51吃瓜

Al-Shabab is no longer dominated by young nationalists, and its objectives have become blurred.

Background

Al-Shabab, a Somali militia, originated as a radical Islamist movement seeking to create a 鈥淕reater Somalia.鈥� In 2006, it became a militant wing of听厂辞尘补濒颈补鈥檚 Islamic Courts Union (ICU) to fight Christian-majority Ethiopian forces during the transitional government.听Ethiopia ousted the ICU and al-Shabab splintered off into the south, organizing suicide bombings and assaults on Ethiopian forces. This was a morphing period for the group, which created factions to become a territorial guerrilla movement. Today, al-Shabab is designated as a terrorist organization.

Though nationalist in origin, al-Shabab has widened听its scope. In June 2010, it听coordinated a suicide bombing that killed 74 people gathered to watch the FIFA World Cup 颈苍听碍补尘辫补濒补,听鲍驳补苍诲补. Al-Shabab has also been 辞蹿听丑别濒辫颈苍驳听Boko Haram听carry out operations in听Nigeria. Its听most significant transition occurred听in 2012, when it听听飞颈迟丑听al-Qaeda听as an affiliate cell. This move strengthened the听belief in听an international听jihad听尘辞惫别尘别苍迟.

Al-Shabab鈥檚 main opposition are 厂辞尘补濒颈补鈥檚 Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces, both backed by the United Nations. In a January 2009 attack on the TFG, al-Shabab 听three ministers. AMISOM has regularly sent forces to Somalia since the Uganda bombing, which raises belief that the former is defending the TFG. Al-Shabab has carried out attacks against AMISOM forces to combat this assistance.

Al-Shabab is by tithes, extortion and external donors. Its听economy flourished in 2008 after it听seized the port city of Kismayo, which enabled the group听to rake off听revenues from charcoal exportations. In October 2011, a Kenyan-led assault on Kismayo liberated the port of听al-Shabab fighters. This is believed to have taken away $35-50 million per year from听its听. However, al-Shabab still听makes considerable income through smuggling imported sugar into Kenya.

Why is Al-Shabab Relevant?

Recently, AMISOM forces were able to recapture many al-Shabab territories. This led to a drop in the group鈥檚 popularity and funding 鈥�听the听two pillars of a terrorist organization. These losses, along with reduced funds and recent infighting, have created an increasing听 of confidence听in Somali citizens to volunteer and donate to al-Shabab.

Al-Shabab is听funded听by tithes, extortion and external donors. Its听economy flourished in 2008 after it听seized the port city of Kismayo, which enabled the group听to rake off听revenues from charcoal exportations. In October 2011, a Kenyan-led assault on Kismayo liberated the port of听al-Shabab fighters. This is believed to have taken away $35-50 million per year from听its听revenue.听

International jihad, however, has helped recruit a different demographic. Under a听broad mission of waging a war against 鈥�,鈥澨� al-Shabab听is able to gain support for attacking foreigners. The group听has been able to recruit not just young Somali boys, but foreigners, young girls and even clan elders. Many Westerners have been recruited from places such as London and听Minnesota, raising fear of threats to the West. With more foreign support, al-Shabab鈥檚听existential threat is recognized on an international scale.

However, while the merger with al-Qaeda proved successful in helping adapt its听propaganda and recruitment strategies, some al-Shabab members want to听听on domestic issues rather than an 鈥渋nternational struggle.鈥� In 2013, leader Ahmed Abdi Godane created a faction to fight ideological opposition to al-Shabab’s听new mission. The attack on Nairobi鈥檚 Westgate shopping mall in September 2013 was seen as Godane听 his authority.

The question is whether听al-Shabab can emerge from these internal rifts into one coherent and nuanced ideology. This may prove to be the group鈥檚 main obstacle to survival.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜’s editorial policy.

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