51吃瓜

While France teeters on the brink of the far right, left parties elsewhere are showing surprising strength.

Going in to the recent elections in the Netherlands, the mainstream story seemed lifted from William Butler Yeats鈥� poem,聽The Second Coming: 鈥淭hings fall apart; the center cannot hold 鈥� The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.鈥�

The right was on the march, the left at war with itself, the traditional parties adrift and the barbarians were hammering at the gates of the European Union (EU). It鈥檚 a grand image, rather like聽Game of Thrones. But the reality is considerably more complex.

There is, of course, some truth in the apocalyptic imagery: right-wing parties in the Netherlands, France and Germany have grown. There are indeed some sharp divisions among left parties. And many Europeans are pretty unhappy with those that have inflicted them with austerity policies that have tanked living standards for all but a sliver of the elite.

But there are other narratives at work in Europe these days besides an HBO mega series about blood, war and treachery.

A Shot Across the Status Quo in the Netherlands

The recent election in the Netherlands is a case in point. After holding a lead over all the other parties, Geert Wilders鈥� right-wing, racist Party for Freedom faltered. In the end, his Islamophobes didn鈥檛 break the gates, though they did pick up five seats.

Overall it was a victory for the center, but it was also a warning for those who advocate 鈥渟taying the course鈥� politics鈥攁nd, most pointedly, the consequences of abandoning principles for power.

The Green Left did quite well by taking on Wilders鈥� anti-Islam agenda and challenging Prime Minister Mark Rutte鈥檚 center-right Popular Party for Freedom and Democracy on the economic front. In one national debate,聽, the Green Left鈥檚 dynamic leader, argued that janitors should be paid more and bankers less. The election, he said, is not about 鈥�,鈥� but about 鈥渉ousing, income, and health care.鈥� The voters clearly bought it.

Rutte鈥檚 coalition partner, the center-left Labor Party, was crushed, losing 29 seats. For the past four years, the Dutch Labor Party has gone along with Rutte鈥檚 program of raising the retirement age and cutting back social spending, and voters punished them for shelving their progressive politics for a seat at the table.

Rutte鈥檚 party also lost eight seats, which probably went to centrist parties like Democrats66, suggesting that Rutte鈥檚 鈥渂usiness as usual鈥� isn鈥檛 what voters want either (though it鈥檚 still the number one party in the 150-seat parliament).

There were some lessons from the Dutch elections, though not the simplistic one that the 鈥減opulist鈥� barbarians lost to the 鈥渞easonable鈥� center. What it mainly demonstrated is that voters are unhappy with the current situation, they are looking for answers, and parties on the left and center left should think carefully about joining governments that think it is 鈥渞easonable鈥� to impoverish their own people.

France on the Brink

Next up in the election docket is France, where polls show Marine Le Pen鈥檚 neo-Nazi National Front leading the pack in a five-way race with traditional right-wing candidate Francois Fillon, centrist and former Socialist Party member Emmanuel Macron, Socialist Party candidate Benoit Hamon and leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon. The first round, scheduled for April 23, will eliminate all but the two top vote getters. A final round will be held May 7.

With Melenchon and Hamon running at 11.5% and 13.5% respectively, thus splitting the left vote, the race appears to be between Fillon, Macron and Le Pen, with the latter polling slightly ahead of Macron and considerably better than Fillon.

If you鈥檙e attracted to the apocalypse analogy, France is probably your ticket.

Le Pen is running a campaign aimed against anyone who doesn鈥檛 look like Charlemagne or Joan of Arc, but her strong anti-EU positions play well with young people, in small towns and among rural inhabitants. All three groups have been left behind by neoliberal EU policies that have resulted in de-industrialization and growing economic inequality. Polls indicate she commands 39% of 18-to-24 year olds, compared with 21% for Macron and 21% for Fillon.

Fillon has been wounded by the revelation that he鈥檚 been using public funds to pay family members some $850,000 for work they never did. But even before the scandal, his social conservatism played poorly with the young, and workers are alienated by his economic strategy that harkens back to that of British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, whom he greatly admires.聽聽sound much like Donald Trump鈥檚: cut jobless benefits and social services, lay off public workers and give tax cuts to the wealthy.

