51吃瓜

In 2016, I was working in Kampala when Donald Trump was elected president. The next morning, my Ugandan Military Intelligence colleagues, in a good-natured moment of painful wit, immediately offered me 鈥減olitical asylum.鈥� When Trump was re-elected nine months ago, I was staying at the H么tel M茅tropole in Hanoi, where Graham Greene had savored fine French wine amidst grenade attacks by the Vietminh and wandered off to smoke opium, a jaded Cassandra, as he was preparing , the definitive novel about the tragedy of American self-delusion.聽

Some of the Americans at the hotel were pleased that Trump would now 鈥淢ake America Great Again.鈥� Alas, the ghost of Greene remained as perceptive in November 2024 as he was in 1953:  America and the world are in for what may well prove four harmful, epoch-changing years under the most delusional president in American history.

International organizations and agreements are pass茅

In Trump鈥檚 view, every other country in the world has taken advantage of weak American leaders, and every international organization only serves to fetter American freedom, power and wealth. Trump even America鈥檚 post-war network of alliances, which have been the centerpiece of American foreign policy since 1945, multinational institutions such as the United Nations and agreements such as the and the on climate change as venues for 鈥渨eak,鈥� or simply non-American, states to take advantage of the US.聽聽

Since entering the White House, Trump has proceeded to launch an avalanche of tariffs on trading partners, including close allies. Some of them, like the UK, the EU and Japan, have concluded deals with the US over a barrel. Trump has also weakened longstanding alliances such as NATO and made the World Trade Organization (WTO) irrelevant. Trump approaches all issues as zero-sum transactions and always prefers to negotiate bilaterally, not multilaterally.

As an isolationist, Trump dislikes treaty and alliance commitments: He is far less likely than his predecessors to honor US security commitments to NATO, Japan, South Korea or Australia. It is yet unclear how Trump will respond to China鈥檚 increasingly strong and aggressive military and diplomatic postures against Taiwan. Bluster and threats are certain; more than that, doubtful.    

Effects on international order

The results of this isolationist, antagonistic, unilateral, single-solution and simple-minded approach to international relations will be a rise in global protectionism and the decay of international organizations: Costs will rise in the US and worldwide; growth will slow or reverse; stock markets could well tumble in alarm; international cooperation will decline.

The normative, rules-based international system is likely, finally, to tear apart under four years of sustained hostility from Trump鈥檚 US, its hitherto champion. The US will remain the most influential nation on earth no matter what Trump does, but already we are living in the progressive establishment of a multipolar world of competing great powers. 

Trump鈥檚 isolationism and weakening of the normative alliances and multilateral institutions could well enable Russia, for all its weaknesses and woes, to assert the great power sphere of influence it has long sought in its 鈥溾�� of Eastern and Central Europe.聽

China, already one of the world鈥檚 two most powerful nations, will consolidate its preponderance in Asia and the Western Pacific, establishing its own, heavily bilateral, Middle Kingdom style of normative rules and institutions, a haughty Asian and Western Pacific imperium. The world鈥檚 weaker nations will leverage China and Russia to negotiate better bilateral deals with the rich 鈥淲est,鈥� i.e., the US, while acting as a free rider to what remains of the American-led normative system.  

Regional powers, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, will more aggressively pursue their own unilateral interests and expand their influence in an ever-chaotic Middle East and beyond.  Some of the world鈥檚 weaker and poorer nations may welcome Trump鈥檚 disregard for international norms concerning human rights and democracy, but all will lament the imperfect but real protections that the normative system still provides smaller states.  

All these trends have been emerging since the millennium; Trump鈥檚 policies will accelerate them, whatever bilateral deals he may cut: Might will make right more than any time since 1945. International relations will become nastier and more brutal.   

Domestic division will weaken America

Like any malignant narcissist, Donald Trump鈥檚 only interest is whatever action or statement will seem to enhance attention on himself. He has almost no set principles or views on public policy. He has, however, aggressively adopted conservative social and economic Republican positions on domestic policy, because the Republicans are his base of power. His domestic agenda, therefore, is clear, stark and grotesquely self-contradictory. This agenda will inevitably weaken America.

Trump centered his campaign and derives much of his appeal from the problem of illegal immigration. Trump has 鈥渢o declare a national emergency and will use military assets to reverse the Biden invasion through a mass deportation program,鈥� of millions of illegal immigrants.聽聽

Trump and his advisors have spoken of creating mass detention camps. Deportation will help address, in Trump鈥檚 view, the economic and social stresses on America鈥檚 working class and will remove non-whites from America. In fact, it is America鈥檚 immigration 鈥� legal and illegal, professional and untrained 鈥� that for years has provided the labor force that has helped enable much of America鈥檚 strong economic performance. Trump鈥檚 brutal crackdown on immigration is already weakening the economy.

Trump and Republicans also have pledged to cut taxes, reduce the budget deficit and reduce regulations, which in their view hinder economic growth. The tax cuts that he has pressured Congress to pass will add more than four trillion to the government鈥檚 deficit. Trump鈥檚 tax cuts 40% 鈥� over eight trillion dollars 鈥� to the national debt, while giving 83% of the tax cuts to the wealthiest 1% of US households, who already hold between 30-40% of all US wealth. Inequality weakens social cohesion, and America will prove to be no exception.

The cure-all tariffs Trump promises will amount to an inflation-causing national sales tax and will raise every consumer鈥檚 cost of living per year, while depressing overall economic growth. Any student of economics learns that it is domestic consumers who pay for tariffs, not foreign producers (tariffs promote more, but less efficient, domestic production and depress foreign production).聽聽

鈥淧reparations are underway to slash massive numbers of job-killing regulations 鈥� eliminating ten old regulations for every new one,鈥� Trump has . This is a longstanding Republican and businessmen鈥檚 bugaboo. The real issue, of course, is not regulation but trade-offs: Which is better, less restrictive air pollution requirements for factories, or less harm to public health from pollution? Desirable or not, deregulation is a gargantuan task, and any change should be slow and incremental. Instead, Trump鈥檚 Mad Max approach is rash, damaging and self-destructive.

Trump will pursue this nativist, protectionist, isolationist agenda while insulting anyone who does not fawn over him. US politics will become even more divided and paralyzed.  Social cohesion will continue to corrode. Objective truth will continue to dissolve in a torrent of 鈥渁lternative facts.鈥� Faith in public institutions and democracy itself will continue to erode. Amidst the chaos, however, we will hear over and over how Trump is 鈥渕aking America great again.鈥� 

The wine at the H么tel M茅tropole the day after the US election was a little light for my taste, yet gentle and still round. Was it elegiac, a toast to the failed dreams of the idealistic Americans who preceded me there? Or was it a pledge to continue fighting truly to 鈥渕ake America great again?鈥� 

[ first published a version of this piece.]

[ edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.