No Story Is Worth Dying For

In most Kenyan media schools, the phrase “No Story Is Worth Dying For” is quite a common saying. However, what happens when you fall in love with your work?

Describing herself as a “product of Jerusalem,” with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict shaping much of her life, Shireen Abu Akleh has shown the world what it means to be a journalist and what it means  to tell stories that  affect you as a journalist and your community. In her own words, her only mission was to be close to her people, and within her people she was killed.

“I chose to become a journalist to be close to people. It may not be easy to change reality, but I was at least able to bring their voice to the world,” Abu Akleh said in a taped for the Qatari channel’s 25th anniversary. 

Journalism in Africa Has Become a Travesty

When I was growing up, I listened to Kenya Broadcasting Corporation’s Radio Taifa and watched KBC Channel 1 —  that’s what we had at that time and I must say that the type of journalism exhibited was mind-blowing. A type of journalism that can only be compared to Abu Akleh’s.

Today, African journalists have turned their craft into a very ordinary career reserved for cool kids, who spent most of their time in big cities or overseas. After spending time overseas, these cool kids return to their homeland and land jobs in major newsrooms, thanks to their polished English. Sadly, most of them have zero journalism skills or storytelling abilities.

While journalists like Ahmed Hussein-Suale,a renowned investigative journalist from Ghana, was in 2019 for his role in exposing the corruption in his country,and Jamal Farah Adan of Somalia, Betty Mtekhele Barasa of Kenya, and dozens were killed in Ethiopia covering the Tigray conflict, it is very unfortunate that some journalists still find it right to use journalism for fame, power, and build future political careers.

Today, some Kenyan journalists engage in uncalled-for social media wars with critics who point out their lack of skills and unreasonable theatrics for clout chasing.

We have lost the basics of journalism such as good storytelling. Instead, journalists are thirsty for social media numbers, likes, and retweets. We don’t verify anymore. As long as it helps increase the number of followers, it goes for publishing. Right now, distinguishing a professionally trained journalist from a socialite is becoming an uphill task.

African Governments Must Learn from Palestine

Shireen Abu Akleh was shot dead by Israeli forces just eight days after the world marked the World Press Freedom Day on May 3. With such events, African governments need to step up and steer clear of Israeli-like behaviors of gagging the media, and instead, just like Palestine gave Abu Akleh the freedom to tell her people’s story, they should also give the same freedom to their journalists.

In March, Ugandan authorities the offices of Digitalk, an online tv station known for airing critical views of President Yoweri Museveni and his family. Other than confiscating the TV’s production and broadcasting equipment, they also arrested and charged its reporters with cyberstalking and offensive communication. The charges could see them facing up to seven years in prison. 

The killing of this brave journalist who dared to tell the stories of the oppressive Israeli should not kill the spirits of journalists worldwide. Instead, this should be an inspiration to every reporter to work even harder,  to help give voice to the voiceless, uphold justice and make the world a better place for every person whether in Gaza, Tigray, Libya, Syria or Afghanistan among other countries and regions experiencing instability.

(Senior Editor Francesca Julia Zucchelli edited this article.)

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Shireen Abu Akleh: The Journalist Martyr appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

The most striking bit of gossip that I picked up was that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has knocked up his nanny and is expecting what might be his twelfth child. As rumors go, this might be as fictional as Nessie, the Loch Ness monster. After all, rumors have swirled in London and various capitals around the world for ages about the salacious private lives of the great men of the realm.

Yet I could not help but think that rumors about Johnson are taking this green and pleasant land back to the future. The current prime minister is supremely powerful. All Tory grandees have been defenestrated. The likes of William Hague and Kenneth Clarke may still go around giving speeches but they do not matter anymore. Unlike Winston Churchill or Margaret Thatcher who surrounded herself with big beasts in the cabinet, Johnson is now the only big beast among pygmies. Unlikely though this may sound, such concentration of power harks back to a bygone era.

Falstaffian Churchill-Worshiping Henry VIII

Johnson may play the buffoon but he is a classicist with a keen sense of history. He is one of the great characters of Eton, a great school that produced the likes of the Duke of Wellington and Orwell. As a child, young Johnson wanted to be . Later, he downgraded his ambitions and gunned to be prime minister. Not only has Johnson got to 10 Downing Street, he has got there in style and has etched his name in the history books. This Falstaffian figure fond of wine, women and song has delivered Brexit and won a thumping reelection.

In many ways, Big Boris is the modern Henry VIII who has broken with Europe. It may turn out to be a jolly good thing in the future as debt-ridden aging Europe fails to deal with its mounting debts, stubborn unemployment and now rising inflation. In the long run, Brexit might still turn out to be a jolly good thing after all. Johnson might end up like the historic Henry VIII figure who set England on the path of glory and empire.

Johnson, who is obsessed with Winston Churchill, is doing quite well out of the Russia-Ukraine War. Like his hero, the prime minister is enjoying his finest hour. He has boldly taken on the transparently villainous Vladimir Putin and turned the screws on Russian oligarchs who, until not too long ago, bought houses, yachts and football clubs. A few weeks ago, BoJo (a popular nickname for Johnson in the UK) dashed to Kyiv for a with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Yet not all has been going well for Big Boris since he moved into 10 Downing Street. Brexit was a long drawn-out affair. The Partygate scandal continues to rumble on. Tory grandees and the notoriously savage British press continue to hammer Johnson. The Economist has “foot-dragging, hard-heartedness, ineptitude and dishonesty”to be  typical of BoJo’s government. The venerable 1843 publication has gone on to say repeatedly that the Johnson “government is a fundamentally unserious government led by fundamentally unserious ±č±đ´Ç±č±ô±đ.”

Most recently, BoJo lost what Al Ghaff and I have called “the most consequential local elections in decades.” Yet he remains firmly in the saddle because this “sly fox as a teddy bear” has chewed up the little rabbit coming out of the Tory hat named Rishi Sunak.

Cummings and Goings

The recent rumors about Johnson’s latest amorous adventure might be much ado about nothing. After all, nothing has stopped BoJo in the past. He is the great survivor of British politics. Nearly 18 years ago, Michael Howard BoJo for lying about an affair. BoJo came roaring back and is still riding high.

Yet there is always a sneaking suspicion that one day BoJo might not be able to manage yet another James Bond-style close shave. As the adage goes, even the canniest of cats have only nine lives. It is not without reason that Dominic Cummings, once an unlikely ally of Johnson, him “a shopping trolley smashing from one side of the aisle to the other.” Some of BoJo’s critics point to his private life as proof of Cummings’ observations and has repeatedly taken the mickey out of BoJo for never taking . 

Two years ago, when BoJo’s now wife and then girlfriend was expecting their baby, mocked Big Boris for fathering what was rumored to be his tenth child. Carrie Johnson has now given birth to another child, bringing that number to 11. BoJo has produced enough progeny to form a football (soccer for Americans) team. Now, rumors emerge that the man to “lock up [his] willy” might have failed to do so again. This time, his nanny is the lady in question.

Already, BoJo’s nanny has been in the . Apparently, Conservative donors have been ponying up the cash to pay for his lifestyle. This allegedly includes the salary of the nanny. Early this month, The Times — the real one in London, not The New York Times that is a target of my learned colleague Peter Isackson — asked, “Can Boris Johnson afford to be prime minister?” 

Given BoJo’s posh lifestyle and, presumably, “off the record, on the QT, and very hush-hush” payments for his many children, The Times’ question is most pertinent. Another Boris, the blond tennis superstar Boris Becker, once known for his booming serve and partying lifestyle, is in jail over bankruptcy charges. BoJo is unlikely to end up like Becker but he is clearly a prime minister under strain. If rumors of another child with the nanny are not just smoke without fire, then the BoJo shopping trolley might be careening completely out of control.

When is Private Life a Public Issue?

Rumors about BoJo’s child number 12 for the man in Number 10 raise a key issue about the private lives of public figures. In puritanical America, politicians were and, with the exception of Donald Trump, still are generally damned for what many Europeans might term moments of weakness or mere piffle. Gary Hart’s presidential campaign imploded when a lissome model was on his lap. David Petraeus had to as the director of the CIA for an extramarital affair and the ensuing kerfuffle. Such errant behavior is seen to be a reflection of poor character that disqualifies people from public office.

In France, presidents have long had mistresses. It almost seems that it is a prerequisite for the job and perhaps demonstrates nimble management skills required of any inhabitant of the Élysée Palace. BoJo has long maintained that his private life is his private life and that is that. In 2013, a British judge disagreed. He refused BoJo a gagging order concerning an illegitimate child taking the view that the public had a right to know about BoJo’s “reckless” conduct.

As my dear Dutch friend Jarst de Jong put it best, BoJo’s private life is a matter of public importance. It gives insight into the character and judgment of the British prime minister. A Jarst said pithily, anyone can cheat once because no one is a saint. A second time may be understable as well. But when someone cheats repeatedly and lies about it, then it reveals their lack of trustworthiness. BoJo seems to repeatedly betray those who love and trust him. That might not be the most desirable trait for any leader. 

BoJo’s repeated scandals also reveal a certain lack of awareness and understanding of risk. Taking risks is part of leadership but taking risks without understanding what consequences they entail is a dangerous habit. BoJo has long had a reputation for recklessness but has got away with the risks he has taken so far. Maybe, the twelfth child might inspire a play like The Twelfth Night.

Perhaps the UK could heed the words of , a man who first hired Johnson and packed him off to Brussels. Hastings also gave BoJo the “lock up” advice, which has so far gone unheeded. In 2018, Hastings wrote, “Johnson’s glittering intelligence [was] not matched by self-knowledge.” Calling BoJo, “Blackadder in a blond wig” with “remarkable gifts,” Hastings called Big Boris “flawed by an absence of conscience, principle or scruple.” The contrast with Gaitskell whose tombstone says fortitudo et integritas could not be starker.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Do Rumors of Boris Johnson’s Purported Twelfth Child Matter? appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Market concentration, on the other hand, is a more pernicious issue. More than  the value of US farm production came from farms with at least $1 million in sales in 2015, compared to only 31% in 1991.

The consequences of consolidation become apparent in the sales of various agricultural products. For example, in 2000, the biggest four companies sold 51% of  seeds in the United States. By 2015, their share rose to 76%.

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“The agricultural industry is different than other industries because Capper-Volstead allows them to combine in ways that other individuals would go to jail for,”   Allee A. Ramadhan, a former Justice Department antitrust attorney who led an investigation into the dairy industry. The 1922 Capper-Volstead Act was a law originally designed to protect producers by allowing them to secure their interests through cooperatives. Unfortunately, it has resulted in the perfect conditions for heavy consolidation by the largest companies.

Consolidation doesn’t just impact prices, but it also contributes to US agriculture’s declining competitiveness. That is why agriculture was included in President ´ł´Ç±đ&˛Ô˛ú˛ő±č;µţľ±»ĺ±đ˛Ô’s executive  on competition last July, in which he declared that the “American promise of a broad and sustained prosperity depends on an open and competitive economy.”

Fertilizers and Destabilizing Forces

In addition to the structural concerns for US agriculture, there have been further destabilizing since 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only did the health crisis remove domestic outlets for agricultural products due to repeated lockdowns, but it also severely disrupted production. This was particularly in terms of available human resources, whether before at the farms or down the processing chain with the temporary closure of many slaughterhouses.

Aside from the impact of COVID-19, extreme weather has pummeled certain states, reduced production and caused billions of dollars in damage. The prices of many inputs are snowballing into other areas. Prices for urea have skyrocketed. DAP, the common phosphate fertilizer, has reached its highest price tag since the 2008 financial crash that led to the food pricing crisis.

“A˛ő fertilizer prices continue to rise, farmers will either cut application rates, cut fertilizer entirely in hopes for lower future pricing, or cut other farm products to account for the bigger expected spend,”  Alexis Maxwell, an analyst at Green Markets.

Some farmers are essentially holding out before buying for the next growing season, in the hopes that costs come down. But that is a risky strategy.

Contributing to the destabilizing forces, recent countervailing duties against foreign fertilizer producers selling to the US market have cut supply. Chris Edgington, the president of the National Cotton Growers Association, in late 2021 that the Mosaic Company petitioned for the tariffs and has since seen its share of the phosphate market grow from 74% to 80%, a near-monopoly. “There’s been a dramatic increase of fertilizer costs to the producer and that’s not looking to end,” he added. In general, the price increases for different fertilizers are not yet at the levels seen in 2008, but they could soon be even higher if they keep climbing.

