渢he coup perpetrated against the state.鈥� A journalist associated with Hadi鈥檚 presidency has called for an from the anti-Houthi coalition and severance of diplomatic ties. Official STC releases have been more reserved, though advocates of southern independence 鈥渓iberation of all southern territory from any northern presence鈥� and scorn the Hadi government for its absence in the south.
The juridical sovereignty afforded to President Hadi as leader of the Republic of Yemen is void of legitimacy. His forces are folding and his popularity has long been flagging. He must now rest his staying power on the efforts of his vice president, Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, to retain Marib as his base. The STC鈥檚 empirical sovereignty, on the other hand, is coming into focus. It directs a competent security apparatus and demonstrates its to 鈥渇ill the vacuum left by a [Hadi] government deemed illegitimate by Southerners.鈥�
Where Is Southern Yemen Headed?
The circumstances of recent weeks confirm the need for a frank discussion over the future of southern Yemen. While direct Hadi-STC negotiations lie over the horizon, Saudi Arabia the STC for threatening Yemen鈥檚 鈥渦nity, safety and stability.鈥� The STC continues to voice support of the Saudis, but its actions demonstrate a willingness to defy Saudi wishes. The most pressing issue remains how the Saudi-initiated coalition maintains a united front against the Houthis. Also important is discussion over the future of President Hadi. For all of his conferred legitimacy, he has been conspicuously absent from recent events, and his reliance on Islah members remains the main source of tension with the STC.
Finally, there must be a firm understanding of the STC鈥檚 role in administering portions of southern Yemen. The STC continues to to allow southern voices a seat at the negotiation table. Its ability to stabilize southern governorates over the coming months will be a litmus test for its future as an autonomous governing entity.
All of these considerations must contribute to solving the lingering 鈥�.鈥� The security and wellbeing of southerners, and by extension all Yemenis, hangs in the balance.
*[ is a partner institution of 51吃瓜.]
The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.
Support 51吃瓜
We rely on your support for our independence, diversity and quality.
For more than 10 years, 51吃瓜 has been free, fair and independent. No billionaire owns us, no advertisers control us. We are a reader-supported nonprofit. Unlike many other publications, we keep our content free for readers regardless of where they live or whether they can afford to pay. We have no paywalls and no ads.
In the post-truth era of fake news, echo chambers and filter bubbles, we publish a plurality of perspectives from around the world. Anyone can publish with us, but everyone goes through a rigorous editorial process. So, you get fact-checked, well-reasoned content instead of noise.
We publish 3,000+ voices from 90+ countries. We also conduct education and training programs
on subjects ranging from digital media and journalism to writing and critical thinking. This
doesn鈥檛 come cheap. Servers, editors, trainers and web developers cost
money.
Please consider supporting us on a regular basis as a recurring donor or a
sustaining member.
Will you support FO鈥檚 journalism?
We rely on your support for our independence, diversity and quality.
It鈥檚 Not All Bad News for the Gulf
The US is reconfiguring its military presence in the Middle East, but it is not about to pull out lock,...
Securing the Flow of Aid in Yemen
The Soqotra archipelago stands as a potential model for ensuring the flow of aid throughout Yemen.
Can Saudi Arabia Balance Social and Economic Change?
In Saudi Arabia, social and economic change is a delicate balancing act.
Commenting Guidelines
Please read our commenting guidelines before commenting.
1. Be Respectful: Please be polite to the author. Avoid hostility. The whole point of 51吃瓜 is openness to different perspectives from perspectives from around the world.
2. Comment Thoughtfully: Please be relevant and constructive. We do not allow personal attacks, disinformation or trolling. We will remove hate speech or incitement.
3. Contribute Usefully: Add something of value 鈥� a point of view, an argument, a personal experience or a relevant link if you are citing statistics and key facts.
Please agree to the guidelines before proceeding.