51吃瓜

The prospect of potential domestic unrest has hit a raw nerve in Iran.

Iran has long been a formidable regional force. It has projected its power by backing Shia militias, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq, or Sunni groups such as Hamas in Palestine, thereby engaging in a proxy war strategy throughout the Middle East. However, since the independence referendum held in Iraqi Kurdistan on September 25, Iran has become decidedly more explicit in flaunting its involvement in attempting to control the latest regional tensions developing in Iraq between Baghdad and Erbil.

The flash point of this conflict began in Kirkuk when (the foreign wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC), made his presence there public in October, defiantly demonstrating Iran鈥檚 influence in Iraq to America. Following the capture of Kirkuk by Shia militias and Iraqi forces, 鈥檚 photo was promptly displayed in the newly deposed governor鈥檚 office. In a final show of defiance, after US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told Shia militants in Kirkuk to 鈥済o home,鈥� , told America to prepare to withdraw its troops from Iraq.

Two particular events that directly targeted the Iranian regime鈥檚 weak spot and potentially destabilizing factor 鈥� popular unrest at best and uprising at worst 鈥� triggered Tehran鈥檚 increasingly assertive and confrontational stance. Iran fears domestic unrest because, while it has successfully spread its power abroad by empowering Shia parties and militias, internally it has achieved control through severe repression of both its ethnic minorities and dissident political voices.

You Are Our Friends

The first event came in the form of and Israeli听鈥檚 speeches at the in September, in which both made overtures to the Iranian people. Trump spoke of 鈥渢he Iranian regime鈥檚 longest-suffering victims: its own people.鈥� Netanyahu declared to the 鈥減eople of Iran: You are not our enemy; you are our friends.鈥� He then put on a full charm offensive and repeated his advance in Farsi: 鈥淪homa doosteh ma hasteed鈥� (You are our friends). He went on to say that 鈥淥ne day, my Iranian friends, you will be free from the evil regime that terrorizes you, hangs gays, jails journalists, tortures political prisoners鈥� .鈥� Both speeches were accompanied by warnings of Iran鈥檚 growing power that must be curbed. This insinuates an interesting strategic change of policy that involves targeting the Iranian regime鈥檚 fear of destabilization through internal revolt.

The second event was the unexpected that caught most off guard. Before the results were even announced, the sheer number and speed at which hundreds of thousands of Kurds gathered throughout the of Iran to was astonishing. Iranian Kurds defied a repressive regime in a way that had not occurred since the Islamic Revolution. The , with , and over . The of 1946 鈥� the first attempt at an independent Kurdish state 鈥� still haunts the Iranian regime, which is now alarmed by the unity Iran鈥檚 Kurds have demonstrated with their Iraqi neighbors. What is more, this civilian outpouring if support was followed by political , as well as military support from that has been fighting in Iraqi Kurdistan in post-referendum confrontations.

The events that occurred in the Kurdish regions of Iran received scant media attention, and when they did, they were demonstratively . This was the case during a panel discussion organized by The at the end of September, during which it was suggested that only 1,000 people protested, and that the demonstration was fairly irrelevant and easy to contain. The reality on the ground was conspicuously different, and Tehran鈥檚 heavy-handed response is an indication of the regime鈥檚 angst regarding its minorities.

Iran will go to great lengths to suppress the Kurds, as, despite being an ethnically diverse country in which 40% to 50% of the population is non-Persian, its . The is widespread, ranging from , to in front of relatives after lasting no more than 15 minutes. At times, this has led to unrest. For instance, in 2006, the and burned down government buildings after a cartoon portrayed them as cockroaches, with hundreds of protestors were arrested as a result.

More recently, in early September 2017, following the killing of two Kurdish men by Iranian security forces at the border. These protests were met with tear gas and gunfire, with hundreds arrested.

The , threatening the status quo. It is important to bear in mind that the extent of the repressions, executions and silencing that the Kurds face in Iran is such that they are known as the 鈥�.鈥� It is therefore a common error to underestimate the threat they represent in the eyes of the Iranian regime as their discontent rises.

Simmering Discontent

Trump鈥檚 recent to decertify the Iran nuclear deal and to introduce sanctions against the IRGC under a has received significant media attention and is undeniably part of the reason why Iran is reacting in open defiance to America by showing that it ultimately holds sway over Iraq 鈥� an undoubtedly bitter pill for the US to swallow. However, it seems that the recent external and internal tribulations have hit a raw nerve in Tehran.

Indeed, whilst , many do not. For example, in response to the IRGC designation as a terrorist organization, , which was not a resounding success. The social media response demonstrated that many Iranians view the IRGC as an organization that terrorizes its own people. It is noteworthy that many Iranian voices that on Twitter are based inside Iran and not just in the wider diaspora, which is in itself a significant sign of defiance to the regime.

In its attempt to rally popular support behind the IRGC, the regime attempted to create a semblance of overt national cohesion in response to outside pressures precisely because it knows very well that a large proportion of its population does not endorse the regime. Suffice to remember the 2009 that erupted in mass protests after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad鈥檚 contested reelection. The repression was brutal, but it was also a clear indication of simmering discontent throughout Iranian society.

were also involved in the Green Movement but were soon disenchanted as the leaders were reluctant to support minority rights, which are viewed as having separatist undertones. Ironically, President Hassan Rouhani was elected on the joint promise of achieving a nuclear deal and civil rights reform, including fair trials for ethnic minorities and Green Movement leaders. Yet today the even further past the levels of Ahmadinejad鈥檚 presidency, according to Ahmed Shaheed, former UN special rapporteur. Consequently, domestic tensions and discontent may well continue to rise as Rouhani鈥檚 promises of reforms are not being met.

Iran knows that its most concerning weakness and challenge lies in domestic, not foreign, destabilization. It has therefore resorted to taking a much more openly aggressive stance in asserting its power in the region as its long-term challengers 鈥� Israel, America and its own Kurdish minority 鈥� have apparently turned to more openly seeking to gaud Iran鈥檚 weakest point.

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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