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Dear FO簞 Reader, Hello again from the West and East Coasts of the United States. Today, we will be going over the potentially new North Coast Greenland. US President Donald Trump has been making quite a few waves in international headlines since the beginning of the year, with his attack on Venezuela, constant spats with global leaders and now his threats to invade the territory of Greenland. Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, has rebuffed Trumps demands, as has its parent nation and Europe as a whole. With the back and forth still ongoing, we thought it best to break down the surprisingly long history of the United States interest in the worlds largest island, highlight key strategic points and shed a little bit of light on what the erratic president might be thinking. A long-standing American interest The United States interest in acquiring Greenland is not new, and Trump is far from the first American president to consider purchasing the Danish territory. As early as 1868, shortly after the US bought Alaska from Russia, Secretary of State William H. Seward explored the idea of acquiring Greenland and Iceland from Denmark. Although the proposal never advanced, it reflected Washingtons growing strategic focus on the Arctic and the North Atlantic. The idea resurfaced during the Cold War. In 1946, under President Harry Truman, the United States formally offered Denmark $100 million in gold to purchase Greenland. Danish officials swiftly rejected the proposal, reportedly describing it as absurd, echoing the response Denmark would later give to Trumps renewed interest decades later. Despite these failed purchase attempts, the USDanish relationship has remained close and largely pragmatic. Since Denmark joined NATO in 1949, NATO members have built cooperation on mutual trust, particularly in matters of Arctic security. Greenland has played a central role in this partnership, hosting US military installations such as Thule Air Base, which remains vital to missile defense and early-warning systems. The history of USDanish territorial negotiations also extends beyond Greenland. In 1917, as Washington sought to expand its strategic presence in the Caribbean, President Woodrow Wilson approved the purchase of the Danish West Indies for $25 million. The US government later renamed the islands the US Virgin Islands, marking it as the only successful territorial sale between the two countries. Together, this history underscores that current debates over Greenland are not an isolated episode. Rather, these tensions are but a part of a long-standing American strategic interest shaped by geography, security concerns and great-power competition in the Arctic. Sources:
Future fissures: lines drawn in the water The melting of Greenlands ice brings with it two developments that are relatively new to our era, yet geopolitically transformative. First, Greenland sits atop vast reserves of critical rare earth elements and other strategic resources essential for sustaining the AI revolution, advanced computing and next-generation military technologies. As global competition over these minerals intensifies. Greenland is rapidly shifting from a peripheral territory to a strategic prize. Second, the changing Arctic environment offers Russia a long-awaited opportunity. Despite being the largest country on Earth, endowed with nearly every essential resource a major power requires and possessing a formidable military and advanced technological base, Russias geography has historically constrained its ability to project power. Unlike other great powers, Russia lacks reliable, direct access to warm waters and unrestricted international sea lanes. The melting of the ice in the North Pole and its surrounding areas, including Greenland, brings with it two developments that are relatively new to our era, yet geopolitically transformative. Sources:
This geographic limitation has long constrained Russias geopolitical position. To the north, access to international waters depends heavily on routes monitored or influenced by NATO. To the south, Russia must rely on Turkeys control of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles under the Montreux Convention. These chokepoints severely limit Russias naval movement, trade routes and strategic reach.
A 1715 map of the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus. As Arctic ice recedes, however, new maritime corridors most notably the Northern Sea Route are becoming increasingly usable. This development has the potential to partly offset Russias historical disadvantages by providing alternative access to global markets and strategic waterways, reducing its dependence on NATO-controlled passages. However, this also brings Russia into more direct contact with the United States from the north. We often see memes about Russia and the United States near the Bering Strait appearing friendly there while acting like enemies in Europe. The Strait and other northern territories are getting warmer, and with them, tensions are also heating up. Which leads us back to the man who is jumpstarting this thawTrump. The psychology of it all: What is Trump thinking? This is not the first time Trump has attempted to take Greenland from Denmark. During his first term in 2019, Trump offered to purchase the territory from Copenhagen, which was rejected. At the start of Trumps second term, his congressional allies introduced a bill, dubbed the Make Greenland Great Again Act, which would authorize Trump to enter into negotiations with Denmark for the purchase of the territory. Suffice to say, this subject has been on Trumps mind for a while now. As for the exact reasons why, things are not as clear-cut as they might seem. There are the aforementioned strategic and mineral concerns, which are undoubtedly playing a role, but forward thinking is unlikely to be the only factor at play. Sources: First, we should consider the timing. At the start of the year, Trump successfully invaded the sovereign nation of Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro to international outrage and condemnation. He has yet to suffer any notable consequences, even while openly planning to seize Venezuelas oil reserves. It is very likely this has emboldened Trump to escalate. Now he sees Greenland as a viable target another long-desired prize he can take from a smaller, weaker nation. Sources: Second, there is a pervasive belief in the American left that Trump embarked on both international crusades to shift the narrative away from the Epstein files. These files concern a former associate of Trump who was arrested for trafficking underage girls, with many people believing that Trump himself was involved. In December of 2025, Trumps own Justice Department released thousands of files to the public, heavily redacting many of them. Several of these files mention Trump by name. The most disturbing is a report from a woman who claimed that when she was 13, [Trump] participated regularly in paying money to force me to (redacted) with him and he was present when my uncle murdered my newborn child and disposed of the body in Lake Michigan. The White House and the Justice Department have vigorously denied that anything relating to Trump is true. However, it is also undeniable that only a portion of the Epstein files have been released despite the Justice Department being legally required to release all of them. The heavily redacted nature of the files (the Justice Department reportedly spent nearly $1 million on overtime for agents redacting them) only makes the situation worse. This has led many to believe that Trumps recent erratic behaviour regarding Greenland is a smokescreen, and that he is attempting to deflect attention away from a truly toxic scandal. Sources: Third and finally, there are also the petty reasons. In a 2021 interview, Trump is quoted as saying: I love maps. And I always said: Look at the size of [Greenland]. Its massive. That should be part of the United States. Given Trumps usual erratic behavior, it is not impossible that this entire episode was built on an impulsive decision that he decided to run with. This theory also gained steam when some of the White Houses communication to the Norwegian Prime Minister was revealed. The message implied that Trump embarked on this crusade when the Nobel Foundation, an independent organization, did not give him its Nobel Peace Prize. Sources: Dire undercurrents and foggy futures As the situation unfolds, it is unclear what the future holds as always but doubly so with Trumps erratic decision-making. While it seems impossible, Trump will push far enough to actually attack a fellow NATO country; he has made a career of doing things no other president has ever considered. Whatever the future holds, Denmark and Greenland are unlikely to go down without a fight. If Trump decides to push the nuclear button, things may not go as quickly as he hopes. European allies have been encircling Greenland in solidarity. And, the US attacking Greenland will undoubtedly lead to the dissolution of NATO, which would delight Russia to no end. This is a great irony, as Russia is supposedly one of the enemies the US wants to combat through the acquisition of Greenland. Yet despite all his bluster, Trump has recently changed his tune. After meeting face-to-face with EU leaders at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Trump backed down on January 22 from his plan to tariff Greenland and other EU countries. Now he seems open to establishing a new deal that would fulfill US strategic desires in the Arctic. Source:
For now, things appear to have calmed down slightly. Only time will tell if Trumps discussions in Davos will hold, or if its more foggy rhetoric. We invite you to discuss your thoughts on the US and Greenland with us. Wishing you a thoughtful week, Casey, Liam, Farhang Assistant Editors | ||
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