Macron, an ex-Rothschild banker and former minister of economics under President Francois Hollande, is running neck and neck with Le Pen under the slogan聽鈥�鈥澛�(鈥淥n Our Way鈥�), compelling critics on the left to ask, 鈥渢o what?鈥� His platform is a mix of fiscal discipline and mild economic stimulation. At 39, he鈥檚 young, telegenic and a good speaker. But his policies are vague, and it鈥檚 not clear there鈥檚 a聽there听迟丑别谤别.

Most polls indicate a Le Pen vs. Macron runoff, with Macron coming out on top, but that may be dangerous thinking. Macron鈥檚 support is soft. Only about 50% of those who say they intend to vote for him are 鈥渃ertain鈥� of their vote. In comparison, 80% of Le Pen鈥檚 voters are 鈥渃ertain鈥� they will vote for her.

There are, as well, some disturbing polling indications for the second round. According to the聽, some 38% of Fillon鈥檚 supporters say they鈥檒l jump to Le Pen鈥攖hat鈥檚 2 million voters鈥攁long with 7% of Hamon voters and 11% of Melenchon backers.

What may be the most disturbing number, however, is that 45% of Melenchon voters say they won鈥檛 vote at all if Macron is the anti-Le Pen candidate in the second round. Some 26% of Fillon鈥檚 voters and 21% of Hamon鈥檚 voters would similarly abstain.

Le Pen will need at least 15 million votes to win, and the National Front has never won more than 6 million nationally. But if turnout is low, Le Pen鈥檚 strongly motivated voters could put her into the Elysee Palace. In this way, France most resembles Britain prior to the Brexit vote.

If that comes to pass, Le Pen will push for a national referendum on the EU. There鈥檚 no guarantee the French will vote to stay in the union. And if they leave, that will be the huge trade organization鈥檚 death knell. The EU can get along without Britain, but it could not survive a Frexit.

Surprising Strength on the German Left

Germany will hold national elections on September 24, but the story there is very different than the one playing out in France.

The German government is currently a grand coalition between Chancellor Angela Merkel鈥檚 conservative Christian Democrats and the center-left Social Democrats. The alliance has been a disaster for the Social Democrats, which at one point saw its poll numbers slip below 20%.

But German politics has suddenly shifted. On Merkel鈥檚 left, the Social Democrats changed leaders and have broken with industrial policies that have driven down the wages of German workers in order to make the country an export juggernaut. On the chancellor鈥檚 right, the racist, neo-Nazi Alternative for Germany (AfD) has drained Christian Democrat voters to support a ban on immigration and a withdrawal from the EU, although AfD is dropping in the polls.

The game changer has been the sudden popularity of former EU President Martin Schulz, the new leader of the Social Democrats. The party is now neck and neck with Merkel鈥檚 bloc, and some polls show Schulz actually defeating Merkel. In terms of聽, Schulz is now running 16 points ahead of Merkel. While the chancellor鈥檚 Christian Democrat alliance tops the polls at 34%, the Social Democrats are polling at 32% and climbing.

Schulz has made considerable headway critiquing declining living standards. Germany has large numbers of poorly paid workers, and almost 20% of workers age 25-to-34 are on insecure, short-term contracts. Unemployment benefits have also been cut back, even though Germany鈥檚 economy is the most robust in Europe and the country has a $310 billion surplus.

In any case, the days when Merkel could pull down 40% of the vote are gone. Even if her coalition comes in at number one, it may not have enough seats to govern, even if its traditional allies, the Free Democrats, make it back into the Bundestag.

That creates the possibility of the first so-called 鈥渞ed-red-green鈥� national government of the Social Democrats, the left-wing Die Linke Party and the Green Party. Die Linke and the Greens are both polling at around 8%. Such an alliance currently runs several major cities, including Berlin. It would not be an entirely comfortable united front: The Social Democrats and the Greens are pro-EU, while Die Linke is highly critical of the organization.

But there is a model out there that gives hope. Portugal is currently run by a three-party center-left to left alliance. Those parties also disagree on things like the EU, the debt and membership to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but for the time being they鈥檝e decided that stimulating the economy and easing the burden of almost a decade of austerity trumps the disagreements.

