51吃瓜

China may bully its neighbors, but turning foreign territorial disputes into a superpower conflict between nuclear-armed rivals would be a huge mistake.

In his January 13 testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, secretary of state nominee Rex Tillerson made an聽聽concerning China鈥檚 activities in the hotly disputed South China Sea. The United States, he said, must 鈥渟end a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops,鈥� adding that Beijing鈥檚 鈥渁ccess to those islands is not going to be allowed.鈥� Donald Trump鈥檚 press secretary, Sean Spicer, repeated the threat on January 24.

Sometimes it鈥檚 hard to sift the real from the magical in the Trump administration, and bombast appears to be the default strategy of the day. But people should be clear about what would happen if the US actually tries to blockade China from supplying its forces constructing airfields and radar facilities on the Spratly and Paracel islands. It would be an act of war.

While Beijing鈥檚 Foreign Ministry initially reacted cautiously to the comment, Chinese newspapers have been far聽. The nationalist聽Global Times聽warned of a 鈥渓arge-scale war鈥� if the US followed through on its threat, and the聽China Daily聽cautioned that a blockade could lead to a 鈥渄evastating confrontation between China and the U.S.鈥�

Independent observers agree. 鈥淚t is very difficult to imagine the means by which the United States could prevent China from accessing these artificial islands without provoking some kind of confrontation,鈥� says聽, head of Australia鈥檚 National Security College. And such a confrontation, says Carlyle Thayer of the University of New South Wales, 鈥渃ould quickly develop into an armed conflict.鈥�

Last summer, China鈥檚 commander of the People鈥檚 Liberation Army Navy,聽, told US Admiral John Richardson that 鈥渨e will never stop our construction on the Nansha Islands halfway.鈥� Nansha is China鈥檚 name for the Spratlys. Two weeks later,聽, China鈥檚 defense minister said Beijing is preparing for a 鈥減eople鈥檚 war at sea.鈥�

The Roots of China鈥檚 Anxiety

A certain amount of this is posturing by two powerful countries in competition for markets and influence, but Tillerson鈥檚 statement didn鈥檛 come out of the blue.

In fact, the US is in the middle of a major military buildup鈥攖he Obama administration鈥檚 鈥淎sia Pivot鈥� in the Pacific. American bases in Okinawa, Japan, and Guam have been beefed up, and for the first time since World War II, US Marines have been deployed in Australia. In March 2016, the US sent聽聽nuclear-capable strategic stealth bombers to join them.

There is no question that China has been aggressive about claiming sovereignty over small islands and reefs in the South China Sea, even after the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague rejected Beijing鈥檚 claims. But if a military confrontation is to be avoided, it鈥檚 important to try to understand what鈥檚 behind China鈥檚 behavior.

The current crisis has its roots in a tense standoff between Beijing and Taiwan in late 1996. China was angered that Washington had granted a visa to Taiwan鈥檚 president, Lee Teng-hui, calling it a violation of the 1979 US 鈥淥ne China鈥� policy that recognized Beijing and downgraded relations with Taiwan to 鈥渦nofficial.鈥�

Beijing responded to the visa uproar by firing missiles near a small Taiwan-controlled island and moving some military forces up to the mainland coast facing the island. However, there was never any danger that China would actually attack Taiwan. Even if it wanted to, it didn鈥檛 have the means to do so.

Instead of letting things cool off, however, the Clinton administration escalated the conflict and sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to the region, the USS Nimitz and USS Independence. The Nimitz and its escorts sailed through the Taiwan Straits between the island and the mainland, and there was nothing that China could do about it.

The carriers deeply alarmed Beijing, because the regions just north of Taiwan in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea were the jumping off points for 19^th聽and 20^th聽century invasions by Western colonialists and the Japanese.

The straits crisis led to a radical remaking of China鈥檚 military, which had long relied on massive land forces. Instead, China adopted a strategy called 鈥淎rea Denial鈥� that would allow Beijing to control the waters surrounding its coast, in particular the East and South China seas. That not only required retooling of its armed forces鈥攆rom land armies to naval and air power鈥攊t required a ring of bases that would keep potential enemies at arm鈥檚 length and also allow Chinese submarines to enter the Pacific and Indian oceans undetected.

Reaching from Russia鈥檚 Kamchatka Peninsula in the north to the Malay Peninsula in the south, this so-called 鈥渇irst island chain鈥� is Beijing鈥檚 primary defense line.

China is particularly vulnerable to a naval blockade. Some 80% of its energy supplies traverse the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, moving through narrow choke points like the Malacca Straits between Indonesia and Malaysia, the Bab al Mandab Straits controlling the Red Sea, and the Straits of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. All of those passages are controlled by the US or countries like India and Indonesia with聽close ties聽to Washington.

In 2013, China claimed it had historic rights to the region and issued its now famous 鈥渘ine-dash line鈥� map that embraced the Paracel and Spratly island chains鈥攁nd 85% of the South China Sea. It was this nine-dash line that The Hague tribunal rejected, because it found no historical basis for China鈥檚 claim, and because there were overlapping assertions by Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines.