Uncertainty Due to the Ukraine War

The war in Ukraine has added fuel to the fire regarding the uncertainties in the agricultural sector. The conflict has pitted against each other Russia and Ukraine, whose wheat exports for more than 25% of the world’s supply. Now, these exports are at risk, as witnessed by the emerging food crisis in several North African and Middle Eastern countries.

For instance, Tunisia imports half of its wheat from Ukraine to make bread. In the country where the Arab Spring began in December 2010, Tunisians are worried there could be shortages of supplies and a repeat of bread riots like in the 1980s. Alarmingly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused prices to rise to their highest level in 14 years. Yemen, Lebanon and Egypt are also beginning to be stricken by flour shortages.

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The conflict has also led to the introduction of severe against Russia and Belarus, two of the world’s largest producers and exporters of fertilizers of all kinds, along with natural gas, an essential ingredient in ammonia production and a key component of complex fertilizers. Although the United States produces most of its own natural gas, fluctuations in world prices have a significant effect on the fertilizer industry. This only exacerbates the difficulties farmers currently face in obtaining inputs.

Thus, while US farmers could look forward to a windfall of increased demand for their grain in the coming year, in the immediate future, they are simply faced with a further increase in production costs. Due to these added costs of inputs and the supply chain issues, US agriculture — especially the wheat industry — may be lacking the fertilizers needed to maximize yields, resulting in a decline in production and impeding its capability to respond to global demand.

In a way, in the immediate and near future, the nightmare of 2021 is only worsening. For Arkansas farmer , “There’s no guarantee of anything being a sure thing anymore. That’s the scary part.”

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post After a Difficult Year, US Farmers Are Pessimistic appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

The elections have provided a crucial first indication of which direction Colombia is heading ahead of the presidential elections in May and June. According to preliminary results, Colombia remains with a highly fragmented Congress; none of the parties has more than 16%. Yet the results are historic. The big winner of the elections is the Pacto Historico, a group of several left-of-center parties campaigning on a platform of social equality. The group out of 108 seats in the Senate and 28 out of 172 in the House of Representatives, up from nine and seven in 2018.

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Other parties performing well were Colombia‘s traditional liberal and conservative parties, which had lost influence in recent years after dominating the country until 1991 when a new opened the political space for other political contenders.

In Colombia, which many observers consider one of Latin America‘s most conservative , left-leaning politics never to gain much ground. Therefore, the results indicate a potentially historic shift since a party with a distinct leftist platform and identity performed strongest for the first time. 

The Electoral Prospects of Gustavo Petro

The results emphasize the chances of Gustavo Petro, the leader of the Pacto Historico, to become Colombia‘s next president since he won the group’s primary with 80.5%. Over the last two years, Petro has been the consistent front in all presidential election polls. He was a  of the urban revolutionary guerilla group M-19, which demobilized in the early 1990s, and later became a senator and  of Bogota, Colombia‘s capital, from 2012 to 2015. In 2018, Petro was a presidential candidate but lost in the round to Ivan Duque from the right-wing Democratic Center party.

However, the recent results and Pacto Historico’s strong performance show that a win of the left is more likely this time. Many Colombians feel it is for political change after decades of right-leaning governments. Two of nationwide protests swept the country in 2019 and 2021, demanding, amongst others, wide-reaching social and economic and intensified state protection against the killings of social activists. In the climate of national outrage, a president from the left suddenly seems not so out of place anymore. 

While no one doubts that Petro will gain sufficient votes to reach the second round of presidential elections, the recent results show that he will need to convince Colombians from the center to vote for him too. Petro has already indicated after the election his move toward the center, to “invite all the democratic forces that are not yet in the Pacto … we must give way to a large, broad and democratic front.”

The primary elections have also revealed Petro’s contenders. Although some presidential candidates to remain outside of the primaries, Petro’s key rivals will be the of the rightist and, to a lesser extent, of the centrist primary elections. Both centrist Sergio Fajardo and right-leaning Federico “Fico” Gutierrez have been mayors of Medellin, Colombia‘s second-largest city in the past. While Fajardo draws support from the wealthy and well-educated urban middle and upper classes, Gutierrez relies on the votes from Colombia‘s large conservative sectors and its stronghold, the department of Antioquia.

The End of Uribism?

The elections also showed that the influence of , a right-wing populist political movement named after Alvaro Uribe, Colombia‘s president from 2002 to 2010, is vanishing. Uribe’s presidency was most known for the regaining ground against several leftist guerrilla groups and between state and right-wing paramilitary forces resulting in human rights violations. Uribe was for the last decade seen as the most influential politician in Colombia, a campaign against the 2016 peace agreement between the government and the FARC guerrilla group, and a key of President Duque.

Uribe himself, who in 2018 most votes of any elected senator, did not run again amidst a judicial against him for bribing witnesses and procedural fraud. The political party associated with the movement, the Democratic Center, which in the previous Congress was the strongest, fourth in the recent elections. The party suffered from the notorious unpopularity of the Duque administration, which has disapproval of over 75%. “I am the main person responsible [for the loss of seats] due to my damage to [the party’s] reputation,” Uribe last week. 

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The party’s presidential candidate, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, who did not participate in the primary elections of the rightist coalition, has his campaign and is supporting Gutierrez instead.

A Similar Trend Across Latin America

Should Colombia vote for Petro, the result would confirm recent across Latin America. Since 2018, leftist presidential candidates have elections in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Honduras, Mexico, Panama and Peru. Likewise, current polls for Brazil’s elections in October this year a landslide win of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a former president from the Workers’ Party, over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

Over the following weeks, campaigning will become more intensified. In the highly polarized country, many participants in large-scale protests during recent years feel that with Petro, a politician their needs could potentially assume power for the first time. Should their hopes amount to nothing and Colombia remain with a right-wing government, a reemergence of mass-scale protests is likely, which in the past resulted in severe police and human rights violations. With the probable outcomes being Colombia‘s first leftist government or nationwide protests, the country faces some truly historic elections ahead.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Colombia Takes First Step in Joining Latin America’s Left Turn appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

The United Nations Charter established the principles of the inviolability of borders, respect for the territorial integrity of states and the prohibition of the use of force. When Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in 1991, its borders were formally guaranteed by Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. Now, one of those guarantors is deliberately breaching those borders — for a second time.

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The Helsinki Conference of 1975 reaffirmed the respect of borders in Europe, and it gave birth to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which Russia is a member of. Its charter confirms the above-mentioned UN principles. The Helsinki Final Act goes on to : “They [states] also have the right to belong or not to belong to international organizations, to be party or not to bilateral or multilateral treaties including the right to be party or not to treaties of alliance.” The Russian pretext for war — to stop Ukraine from joining NATO and the European Union — is a direct contradiction of this Helsinki principle.

Many, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, hoped the conflict would be a short one. Yet it looks increasingly like becoming a long war of attrition, much like World War I, where most of the deaths were caused by missiles and shells falling for the sky. This sort of conflict can grind on for months and even years until all is ruined.

The Impact Beyond Ukraine

The devastation will be felt far from Ukraine. Between them both, Ukraine and Russia 25% of the wheat traded in the world. Around 12% of all calories consumed around the globe derive from crops grown in Russia and Ukraine. It is impossible to sow and harvest crops on a battlefield. Indeed, both belligerent nations are likely to keep any crops they can grow for the use of their own beleaguered people.

The effect of this on bread prices will be dramatic. Some 75% of all the wheat in Turkey and 70% in Egypt comes from Russia or Ukraine. Israel and Tunisia are also dependent on them for half of their supplies from the same sources. We can expect bread riots and renewed political instability in these countries.

The effect of the war will be increased social tensions everywhere. The higher fuel and food prices that are flowing directly from the conflict will affect poorer families much more than richer ones as these items are a bigger share of the weekly budget in low-income households. They will also hit rural households much harder because people have to rely on a private car to obtain the necessities of life.

The cost of replacement motor vehicles will rise because of shortages of minerals like aluminum, titanium, palladium and nickel, of which Russia is a major supplier. This will hit łŇ±đ°ůłľ˛ą˛Ô˛â’s car industry hard. Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Finland will be disproportionately hit by the loss of Russian markets for their exports.

°äłóľ±˛Ô˛ąâ€™s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — creating a land-based route for Chinese exports to Western Europe — is being radically disrupted by a war that cuts right across the BRI’s road westward, and whose effects are being felt all the way from the Baltic to the Black Sea. The continuance of this war is not in °äłóľ±˛Ô˛ąâ€™s interests.

The Possible Way to Peace in Ukraine

The longer the conflict goes on, the more the sanctions on Russia will begin to sap its war-making capacity. Supplies of missiles and shells will become progressively harder to pay for. Those supplying weaponry to Ukraine have deeper pockets. This is the significance of ¸éłÜ˛ő˛őľ±˛ąâ€™s overtures to China.

These overtures are an opportunity. China has an incentive to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, and so does Turkey. Of course, timing will be crucial. But the ingredients of such a deal, where there is no trust at all between the parties, are much harder to describe.

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Ukraine could perhaps find a formula to give up Crimea, but it can hardly concede an inch in eastern Ukraine. Russian-language rights in Ukraine could be guaranteed, but what has Russia to offer in return? Perhaps reparations for the physical damage that the Russians have done to Ukraine’s infrastructure. Ukraine could join the EU but not NATO, with ¸éłÜ˛ő˛őľ±˛ąâ€™s encouragement, which would be a major U-turn for Moscow.

None of these compromises are palatable, but they are preferable to a war of attrition that could go on for years until all the participants are exhausted or dead.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Is Peace Possible in Ukraine? appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Although South Korea has reduced its prior strict , the percentage of critically ill patients is less than the country’s last peak in December 2021. The key question now is what the South Korean public thinks about the government’s COVID-19 response.

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South Korea’s 2020 national assembly election was internationally praised for balancing ease of voting amid pandemic restrictions and provided a blueprint for other countries, with President Moon Jae-in’s administration largely praised for its efficient response to the pandemic. South Korea even allowed citizens who have tested positive to cast a ballot at the polls once they , even if voting had officially ended. 

However, with cases rising in late 2021, evaluations of the Moon administration’s handling have soured, although still hovering around 40% — the  in the country’s democratic history for an outgoing president and similar to his vote share in 2017. Yet Yoon and the Democratic Party’s Lee Jae-myung, both polling  in the run-up to the election,  to outline any pandemic response plan until November, when there was already a shortage of hospital beds — likely a result of the government’s “living with COVID” plan. 

Similarly, minor candidates have not presented clear COVID-19 policies. Even beyond the “living with COVID” strategies, candidates have not shared concrete plans to build back infrastructure after the public health crisis. 

To understand South Korean evolving perceptions of COVID-19 policies, we conducted a pre-election web survey of 945 South Koreans on February 18-22 via Macromill Embrain using quota sampling on gender, region and age. We asked respondents to evaluate on a five-point Likert scale the following statement: “I am satisfied with the South Korean government’s response to the coronavirus ´ÇłÜłŮ˛ú°ů±đ˛ą°ě.”

We found, at best, mixed support for the government’s response, with overall disagreement outpacing agreement — 43.6% versus 35.8%. As before, perceptions deviate on party identification, with supporters of the ruling Democratic Party (DP) largely satisfied with the response (64.8%), while supporters of the main conservative party, the PPP, are largely dissatisfied (71.4%). 

Supporters of the two smaller parties, the progressive Justice Party and the center-right People’s Party, showed responses that were more mixed, perhaps because candidates had not emphasized COVID-19 policies in campaign rhetoric. Regression analysis finds that women and older respondents are more supportive of COVID-19 policies, while after controlling for age, gender, education, income and political ideology, supporters of the DP were still more likely to evaluate pandemic policies favorably while PPP supporters were less likely to do so. 

Noting this partisan divergence, we next wanted to identify whether views on COVID policy may have indirectly influenced support for one candidate over another. Regression analysis finds that even after controlling for demographic factors and party identification, satisfaction with COVID-19 policies negatively corresponds with voting for Yoon and positively for Lee. 

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However, we also found that views of COVID-19 policies largely correspond with evaluations of President Moon’s job performance, questioning whether these measures were driving evaluations of Moon or whether perceptions now may simply be picking up sentiments regarding Moon irrespective of the actual policies. Further analysis shows that including evaluations of Moon’s performance in our earlier statistical models results in the COVID-19 evaluation failing to reach statistical significance. 

Whereas COVID-19 policies  Moon Jae-in’s party in 2020 win a clear majority in the national assembly, our evidence suggests evaluations now may have contributed to an anti-incumbency vote even as both of the major candidates lack clear policy prescriptions related to the pandemic. Regardless, President-elect Yoon will need to address a changing COVID-19 environment amid a fatigued and divided Korean public.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post COVID-19 Policies Carry Implications for South Korea’s Presidential Election appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

For anyone who wants to explain away India’s conduct at the United Nations as an act of national interests, there is more to consider. India is sliding deeper into Hindu — as opposed to a diverse Indian — nationalism, diminishing its ability to be a long-term partner for Western nations.

