51吃瓜

US-China cooperation and a coherent strategy are necessary to roll聽back the聽nuclear ambitions of North Korea.

In response to North Korea鈥檚 fifth nuclear test in September, Chinese and American diplomats are , according to sources at the United Nations Security Council. This new effort to tighten sanctions will reportedly target Pyongyang鈥檚 ability to trade coal, iron ore and crude oil.

As North Korea鈥檚 only friendly neighbor and primary trading partner, China鈥檚 cooperation is key to establishing effective sanctions. Beijing is faced with a delicate balancing act, working to prevent a total collapse in North Korea, for humanitarian reasons, and also to avoid a potential Korean unification under American guidance.

However, continued North Korean belligerence has been taking a toll on its tenuous friendship with China. The nation鈥檚 stubborn refusal to halt advancement of its nuclear program has proved frustrating to China, leading China to with the United States and others. Pyongyang鈥檚 recent that it would聽use nuclear weapons if threatened聽should act as a catalyst to further US-China cooperation.

Unlike his father, who frequently visited China to ask for assistance during his last years, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has not visited once since taking over in 2012. China鈥檚 apparent support of possible Security Council sanctions may indicate a broader , and perhaps even a new willingness for China to consider dealing with the political and humanitarian fallout of a North Korean collapse. This shift has also established new common ground between the United States and China.

Collapse of North Korea

Despite what some might think, a total North Korean collapse would be incredibly problematic for the US as well, since the country鈥檚 nuclear arsenal would need to be urgently secured in order to prevent it from falling into the wrong hands. Terrorist groups have attempted at least six times to steal nuclear weapons from Pakistan, a country with a poor security record but one that is still better than the chaos that would follow from Pyongyang鈥檚 collapse.

What鈥檚 more, the regime could even founder from centripetal forces, as the country is , a cholera outbreak and dwindling agricultural production. Even without external sanctions, North Korea could unravel, presenting .

On the other hand, while the North Korean wagon is hurtling toward collapse, it will take others down with it if left unchecked. The country has deployed both 鈥渉ard鈥� and 鈥渟oft鈥� power tactics to strengthen its aggressive posture against the rest of the world.

In terms of 鈥渉ard鈥� power, US think tanks have to develop 100 nuclear weapons by 2020. have uncovered evidence that North Korea could be constructing a nuclear submarine, increasing its ability to launch such attacks covertly and retain second-strike capability.

In September, North Korea聽. Pyongyang’s arsenal is , some of which may soon be capable of reaching the continental US. The inability of the United States to prevent this proliferation has led East Asian allies such as Japan and South Korea to question whether the US “nuclear umbrella” provides adequate security from North Korean belligerence.

North Korea also has employed 鈥渟oft鈥� power as leverage, using the nuclear threat to secure continued , while maintaining its narrative of resistance to the 鈥渋mperial鈥� West. Pyongyang聽has recently taken advantage of discord between US allies, especially after Washington facilitated a to the 鈥渃omfort women鈥� issue between Japan and South Korea in 2015. The deal, which included an official apology from Tokyo and established a fund for survivors, was intended to provide closure to tensions that have persisted since the end of World War II.

However, to prevent increased cooperation between US allies, North Korea has and prevent reconciliation. The Pyongyang government decried the deal a 鈥渉umiliating agreement鈥� for South Korea, and a South Korean nationalist group with alleged ties to North Korea has rallied anti-Japan sentiment there by demanding the agreement be canceled.

Well aware of the potential a united regional front against it could have, North Korea has taken every opportunity to use psychological warfare against the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) countries to prevent the formation of a more united front. North Korea will stop at nothing in its efforts to divide US聽allies in Asia.

The Next US President and Pyongyang

Cooperation between US allies in northeast Asia is, therefore, the key to countering threats and escalation on the part of Pyongyang. Much of that ability will depend on the next US administration, which is to be elected in November.

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[add-subscribe-form-320] Republican nominee Donald Trump鈥檚 campaign has pointed to a withdrawal from the region, calling the defense of Japan by US forces for the US, a decision that 聽 He also implied that both Japan and South Korea would be 鈥渂etter off鈥� if they had their own nukes鈥攄isregarding the fact that it would spark a global arms race with bleak consequences. Trump鈥檚 policy proposals add an element of unpredictability to a situation with an already high potential for trouble.

With North Korea taking advantage of tensions between allies, what is needed is a cautious and diplomatic approach to bring together these nations. Furthermore, the US must secure Chinese cooperation, which has proven elusive in the past.

Only cooperation and a coherent strategy can roll back North Korea鈥檚 nuclear ambitions. A Trump administration is grossly unfit for the task.

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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