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The stunning success of the Ukrainian armed forces in routing the Russian army from Kharkiv Oblast in the northeast of the country has already had a knock-on effect. On September 12, Azerbaijan launched the intensive of Armenian border positions.

In its lengthy and sometimes bloody confrontations with Azerbaijan, Armenia is backed by Moscow.  Azerbaijan is a of Ukraine. In Azerbaijan鈥檚 2020 war with Armenia, Turkish proved decisive. The Russian defeat has severely tarnished President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 image as a bold and pragmatic warrior. Does this mean T眉rkiye鈥檚 President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an will grab opportunities to advance his influence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the expense of the Russians?

Russia and T眉rkiye play the great game over Syria

Perhaps this question will most likely be answered in Syria. Russia and T眉rkiye pursued a 鈥渇renemy鈥� approach to the civil war. In the early years of the war, T眉rkiye heavily backed efforts to overthrow the Hafez al-Assad regime. Indeed, untilRussia鈥檚 intervention in 2015, T眉rkiye seemed to be headed to success in that venture.

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Putin鈥檚 decision to support Assad was dictated by fears of losing a longstanding ally and therefore influence in a key MENA state. The Russians also wanted to ensure key military assets 鈥� the naval base at Tartus and Khmeimim Airbase southeast of Latakia 鈥� remained in their hands. Russian air power decisively turned the war in Assad鈥檚 favor. 

A motley coalition beat back the dreaded ISIS. A key player in that coalition was Yek卯ney锚n Parastina Gel (YPG), a militia composed largely of Kurdish fighters. The Turks view the YPG as a front for Partiya Karker锚n Kurdistan (PKK), a militant Kurdish political organization and guerrilla movement. T眉rkiye views the PKK as a terrorist organization and it has long been a thorn in Erdo臒an鈥檚 side.

Erdo臒an鈥檚 solution to the rising power of the Kurds was to combine cross-border attacks on the PKK with a deal with Putin. T眉rkiye allowed Russia to use its air force to pummel Aleppo into submission, giving Assad a key win. What followed was a series of agreements that established mechanisms of control and the acknowledgement of spheres of influence within Syria. Assad was forced to halt his efforts to subjugate the last rebel stronghold of Idlib, even though the Russian air force continued to carry out aerial attacks on civilian targets within the enclave. 

This was an important concession for T眉rkiye. The Turks were then striving to both prevent an influx of refugees from a besieged Idlib as well as move at least some of the refugees in T眉rkiye back to Syria.

The formalized the situation in Idlib with the creation of a de-escalation zone including a demilitarized sector 15-20 kilometers deep. The Russians agreed that the Turks could keep their observation posts in Idlib. They committed to maintaining the status quo. In 2020 when violence flared again, this time between Turkish troops and Assad鈥檚 forces, the Russians and the Turks signed a ceasefire that included both of them jointly patrolling the M4 highway that runs East-West across Idlib.

Advantage Erdo臒an 

With Putin in a weakened position, Erdo臒an may choose to step up the tempo of attacks on the PKK while reinforcing the Turkish presence in its along Syria鈥檚 northern border. Earlier in the summer, he was Russia and Iran to back T眉rkiye鈥檚 further incursions into northwestern Syria. The Turkish president said:  鈥淲hat we expect from Iran and Russia is to support T眉rkiye in its fight against terrorist organisations.鈥� Erdo臒an may step up Turkish operations in Syria but knows that the Russians remain significant players and the steps T眉rkiye takes in Syria will have to keep the Russians in mind.

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Elsewhere in MENA, the Ukrainian offensive and the unfolding Russian catastrophe will give pause for thought among authoritarian leaders who have been fence-sitting about Putin鈥檚 invasion of a neighboring country. Authoritarians in the Gulf viewed the Russian president as a tough warrior. As Christopher Davidson said in our April 1 , they saw Putin as 鈥減repared to act upon a red line he鈥檚 already drawn鈥�willing to act militarily when needed.鈥� In contrast, these autocrats saw Western liberal democracies as weak. They saw the West鈥檚 efforts to employ economic sanctions and supply the Ukrainians with weapons to do the fighting, instead of intervening themselves, as a sign of fading power. The startling victories that Ukraine is achieving with Western-supplied weaponry turns this perception on its head.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi who has to maintain warm relations with Putin. Right now, he might be asking himself what happens if Putin falls. Libyan warlord might be asking himself the same question. He has profited from Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group supporting him. Meanwhile the Turks, who backed the internationally recognized government in Tripoli against Haftar will be toting up their gains and weighing up their next steps as the rout of the Russian army continues and the crisis for Putin deepens.

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The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.