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India’s slowing economic growth, declining investment in its military capabilities and social unrest have prevented the country from modernizing its army and fulfilling its strategic goals. But it is the ideology of its current leaders that is jeopardizing the notion of India as a dependable partner of the US in the Indo-Pacific region. 

Instead of investing in human capital and health care, the focus of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has been on history through crowdsourcing. Instead of further opening the Indian economy through policies and reforms that would boost growth, and regulatory policies are rising. India is slipping on the global freedom and democracy indices, with Freedom House downgrading it to “.”

“Undivided India”

Leaders of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continue to mobilize India’s majority Hindus to vote for it by targeting religious minorities, particularly Muslims and Christians. They describe Hinduism as an Indian religion, while Islam and Christianity are denigrated as “foreign” faiths transplanted onto India’s soil. Extremist Hindu leaders, including some from the ruling party, have even gone so far as to call for against 200 million Indian Muslims. 

A 2021 Pew Survey on “” demonstrated that tolerance for other faiths remains strong within Indian society. But a larger number of the majority (Hindus) now see religion as the core of their identity and support calls for a Hindu rashtra (state). This creates a dilemma for relations between India and other countries.

For example, Pushkar Singh Dhami, the chief minister of the state of Uttarakhand, which borders Tibet and Nepal, was embroiled in controversy for something he posted on Twitter six years ago. The showed a map claiming South and Southeast Asia as part of an “undivided India,” known as Akhand Bharat. In December 2021, an Indian broadcaster the entire region from the Middle East through South and Southeast Asia as belonging to Akhand Bharat, representing the reunification of territories influenced by India during ancient times.

This undermines India’s projection of itself as a pluralist and open society, where minorities were respected, not just tolerated. For six decades after independence in 1947, India’s pluralism created a groundswell of respect, goodwill and admiration throughout the free world. Even India’s non-alignment during the Cold War did not interfere with its positive image. Most Americans appreciated Indian democracy and diversity and showed understanding when poverty-ridden India preferred not to side with the United States against the Soviet Union.

Things Have Changed

But things have changed since the end of the Cold War. India has made significant progress in reducing poverty. For two decades, there has been talk of India as a rising power. Americans have expected India to boost its economic growth, modernize its military and play a bigger role in confronting China. In 2010, President Barack Obama relations between India and the United States as the “defining partnership of the 21^st ł¦±đ˛ÔłŮłÜ°ů˛â.”

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That desire keeps getting thwarted by India’s leadership, particularly Prime Minister Modi and his allies in the BJP. Thus, India’s economic growth has slowed down, even before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and is unlikely to recover quickly. More significantly, India continues to expand trade with China, $125 billion in 2021. This is despite °äłóľ±˛Ô˛ąâ€™s military on India along their disputed border. That should lay to rest the expectation of India confronting China anytime soon.

Moreover, the commitment to democracy, human rights and liberal values, which made India a natural Western partner, appear under increasing threat.

Americans who have spent the last few years praising India also need some appraising of India. It might be time to acknowledge that India’s performance has been underwhelming to merit the kind of expectations that have formed the basis of recent US policy.   

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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Water World: Is Climate Change Driving Our Future Out to Sea?

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Burning fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere, making them major contributors to climate change. On the other hand, high industrial activities, alongside rapidly increasing populations, put growing pressure on energy demand.

The Example of Qatar

Qatar has made remarkable economic achievements over the past few decades. Yet Qatar is facing a trade-off between boosting its economic growth and lowering its carbon dioxide emissions. Its strategic mandate to boost economic development, along with other areas related to sustainability, makes Qatar an interesting country to analyze.

The World Bank defines Qatar as one of the richest countries in the world in terms of GDP per capita. Its economy is highly dependent on oil and gas production, which for more than 50% of GDP, 85% of export earnings and 70% of government revenues. The country is also a major player in liquefied natural gas. Nonetheless, Qatar’s high dependence on fossil fuels has resulted in an in the CO2 emissions level when compared to global averages.

To combat the rising carbon emission percentages and lower environmental pressures, Qatar is introducing strict policy measures to achieve sustainable development through four central pillars: economic, social, human and environmental development. While many disruptions have occurred over the past few years, including fluctuations in oil and gas prices, economic downturns and a deadly pandemic, nobody expected an economic blockade.

The Diplomatic Rift

In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt cut diplomatic relations with Qatar. They prohibited Qatar-registered planes and ships from utilizing their airspace and sea routes, and the Saudis also blocked Qatar’s only land border.

This point is of particular importance as the deterioration in relations among the Gulf neighbors urged Qatar to rethink its sustainable development goals while meeting local demand. At the beginning of the blockade, the country relied heavily on importing several commodities, especially food items. Later, it accelerated initiatives and programs to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on imports.

Achieving carbon neutrality is also factored into all Qatar’s initiatives. For example, by the end of 2022, Qatar aims to deliver the first carbon-neutral FIFA World Cup in the history of the event. All stadiums and infrastructure are subjected to rigorous sustainability standards. Several air quality monitoring stations and extensive recycling programs are being introduced, along with the construction of the eight stadiums that will be used during the football tournament.

Qatar has since become much more independent across several sectors, including food production and transport, making it a case study on how to transform challenges into opportunities for growth.

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This was also evident with total carbon emissions. According to my own analysis, carbon emission per capita fell by 13% as of 2018 from a historical record in 2000. Since then, total carbon emissions have increased as the economy has grown but at a slower rate, meaning that Qatar is undergoing expanding relative decoupling. In the 2008 to 2018 period, a 1% change in GDP resulted in a fall of CO2 emissions, from 0.65% to 0.44%. This drop is very relevant to Qatar as several measures have been applied, particularly over the last 10 years, to reduce emissions.

A Reduction in Emissions

While Qatar’s total emissions have declined over recent years, policies to increase energy efficiency, diversify the energy mix by introducing more renewables, support technological development to improve energy efficiency in a desert climate, and implement energy demand management programs to maintain the same trend of decline and achieve climate change objectives have been increasingly crucial.  

The heightened pressure caused by the blockade on Qatar is now over, but what is needed are more synergies and collective efforts across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to stimulate economic diversification and minimize carbon emissions. Member states of the GCC are sharing multiple environmental, social and economic factors that should incentivize them to cooperate to meet their climate change objectives and economic development goals.

*[Saad Shannak is a scientist at Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute, part of Hamad Bin Khalifa University (HBKU) in Qatar. The views expressed are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the university’s official stance.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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Clubs such as the G7 itself and the “climate club” envisaged by the German presidency are often able to make quicker decisions and act faster than more inclusive multilateral organizations such as the United Nations. Despite this, a speedboat, for all its pace and maneuverability, cannot cross the ocean on its own. So, too, the G7 cannot tackle any global challenges alone.

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The German G7 presidency has thus announced in its program that it intends to forge close links with the UN and the G20 in particular, with the goal of achieving a “fair and rules-based multilateralism.” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also underscored the importance of pioneering initiatives and partnerships within the framework of an “inclusive and networked multilateralism.”

In his , â€śOur Common Agenda,” building on the commitments in the  adopted by the member states on the occasion of the UN’s 75^th  anniversary, Guterres develops numerous ideas for how to strengthen international cooperation. He  for progress to be made wherever there are common interests.

So, is what belongs together growing together? Unfortunately not (yet), as the G7 program is rather abstract and dutiful in its references to the UN. However, the German G7 presidency has an opportunity to change this and implement shared priorities on a collective basis.

Tether “Strong Alliances for a Sustainable Planet” to the UN

Both the G7 and the UN are opting for pioneer projects and partnerships with non-governmental stakeholders, such as the COVAX vaccination drive and the G7 initiative for infrastructure projects in poor countries. It is positive to see the UN secretary-general not shying away from dealing with these formats and advocating for their greater use in order to implement global goals, most notably those of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the 2015 Paris climate agreement. While many UN member states may support such partnerships, there is no  on this kind of multilateralism beyond mere inter-governmental relations.

In order to achieve the greatest possible impact, it is important for the G7 that as many states as possible consider its initiatives to be beneficial and legitimate. To this end, it would be worthwhile to tether these initiatives to the UN system, which would ensure that partnerships meet human rights standards, are transparent in their design, monitored on an ongoing basis and further developed in line with the needs of the target groups.

The UN secretary-general has proposed strengthening the existing UN Office for Partnerships, which is not currently in a position to carry out the aforementioned tasks. After the failure of earlier reform attempts, due not least to financing issues, digital solutions are now to be employed. The G7 should support the development of an effective UN hub and link its own initiatives through this hub. This could help the G7 generate acceptance and, at the same time, galvanize other partners. By subjecting partnerships to this kind of quality control, the UN could strengthen its central role in global governance.

“Investing in a Better Future” — With the UN

Like the German G7 presidency, the UN secretary-general places a particular focus in his report on future issues in conjunction with matters of justice. The world organization needs to become far better at avoiding shipwreck — that is the UN must respond more inclusively and justly to acute and future transnational crises. Developing greater strategic foresight, taking increased account of the interests of young people and future generations, and bringing key players together quickly in the event of the outbreak of new crises — these are the ambitious proposals for placing the UN further into the center of global problem-solving.

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Here, too, the member states are divided when it comes to the increase in authority and knowledge for the UN that would go hand in hand with these measures. The issue of upgrading the UN is also contested within the G7 due to concerns about effectiveness and sovereignty and given the influence of states such as China and Russia.

In view of overlapping interests with regard to major concerns for the future, the G7 should, nonetheless, insist upon pooling the existing capabilities of the UN system more effectively, while at the same time supporting the targeted development of the UN’s strategic capacities politically and financially. This can be done via voluntary contributions or, beneficially in some cases, the  of the regular budget. In 2021, the G7 committed in the  to make crisis management more effective and fair in the future. This year, the G7 should discuss the role of the United Nations in this.

Currently, member states are  in the UN General Assembly which of the secretary-general’s proposals they intend to support, while preparation processes for the G7 summit are also underway. It is time to consider processes as one whole and bring them together for a future-proof multilateralism.

*[This  was originally published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), which advises the German government and Bundestag on all questions relating to foreign and security policy.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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A 2021 poll from the  found that 95% of Americans believed that the spread of misinformation was concerning, with over 70% blaming, among others, social media companies. Though Americans overwhelmingly agree that misinformation must be addressed, why is there little public consensus on the appropriate solution? 

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To address this, we ran a national web survey with 1,050 respondents via Qualtrics, using gender, age and regional quota sampling. Our research suggests several challenges to combating misinformation. 

First, there are often misconceptions about what social media companies can do. As private entities, they have the legal right to  on their platform, whereas the First Amendment applies only to government restriction of speech. When asked to evaluate the statement “social media companies have a right to remove posts on their platform,” a clear majority of 58.7% agreed. Yet a partisan divide emerges, where 74.3% of Democrats agreed with the statement compared to only 43.5% of Republicans.  

Ignorance of the scope of the First Amendment may partially explain these findings, as well as respondents believing that, even if companies have the legal right, they should not engage in removal. Yet a history of tech companies initially couching policies as consistent with free speech principles only to later backtrack adds to the confusion. For example, Twitter once  â€śa devotion to a fundamental free speech standard” of content neutrality, but by 2017 had shifted to a policy where not only posts could be removed but even accounts without . 

Second, while most acknowledge that social media companies should do something, there is little agreement on what that something should be. Overall, 70% of respondents, including a majority of both Democrats (84%) and Republicans (57.6%), agreed with the statement that “social media companies should take steps to restrict false information online, even if it limits freedom of information.”

We then asked respondents if they would support five different means to combat misinformation. Here, none of the five proposed means mentioned in the survey found majority support, with the most popular option — providing factual information directly under posts labeled as misinformation — supported only by 46.6% of respondents. This was also the only option that a majority of Democrats supported (56.4%).

Moreover, over a fifth of respondents (20.6%) did not support any of the options. Even focusing just on respondents that stated that social media companies should take steps failed to find broad support for most options. 

So what might increase public buy-in to these efforts? Transparent policies are necessary so that responses do not appear ad hoc or inconsistent. While many users may not pay attention to terms of services, consistent policies may serve to counter perceptions that efforts selectively enforce or only target certain ideological viewpoints.

Recent research finds that while almost half of Americans have seen posts labeled as potentially being misinformation on social media, they are wary of  because they are unsure how information is identified as inaccurate. Greater explanation of the fact-checking process, including using multiple third-party services, may also help address this concern.