There are, of course, economic considerations as well. The region is rich in oil, gas and fish, but the primary concern for China is security. The Chinese haven鈥檛 interfered with commercial ship traffic in the territory they claim, although they鈥檝e applied on-again, off-again restrictions on fishing and energy explorations. China initially prevented Filipino fishermen from exploiting some reefs, and then allowed it. It鈥檚 been more aggressive with Vietnam in the Paracels.

Stirring the Pot

Rather than trying to assuage China鈥檚 paranoia, the US made things worse by adopting a military strategy to checkmate 鈥淎rea Denial.鈥� Called聽鈥溾�濃�攍ater renamed 鈥淛oint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons鈥濃�攊t envisions attacking China鈥檚 navy, air force, radar facilities and command centers with air and naval power. Missiles would be used to take out targets deep into Chinese territory.

China鈥檚 recent seizure of a US underwater drone off the Philippines is part of an ongoing chess game in the region. The drone was almost certainly mapping sea floor bottoms and collecting data that would allow the US to track聽, including those armed with nuclear missiles. While the heist was a provocative thing to do鈥攊t was seized right under the nose of an unarmed US Navy ship鈥攊t鈥檚 a reflection of how nervous the Chinese are about their vulnerability to Air/Sea Battle.

China鈥檚 leaders 鈥渉ave good reason to worry about this emerging U.S. naval strategy [use of undersea drones] against China in East Asia,鈥� Li Mingjiang, a China expert at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, told the聽. 鈥淚f this strategy becomes reality, it could be quite detrimental to China鈥檚 national security.鈥�

Washington charges that the Chinese are playing the bully with small countries like Vietnam and the Philippines, and there is some truth to that charge. China has been throwing its weight around with several nations in Southeast Asia. But it also true that the Chinese have a lot of evidence that the Americans are gunning for them.

The US has some聽聽surrounding China and is deploying anti-ballistic missiles in South Korea and Japan, ostensibly to guard against North Korean nuclear weapons. But the interceptors could also down Chinese missiles, posing a threat to Beijing鈥檚 nuclear deterrence.

While Air/Sea Battle does not envision using nuclear weapons, it could still lead to a nuclear war. It would be very difficult to figure out whether missiles were targeting command centers or China鈥檚 nukes. Under the stricture 鈥渦se them or lose them,鈥� the Chinese might fear their missiles were endangered and launch them. The last thing one wants to do with a nuclear-armed power is make it guess.

Superpower Conflict

The Trump administration has opened a broad front on China, questioning the 鈥淥ne China鈥� policy, accusing Beijing of being in cahoots with Islamic terrorists and threatening a trade war.

The first would upend more than 30 years of diplomacy, the second is聽鈥攊f anything, China is overly aggressive in suppressing terrorism in its western Xinjiang Province鈥攁nd the third makes no sense.

China is America鈥檚 major trading partner and holds $1.24 trillion in US treasury bonds. While Trump charges that the Chinese have hollowed out the American economy by undermining its industrial base with cheap labor and goods, China didn鈥檛 force Apple or General Motors to pull up stakes and decamp elsewhere. Capital goes where wages are low and unions are weak. A trade war would hurt China, but it would also聽聽and the global economy as well.

When Trump says he wants to make America great again, what he really means is that he wants to go back to that post-World War II period when the US dominated much of the globe with a combination of economic strength and military power. But that era is gone, and dreams of a unipolar world run by Washington are a hallucination.

According to聽the (CIA), 鈥渂y 2030 Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power based on GDP [gross domestic product], population size, military spending and technological investments.鈥� By 2025, two-thirds of the world will live in Asia, 7% in Europe and 5% in the US. Those are the demographics of eclipse.

If Trump starts a trade war, he will find little support among America鈥檚 allies. China is the number one trading partner for Japan, Australia, South Korea, Vietnam and India, and the third largest for Indonesia and the Philippines. Over the past year, a number of countries like Thailand,聽 and the聽聽have also distanced themselves from Washington and moved closer to China. When President Barack Obama tried to get US allies not to sign on to China鈥檚 new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, they聽.

But the decline of US influence has a dangerous side. Washington may not be able to dictate the world鈥檚 economy, but it has immense military power. Chinese military expert聽聽says 鈥淐hina does not stir up troubles, but we are not afraid of them when they come.鈥�

They should be. For all its modernization, China is no match for the US. However, defeating China is far beyond Washington鈥檚 capacity. The only wars the US has 鈥渨on鈥� since 1945 are Grenada and Panama.

Nonetheless, such a clash would be catastrophic. It would torpedo global trade, inflict trillions of dollars of damage on each side, and the odds are distressingly high that the war could go nuclear.

US allies in the region should demand that the Trump administration back off any consideration of a blockade. Australia has already told Washington it will not take part in any such action. The US should also do more than rename Air/Sea Battle鈥攊t should junk the entire strategy. The East and South China seas are not聽聽for the US, but they are for China.

And China should realize that, while it has the right to security, trotting out ancient dynastic maps to lay claim to vast areas bordering scores of countries does nothing but alienate its neighbors, and give the US an excuse to interfere in affairs thousands of miles from its own territory.

*[This article was originally published by .]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

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