51吃瓜

It is unlikely that recent developments in Catalonia will have an impact on the territorial organization of Spain.

Politicians in Madrid and citizens all over Spain accept the fact that Catalonia鈥檚 dream is to become an independent republic. However, nobody thought that the pro-independence coalition would go so far as to make its recent (and reckless) attempt to declare unilateral separation. Catalonia’s regional president, Carles Puigdemont, completely ignored both the signals of cooperation coming from Moncloa (Spain’s central government) and the rulings of the Spanish Constitutional Court. As a result, Catalonia has seen its autonomy suspended and most of its leadership imprisoned.

To further complicate matters, thousands of companies have moved their headquarters from the region, Spaniards are boycotting Catalan products, and .

Spain has faced numerous crises over the past decade. The deep economic and financial crisis of 2008 was followed in quick succession by the anti-austerity Indignados movement in 2011, multiple corruption scandals at both central and regional levels, and a year-long process of forming a stable government in 2016. Conversely, a (CIS), a Madrid-based pollster, found that Catalan independence ranks second (29%) among Spain鈥檚 three top problems, behind unemployment (66.2%) and just ahead of corruption and fraud (28.3%).

Accordingly, the recent crisis over the Catalan question following its illegal referendum and non-binding declaration of independence is another symptom of the country鈥檚 wider problems. The crisis also underpins a complex clash of democratic legitimacies, where inter-periphery tensions constitute a permanent feature of Spain鈥檚 political landscape. This is amply demonstrated by the findings of . While the overwhelming majority of respondents want Catalonia to gain more autonomy from Madrid (64.6%), many are also in favor of remaining part of (49.3%), rather than separating from, Spain (40.2%). Not to mention the fact that many Spaniards from Valencia, Galicia or Andalucia would also like to have a greater say on the future of their country. Indeed, the 1978 Spanish Constitution states that sovereignty resides with its people, which, in turn, implies that all Spaniards would have to agree on letting Catalonia leave the union.

Operation Dialogue

That said, separatism in Catalonia is partly rooted in its culture and history. While the region has never been , it nevertheless retains a strong regional identity and its own language, and was not fully incorporated into Spain until the early 18th century. In more recent times, nationalist parties have contributed to Spanish governance (1977-2012) and signed up to the constitution. However, mutual mistrust between the regional and central government has intensified, especially since the last economic crisis hit Spain. Madrid鈥檚 response left the majority of Catalans unhappy and feeling that Spain simply takes too much of their money.

The mobilization of nationalist sentiment and civil society gathered further momentum in 2010, following the Constitutional Court鈥檚 decision to partially outlaw the , which was approved both by a local referendum and the central government. While reviewing the statute, which defines the scope of self-government within the Spanish state, the court decided that promoting Catalan as the region’s main official language and calling Catalonia a nation violates the Spanish Constitution. What followed was years of inactivity on both sides to ease tensions. It鈥檚 hardly surprising, therefore, that the “” launched by Mariano Rajoy鈥檚 government in 2016, which consisted of frequent visits by the deputy prime minister to Barcelona and a promise of 鈧�4.2 billion in infrastructural investment by 2020, was destined to fail.

It is unlikely that recent developments in Catalonia will have an impact on the territorial organization of Spain, as it will most probably remain part of the kingdom for several reasons. First, secessionist parties have failed so far to win a clear majority in the Catalan Parliament, and many Catalans remain wary of independence. This feeds into the second point that support for independence may be crumbling. Prior to recent events, the ousted regional government failed to deliver on a key promise made to the Catalan people: a binding and effective referendum with legal guarantees. Moreover, even though the Catalan government claimed to have the required legitimacy, . Additionally, some high-profile secessionists have recently downplayed their enthusiasm for independence; these include former regional President

It should also be pointed out that Catalonia鈥檚 political parties were very quick to accept the new reality of Article 155 that removed the incumbent Catalan government and called for regional elections. Finally, world leaders are hardly falling over themselves to welcome Catalonia into the international fold, with the exception of Venezuela. As the European Commission was quick to point out, even if a referendum were to be organized in line with Spain鈥檚 Constitution, it would mean that an independent Catalonia would fall into the so-called 鈥溾�� and find itself outside of the European Union.

Whichever Scenario

The upcoming regional elections to be held on December 21 will be key in determining the future political landscape of both Catalonia and Spain. Recent polls suggest that (52%) in Parliament with the pro-independence Esquerra Republicana being the largest party (27%). It鈥檚 a scenario that should inspire both sides of the independence debate to moderate their positions and become constructive coalition partners. Smooth cooperation at the regional level would also vastly improve relations with Moncloa. This 鈥渘ew beginning鈥� would not lead to a review of the Spanish Constitution, which could address the steps of a potential secession by Catalonia, but it could result in Catalonia being granted even more autonomy.

At the end of September, Spain鈥檚 government said it was willing to discuss if the region backed down from its demands for independence.鈥� Back then the offer was not accepted, but it means that there is a room for maneuver on both sides. On the other hand, if the pro-independence movement does the unlikely and wins big on December 21, it will have a strong enough mandate to negotiate with Madrid for a countrywide, binding and effective referendum with legal guarantees. What will then follow is discussions regarding constitutional amendments that pave the way for secession.

Whichever scenario becomes reality, Madrid and Barcelona must stop blaming each other and restart genuine cooperation. Christmas would be the ideal time for Moncloa to begin a meaningful dialogue on all levels of society, taking care to include Spain鈥檚 youth, representatives from the nonprofit sector, businesses, finance and academia. Only by erasing misunderstandings and ignorance on both sides will it be possible to turn the current negative dynamics into a positive and forward-looking development for all Spaniards, the region and the EU.

*[This article was updated on November 21, 2017.]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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