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Social media companies, rather than relying solely on moderating content, may also wish to include subtle efforts that encourage users to evaluate posting behavior. Twitter and Facebook have already nodded in this direction with prompts to suggest users should  articles before sharing them. 

Various crowdsourcing efforts may also serve to signal the accuracy of posts or the frequency with which they are being fact-checked. These efforts attempt to address the underlying hesitancy to combat misinformation while providing an alternative to content moderation that users may not see as transparent. While Americans overwhelmingly agree that misinformation is a problem, designing an effective solution requires a multi-faceted approach. 

*[Funding for this survey was provided by the Institute for Humane Studies.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Getting the Public Behind the Fight on Misinformation appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

There is a multitude of factors that contributed to the increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, anxiety and depression rose dramatically among the general population, and alcohol consumption often increases for those who use it as a way to cope. “Stress and boredom likely were main drivers for a substantial increase in alcohol intake,” explains Dr. Jagpreet Chhatwal, associate director of the Massachusetts General Hospital’s Institute for Technology Assessment and assistant professor at Harvard Medical School.

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Measures that were designed to help businesses stay afloat during the pandemic may have also affected drinking habits. According to Chhatwal, “cocktails-to-go laws that allowed customers to pick up mixed cocktails at local bars and direct-to-consumer laws that allowed liquor stores to deliver alcohol directly to homes” point to a potential link between access and consumption. 

Regardless of the reason, these numbers are going to translate to significant morbidity and mortality rates for Americans in the future. According to new a by researchers at Harvard’s Massachusetts General Hospital published in Hepatology, due to the pandemic uptick in alcohol use, there will be close to 20,000 cases of liver failure, 1,000 cases of liver cancer and 8,000 deaths over the next two decades. 

Addressing this pressing issue will be complicated in a country that has long glamorized the use of alcohol among its population. From Super Bowl advertisements to film and music references, alcohol has long been associated with celebration, letting loose and having a good time. Consuming alcohol, even excessively, is normalized to the point that it is integrated into daily life on a regular basis: after-work happy hours, relaxing at home, birthdays, weddings, sporting events, etc. Alcohol has become so fused into the fabric of American society that in 2019, the industry was already over $250 billion.

Putting a positive spin on alcohol is dangerous because it creates the mirage that there are no negative consequences on a person’s physical or mental health, which is both untrue and potentially harmful. “Not everyone is aware of the safe drinking limits or realizes when to stop,” says Chhatwal. Excessive drinking can cause a myriad of health problems including high blood pressure, heart attacks, stroke, increase the risk for cancer, liver and GI problems, a weakened immune system, depression and anxiety as well as socialization issues and job loss.

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In a country where more than 14 million American adults 18 years and older had a , according to statistics from National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, the challenge will be raising awareness, confronting a booming business model and reevaluating new laws that made alcohol more accessible during the pandemic.

In Chhatwal’s opinion, “One of the foremost steps is to create awareness about the risk of an increase in alcohol consumption, especially high-risk drinking among women and minority populations who are more vulnerable.” He also stressed the importance of enlisting primary care providers to do more extensive screening for alcohol consumption patterns. There is also an obligation to take a hard look at new laws: “We need to evaluate the effect of cocktail-to-go and direct-to-consumer laws — if such laws contribute to increased drinking then there is a need to make policy-level changes.”

*[The Wider Lens provides commentary on trending stories in the world of health, covering a wide variety of topics in medicine and health care.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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A total of 1,009 voters, including 58 delegates chosen by regional councils and known as “great electors,” took part in the first stage of voting, which will be repeated every day until a consensus is reached. A clear vote is unlikely to be reached before Thursday as cross-party negotiations are still underway and the majority of lawmakers have decided to cast a blank vote as a delaying action amid intense backroom talks.

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Usually a symbolic formality, Italy’s presidential election is this time a focus of special attention by media and citizens, as the country’s fragile national unity and political balance depend on its outcome. The vote comes at a pivotal time, as the country has recently agreed to an EU-sponsored ($213 billion) program of economic and social reforms aimed at rebooting its national economy.

Among the top contenders is Prime Minister Mario Draghi, a former president of the European Central Bank, who has openly  his willingness to run for the job. For Draghi, a seven-year presidential term is undoubtedly more appealing than ending his mandate with a disorderly, mixed coalition ahead of general elections next year.

But parties are reluctant to vote for Draghi as his eventual election as president and resignation as prime minister could lead to snap general elections. His exit as head of government, a role he was appointed to by Mattarella in February 2021 after the collapse of the so-called Conte II cabinet, in favor of the presidency could bring Italy back to a new phase of instability and political uncertainty. 

Why Does This Election Matter?

In recent decades, Italy’s national politics has undergone profound transformation concerning the structure and ideologies of both parties, and the role of the president has become increasingly important. Beyond exercising moral authority, representing national unity and being the guarantor of the independence and integrity of the nation, as defined by the Italian Constitution, the head of state takes charge during a political crisis.

The president has the authority to select the new prime minister, as Mattarella did last year in  Draghi to lead the country out of a political impasse after the resignation of technocratic Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. The president also has the authority to approve or deny the appointment of ministers who will form the new cabinet, and they can refuse mandates to weak coalitions and dissolve parliament, setting the country on the path to national elections.

Will the Government Fall Apart?

The situation is particularly delicate as it involves the stability and longevity of the current government and the possibility of early general elections. The outcome of the presidential vote may lead to different scenarios, potentially able to shift allegiances, disrupt existing coalitions and alter the balance of power among Italy’s political parties.

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If parliament fails to agree on a candidate, the vote will undoubtedly become a source of division between the left and the right, inevitably opening the path to a political rupture. 

The government’s collapse would not only damage Italy’s political equilibrium, but also impact the European Union. Brussels has heavily bet on Italy’s ability to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic — which rocked the economy and markets — endorsing prime minister Draghi’s national recovery and resilience plan.

What About Mario Draghi?

The presidential election is also important because it could represent a turning point in determining the political future of Prime Minister Draghi, who has provided a period of balance and good governance in Italian politics.

According to his supporters, choosing Draghi as the president and having him in office for the next seven years would increase the chances to keep markets stable, which would imply the prospect of long-term economic recovery and, at the same time, give Italy more credibility at a European and international level.

Yet, many lawmakers are pushing for President Mattarella to stay on for another year, arguing that this would be the best solution to guarantee the government’s stability until scheduled general elections in 2023.

Who Are the Other Contenders? 

As the prominent businessman and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi  his candidacy, saying that Italy could not afford further political division, far-right leaders Matteo Salvini (Northern League) and Giorgia Meloni (Brothers of Italy) are  a list of moderate right-wing figures. This includes former Senator Marcello Pera and ex-mayor of Milan Letizia Moratti as potential candidates, hoping to gain support from the center left.

Other possible contenders include Pier Ferdinando Casini, a long-serving centrist senator and former speaker of the lower house who reportedly has good cross-party relations, Marta Cartabia, a judge and former president of the Italian constitutional court currently serving as minister of justice, and Giuliano Amato, a former politician who served twice as prime minister and thrice as minister during the 1990s.

After the first three ballots, where a two-thirds majority is required (673 out of 1,009 voters), an absolute majority of 505 votes is enough for a candidate to be elected. Yet if the voting process continues past the end of Mattarella’s term, it would be clear that the presidential election has paved the way for another unpredictable political earthquake.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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There are two solutions: attract more immigrants and institutionalize flexible work arrangements, especially for older Americans who aren’t ready or able to leave their jobs.

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Unfortunately, politicians and employers have shown reluctance to embrace these common-sense solutions. Despite promises to make sweeping to US immigration policy, President Joe Biden has been unwilling or unable to roll back most of the extreme policies of the Trump administration. To be fair, in the cases where Biden and his team have to make some changes, they have been by Republican-appointed judges to reimpose these policies, as in the case of the “” policy.  

In the workplace, some employers have refused to institute flexible work policies, leading to employee on calls to return to the office. Additionally, last summer, in 26 — all but Louisiana led by — ended extra unemployment benefits from the American Rescue Plan two to three months earlier than federally required, with some explicitly stating that the unemployed are “lazy” and wanting to collect government benefits. Governor Mike Parson of Missouri in May 2021 that continuing these unemployment programs “only worsens the workforce issues we’re currently facing. It’s time that we end these programs that have incentivized people to stay out of the workforce.” 

However, with the US averaging around confirmed cases of COVID-19 each day over the last week, the pandemic is far from over. American families are at their breaking point. Rather than relying on outdated racist and classist ideas about immigration and government support for families, politicians and employers wanting to stimulate the economy should focus on creative solutions to what is clearly an unprecedented crisis.  ]

Immigrant Workers

One solution is to build on the existing labor force by welcoming more immigrant workers and providing better benefits for their labor. While immigrants continue to be employed at a than those who are US-born, they make up just over one-sixth of the total US labor force. Immigrants have been on the of the COVID-19 pandemic working as essential workers at all levels. But at the same time, many immigrants, particularly Asian, faced increased during the early days of the pandemic. 

Politicians and the American public alike often invoke the idea that we are a “.” While some might argue that we never have , immigrants are an important part of American society and deserve better opportunities and benefits available to them.

Many immigrants in the US are not eligible for benefits, which makes them more vulnerable. The Migration Policy Institute estimates that at least 6 million work in industries hardest hit during the pandemic. Additionally, immigrant families have a of being food insecure. Thus, while immigrants take care of us, we do not return the favor.  

Flexible Working

The early retirements of older workers are more likely tied to concerns about health and safety around COVID-19 and an increasing desire for remote , yet many are not prepared financially for retirement. It would not be surprising if many returned to the workforce, at least part-time, at some point in the coming years. 

Industries, corporations, foundations and employers would be wise to recruit retirees, even for part-time positions. The older population has a wealth of experience, knowledge and the aptitude to mentor younger workers and immigrants. For example, in one of retired surgeons, more than half of participants were interested in serving as mentors to new surgeons and most were willing to do so even without compensation. Similarly, for , mentoring is a valuable experience for both retirees and new teachers.  

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To be sure, attracting immigrant workers by offering competitive salaries and benefits, and meeting workers’ need for flexible work arrangements might require employers to temporarily cut back on profits. However, making these investments in workers would show that employers are forward-thinking and respect their contributions.

With US population growth, employers will have a smaller pool of potential employees and will therefore need to offer better working conditions to attract workers. Additionally, 2021 saw American workers striking and unionizing with rates not seen in , with attributing this, in part, to pandemic working conditions. In short, employers can create better working conditions by choice or by force.

Politicians could ease the burden on companies by incentivizing flexible working policies and making it easier for Americans to combine work and family. But — even better — they could ease the burden on workers by providing direct support through paid leave, housing support, universal health care and other programs that would allow for a better quality of life for Americans. These supports would also make part-time work a more realistic option and empower families to make their own decisions about how best to combine work and family at any age.  

Reimagine Society

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed us as individuals and as a society. We cannot simply “get back to normal” despite calls from and to do so. After all, the US alone will likely reach 1 million COVID-19 deaths in the months to come. 

If politicians and employers want to stay operational, we must take this chance to reimagine our society. This means putting people over profits and creating workplaces that are responsive to the needs of people and their whole selves. 

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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The global financial crisis and the euro crisis have shown that the single market would not function without the common currency, the euro — one reason being exchange rate differences. Even though the euro has not displaced the dollar from first place in the global monetary system, it protects the European economies from external shocks, that is, negative impacts from the global economy.

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Moreover, monetary integration has shown its advantages during the COVID-19 pandemic. Without the euro, some member states would not only face a demand and supply crisis, but also a sharp weakening of their currency, which could even lead to a currency crisis. This would make it extremely difficult to fight the pandemic and support jobs with public money.

The citizens of the EU seem to appreciate the stabilizing effect of the common currency. According to the May 2021 Eurobarometer , 80% of respondents believe that the euro is good for the EU; 70% believe that the euro is good for their own country.

Moreover, joining the euro area is seen as attractive: Croatia will most likely join the euro area in 2023. Bulgaria also aspires to join. Due to dwindling confidence in the currencies of Poland and Hungary, the introduction of the euro could become a realistic scenario in the event of a change of governments in these countries.

A Long List of Reforms

Despite these developments, many of the euro area’s problems remain unresolved 20 years after the currency changeover. The fundamental dilemma is between risk-sharing versus risk elimination. It is a question of how many more structural reforms individual member states need to undertake before deeper integration of the euro area, which implies greater risk-sharing among member states, can take place. In the banking sector, for example, the issue is to improve the financial health of banks — that is, among other measures to increase their capitalization and reduce the level of non-performing loans before a common deposit insurance scheme can be created.

