51吃瓜

Many analysts agreed that once the military withdrew support for the flailing regime in Caracas, the fall of Bolivarian socialism would be unavoidable, perhaps a matter of days or weeks.

Political analysts have been expecting Nicol谩s Maduro鈥檚 imminent downfall for quite some time now. Nonetheless, after years of massive waves of protest and more than three months of international recognition of opposition leader Juan Guaid贸 as interim president, Maduro remains in power in Caracas.

The Venezuelan crisis seems to be endless. Since its in 2017, the news became almost apocalyptic:聽prolonged ,听辫别辞辫濒别 聽and eating聽聽to survive,聽 in the backyard and even聽, unable to care for them. According to a survey by the country鈥檚 three biggest universities, 90% of the population was living in poverty in 2017. On average, Venezuelans lost 11 kilograms in a year on the so-called Maduro diet. Some聽60% of the interviewed waking up hungry, and about 25% said they ate two meals or fewer a day.

This end-of-the-world scenario has forced some 3.4 million people to leave Venezuela, as per the by the United Nations Refugee Agency. This number could reach 5.9 at the end of 2019, as almost 5,000 people flee to neighboring Colombia every day. To make matters worse,聽about 13,000 in the last four years. The health system has collapsed, doubling cases of malaria and tripling incidences of HIV/AIDS, making up a 鈥溾�� with tuberculosis. But Maduro has refused all offers of humanitarian help, insisting that Venezuelans are not “.鈥�

A Hope Named Guaid贸

Nicol谩s Maduro’s resistance is based in two main factors: support by the Venezuelan army, as well as Russia and China 鈥� the country鈥檚 . When it comes to the military in Venezuela, there is a close relation with Maduro鈥檚 predecessor, Hugo Ch谩vez. Under the former president 鈥� himself a career military officer 鈥� the army has grown in number as well as political prestige. The army began to occupy official positions and participate in the country鈥檚 . In 2017, 10 of the 32 cabinet members were active-duty, and two were retired military officers. Today, the armed forces still manage some of the country鈥檚 key industries, including the national oil company, PDVSA. This way, the regime has created a belt of protection for itself, ensuring .

Nonetheless, with the country plunging deeper into crisis, the conditions, especially for the military’s lower and middle ranks, have worsened. Maduro’s high command has created special units to stamp out anti-regime activities in the forces. Since then,聽hundreds of of soldiers and their relatives were registered.

In January, Juan Guaid贸, a deputy elected in 2015 and president of the national assembly,聽declared himself interim president on the basis that Nicol谩s聽Maduro disrespected three articles of Venezuela鈥檚 constitution, which was drafted under Ch谩vez.聽In the following days, more than 50 countries, including the United States and most of the European Union, as interim president, putting pressure on Maduro to step down. In South America, Colombia, Per煤, Argentina and Venezuela鈥檚 biggest neighbor, Brazil, have recognized Guaid贸.

Many analysts agreed that once the military withdrew support for the flailing regime, the fall of Bolivarian socialism would be unavoidable, perhaps a matter of days or weeks. Following international recognition of Guaid贸 as interim leader, over 300 members of the Venezuelan armed forces have deserted in a matter of days, many fleeing to Colombia and Brazil. It is not clear if there is a conflict between lower and upper ranks of the armed forces, but the desertions indicate that dissatisfaction among the officers is growing.

However, not everything was lost: Maduro found support from allies like Cuba, an old friend of chavismo, as well as Turkey, China and Russia endorsing the regime. In a demonstration of solidarity, 聽in a clear message that an intervention from the United States would have consequences.

A Coup that Wasn’t

On April 30, Guaid贸 posted of him surrounded by the military. The group, formed by dozens of unidentified soldiers, has also liberated Leopoldo L贸pez, a prominent opposition leader held under house arrest for the past two years. “Operation Freedom” has taken thousands to the streets, and the images of have spread to the world.

However, it has not been enough to topple Maduro. At a organized 鈥渢o reaffirm the absolute loyalty of the armed forces,鈥� the embattled dictator聽talked directly to the military about loyalty.聽The fact that L贸pez was allowed to escape, however,聽shows that there are strong divisions in the armed forces. Guaid贸 admitted that the , as most of the armed forces stayed loyal to Maduro, who still occupies his official residence at Miraflores Palace. Juan Guaid贸 is now considering asking for a .

Since Guaid贸鈥檚 international recognition, Maduro has decided against , as the regime has done with other opposition leaders. In this game of political chess, a direct action against Guaid贸 could mean a signal to military action from the international community. But, on the morning of May 9, Venezuelan intelligence agents the national assembly鈥檚 vice president and Juan Guaid贸鈥檚 right arm.

A Bigger Crack

At this point it seems unlikely that the United States, Russia and China would enter into a proxy conflict in Venezuela, but a belligerent outcome cannot be brushed away. As a result, Maduro could either be deposed immediately, or following a lengthy conflict. It is important to highlight that the country has the world鈥檚 biggest oil reserves, attracting many interests.

Russia, for example, has around $17 billion in Venezuela since 2005, especially through the state oil company Rosneft, in PDVSA. Maduro鈥檚 fall could represent difficulties in retrieving that investment. For Washington, a change of government in Caracas would be convenient for returning to cordial political relations with its main oil supplier. More than that, such a change would suit the United States politically, since Ch谩vez and Maduro have been always with Iran, Russia and China.

But Maduro could remain in the charge despite a lack of popular support internally while suffering external pressure, as he has done in the last few years. While it is difficult to imagine a continuation of the status quo, it is a feasible scenario.

Another possibility is that the regime loses power and collapses, which seems more likely at this point given the international political pressure as well as a new set of imposed earlier this year, intent on starving the regime. Guaid贸 has that the opposition has been meeting clandestinely with the army high command. Leopoldo L贸pez sees as “a crack that will become a bigger crack … that will end up breaking the dam.” Meanwhile, the Venezuelan nightmare seems to have no end.

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.