51吃瓜

In spite of its dismal record, the majority of black South Africans will most likely support the African National Congress (ANC) when the general election is held later this year. The ANC’s record is one of failure: a failure to provide jobs (about 60% of the country’s youth are unemployed), of failing to keep the lights on or even water flowing out of taps in parts of the country and of failing to curb corruption. Sadly, corruption in ANC-ruled South Africa has become pervasive and endemic.

Who can forget that Jacob Zuma, the former president, faces of corruption, fraud, money-laundering and racketeering charges but is yet to be tried in court? Instead, the ANC has finally this week that the party lied to parliament when it described a publicly-funded swimming pool at Zuma鈥檚 private villa as a 鈥渇ire pool鈥� installed as a safety feature!

This year鈥檚 election will be tougher for the ANC than the earlier ones. Most recent shows that the party will get fewer than 50% of the votes. In South Africa鈥檚 proportional representation system, this means that the ANC will have to look for allies to continue governing. One outlier poll suggests that the ANC鈥檚 vote share would fall to . 

Rural realities and why the ANC pitch resonates

The black African population, upon which the ANC relies, still turns out and votes for the party, particularly in the rural areas. Under apartheid, the countryside, termed 鈥渉omelands鈥� or 鈥淏antustans鈥� were dumping grounds for black Africans. They could only legally leave these arrears if they could get one of the rare tightly-controlled permits. Today no such restrictions apply and there has been a migration to the cities. Yet the rural areas are still home to a third of the . 

It is here that the people still vote for the ANC in huge numbers. They have not forgotten the party that led the fight to liberate them from apartheid. The ANC-led government also brought electricity to remote areas of the country, built homes across hillsides and, above all, provided them with social security benefits. Entire families, often unable to find work, came to rely on the small, but vital payments to family members who are disabled or retired. 

The maximum monthly stands at 2 090 rand per month. That is just $122, but it keeps whole families from destitution. Maintaining this pension is vital and the ANC understands this well.

When elections come around, the ANC plays to all its strengths. The party still derives legitimacy from its decades-long opposition to the apartheid government and its previous great leaders, especially Nelson Mandela. However, the ANC鈥檚 primary appeal is simple: it warns the poor that they will lose their social security if another party comes to power. This is untrue but truth no longer matters to the ANC in its pursuit of power.

The ANC has employed this cynical tactic over several elections. A by the University of Johannesburg鈥檚 Centre for Social Development in Africa (CSDA) carried out in the run-up to the 2014 election indicated that just under half of voters were not aware that the social grants that they received were theirs by right. 

The centre鈥檚 director, Leila Patel, said the finding was “worrying” as it meant that these voters 鈥� 49% of the respondents 鈥� were not aware of their rights. The potential for political abuse is large, given that just under 16-million grant beneficiaries are receiving social grants amounting to R121bn this year. Agriculture MEC [Member of the Executive Council 鈥� provincial Minister] in KwaZulu-Natal, Meshack Radebe, for example, said in April that “those who receive grants and are voting for the opposition are stealing from the government”. He said that those who voted for another party should “stay away from the grant”, as if social grants were gifts from the ruling party. In fact, these grants are funded by taxes in order for the government to meet its constitutional obligation to provide social protection.

Summarising , Professor Yoland Sadie described the role of social grants in deciding voter behaviour as important, possibly decisive.  

鈥�social grants can provide an incentive for people to vote for the ANC, since a large proportion of grant-holders who support the party do not think that 鈥渢hey will continue receiving the grant when a new party comes to power.鈥� A majority of respondents also agreed 鈥榯hat they would vote for a party that provides social grants鈥�. Therefore, in a situation where one party has dominated the electoral scene for such a long time, and without having the experience of other parties being in power, it is difficult for voters to 鈥榢now鈥� whether these benefits will continue under a different party in power 鈥� particularly if the official opposition has the legacy of being a 鈥淲hite鈥� party.

Opposition tactics in 2024

The electorate has no shortage of parties to choose from in these elections. There will be more than 100 new political parties on the ballot, including ActionSA, the Patriotic Alliance, Rise Mzanzi. For the official opposition, the Democratic Alliance [DA], this will pose a challenge. The DA has its roots in the white, Progressive Party. For many years it fought apartheid with its sole Member of Parliament, putting up doughty resistance to racist legislation. Bitterly attacked by the government for her stand, she won widespread international appreciation for her performance from 1961-1974.

Since the end of apartheid, the DA has gone through several leaders, some of them black. Today is leader of the party and, officially, of the opposition. As a white politician he can (and is) dismissed as representing an ethnic minority. 

The DA has made no secret that it is organising a coalition of opposition parties to challenge the ANC. What Steenhuisen calls the 鈥渕oonshot pact.鈥�  The ANC has used this to suggest to the electorate that, if elected, the DA will return to the policies of apartheid. ANC national chairperson Gwede Mantashe hinted as much when he Steenhuisen of organising 鈥渁partheid parties鈥� to remove the ANC from power. 鈥淪teenhuisen is trying the impossible. He鈥檚 trying to organise all apartheid parties and parties of Bantustans to form a group that will defeat the ANC,鈥� Mantashe said.

To resist these allegations the DA has now hit back. It is targeting the issue of benefits and grants, using a Tweet.

Steenhuisen is making a well targeted pitch. All South Africans know that their electricity supply has collapsed, the police seldom answer calls for help and unemployment has hit families hard. Will this pitch erode the ANC vote among key constituencies, including the rural communities? It is too early to tell.

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.