A second problem is the relationship between monetary and fiscal policy. Currently, the European Central Bank is the main stabilizer of the euro area public debt, which increased significantly as a result of the pandemic, and it will remain so by reinvesting its holdings of government bonds at least until 2024. However, an alternative solution is needed to stabilize the euro area debt market.

Joint debt guarantees, as recently proposed by France and Italy, must be combined with incentives to modernize the economies, especially of the southern euro are countries. In this context, it is important to keep in mind the limits of fiscal policy, which is currently too often seen as the magic cure for all economic policy problems. Linked to fiscal policy are the questions of how many rules and how much flexibility are needed in the euro area.

Heated discussions are to be expected this year on the corresponding changes to the fiscal rules. This is because there is a great deal of mistrust between the countries in the north and south of the euro area, which is mainly due to the different performance levels of the economies and the different views on economic policy. The persistent inflation and the problems with the implementation of the NextGenerationEU stimulus package, which is supposed to cushion coronavirus-related damage to the economy and society, could exacerbate the disparities in economic performance and thus also the disagreements within the euro area.

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The euro crisis has shown that turbulence in one member state can have fatal consequences for the entire currency area. In the coming years, however, the biggest challenge for the euro area will not be the situation in small member states such as Greece, but in the largest of them. The economies of Italy, France, and Germany, which account for almost 65% of the eurozone’s gross domestic product, are difficult to reform with their complex territorial structures and increasing political fragmentation. At the same time, these economies lack real convergence.

A decisive factor for the further development of the euro currency project will be whether the transformation of their economic models succeeds under the influence of the digital revolution, the climate crisis, and demographic change.

*[This  was originally published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), which advises the German government and Bundestag on all questions relating to foreign and security policy.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post What Does the Future Success of the Euro Depend On? appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

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Rishi Sunak holds the economic future of the country in his hands through his control of the Treasury as chancellor of the exchequer. Kwasi Kwarteng is Sunak’s deputy, as secretary of state for business, energy and industrial strategy. Sajid Javid is in charge of fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.

Facing them across the House of Commons sits David Lammy, Labour’s shadow foreign secretary. Rosena Allin-Khan is Labour’s minister of mental health, and the woman charged with getting her party from the opposition into government is Shabana Mahmood, Labour’s national campaign coordinator.

Minority Representation

These men and women have little in common politically. Some are passionate capitalists, others fervent socialists. But all are members of Britain’s ethnic minorities. Some have family backgrounds in the Indian subcontinent. Others — an admittedly smaller number — can trace their roots to Africa. It is a little commented-upon fact that in Britain today, ethnic minorities are almost numerically represented in Parliament. Some 14% of the British population has an ethnic minority background, and 10% of MPs at the last general election in 2019 are black or Asian.

The key point is not simply the numbers, but rather that they are as likely to be found on in the governing Conservative Party as they are in the opposition Labour Party. Back in 1987, the situation was very different. Four ethnic minority MPs were elected that year: Diane Abbott, Paul Boateng, Bernie Grant and Keith Vaz. All were Labour members.

As the House of Commons Library , “Their number has increased at each general election since then — most notably from 2010 onwards … But if the ethnic make-up of the House of Commons reflected that of the UK population, there would be about 93 Members from ethnic minority backgrounds … Of the 65 ethnic minority Members, 41 (63%) are Labour and 22 are Conservatives (34%). There are two Liberal Democrat MPs from an ethnic minority background.” These MPs have not languished in obscurity. They have been promoted to the highest political offices of the land, by both major political parties.

The policies they would pursue could hardly be more different. Priti Patel has been roundly criticized by Labour for her virulent hostility to unrestricted migration and her determination to crack down on smuggling refugees over the English Channel from France. Her plans for “pushbacks” using the navy to deter migrants have been as “inhumane, unconscionable and extremely reckless.”

Patel’s background — her family came to Britain in the 1960s before dictator Idi Amin’s mass expulsion of Asians from Uganda in 1972 — appears to have had little influence on her opinions or policies. Little wonder that she is a of the Conservative right and a potential successor to Boris Johnson as prime minister.

Zero Tolerance

The significance of the rise of Britain’s ethnic minorities through the ranks is that neither of the two main parties that dominate the country’s politics can any longer tolerate the kind of overt racism that was once a regular part of British culture. Patel and Allin-Khan may be poles apart politically, but neither would accept policies of the kind that once were espoused by the likes of the Enoch Powell.

His notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech from 1968, in which he warned against the impact not just of immigration but also of a bill before Parliament designed to fight racism, was widely welcomed. The Conservative right hailed him as a champion, and Labour-supporting London dockers marched to Parliament to show their support.

Does this imply that racism in Britain is a thing of the past? Emphatically not. But given Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, it means that only fringe parties, with little chance of winning seats in Parliament, are likely to take up the issue.

Overt racism is still nurtured by a section of British society. The Brexit referendum in 2016 brought out the worst in some communities. The attacks on Poles were particularly disgraceful, given the bravery of their , over 8,000 of whom fought in the critical Battle of Britain over the skies of England during World War II. No fewer than five neo-Nazi groups are banned in the UK, with Patel “evil white supremacist groups, who target vulnerable people across the world.” A third of all uncovered in Britain emanate from the far right.

None of this should be ignored. It is not inconceivable that overtly racist politics will rear its head once more in Britain, but neither the Conservative Party nor Labour is likely to support it. Only in extreme circumstances are they likely to flourish. As such, it may be that British politics can today be considered post-racial.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Has Britain Achieved a Post-Racial Politics? appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Despite the disruption to education as we know it, there is something positive to have emerged from the chaos: the cancelation of exams, sending a wave of relief to children and their parents. The only disappointed ones are some parents who feel robbed of the glory their kids bring by acing exams.

It’s Time to Make India’s Education Good Enough for All

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It may have been inconceivable in pre-coronavirus times to think of an exam-free education system, but we are now faced with the possibility of exploring it. Just imagine how much unnecessary stress it would save children, parents and teachers. It would also free up time for students to pursue personal interests and hobbies and expand their knowledge beyond the classroom.

The Issue With Exams

The focus on time in the classroom to prepare for exams has led to a crisis in education. There are four key problems to address.

First, it is high time that examinations are recognized as the biggest scam in education. This is not in reference to mass or buying of certificates in countries like India. We should be questioning the very raison-d’ĂŞtre of testing in the current education system. Why do we need exams? A teacher should be the best judge of a student’s level of understanding. An evaluation, if at all, should be built on assignments and participation instead of one based on written or oral tests.

Once upon a time, a man called Albert Einstein on how a student‘s overall performance is a far better indicator of their achievements. â€śThe teachers’ impression of a student derived during the school years, together with the usual numerous papers from assignments — which every student has to complete — are a succinctly complete and better basis on which to judge the student than any carefully executed examination,” he said.

Second, if we are truly interested in children succeeding in school, then education must be rich in content and relevance and accomplished through quality instructional time. Unfortunately, as the use of testing has become the norm to evaluate students, classroom time is dedicated to helping kids prepare for exams. This can often result in the narrowing of the curriculum as teachers are focused on topics that are part of the test. As a result, children are not taught other valuable information to broaden their knowledge.

Third, the current testing regime does nothing to address social and economic inequality; it only reinforces it. Children from low-income backgrounds who require further support are less likely to have access to additional resources at home. This includes a lack of support from parents who may be working more than one job, limited access to the internet or the financial inability to hire a private tutor. Exam pressure only exacerbates inequality and sets deprived children up to fail.

Fourth, exams represent a cruel process of elimination. Why should any child be eliminated from their right of getting an education just because they don’t achieve the highest grades? If the purpose of education is learning, then the task of a teacher is to ensure that all students learn, irrespective of the time and effort it might require. The fact is that exams lead to competition, which kills the spirit of learning. This system prioritizes individual achievement over collaborative learning, thus defeating the very premise of education with its focus on cooperation over competition.

The Examination Factory

Establishing an environment where each person is simultaneously a teacher and a student presents an opportunity to continually learn, not only from each other, but also from every situation. This would mean that interaction with everyone you meet, such as a shopkeeper, gardener, farmer or musician, can transform into a mutually enriching learning experience to develop skills that go beyond the classroom

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The damage being done by a culture of education built around examinations can be seen on both the surface and subliminal levels. On the surface, it divides children into achievers and underachievers from a young age. At the subliminal level, its effects can be traumatizing for children, resulting in a complete erosion of self-confidence for some and brutalization of personality for others. 

Since the model of modern education finds its roots in the Industrial Revolution, it tends to treat individuals as products and educational institutions as brands — and together they dictate the existing job market. It is hardly unusual that education itself has become a market for the affluent. Institutions, especially coaching centers that at times don on the dual responsibility of coaching as well as “educating,” have become mechanical factories that are expected to produce a definite quality of product — in this case, a student with high exam scores so that schools can reach their targets. Commercialization has led to mechanization, which has a harmful effect on human intellect and emotions. 

The pandemic has forced us to pause and rethink the way we have shaped our concept of education. Can we really educate children in overpopulated classes? With an inadvertent byproduct of COVID-19 being social distancing, it has paved the way for fewer students per classroom. This should, hopefully, result in a more empowering teacher-student relationship and put the brakes on the mechanized version of teaching we see today.

This model would be in sync with the one pioneered by ancient , a “residential school where pupils live near their guru or teacher.” Such a system would need more qualified and dedicated teachers. But if this model will save us from the COVID crisis, then perhaps it can also tackle the crisis in modern-day education.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post COVID Has Forced Us to Rethink Education and Exams appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Polexit: Is Poland on the Way Out of the EU?

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Freedom of movement in Europe was always something I took for granted. I saw Europe as part of our heritage, despite the grumblings of euroskeptics and sly articles in the British press about the perils of straight  and the metric system. 

I traveled a lot in my youth, but travel was never really the issue. Citizens of many countries from outside the EU can stay in the Schengen zone for up to 90 days without a visa. It wasn’t until 2009 that the  of being an EU citizen became obvious to me. 

Free to Work and Study in Europe 

I signed up for a master’s degree in Brussels, Belgium. The beauty of this was, as an EU citizen, the entire degree cost me only €500 ($560). It was taught in English and full of students from all over the world.

There was no paperwork to deal with, no need to prove income, no need to apply for any student visas. Education in Belgium was as open to me as education in my country of origin. And that would have been the same for education in any country in the EU. 

I stayed in Belgium for two years. During that time, I could work freely without any authorization. I taught English at the European Parliament. I also did a number of freelance jobs on the side. But I could have worked anywhere, from behind a bar, to the top levels of the European institutions. 

As an EU citizen, I had the right to live and work in Belgium, just as I did with any other country in the EU and the European Economic Area (EEA). No sponsorship needed, no work visa, no permission of any kind. 

I often traveled back and forth between London and Brussels. The Eurostar was, and still is, the best mode of transport. It takes you directly from the center of one capital into the center of the other. With an EU passport, going through immigration was quick and simple. In contrast, passport holders from outside the EU had to wait in a separate queue, all herded together. 

I didn’t use my EU freedom of movement rights again for 10 years. But that would be for the final time, as a big change was coming. 

The Vote That Changed Everything

In 2016, a majority of British voters decided the UK should leave the European Union. Millions of British citizens would soon lose their EU rights. People with Irish or other European relatives were desperately applying for second passports.

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The next few years were chaotic, full of political turmoil and tribalism. The Brexit referendum had the country down the middle, and things would never be the same again.

After the vote, there was a rapidly closing window of opportunity to move to the EU. I knew that was the only option for me. So, in the early weeks of 2020, I moved to Lisbon, the capital of Portugal. Time was running out by then, with the Brexit transition period in full swing. Within months, UK citizens would be officially relegated to third-country national status. 

There was no time to waste in securing  in Portugal. As an EU citizen, it was easy. I landed in Lisbon, took my passport and showed up at the nearest municipal office. Thirty minutes and €15 later, I had a five-year temporary residency document for Portugal. 

Portugal’s timeline is five years. All being well, that document will allow me to regain my EU rights sometime in 2025, this time as a proud citizen of Portugal — the country I chose.  

The EU project is far from perfect. Like any large-scale collaboration of humans, it’s fraught with issues. Yes, there’s corruption. Yes, there’s waste and inefficiency. Despite that, the EU is an ambitious project that emerged out of the devastation of the Second World War. The resulting economic cooperation has kept Europe peaceful ever since. In that sense, it’s doing exactly what it was designed to do.