An Italian Wild Card

And then there are the Italians. While Italy hasn鈥檛 scheduled elections, the defeat of a constitutional referendum supported by Democratic Party leader and then-Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in December 2016 almost guarantees a vote sometime in the next six months.

Italy has one of the more dysfunctional economies in the EU, with one of the union鈥檚 highest聽聽and several major banks in deep trouble. It鈥檚 the EU鈥檚 third largest economy, but growth is anemic and unemployment stubbornly high, particularly among the young.

Renzi鈥檚 center-left Democratic Party still tops the polls, but only just, and it鈥檚 fallen nearly 15 points in two years. Nipping at its heels is the somewhat bizarre Five Star Party run by comedian Beppe Grillo, whose politics are, well, odd.

Five Star is strongly opposed to the EU, and allies itself with several聽聽in the European Parliament. It applauded the election of US President Donald Trump. On the other hand, it has a platform with many progressive planks, including economic stimulation, increased social services, a聽聽for poor Italians and government transparency. It is also critical of NATO.

Five Star has recently taken a few poll hits, because the party鈥檚 mayor of Rome has done a poor job keeping the big, sprawling city running鈥攊n truth, even the ancient Romans found it a daunting task鈥攁nd is caught up in a financial scandal. Some Democratic Party leaders are also being investigated for corruption.

The only other major parties in the mix are former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi鈥檚 center-right Forza Italia, which is polling around 13%, and the racist, xenophobic Northern League at 11.5%.

The latter, which is based the northern Po Valley, made a recent effort to broaden its base by taking its campaign to Naples in southern Italy. The result was聽, with protesters tossing rocks, bottles and Molotov cocktails at Northern League leader Matteo Salvini.

There are informal talks going on about uniting the two right-wing parties. Berlusconi has worked with the Northern League in the past.

There are also a gaggle of smaller parties in the parliament, ranging from the Left Ecology/Greens to the Brothers of Italy, none registering over 5%. But since whoever comes out on top will need to form a coalition, even small parties will likely punch above their weight.

If Five Star does come in first and patches together a government, it will press for a referendum on the EU, and there is no guarantee that Italians鈥攂attered by the austerity policies of the big trade group鈥攚on鈥檛 decide to bail like the British did. An Italexit would probably be a fatal blow to the EU.

Europe鈥檚 Choice

Predicting election outcomes is tricky these days鈥攖he Brexit referendum and the election of Trump being cases in point.

The most volatile of the upcoming ballots are in France and Italy. Germany鈥檚 will certainly be important, but even if Merkel survives, the center-right will be much diminished and the left stronger. And that will have EU-wide implications.

The European left is divided, but not all divisions are unhealthy, and a robust debate is not a bad thing.

None of the problems Europe faces are simple. Is the EU salvageable? What are the alternatives to austerity? How do you tackle growing inequality and the marginalization of whole sections of society? How do you avoid the debt trap facing many countries, blocked by the EU鈥檚 economic strictures from pursuing any strategy other than more austerity?

In a recent interview, Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister and one of the founders of the left organization DiEM25, proposed a 鈥淣ew Deal鈥� for Europe, where in 鈥淎ll Europeans should enjoy in their home country the right to a job paying a living wage, decent housing, high-quality health care and education, and a clean environment.鈥�

The New Deal has five goals that Varoufakis argues can be accomplished under the EU鈥檚 current rules and without centering more power in Brussels at the expense of democracy and sovereignty. These would include 鈥渓arge-scale鈥� investment in green technology, guaranteed employment with a living wage, an EU-wide anti-poverty fund, a universal basic income and anti-eviction protections for the vulnerable.

None of those goals will be easy to achieve, but neither can Europe continue on its current path. The right-wing 鈥減opulists鈥� may lose an election, but they aren鈥檛 going away.

Almost 40 years ago, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher launched her conservative assault on trade union rights, health care, education and social services with the slogan, 鈥淭here is no alternative.鈥� The world is still harvesting the bitter fruits of those years and the tides of hatred and anger they unleashed. It is what put Trump into the Oval Office and Le Pen within smelling distance of the French presidency.

But there is an alternative, and it starts with the simple idea of the greatest good to the greatest number.

*[This article was originally published by .]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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