51吃瓜

With North Korea, the doomsday clock inches ever closer to midnight.

On July 22, General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, publicly announced that North Korea鈥檚 has matured to the point that Pyongyang can now launch a 鈥渓imited missile attack鈥� against the United States, rendering the prospect of conflict not 鈥渦nimaginable.鈥� His remarks came on the back of another startling revelation that shows just how dangerous the crisis has become. At the Aspen Security Forum, where Dunford also spoke, CIA chief Mike Pompeo openly hinted that the Trump administration is actively exploring 鈥溾�� options. The world, all consumed with the scandals engulfing the White House, now faces the very real possibility of sleepwalking into a nuclear conflict with North Korea. And the battle lines are already drawn.

In spite of repeated vows to work together with the US on stopping the Kim Jong-un regime鈥檚 nuclear program, China has done next to nothing 鈥� other than issuing boilerplate statements about doing 鈥渆verything鈥� to prevent conflict from breaking out. China has traditionally been unwilling to impose harsher economic sanctions on Pyongyang. At present, China is by far North Korea鈥檚 largest trading partner, making up more than . According to South Korean government estimates, in 2015 China received $2.5 billion-worth of North Korean exports, not counting the across the Yalu River along the Chinese border.

This may come as a surprise since the Sino-North Korean relationship has been souring in recent times, as Pyongyang has become an increasingly petulant neighbor. The Kim regime has come to pose both a nuclear and , while being actively involved in to the value of millions of dollars each year. In May, North Korea broke a longstanding taboo when it attacked China over media stories pressing for enhanced sanctions, even going so far as to Beijing with 鈥済rave consequences鈥� unless the reports subsided.

Even if China has the power to bring North Korea to its knees, it would cause the Kim regime to collapse and pave the way for a reunification of the Korean Peninsula under Seoul鈥檚 leadership 鈥� a nightmare scenario for the Chinese leadership.

And to top off this kerfuffle, Russia has also decided to step into the arena. Moscow and Pyongyang have taken steps to as Sino-DPRK relations deteriorate. Ready to fill the void amid the nuclear standoff, (UNSC) statement condemning North Korean missile tests, and even calling for renewed sanctions on Pyongyang. Beyond having Kim鈥檚 back in the UN, Russia has massively boosted its trade with the Hermit Kingdom by a the first two months of 2017 alone.

Already sharing a long history of ideological and economic ties, recent projects point to even closer relations between Russia and North Korea. Earlier this year, a opened between North Korea鈥檚 Rajin and Vladivostok in Russia鈥檚 far east. Furthermore, Russian military hardware has been to the border with North Korea, though Russia was quick to shoot down criticism by citing 鈥渞outine鈥� military exercises. Russia may never entirely replace China鈥檚 influence over North Korea, but much like Beijing, it is in Moscow鈥檚 best interest to maintain the North as a buffer state. By laying the groundwork for stronger ties with North Korea, Russia is now able to on the peninsula.

NEWS FROM SOUTH KOREA

North Korea鈥檚 diplomatic offensive doesn鈥檛 stop there. The plot twist comes from hitherto one of Washington鈥檚 closest allies: South Korea. Freshly-minted President Moon Jae-in is on the verge of reversing Seoul鈥檚 Pyongyang policy by embracing a more amicable approach to North Korea. Favoring a with a heavy emphasis on pursuing dialogue, Moon has sought to demonstrate his goodwill straight away. In May, the first inter-Korean civilian exchange since the start of 2016, after relations were put on hold following Pyongyang鈥檚 fourth nuclear test. As winter approaches, to North Korea are bound to increase, and Moon鈥檚 olive branch shows no sign of wavering.

That Moon鈥檚 Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK) would try to cozy up to Pyongyang is not entirely unexpected. The party has not been shy to about North Korea鈥檚 nuclear program, and some MPK elements remain overly sympathetic to the north, perhaps including Moon himself, whose on abstaining from the 2007 UN resolution on the DPRK鈥檚 human rights abuses is well documented.

But the most dangerous aspect of this d茅tente comes from the fact that Moon is ready to allow Pyongyang to drive a wedge between South Korea and Japan. The president鈥檚 of the struck with Japan mirrors Pyongyang鈥檚 criticisms and speaks to a worrisome lack of strategic foresight that is playing into North Korea鈥檚 cards.

The historic comfort women agreement was considered a landmark deal to lay an old issue to rest. After grinding negotiations that even saw the US mediator, Ambassador Mark Lippert, attacked by a , Japan agreed to set up a fund worth ($8.3 million) for comfort women and issued an apology. However, Pyongyang was quick to call the accord 鈥�,鈥� and has since attempted to undermine South Korea鈥檚 alliances with Tokyo. On July 19, the South Korean the establishment of a task force to re-examine the accord, in what is the following months of controversy that saw the of Japan鈥檚 ambassador to South Korea earlier this year.

The global failure to discourage North Korea鈥檚 nuclear program speaks volumes about the state of the anti-North Korea coalition. With the clock ticking, it is more important than ever that South Korea boosts cooperation with Japan and cements the alliance with the US. But with China and Russia actively bolstering the Kim regime, and with Seoul wavering, it鈥檚 no wonder that talk of war on the Korean Peninsula is rife.

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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