51吃瓜

A final agreement between Iran and the West will benefit both sides politically and economically.

In November 2013, Iran and the West an聽interim agreement over Tehran鈥檚 nuclear program. It was the first successful negotiation between both parties after 35 years of聽fruitless efforts, mutual suspicion and a hostile climate that was on the verge of an armed confrontation.

The successful completion of ongoing negotiations could result in a permanent deal. On the one hand, this could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Iran, while on the other, it might render the nuclear program of Tehran to be peaceful after all, erasing fear of a potential nuclear weapon.

Reactions to the Deal

The reception of the interim agreement was varied among world leaders. The deal sparked a heated debate between analysts about its possible consequences for security, as well as for the world and regional order.

In response to claims that concern the nuclear arsenal capabilities of Tehran, a recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report highlighted that Iran聽has processing uranium to 20% enrichment 鈥� a critical threshold above which the production of a nuclear weapon is only a matter of time. The remaining nuclear material of 20% enrichment is converted to other forms that cannot be processed further.

According to聽, the implementation of these provisions halts the possibility of producing a nuclear bomb during the end of the first phase agreement. It also 鈥渁dds several weeks to the amount of time that it would theoretically take Iran to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear weapon鈥� after the expiration of this period.

At the same time, the US and European Union (EU) suspended a number of economic sanctions that were imposed on Iran. These were mainly聽聽on trade in petrochemicals, precious metals and the provision of insurance for oil shipments.聽However, many sanctions in domains such as the arms industry, machinery products and financial assistance remain in place. As聽a senior US official聽: 鈥淭his temporary relief will not fix the Iranian economy. Iran is not and will not be open for business until it reaches a comprehensive agreement.鈥�

Iran and the P5+1: The Process of Negotiations聽

The negotiating teams still have to overcome a series of obstacles that prevent a final agreement; Iran鈥檚 ballistic missile program is one of them. The Iranian defense minister, Gen.聽Hossein Dehghan, recently journalists: 鈥淚ran鈥檚 missiles are not up for discussion under any circumstances 鈥� Iran’s missiles are only our concern … We don鈥檛 accept any intervention from anybody on this issue.鈥� The reason for this persistent Iranian refusal to negotiate over its missile program is rooted in the important role it plays for Iran鈥檚 defense capabilities. As聽Michael Elleman聽: 鈥淭hey [the missiles] represent one of Iran鈥檚 few capabilities to deter attack, intimidate regional rivals, and boost military morale and national pride.鈥� The US government鈥檚 decision to demand the inclusion of the missiles question in negotiations resulted from pressure by the聽 lobby in America.

Another contentious issue concerns the future enrichment capability of Iran. According to the latest report of the聽,聽a possible solution to the enrichment program would be to reduce 鈥渢he number of enrichment facilities to one 鈥� kerbing related research and development (R&D) activities and constraining the number of centrifuge production facilities.鈥� The aim of such a proposal from the P5+1 would be to augment the time that is necessary to enrich all the uranium needed to build a nuclear weapon.

Prior to the imposition of sanctions by EU states, Peugeot and Renault made significant exports to Iran. Peugeot was one of the two biggest automakers in Iran, while sales of the company dropped by 68% after sanctions were placed.

Furthermore, it would stand in opposition to Tehran鈥檚 plans to produce its own fuel of nuclear reactors, as well as its goal to build new power and research reactors. Such intentions聽聽the multiplication of centrifuges.聽In April, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran鈥檚 nuclear energy, plans to install 30,000 additional centrifuges for the enrichment of uranium in order to fuel the Bushehr power station.

An additional issue that is relevant to enrichment concerns is the research and development program. Iran鈥檚 supreme leader,聽Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was 聽as saying: 鈥淭hese negotiations should continue, but all should know that negotiations will not stop or slow down any of Iran鈥檚 activities in nuclear research and development.鈥� Under these circumstances, one has to take into account Foreign Minister聽Mohammad Javad Zarif鈥檚 聽after a recent meeting in Vienna: 鈥淚 can say we agree on 50-60% of issues, but the remainders are important ones and diverse. Even 2% can torpedo all of it.鈥�

Besides the hard negotiation process, the Iranian government has to confront domestic critics who view negotiations and a possible agreement with skepticism, if not open hostility. According to聽, a parliamentarian who supports Rouhani鈥檚 government, the conservative opposition is of the opinion that the president 鈥渉ad accepted the ideals and standards of the West before the negotiations even began.鈥�

, the former head of Iran鈥檚 Atomic Energy Organization, spoke of a weakening of Iran鈥檚 national interests during a conference held by opponents of negotiations on May 3.聽It is 聽the conference was organized by the student鈥檚 branch of Basij, a militia closely linked to the conservative establishment of Iran. If this piece of information is accurate, then we can expect sharp criticism from the conservative elite that was associated with former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, if an agreement is reached.

Benefits of a Permanent Arrangement

In the event of a permanent solution, the economies of the US and its Western allies would be boosted by the further lifting of sanctions. According to聽, American companies like Boeing and Caterpillar 鈥渨ill be huge recipients of purchase orders coming from Iran,鈥� helping the American Midwest and Pacific Northwest to weather the economic storm. 聽is also set to benefit from the easing of economic sanctions. Prior to the imposition of sanctions by EU states, Peugeot and Renault made significant exports to Iran. Peugeot was one of the two biggest automakers in Iran, while sales of the company dropped by 68% after sanctions were placed.

There are indications the oil sector is also willing to reactivate its business in Iran.聽聽has already stated its interest to return to the country. According to Iranian sources,聽聽has negotiated a new partnership with Tehran. Additionally, there is also the gas domain that has not yet been sufficiently exploited.

Prior to sanctions, the聽EU economy manufactured and machinery goods worth 鈧�3.1 billion ($4.3 billion) to Iran. A possible reestablishment of economic cooperation would augment European exports and boost the EU鈥檚 economy during this critical period.

On the geopolitical level, US initiatives to improve relations with Iran can bring more balance to the Middle East for two reasons. First, Iran can play a constructive role in the Syrian crisis. As the Assad regime regains control of regions and crucial passages, the overthrow of the Syrian government seems to be unrealistic. Only further negotiations between Damascus and the opposition will end the conflict. Therefore, considering Iran鈥檚 strong relations with Syria, its role during these negotiations in pressing the Assad regime to accept a compromise will be crucial.

Second, Iran can also bring more stability to Lebanon. It is well-known that Tehran exerts an important influence over Hezbollah. A moderate government in Tehran that feels safe in its regional environment can put pressure on the Shi鈥檃 group to accept a settlement on its extensive weapons arsenal. Any deal would demand that Hezbollah鈥檚 arms are placed under the control of the Lebanese Army.

To sum it up, Iran and West have made important progress in ameliorating their relations with the signing of the interim agreement. Both sides have already implemented various provisions of the deal.

However, the interim agreement does not permanently settle the controversy surrounding Tehran鈥檚 nuclear program, nor does it suspend the main body of sanctions that keep Iran in an economic stalemate. The current phase of negotiations includes a number of thorny issues, but both sides stand to gain from a comprehensive agreement in political and economic terms. It is important for the interlocutors to sidestep the mutual mistrust and collaborate to reach an agreement within the deadline that expires on July 20.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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