51吃瓜

Will there be a peaceful transition of power in The Gambia?

It鈥檚 clear that聽Adama Barrow, the president-elect of The Gambia, has the support of most African nations and the wider international community. His inauguration鈥攕cheduled for January 19鈥攎arks a watershed moment for the Gambian people and the nation鈥檚 democratic future, one that some see as a harbinger of hope for other African nations too.

There鈥檚 just one problem: The Gambia鈥檚 outgoing president, Yahya Jammeh, won鈥檛 leave.

Barrow attended the 2017 Africa-France Summit in Mali on January 14, where he had the chance to provide an update on the Gambian impasse to more than 30 African heads of state, primarily from Francophone nations. He left Banjul with the unsuccessful Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) mediation team, led by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari, who had hoped to persuade Jammeh to honor the vote for the second time. “We have made a strong gesture. First, we have received the president,” Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita , referring to Barrow, who was an unexpected but welcome summit guest.

much of the summit’s focus was on Barrow鈥檚 tiny West African nation, and leaders expressed hope that Jammeh will at last step aside in a peaceful transition, avoiding what Keita called a bloodbath. They have been waiting for Jammeh to do so since December 1, 2016, when The Gambia held elections that gave Barrow the win with 43.3% of the vote. At first, the incumbent president conceded the loss and affirmed the will of the Gambian people, but it wasn鈥檛 long until Jammeh, who has ruled for over 22 years, reversed course and refused to accept the results, demanding a re-run.

Declaration of War

In the meantime, Alieu Momarr Njai, the head of the Gambian Independent Electoral Commission, went from praising Jammeh鈥檚 stepping down as a rare moment in the history of Gambian politics, to in neighboring Senegal, fearing for his life. Gambian diplomats abroad were recalled, with one in the United States that he too feared for his safety and wasn鈥檛 planning on returning until he had considered all of the developments.

Faced with the chaos, Gambian military leaders shrugged and said that Jammeh writes their checks, confirming to media outlets that they intended to take their orders from him, and thereby protect Jammeh as he demands a new election through courts that are themselves wholly dysfunctional and incapable of doing so .

The jubilation of political prisoners released in the immediate wake of Jammeh鈥檚 defeat was stilled as new rounds of arrests began. Barrow鈥檚 promise of a free and open society was put on hold, while Jammeh shut down at least three radio stations and silenced voices opposed to his grip on power. The misty-eyed exiles living in the diaspora who dream聽of returning home had to put their hopes聽on pause once more.

Meanwhile, the iron-fisted Jammeh twice went on state-owned television to condemn ECOWAS mediators and challenged those seeking to put an end to his regime. 鈥淲ho are they to tell me to leave my country?鈥� Jammeh asked during while on New Year鈥檚 Eve he publicly warned that the threat of any ECOWAS military intervention to ensure that Barrow is securely installed as the democratically elected president would be viewed as aggression.

鈥淒efending our sovereignty and total independence is a sacred duty of all patriotic Gambians,鈥� Jammeh said, vowing that there would be no compromise. 鈥淚t is in effect a declaration of war and an insult to our constitution,鈥� he聽 of the ECOWAS stance. 鈥淚t is therefore absolutely unacceptable.鈥�

Bloodletting and Instability

On January 13, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council met to discuss the political crisis in The聽Gambia and reiterated its聽support for ECOWAS authority on intervention. The AU statement commended ECOWAS decisions made at a December 17, 2016,聽 that include 鈥渢he consideration to use all necessary means to ensure the respect of the will of the people of The Gambia.鈥�

As important, however, is that as of January 19鈥攖he inauguration date of the legitimately-elected Barrow鈥攖he AU will no longer recognize Jammeh as the country’s president.

Multiple reports in recent days indicate that Nigeria has at least at the ready in the event that an emergency military intervention is necessary. Senegal, a nation whose border completely envelops The Gambia, is set to lead any if all diplomatic efforts prove unfruitful.

Instead of intervening militarily, some voices have argued for sanctions. 鈥淔rom Liberia to Sierra Leone, Cote D鈥橧voire, among others, West Africa has seen so much bloodletting and political instability,鈥� , former speaker of ECOWAS parliament and current deputy president of the senate.

鈥淲e must all acknowledge the fact that Gambia is a sovereign state,鈥� he said, warning this week against military action, adding that Gambian legal processes for challenging the election should first be allowed to proceed. 鈥淲e must take all necessary steps as a sub-region to steer the West African nation and indeed the entire community away from any looming bloodshed and monumental destruction.鈥�

Yet there鈥檚 still just one problem: The Gambia鈥檚 outgoing President Jammeh doesn鈥檛 seem like he鈥檚 going anywhere soon, and time is running out for him to finally put the peace and prosperity of his people above personal considerations.

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.

Photo Credit:聽