51吃瓜

Russia will keep sidelining the opposition with ever-growing impunity in the years to come.

In what has become an all-too-common pattern, Russian authorities have once again聽聽the only viable candidate who might have stood a chance against President Vladimir Putin come the 2018 elections. Much to the bitter disappointment of Western observers, Alexei Navalny, the popular anti-corruption campaigner and dogged critic of Putin and his entourage, was found guilty of embezzlement and handed a five-year suspended sentence.

On February 8, a Russian district court in Kirov, 800 kilometers northeast of Moscow,聽聽Navalny guilty of defrauding a state timber company. In addition to a suspended sentence, the court handed him a fine of 500,000 rubles ($8,700).

The decision has been a long time coming, as Navalny was originally convicted in 2013. Then, the judge ordered his immediate imprisonment, but reversed the decision and released him pending appeal after rioting broke out in the streets of Moscow. Navalny later wrote in a statement that the suspension was 鈥渁n admission that in fact there was no crime committed 鈥� But it keeps a politician who has now gained national notoriety on the hook, with the chance he could be sent to jail at any moment.鈥�

Observers also noted that by temporarily allowing Navalny to continue his anti-Putin political activities, the Kremlin got to cover itself with the thin veneer of legitimacy that tolerating opposition parties confers.

Such magnanimity didn鈥檛 last for long, however. In 2016, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) made a pronouncement on the original decision. It ruled that Navalny had been denied the right to a fair trial and ordered that he be paid 鈧�63,000 in damages and legal fees. In November, the Russian Supreme Court overturned the decision following the ECHR ruling, only to send the case back to the district court of Kirov鈥攆or a pronouncement that was an almost word-for-word repeat of the 2013 decision.

Of course, it鈥檚 no coincidence that the district court鈥檚 decision comes little more than a month after Navalny announced his intention to run for president in 2018. As a result, the ruling is nothing more than a barely-disguised effort by the Kremlin to eliminate Putin鈥檚 only credible opponent before the election. Russian law forbids anyone convicted of a crime from running for office. While Navalny has聽聽to continue his campaign, it remains to be seen whether the Kremlin will look kindly on his defiance as the race ramps up over the next 12 months.

Many observers have already begun to wring their hands over the Russian government鈥檚 efforts to sideline Navalny. After all, he has been the most prominent member of the Russian opposition landscape for nearly a decade.

A lawyer and anti-corruption activist, he first聽聽to the scene nearly 10 years ago, when he started to blog about alleged misdeeds at state-owned companies. He was the instigating force behind large street protests in 2011, when he led thousands of demonstrators to condemn the victors in the latest parliamentary elections as a 鈥減arty of crooks and thieves.鈥� Since then, he has been a constant thorn in the side of the Kremlin, demanding free elections and exposing corruption and hypocrisy at the highest levels of the establishment.

Despite Navalny鈥檚 anti-corruption platform, though, his movement is not nearly as untarnished as it might seem. For instance, he has been聽聽with Russian nationalists and has made a series of inflammatory statements that raise serious questions about his ability to govern. He has聽聽in an annual march that brings together numerous Russian nationalist groups and has called for the deportation of illegal immigrants. He鈥檚 backed Stop Feeding the Caucasus, a campaign that aims to end federal subsidies to the 鈥渃orrupt鈥� governments of Chechnya and its neighbors. Navalny also supported the Russian war against Georgia in 2008, demanding that all Georgians be kicked out of Russia, using a racial epithet to describe them in the process.

However, Navalny has rejected claims that his 鈥渘ationalist,鈥� anti-immigrant agenda would stoke neo-Nazi tendencies in Russia. Instead, he has called for an open discussion of issues such as illegal immigration, 鈥渆thnic鈥� organized crime groups and crime in the North Caucasus.

TRUMP AND PUTIN

Navalny鈥檚 sentence couldn鈥檛 have come at a worse time. With populist movements gaining power at a frightening pace鈥攆rom the United States to Britain and continental Europe鈥攐utrage over Russia鈥檚 actions was muted.

After all, just look at the Trump administration鈥檚 reaction鈥攐r lack thereof鈥攖o the聽聽of another, less prominent Russian opposition activist, Vladimir Kara-Murza.聽Days before the court ruled on Navalny鈥檚 case, Kara-Murza was taken to a hospital in Moscow, where he was treated for his second alleged poisoning in two years. It is widely suspected that he was targeted in retribution for his political activism.

In response, several US lawmakers have voiced their support for Kara-Murza鈥檚 predicament. Last week, for instance, the ranking and minority members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee called on the newly minted secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, to 鈥減ay close attention to Vladimir Kara-Murza and other Kremlin opponents鈥� as they formulate the administration鈥檚 Russia policy. The executive branch, however, has remained notably mom on the matter.

Given President Donald Trump鈥檚 well-publicized cozying up to Putin, however, and his recent聽聽to qualify his Russian counterpart as a 鈥渒iller,鈥� it looks like Moscow will be able to continue sidelining the opposition with ever-growing impunity in the coming years.

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

Photo Credit: