51吃瓜

Given the secrecy typically accorded to the military and the inclination of government officials to skew data to satisfy the preferences of those in power, intelligence failures are anything but unusual in this country鈥檚 security affairs. In 2003, for instance, President George W. Bush invaded Iraq based on claims 鈥� later found to be 鈥� that its leader, Saddam Hussein, was developing or already possessed weapons of mass destruction. Similarly, the instant collapse of the Afghan government in August 2021, when the US completed the withdrawal of its forces from that country, came as a shock only because of wildly optimistic of that government鈥檚 strength. Now, the Department of Defense has delivered another massive intelligence failure, this time on China鈥檚 future threat to American security.

The Pentagon is required by law to provide Congress and the public with an annual report on 鈥渕ilitary and security developments involving the People鈥檚 Republic of China,鈥� or PRC, over the next 20 years. The 2022 version, of detailed information published last November 29th, focused on its current and future military threat to the United States. In two decades, so we鈥檙e assured, China鈥檚 military 鈥� the People鈥檚 Liberation Army, or PLA 鈥� will be superbly equipped to counter Washington should a conflict arise over Taiwan or navigation rights in the South China Sea. But here鈥檚 the shocking thing: in those nearly 200 pages of analysis, there wasn鈥檛 a single word 鈥� not one 鈥� devoted to China鈥檚 role in what will pose the most pressing threat to our security in the years to come: runaway climate change.

The World This Week: Climate Change Matters and So Do Other Species

At a time when California has just been in a singular fashion by punishing winds and massive rain storms delivered by a moisture-laden 鈥渁tmospheric river鈥� flowing over large parts of the state while much of the rest of the country has from severe, often lethal floods, tornadoes, or snowstorms, it should be self-evident that climate change constitutes a vital threat to our security. But those storms, along with the rapacious wildfires and relentless heatwaves experienced in recent summers 鈥� not to speak of a 1,200-year record in the Southwest 鈥� represent a to what we can expect in the decades to come. By 2042, the nightly news 鈥� already saturated with storm-related disasters 鈥� could be devoted almost exclusively to such events.

All true, you might say, but what does China have to do with any of this? Why should climate change be included in a Department of Defense report on security developments in relation to the People鈥檚 Republic?

There are three reasons why it should not only have been included but given extensive coverage. First, China is now and will remain the world鈥檚 leading emitter of climate-altering carbon emissions, with the United States 鈥� though the greatest emitter 鈥� staying in second place. So, any effort to slow the pace of global warming and truly enhance this country鈥檚 鈥渟ecurity鈥� must involve a strong drive by Beijing to reduce its emissions as well as cooperation in energy decarbonization between the two greatest emitters on this planet. Second, China itself will be subjected to extreme climate-change harm in the years to come, which will severely limit the PRC鈥檚 ability to carry out ambitious military plans of the sort described in the 2022 Pentagon report. Finally, by 2042, count on one thing: the American and Chinese armed forces will be devoting most of their resources and attention to disaster relief and recovery, diminishing both their motives and their capacity to go to war with one another.

China鈥檚 Outsized Role in the Climate Change Equation

Global warming, scientists tell us, is caused by the accumulation of 鈥渁nthropogenic鈥� (human-produced) greenhouse gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere that trap the reflected light from the sun鈥檚 radiation. of those GHGs are carbon and methane emitted during the production and combustion of fossil fuels (oil, coal, and natural gas); additional GHGs are released through agricultural and industrial processes, especially steel and cement production. To prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era 鈥� the largest increase scientists believe the planet can absorb without catastrophic outcomes 鈥� such emissions will have to be sharply reduced.

Historically speaking, the United States and the European Union (EU) countries have been the largest GHG emitters, for 25% and 22% of cumulative CO2 emissions, respectively. But those countries, and other advanced industrial nations like Canada and Japan, have been taking significant steps to reduce their emissions, including phasing out the use of coal in electricity generation and providing incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles. As a result, their net CO2 emissions have in recent years and are expected to decline further in the decades to come (though they will need to do yet more to keep us below that 1.5-degree warming limit).

China, a relative latecomer to the industrial era, is historically responsible for 鈥渙nly鈥� 13% of cumulative global CO2 emissions. However, in its drive to accelerate its economic growth in recent decades, it has vastly increased its reliance on coal to generate electricity, resulting in ever-greater CO2 emissions. China now accounts for an of total world coal consumption, which, in turn, largely explains its current dominance among the major carbon emitters. According to the 2022 edition of the International Energy Agency鈥檚 World Energy Outlook, the PRC was responsible for 33% of global CO2 emissions in 2021, compared with 15% for the US and 11% for the EU.

What Climate Debt Does the North Owe the South?

Like most other countries, China has to abide by the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 and undertake the decarbonization of its economy as part of a worldwide drive to keep global warming within some bounds. As part of that agreement, however, China itself as a 鈥渄eveloping鈥� country with the option of increasing its fossil-fuel use for 15 years or so before achieving a peak in CO2 emissions in 2030. Barring some surprising set of developments then, the PRC will undoubtedly the world鈥檚 leading source of CO2 emissions for years to come, suffusing the atmosphere with colossal amounts of carbon dioxide and undergirding a continuing rise in global temperatures.   

Yes, the United States, Japan, and the EU countries should indeed do more to reduce their emissions, but they鈥檙e already on a downward trajectory and an even more rapid decline will not be enough to offset China鈥檚 colossal CO2 output. Put differently, those Chinese emissions 鈥� estimated by the IEA at 12 billion metric tons annually 鈥� represent at least as great a threat to US security as the multitude of tanks, planes, ships, and missiles enumerated in the Pentagon鈥檚 2022 report on security developments in the PRC. That means they will require the close attention of American policymakers if we are to escape the most severe impacts of climate change.

China鈥檚 Vulnerability to Climate Change

Along with detailed information on China鈥檚 outsized contribution to the greenhouse effect, any thorough report on security developments involving the PRC should have included an assessment of that country鈥檚 vulnerability to climate change. It should have laid out just how global warming might, in the future, affect its ability to marshal resources for a demanding, high-cost military competition with the United States.

In the coming decades, like the US and other continental-scale countries, China will suffer severely from the multiple impacts of rising world temperatures, including extreme storm damage, prolonged droughts and heatwaves, catastrophic flooding, and rising seas. Worse yet, the PRC has several distinctive features that will leave it especially vulnerable to global warming, including a heavily-populated eastern seaboard rising sea levels and increasingly powerful typhoons; a vast interior, parts of which, already significantly dry, will be prone to full-scale ; and a vital river system that relies on unpredictable rainfall and increasingly imperiled . As warming advances and China experiences an ever-increasing climate assault, its social, economic, and political institutions, including the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), will be severely tested.

According to a recent from the Center for Climate and Security, 鈥�,鈥� the threats to its vital institutions will take two major forms: hits to its critical infrastructure like port facilities, military bases, transportation hubs, and low-lying urban centers along China鈥檚 heavily populated coastline; and the danger of growing internal instability arising from ever-increasing economic dislocation, food scarcity, and governmental incapacitation.

China鈥檚 coastline already suffers heavy flooding during severe storms and significant parts of it could be entirely underwater by the second half of this century, requiring the possible relocation of hundreds of millions of people and the reconstruction of billions of dollars鈥� worth of vital facilities. Such tasks will surely require the full attention of Chinese authorities as well as the extensive homebound commitment of military resources, leaving little capacity for foreign adventures. Why, you might wonder, is there not a single sentence about this in the Pentagon鈥檚 assessment of future Chinese capabilities?

Even more worrisome, from Beijing鈥檚 perspective, is the possible effect of climate change on the country鈥檚 internal stability. 鈥淐limate change impacts are likely to threaten China鈥檚 economic growth, its food and water security, and its efforts at poverty eradication,鈥� the climate center鈥檚 study suggests (but the Pentagon report doesn鈥檛 mention). Such developments will, in turn, 鈥渓ikely increase the country鈥檚 vulnerability to political instability, as climate change undermines the government鈥檚 ability to meet its citizens鈥� demands.鈥�

Of particular concern, the report suggests, is global warming鈥檚 dire threat to food security. China, it notes, must feed approximately 20% of the world鈥檚 population while occupying only 12% of its arable land, much of which is vulnerable to drought, flooding, extreme heat, and other disastrous climate impacts. As food and water supplies dwindle, Beijing could face popular unrest, even revolt, in food-scarce areas of the country, especially if the government fails to respond adequately. This, no doubt, will compel the CCP to deploy its armed forces nationwide to maintain order, leaving ever fewer of them available for other military purposes 鈥� another possibility absent from the Pentagon鈥檚 assessment.

COP27 Flopped: the Rich Won鈥檛 Pay, the Poor Will Suffer

Of course, in the years to come, the US, too, will feel the ever more severe impacts of climate change and may itself no longer be in a position to fight wars in distant lands 鈥� a consideration also completely absent from the Pentagon report.

The Prospects for Climate Cooperation

Along with gauging China鈥檚 military capabilities, that annual report is required by law to consider 鈥淯nited States-China engagement and cooperation on security matters鈥� including through United States-China military-to-military contacts.鈥� And indeed, the 2022 version does note that Washington interprets such 鈥渆ngagement鈥� as involving joint efforts to avert accidental or inadvertent conflict by participating in high-level Pentagon-PLA crisis-management arrangements, including what鈥檚 known as the Crisis Communications Working Group. 鈥淩ecurring exchanges [like these],鈥� the report , 鈥渟erve as regularized mechanisms for dialogue to advance priorities related to crisis prevention and management.鈥�

Any effort aimed at preventing conflict between the two countries is certainly a worthy endeavor. But the report also assumes that such military friction is now inevitable and the most that can be hoped for is to prevent World War III from being ignited. However, given all we鈥檝e already learned about the climate threat to both China and the United States, isn鈥檛 it time to move beyond mere conflict avoidance to more collaborative efforts, military and otherwise, aimed at reducing our mutual climate vulnerabilities?

At the moment, sadly enough, such relations sound far-fetched indeed.  But it shouldn鈥檛 be so. After all, the Department of Defense has already designated climate change a vital threat to national security and has indeed called for cooperative efforts between American forces and those of other countries in overcoming climate-related dangers. 鈥淲e will elevate climate as a national security priority,鈥� Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in March 2021, 鈥渋ntegrating climate considerations into the Department鈥檚 policies, strategies, and partner engagements.鈥�

Cities Under Water
Where in the world is most at risk from sea-level rise?

The Pentagon provided further information on such 鈥減artner engagements鈥� in a 2021 report on the military鈥檚 vulnerabilities to climate change. 鈥淭here are many ways for the Department to integrate climate considerations into international partner engagements,鈥� that report , 鈥渋ncluding supporting interagency diplomacy and development initiatives in partner nations [and] sharing best practices.鈥� One such effort, it noted, is the Pacific Environmental Security Partnership, a network of climate specialists from that region who meet annually at the Pentagon-sponsored Pacific Environmental Security Forum.

At present, China is not among the nations involved in that or other Pentagon-sponsored climate initiatives. Yet, as both countries experience increasingly severe impacts from rising global temperatures and their militaries are forced to devote ever more time and resources to disaster relief, information-sharing on climate-response 鈥渂est practices鈥� will make so much more sense than girding for war over Taiwan or small uninhabited islands in the East and South China Seas (some of which will be completely underwater by century鈥檚 end). Indeed, the Pentagon and the PLA are more alike in facing the climate challenge than most of the world鈥檚 military forces and so it should be in both countries鈥� mutual interests to promote cooperation in the ultimate critical area for any country in this era of ours.Consider it a form of twenty-first-century madness, then, that a Pentagon report on the US and China can鈥檛 even conceive of such a possibility. Given China鈥檚 increasingly significant role in world affairs, Congress should require an annual Pentagon report on all relevant military and security developments involving the PRC. Count on one thing: in the future, one devoted exclusively to analyzing what still passes for 鈥渕ilitary鈥� developments and lacking any discussion of climate change will seem like an all-too-grim joke. The world deserves better going forward if we are to survive the coming climate onslaught.

The views expressed in this article are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect 51吃瓜鈥檚 editorial policy.