Citizen of Another Somewhere

I don’t like nationalism. It’s too easily misused. And I can’t be proud of something that I didn’t achieve: the coincidence of being born on a certain piece of land. Does that mindset make me a “citizen of nowhere”? If so, that’s good. Thanks for the , Theresa. 

As the late John le Carre once said, “If you want to make me a citizen of nowhere, I will become a citizen of another somewhere.” An Englishman all his life, le Carre an Irish citizen, so disappointed was he at the fallout from Brexit. He was fortunate to have that Irish heritage. Not everyone does. And those that don’t have become second-class citizens in Europe.

National pride is artificially constructed to hold the nation-state together. It plays on our natural inclinations toward tribalism, which is merely an evolutionary hangover. Benedict Anderson’s classic book, “Imagined Communities,” explains these ideas better than I ever could.

Perhaps the EU is an “imagined community” too. But countries working together, no matter how flawed the process, is the only route we have to improving the world. It’s a project I’m determined to be part of. And if I can’t do so as a British citizen, then I’ll happily do so as a Portuguese. 

*[Samantha North is the founder of , an EU citizenship consultancy.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post The Value of EU Citizenship in a Post-Brexit World appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

A new published by JAMA Network reveals that the number of hospitalizations for eating disorders including anorexia, bulimia and binge-eating disorders, among others, increased dramatically during the pandemic. According to Dr. Kelly Allison, one of the researchers on the study and the director of the Center for Weight and Eating Disorders at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, the results “suggest that disordered eating became more severe in disorders of extreme restriction, as well as in those with loss of control eating.” What’s even more troubling is that the average age of the patients has decreased over time. 

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Eating disorders are mental health conditions typified by significant and persistent disturbances in eating behaviors, accompanied by distressing emotions. People who suffer from eating disorders often display a preoccupation with body weight and food intake. These disorders can affect people of all ages, racial and ethnic backgrounds as well as genders, although they are more common in girls and women. People are particularly vulnerable during the adolescence and teen years and are most often diagnosed between the ages of 12 and 35.  

There are many reasons why the COVID-19 pandemic created a breeding ground for eating disorders. For many people, eating habits changed significantly. Shopping at a grocery store was already incredibly stressful for the general population; for people with disordered eating behavioral patterns, it was most likely worse.

Those who restrict food intake may have limited their shopping excursions or curtailed their purchases; for those who binged, they may have the added temptation of bulk purchases of processed foods. “They were then in close proximity to that food all day while working or schooling from home, so the temptation to eat those foods was likely increased during this time,” says Allison.

Obesity is often cited as a for severe COVID disease and poor outcomes even in younger people. This news may have triggered disordered eating patterns in vulnerable people. Excess weight is often a modifiable risk factor and could have been the impetus for extreme dieting. “I have been overweight for a long time, hearing that extra pounds could land me on a ventilator in the hospital was enough for me to diet,” says Shaunda F., a 27-year-old mom from New York state. “I lost more than 12 pounds in two months at the beginning of the pandemic fearing for my life. I basically starved myself.”

There are other considerations with regard to an increase in the diagnosis of eating disorders and subsequent hospitalizations. Family members were able to pick up on pathological behaviors because they were together more frequently than normal. According to Allison, “Middle school, high school and college-aged individuals were home all day, and their eating behaviors and weight changes were more evident.” Under normal circumstances, these behaviors may have gone unnoticed but were more difficult to hide during the pandemic.  

Access to care was likely another factor responsible for the uptick in hospitalizations for eating disorders. “In the beginning of the pandemic, access was limited as providers were transitioning to virtual outpatient care,” says Allison. “This could have led to a time delay that progressed the severity of symptoms to a state where hospitalization was needed.”

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It is imperative that parents and loved ones have this issue on their radar screen, as treating disordered eating patterns often requires clinical intervention. Keeping an eye out for warning signs can be life-saving. “If someone you care about starts avoiding eating with family and friends, along with noticing changes in weight (sudden increases or decreases), these should be considered concerning,” Allison points out. Using a bathroom directly after a meal could be a red flag for vomiting or laxative use. Other include hoarding food, a preoccupation with body weight, food or calories, wearing baggy clothes to hide weight loss, frequent checking in the mirror, skipping meals, etc.

Regardless of the reason, the pandemic has driven a rise in eating disorders and, like with COVID-19, a lot depends on everyone doing their bit to make sure those at risk are protected.

*[The Wider Lens provides commentary on trending stories in the world of health, covering a wide variety of topics in medicine and health care.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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Will Saudi-Iran Talks Lead to Anything?

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After years of conflict that have caused one of the biggest migration crises since World War II, it is clear that the Assad government, with the support of Russia and Iran, will maintain its grip on power. The question now is what a post-war Syria will look like with President Assad and his regime still in office.

In order to understand what may lie ahead, it is necessary to understand the origins of the Assad family, their Alawite background and their influence on Syrian identity over the past 50 years.

The Alawite Community

The two largest sects in Islam are Sunni and Shia. Both sects overlap in most fundamental beliefs and practices, but their main difference centers on the dispute over who should have succeeded the Prophet Muhammad as leader after his death in 632. Today, 85% to of Muslims are Sunni and around 10% are Shia. Sunnis live in countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, Indonesia and Pakistan. Shias are largely located in Iran, Iraq, Bahrain and Azerbaijan, with significant minorities in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

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Alawites, although not doctrinally Shia, especially venerate Ali ibn Abi Talib, one of the earliest Muslims and the cousin and son-in-law of the prophet. Shias consider Ali to be the first imam and rightful successor to Prophet Muhammad, while Sunnis see him as the fourth rightly-guided caliph who made up the Rashidun Caliphate. Before the French took control of Syria in 1920, members of the Alawite community themselves to be Nusayris. The French “imposed the name �Alawite,’ meaning the followers of Ali,” to emphasize the sect’s similarities with Shia Islam.

Syria is ruled by Alawites, but the community itself is a minority making up around 12% to 15% of the pre-war Syrian . Sunnis account for the majority of the country.

The Rise of the Alawites

After Syria attained independence in 1946, the Alawite community began to play an active role in two key areas: political parties and the armed forces. On the one hand, the Baath party, founded in 1947 by Arab politicians and intellectuals to integrate Arab nationalism, socialism, secularism and anti-imperialism, “more attractive to Alawites than the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni religious organization” founded in Egypt with a large base in Syria.

Furthermore, Alawites and other minorities continued to be in the military due to two main factors. First, middle-class Sunni families tended to despise the military as a profession. Alawites, on the other hand, saw the army as an opportunity for a better life. Second, many Alawites, due to their difficult economic situation, could not afford to pay the fee to exempt their children from military service.

The Alawite presence in the army culminated in a series of coups in the 1960s. Supporters of the rising Baath party were a minority in Syria at the time. As scholar Rahaf Aldoughli , the regime embarked on a course of “rigorous state-nationalist indoctrination to consolidate Baathist rule and establish” its popular legitimacy. Among other efforts, “the Baathists sought to manipulate tribal and sectarian identities, seeking patronage by” upgrading the status of previously marginalized groups. This included the Alawite community.

The last coup d’Ă©tat in Syria was carried out by General Hafez al-Assad, who had been serving as defense minister and was an Alawite. His actions brought the minority to power in November 1970. Three months later, Assad became the first Alawite president of Syria.

Once in , “his project centered on homogenizing these diverse [marginalized] Syrians into a single imagined Ba’athist identity.” More broadly, Aldoughli adds, the overall aim of “nationalist construction was to subsume local identities into a broader concept of the â€�Syrian people,’ defined according to the state’s territorial” boundaries.

The Sectarianism of the Syrian Civil War

Shortly before the outset of the US-led war on terror, Hafez al-Assad died in 2000. His son, Bashar, took over the reins and continued in his father’s footsteps. This included policies of coopting the religious space and portraying a moderate Islam under the guise of a that sought to curb Islamism and blur religious differences. Despite these efforts, the confessional fragmentation of Syrian society provided a factor of tension and instability for a state that ultimately never succeeded in addressing these differences in the political arena.

The Arab Spring consequently arrived in Syria at a time marked by a crisis of of secular ruling parties such as the Baath. The crisis of governability meant the secular balance imposed by the regime in society began to crack, exposing anger around the Alawite minority’s overrepresentation in the state apparatus and the Sunni majority’s underrepresentation. The result was anti-government protests that began in March 2011.

Ultimately, the ensuing sectarianism of the Syrian conflict only makes sense if we also incorporate the affecting the region. On the one hand, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran are the Assad government’s main supporters and are interested in propping it up. On the other hand, Sunni actors such as the Islamic State group, the al-Nusra Front and Saudi Arabia want the government to fall.

That has failed. After 10 years of war, military forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad have retaken the vast majority of Syrian territory with the support of Iran and Hezbollah. As a result, both repression of the Sunni-dominated opposition and the strengthening of the Alawite community in the state apparatus are likely to remain part of a post-war Syria. How the Sunni majority reacts to the fact that Assad and the Alawites remain at the center of Syrian politics is unknown.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post The Assad Family Has Been Shaping Syria for 50 Years appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

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Until now, the negotiations have reportedly revolved around two main issues. The first is the restoration of diplomatic relations between both countries. Bilateral ties were cut off in 2016 when Saudi Arabia executed Nimr Baqir al-Nimr, a Saudi dissident who was a Shia cleric, and protesters in Tehran stormed the Saudi Embassy in retaliation. The second topic of discussion is the Yemen War, which entered a new phase with the 2015 Saudi-led intervention against Houthi rebels who had taken over the Yemeni capital, Sanaa.

For more than one year, the Saudis have been looking for a way out of Yemen. The enormous economic costs of the conflict became more when oil prices fell as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing lockdowns.

Even after the recovery of the hydrocarbon market, the fact remains that six years of war have not brought Saudi Arabia any closer to its two major goals in Yemen: reestablishing Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi as president and constraining the Houthis’ influence. Furthermore, US President Joe Biden, while not as tough on the kingdom as promised in his election campaign, has been less with Saudi Arabia than his predecessor, Donald Trump.

Who Are the Houthis?

The Saudis often present the Houthis as little more than Iranian puppets. Iran’s official is that the Houthi movement only receives ideological support from Tehran. Both narratives are inaccurate, to say the least.

The Houthis are a homegrown movement that successfully the Yemeni government’s military offensives from 2004 to 2010 without any external assistance. Hussein al-Houthi, the movement’s early leader and from whom its name is derived, was an of the 1979 Iranian Revolution and was influenced by its symbolism and ideology. His brother and current leader of the movement, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, has also his admiration for the Islamic Republic.

The first credible of Iranian military support for the Houthis date back to 2013. Until 2016, weapons transfers were largely restricted to light arsenal. In the following years, Tehran started to supply the Houthis with increasingly sophisticated missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) components. Furthermore, a contingent of Iranian Revolutionary Guards on the ground has been Houthi fighters. The Yemeni movement’s capacity to key strategical interests within Saudi Arabia, such as oil extraction facilities, pipelines and airports, cannot be understood without accounting for Iran’s role in the conflict.

At the same time, and contrary to Saudi claims, the Houthis are largely independent from Iran. Their territorial expansion in 2014 was politically built on its Faustian bargain with the former Yemeni president and arch-rival, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and the unpopularity of the Hadi government, which was backed by Saudi Arabia.

Moreover, most of the Houthis’ current arsenal has not been sourced from Iran. It has rather been acquired in the local — which is well-connected to the Horn of Africa’s smuggling routes — in battle or as a result of the of governmental military units to the Houthis. Before the war began, Yemen was already a country with small weaponry, coming only to the US in terms of weapons per capita.

According to the official Saudi narrative, the Houthis necessitate Iranian help to maintain their military effort. While this is most likely the case when it comes to the group’s capability to strike targets within Saudi territory, an abrupt end of Iranian military assistance to the Houthis would make little difference in Yemen’s internal balance of power.

What Saudi Arabia and Iran Need to Do

Saudi Arabia needs to come to terms with the fact that its attempt to impose a military solution in Yemen has failed. It has done so because of counterproductive airstrikes, support for unpopular local actors and a misunderstanding of internal dynamics. If Yemen has become Saudi Arabia’s quagmire, this has little to do with Iran’s limited support for the Houthis.

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Iran, for its part, should understand that its claims of non-interference in the Yemen War have gained a farcical nature over the years, as growing evidence has piled up on Iranian–Houthi ties. Iranian leaders cannot impose on the Houthis an end to attacks against Saudi territory. However, they can decisively constrain them by stopping the flow of UAV and missile technology to the Houthis, as well as ending their military training on the ground. In conjunction with this, Iran can support the direct Houthi–Saudi talks that began in late 2019.

For Saudi–Iranian negotiations to bear fruits in relation to the Yemen conflict, both sides need to show a realistic appraisal of Iran’s role in the war. It comes down to acknowledging two key facts. On the one hand, Iran has leverage over the Houthis because of its military support for the group. On the other hand, this leverage is inherently limited and cannot be used to grant Saudi Arabia a military victory in Yemen.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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The plights of indigenous people in other places are, in many ways, similar with those in the Americas. To this day, they still face challenges every day.

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According to , 370 million indigenous people across the world constitute about 5% of the global population, living in more than 90 countries and speaking over 4,000 languages. Wherever they live, they often face discrimination, oppression, exploitation, eviction and other human rights abuses. As expected, the COVID-19 pandemic has particularly impacted them due to poverty, lack of clean water and access to health services.

In much of the world, indigenous people suffer from high unemployment, poor education and domestic violence. They are often targeted for mistreatment and abuse and have the least access to health services compared with other groups. They are usually imprisoned disproportionately and some die in custody.

Around the World

In Australia, indigenous people constitute around of the population, but they form more than a of the prison population. Their children are more likely to be incarcerated than non-indigenous children.

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In the Americas, indigenous people are subjected to discrimination, harassment and violence, particularly in countries like , , Paraguay and Nicaragua, among others. They may also face unsubstantiated charges that include sabotage, terrorism and murder and are particularly, vulnerable to human trafficking. In Argentina, indigenous people are further deprived of their rights to ancestral lands. In Paraguay, they continue being evicted and denied their lands. In Peru, the killers of indigenous people are often not brought to justice.

Similarly, and the have discriminated, mistreated and manipulated their indigenous people. Both of these nations have exploited and mismanaged the assets of the native population. Canada has continued oppressing its indigenous people, confiscating their lands and eliminating their cultures.

In June, more than 600 unmarked graves were in Canada at a Catholic-run school for indigenous children that operated from 1899 to 1997. This followed a previous report of at another Catholic school that was open from the late 19^th century to 1969.

The Contributions of Native Americans

The contributions of indigenous peoples to the world are countless. Native Americans alone brought us many plants from beans and peanuts to pineapple and herbal medicines. They also greatly contributed to our democracy, the Founding Fathers in fashioning the US government. The Six Nations, known by the French as the Iroquois, provided a great example of participatory democracy where the government was truly founded on the consent of the governed.

The delegates from the 13 English colonies were inspired by the Native Americans who were endowed with a rich heritage over thousands of years that included counseling among the elders in the affairs of the tribes. As early as 1744, Canasatego, the Iroquois Confederation’s spokesman, the colonists on how to form a union in order to become a powerful confederation. The colonists listened to his advice in forming what became the United States of America.  

In 1751, Benjamin Franklin wrote a inspiring the 13 colonies to follow the Iroquois Confederacy in forming a union. John Hancock, speaking on behalf of the 1775 Continental Congress, expressed it well when he “the Six Nations are wise people. Let us harken to their Council and teach our children to follow it.” In 1988, the US Senate paid tribute to the Native Americans by saying that the “confederation of the original Thirteen Colonies into one republic was influenced by the political system developed by the Iroquois Confederacy as were many of the democratic principles which were incorporated into the Constitution itself.”

Giving Thanks

Those who live in democracies today, including the United States, owe a lot to Native Americans for their freedom. Indigenous peoples have served us well and deserve to be treated with respect, provided with the same opportunities and appreciated for their contributions to the world. We should work to ensure they have equal rights where they live and raise them out of poverty, enabling them to have access to clean water, hygiene and health services.

In the US, let us make this Thanksgiving Day special by embracing our Native Americans, paving the way to remedy some of their wounds. As Amnesty International recommends, we should follow other countries in the Americas by replacing Columbus Day with Indigenous Peoples Day in recognition of their contributions to the United States of America.

*[Dr. Mehdi Alavi is the founder and president of , a non-religious, non-partisan and charitable organization in the United States that promotes freedom and peace for all. It recently released its Civility Report 2021, which can be downloaded .]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Giving Thanks to Indigenous People appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin are also fueling this war rhetoric. Both countries are feigning concern about a perceived NATO troop concentration on the border with Belarus. According to reports, nuclear-capable Russian bombers have recently patrolled the Belarusian airspace. German policy should not fall into this trap of conjured-up militarization.

The Migrant Crisis on Poland-Belarus Border Is Lukashenko’s Revenge

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The frequent use of the term “hybrid warfare” fits in with a development that is increasingly shaping the discourse on security and defense policy in Germany and other EU and NATO states. It has become a commonplace belief that the boundaries between war and peace are becoming blurred.

War seems to be everywhere: There is talk not only of hybrid wars but also of information wars, cyberwars and economic wars. Almost every international dispute is interpreted in light of the ubiquitous paradigm of a “great power conflict,” with the potential for military escalation.

Not all of this is necessarily wrong, and much of it is not really new. But war is and remains at its core the organized use of military force for political ends. In the process, states and non-state actors have always used non-military means as a flanking measure to win the propaganda battle or to weaken the will of the opponent to divide their societies.

The technological and societal developments of the past decades have facilitated this enormously. Economic instruments such as sanctions and boycotts can also be threatened or used to augment military means. However, the basic definition of hybrid warfare is that it is the integrated use of military and non-military means or tactics within the framework of an overarching goal or plan.

The current situation on the Polish-Belarusian border does not meet this criterion. Even if this crisis was orchestrated by the Kremlin, it is far-fetched to speak of an integrated “deployment” of migrants in Belarus and of pro-Russian separatists and Russian troops in eastern Ukraine as part of an overall plan.

Calling the situation a hybrid war has concrete consequences because war justifies politically and legally different rules and means than peace. Using the term “war” increases the danger that it will be used to justify the mistreatment of refugees in violation of human rights. War creates a great urgency to act, while at the same time the political room for maneuver dwindles.

The question also arises as to who is waging war against whom. Is it Belarus against Poland, so that there is a NATO Article V case for collective defense? Or is it Russia against NATO? The expansion of the concept of war also dilutes the respective areas of responsibility of internal security forces and armed forces. Shouldn’t the Bundeswehr then also be deployed on the German-Polish border, and shouldn’t NATO send its rapid reaction force to the Polish-Belarusian border?

The fact that the boundaries between war and peace are becoming increasingly blurred is not only due to abstract security policy developments and structural international changes, but it is also very much the result of the language and actions of political actors, including in the West. Politicians, therefore, have a responsibility to continue to define the boundaries between war and peace.

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The migrant crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border is not yet a war. It cannot safely be ruled out that it will not escalate militarily. However, politicians in Germany and the EU should not rhetorically pave the way for such a development and should not respond to corresponding provocations from Minsk and Moscow.

They should meet the challenge posed by migration and refugees with political means — also and especially when a state uses them as a means of pressure. In addition to further economic sanctions by the EU against Belarus, the establishment of a functioning asylum policy in the European Union would be an essential step in this direction.

*[This  was originally published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), which advises the German government and Bundestag on all questions related to foreign and security policy.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post The Crisis on the Poland-Belarus Border Is Not a Hybrid Attack appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

The choice is straightforward. Boycotting the Games in Beijing offers a rare, peaceful and relatively painless opportunity to send an unmistakable signal of disapproval to the Chinese elite, the people and the world at large.

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In 1979, the city of Philadelphia entered a sister city relationship with Tianjin, China. Things have changed since those heady days for US-China relations, when every concession was offered to induce a weak, isolated and impoverished China to join the community of nations that abide by the rules of international law, trade and commerce. At the time, the hope was that China would introduce reforms and liberalize its economy and polity.

This turned out to be wishful thinking. Rulers of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have shown time and again that their main interest is strengthening their rule, revising the international order in their favor, suppression at home and aggression abroad.

Sounding the Alarm

Finally paying heed to the mounting evidence of an aggressive China bent on global dominance, the US administrations led by Donald Trump and Joe Biden labeled China the number-one national security . 

China’s actions and ambitions alarm and unite an otherwise deeply polarized US Congress. Growing numbers of China’s neighbors and other countries around the world are joining hands to reduce Beijing’s malign influence on international institutions before it is too late. As Senator Jim Risch, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,  in March, “The Chinese Communist Party presents an unprecedented threat to not only U.S. values and interests, but also to the free and open international system characterized by individual freedom and the rule of law — something the United States has carefully built over seven decades.”

So, it is interesting that on October 27, a hundred days before the start of the Winter Olympics in February, China’s consul general in New York, Huang Ping, took out a full-page ad in the Philadelphia Inquirer (“Together for a Shared Future”) and the deputy consul general, Qian Jin, wrote a letter to the editor (“Meet in Beijing for 2022 Winter Olympics”). It is a safe bet that other major American news outlets also received similar appeals to boost awareness and attendance at the upcoming Games.

From 1936 to 2022

China’s anxiety to host a successful Winter Olympics is understandable. Consider the 1936 Summer Olympics, which was awarded to Germany in 1931, two years before Adolf Hitler rose to power. Predictably, Nazi Germany used the Games for propaganda purposes, promoting an image of a new, strong, united Germany while masking the regime’s policies of racial supremacy, anti-Semitism and growing militarism.

Eager to impress, Hitler built a new 100,000-seater, track-and-field stadium and six gymnasiums. In the tense, politically charged atmosphere of 1936, the International Olympic Committee, fearing a mass boycott, pressed the German government and received assurances that qualified Jewish athletes could participate and that the Games would not be used to promote Nazi ideology. (These assurances, of course, were largely ignored.) The boycott movement narrowly failed, handing Hitler his propaganda coup and legitimizing his regime domestically and internationally, with 49 nations participating.

China would like to enjoy similar success, hoping that the world will focus on the shiny object (12 new competition venues) and ignore the brutality of the CCP’s single-party rule. But objections are being raised.

On July 27, the bipartisan Congressional-Executive Commission on China held a  on corporate sponsorship of the Games, questioning representatives from Airbnb, Coca-Cola, Intel, Visa and Procter & Gamble. Senator Jeff Merkley, the commission’s chair, said, “Holding the 2022 Winter Olympics in China and allowing its authoritarian government to reap the rewards in its prestige and propaganda of hosting this globally-beloved event does not uphold the Olympic spirit.” Merkley is right.  

China Will Not Cooperate

Still, some argue that engagement with China is the best path forward and that we need Beijing’s cooperation on issues of mutual interest, such as pandemic control and climate change. The folly of this view is exposed by China’s stonewalling of an independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19; Beijing refuses to provide samples, records, and personnel. Hopes of figuring out how to prevent future, potentially even more catastrophic pandemics remain just that: hopes.

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Likewise, do not expect help on climate change from China, the world’s biggest polluter. Voicing his opposition to the US strategy of competing with China in some areas but keeping an “oasis” for climate cooperation, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi , “surrounding the oasis is a desert, and the oasis could be desertified very soon.” In other words, even on a matter as fundamental as the planet’s future, China intends to push forward with its Sinocentric worldview, no matter the consequences for humanity’s welfare.

The fact is that the CCP has used China’s immense economic, technological, military and diplomatic power not in ways that help its 1.4 billion citizens achieve political freedom or to work constructively with other countries. Beijing intends to perpetuate the CCP’s single-party rule, violate international agreements (the takeover of Hong Kong) and laws (militarization of the South China Sea), commit atrocities in Xinjiang, bully Taiwan and export to other countries its toxic surveillance-state model of controlling its own citizens.

We must not repeat the tragic mistake of 1936. We must deny the CCP the undeserved honor of hosting the Games. We must demand a boycott of the Winter Olympics in Beijing.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Why Democratic Nations Must Boycott the Beijing Winter Olympics appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Popular opinions about history frequently involve mythologizing certain events and oversimplifying the choices that were available to decision-makers at the time. For example, Larkin robustly challenges the popular view, endorsed in a recent book by historian Diarmaid Ferriter, that the border on the island was “imposed” on Ireland against its will by the British in 1920.

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Larkin points out that John Redmond and Edward Carson had accepted some form of partition in principle in 1914 and again in negotiations after the Easter Rising in late 1916. So too did the majority of TDs (members of the Dail), who had been elected under a Sinn Fein banner, when they accepted the treaty of 1921 by a vote in the Dail. 

On each occasion, the Irish leaders in question shrank from the prospect of a prolonged and bitter sectarian war — and even more deaths — that would have been necessary to impose a united Ireland on a resisting unionist population. They were realists, facing their unpleasant responsibilities, and realists are rarely suitable subjects for romantic historical commemorations. 

We are reminded of this by recent events, and I am not sure much has changed. There is still a widespread view that unionists will cease to be unionist once there is a border poll on the island of Ireland. 

As Larkin sees it, the role of the historian is to debunk myths about the past. The historian’s task is to recognize that nothing that happened in the past was necessarily inevitable.  History is the result of an accumulation of a series of individual decisions, each one of which could have been different. Politicians and citizens are — and always were — the shapers of their own destiny within the constraints that existed at the time.

So, the study of history and the well-chosen commemoration of past events should enable us — by learning from the consequences of past decisions — to make better choices in the future. It should encourage the taking of responsibility, rather than undue submission to victimhood, nostalgia or the blaming of others.

Diving In

Larkin’s book covers many other topics. These include the contrast between the ideologies that inspired the 1798 and 1848 rebellions, the successes and failures of the Irish Parliamentary Party, and the varying attitudes of the Catholic hierarchy to political violence. It also explores the appropriation of the religious feast of Easter by the faction of the that launched the Rising, including through the use of religious imagery and notions of blood sacrifice in the proclamation of the Irish republic. 

Even to this day in secular Ireland, the 1916 Rising is remembered annually on Easter Sunday, whenever that falls under the Christian calendar, rather than on April 24, which is the actual anniversary. This purely secular commemoration should probably not be conflated with the resurrection of Christ. Each should be recalled by modern Ireland on their own merits.

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Larkin believes democracy should infuse commemoration, so the foundational event of this state should be recognized as the anniversary of the meeting of the duly elected First Dail in 1919. This was a democratically sanctioned event, whereas the Rising of 1916 was not.

Felix Larkin’s book deserves to be widely read. It gives a very personal perspective and offers insights that will help all residents of the island of Ireland — whatever their allegiance — to shape a peaceful future, free of grievance and myth.

Larkin is a former senior official in the Department of Finance and later in the National Treasury Management Agency. He has also been a historian writing about many topics, most notably the history of Irish newspapers, something he first took up as a graduate student as far back as 1971. His work on newspapers has given him a unique window into contemporary Irish public opinion over two centuries.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Myths About History Can Lead to Future Errors appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Not All Quiet on the Western Sahara Front

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The latest episode in this tense relationship between the North African nations took place in August when Algeria severed diplomatic with Morocco. The move came after a series of wildfires swept through the Amazigh-speaking Kabylie region in what Algeria claims was a covert Moroccan operation to bolster the MAK.

For Algeria, this was a delicate time for the government due to an economic crisis exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, political unrest since 2020, and the ill health and subsequent death of the country’s former leader, Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Tension in the Maghreb

Algeria and Morocco have been antagonistic neighbors since their respective independence from the French. Border discord gave rise to a tenacious rivalry that worsened with the Western Sahara when Algeria became the main supporter of the Polisario Front. This unfinished conflict and the decades-long of the land border between Algeria and Morocco are the most tangible examples of the enmity that keeps the Maghreb divided.

Diplomatic spats and mutual accusations of instigating internal turmoil have been frequent. One area where the tense calm in bilateral relations has been the military. The two countries have engaged in a rapid arms fueled, in Algeria‘s case, by generous hydrocarbon revenues in the first decade of the century. Despite its efforts, Morocco’s military budget has been outstripped since 2006. Only as a result of Algeria‘s economic fragility has Morocco been able to make a significant .

Recent years have been characterized by Morocco’s impetuous diplomatic activity, particularly in the Gulf and throughout Africa. In the face of Morocco’s increased international projection, the Algerians have tried to respond despite the country’s poor economic situation.

In particular, the Algerians have sought to build closer relations with African nations. Algeria has strengthened ties with its traditional ally Nigeria, restarting talks on the construction of the trans-Saharan gas . It has also reinforced cooperation with countries such as Mali and Libya.

Implications for Spain

Europe overlooks North Africa and is separated by mere miles from Morocco. As a result, the Europeans have a direct stake in the tension south of the Mediterranean. The European country most affected by the recent escalation between Morocco and Algeria is Spain.

Taking a position in favor of one party could have on either the security of Spain’s southern border that is close to northern Morocco or the supply of natural gas that it receives from Algeria. This comes at a time when the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean is increasing and the price of gas, coal and electricity is rising.

The of the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline on November 1 has direct implications for Spain since the route was a major source of supply for over two decades. The pipeline also passes through Morocco, which retained part of the gas in exchange for allowing the line to operate via its territory. Morocco used the gas to produce around 12% of the country’s electricity. The Medgaz pipeline is seen as a replacement, which would allow Algeria to get rid of intermediaries and also strike a blow against Morocco.

Yet this will not spare Spain, which has no voice in regional disputes despite its desire to present itself as a strong European country. It is unclear how long this new episode of tension in the Maghreb will play out, but it could have serious implications for Europe.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Algeria and Morocco: The Conflict on Europe’s Doorstep appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Of Human Bonds: Between Sex Work and Trafficking

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In Indonesia, there is no official data recorded about sex workers. As a result, these individuals do not have the same chance of receiving the same state benefits as other citizens. As by the United Nations Population Fund (UNPA), one example is Mirna, a 30-year-old sex worker. She struggles to pay her bills due to meeting fewer clients. She also does not have access to food aid from the local government as she does not hold an ID card for Jakarta, the Indonesian capital.

Sex Work and Violence

There is no explicit law in Indonesia that prohibits prostitution, making the trade of sex for money technically legal. Yet, as The Economist , “some local governments have used an ambiguous �Crimes Against Morals’ law to ban sex work in their districts.”

Many sex workers experience barriers when reporting violent crimes against them. These range from social shame to charges for engaging in prostitution. Those who work in the trade, particularly women, are often vulnerable to extreme violence. They face the risk of rape, assault, harassment or death, and the victims are usually blamed.

The National Women’s Commission has collected on violence against sex workers. As of 2018, “violence in the public domain reached 3,528 cases (26%), where sexual violence was ranked first with 2,670 cases (76%).” This was “followed respectively by 466 cases of physical violence (13 %), 198 cases of psychological violence (6%), and special categories, namely trafficking (191 case, 5%), and 3 cases related to migrant workers.” According to the National Commission on Violence Against Women, three Indonesian women are at risk of sexual violence every two hours.

Budi Wahyuni, the deputy chairperson of the National Women’s Commission, has called prostitution a harsh trade. She has argued that sex work is full of threats of sexual, physical and psychological violence. According to her, violence and go hand in hand with the world of prostitution.

In Indonesia, where the dominant religion is Islam, the issue of violence against sex workers has not received enough attention. Many Muslims in the country consider sex workers to be criminals who violate religious norms and, therefore, should not be accepted by society. This situation makes it for sex workers to receive sufficient state protection and resources, including access to health care.

Research by international agencies such as UNFPA that the trade of sex in Indonesia is unsafe. Many pimps cannot guarantee the availability of condoms to protect sex workers, which leaves people at risk of sexually transmitted infections (STI) or HIV/AIDS. Sex workers are also vulnerable to violence by law enforcement officers as well as psychological trauma.

The Indonesian Organisation for Social Change (OPSI), a nonprofit that provides training programs and reproductive education for sex workers, that in the last five years, many brothels were shut down by local authorities. The closure of these sites has made it difficult for facilitators to conduct health programs for sex workers, including protecting them from violence, trafficking or contracting STIs.

What Can Be Done?

It is clear that more needs to be done to help victims of sexual violence, especially those who work in the sex industry. Three areas deserve close attention.

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First, the anti-sexual violence bill must be . “The bill defines sexual violence as physical or non-physical violence that makes someone feel intimidated, insulted, demeaned or humiliated,” Inside Indonesia . “The bill acknowledges that sexual harassment, sexual exploitation, forced contraception, forced abortion, forced marriage, forced prostitution, rape, sexual slavery, and sexual abuse are all forms of sexual violence.” By including these terms in the bill and seeking to tackle abuse, the state can better protect sex workers. Most importantly, the “includes providing health services and legal assistance for victims.”

Second, the government must educate those who consider trading sex for money to be immoral. Many Indonesians ignore the fact that some people become sex workers out of necessity. For some, selling sex is the only way to put food on the table. As the majority in Indonesia, Muslims can play a key role in helping to change the social narrative around sex work.

Third, the government should from New Zealand. In 2003, New Zealand abolished criminal penalties for sex workers and sought to provide access to health services to reduce the risk of HIV/AIDS. Taking this step in Indonesia would help remove the social stigma around sex work and create a safer environment for those who engage in the trade.

In Indonesia, the issue of sex work is still a taboo subject. The “work” dimension of sex workers is considered nonexistent. Apart from the government, few civil society organizations have opened discussions about sex work. Instead of generating debate and addressing concerns, sex workers are shunned by society.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Should Indonesia’s Sex Workers Be Protected? appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Beirushima: What Lebanon Needs to Survive

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The interlocking political and banking elites who control the government based on sectarian power-sharing have so far ignored the pain of those affected and the need to have a national strategy of reconciliation and economic recovery. The economic erosion was furthered by the Beirut Port explosion of August 4, 2020. That incident destroyed much of the business area of the downtown. It also further set back the country economically and politically as the current government, headed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati, has been unable to remove impediments to an independent investigation.

The people of Lebanon are suffering. The statistics on , loss of and quality of life, of essential goods, cost of living and health care, and of skilled Lebanese are well known. The security and stability of the country are eroding as the families of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and Internal Security Forces (ISF) share the depressing costs of a barely functioning economy.

The Governing Troika

The latest threats and demonstrate the fragility of the civil order as the Shia Amal-Hezbollah alliance, along with their Christian enablers in President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement — now headed by his son-in-law and presidential aspirant, Gebran Bassil — feel free to ignore demands for change. The march on October 14, 2021, demanding the removal of Judge Tarek Bitar, who was calling current and former officials to testify about their roles in the Beirut Port blast, was the latest opportunity to demonstrate their dominance. This was too much of a provocation for those opposed to the governing troika, which led to bloodshed and a spike in instability. Despite the current calm, that chapter has not been concluded.

More damaging is the challenge that inaction poses on two fronts: to the new government and to the security services. Prime Minister Mikati supports an independent judiciary and an independent investigation into the blast. This could lead to the dissolution of his government, which depends on an agreement with the troika to survive. Hezbollah and company have not shown any concern for the integrity of the state up until now, so there are no assurances that they will tolerate an investigation that might expose some of their own friends.

The LAF and ISF are already struggling to hold together their forces, who have experienced a 90% in their salaries while facing hyperinflation in food, medicines and fuel. Desertion rates are as soldiers look for other employment opportunities. With budgets decreased by 90% due to the currency devaluation, the LAF and ISF have to increasingly rely on external assistance from the United States and others to retain their operational readiness.

Time for Action

All the while, the people are on the sidelines, not able to promote changes that will improve their lives and save their country. At the core is the concern that Lebanon for the Lebanese may become an aspiration more than a reality. To avoid the demise of what was once the educational and intellectual center of the region, it is time for remedial action.

It is time to begin the process of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and move toward a single exchange rate by reducing subsidies and public spending. Work must be done to ensure increased stable power supplies throughout Lebanon. The people’s trust needs to be earned through transparent and credible policies to restore a functioning government.

The international community is clear in its position: Clean elections, implementation of basic reforms, and a robust and sustainable social safety net are central to opening the country to outside support. Only then can Lebanon begin the process of reconstruction and recovery. Now, as the people remember the October 17 demonstrations, it is time to recommit to a process of reform and reconciliation that will provide a basis for Lebanon’s reconstruction.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Lebanon’s Future as an Inclusive Democracy in Doubt appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

During the past two years alone, six women have had their lives taken by either their male kin or other men. The women have been reduced to mere statistics thrown around to point out the rise of killings, without investigating the cause of their murder or providing insight into these high-profile cases.

Around the World, Femicide Is on the Rise

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The Family Protection Law, which was passed by Kuwait’s national assembly in August 2020, for the establishment of a national family protection committee. This committee would put measures in place to tackle the spread of domestic violence. The law stipulates that those taking part in the family protection sector should undergo the necessary training. It also calls for the activation of a domestic violence shelter, which would offer rehabilitation and advisory services to survivors of domestic violence.

At the time, these measures were  as a victory, one that abolished Article 153, which treated honor killings as a misdemeanor with a maximum three-year prison sentence and/or a small fine for the perpetrator. Experts argued that Article 153 all but  honor killings. Yet despite being passed more than a year ago, the Family Protection Law remains nothing but merely ink on paper. The failure to protect women from being victims of domestic violence continues unabated.

Violence Against Women

The absence of such protection is what  Farah Hamza Akbar’s life. In April, Farah was gruesomely killed by a man she had previously filed two cases against for kidnapping and attempted murder. The perpetrator, Fahad Subhi Mohammed, who had been stalking the victim but was not known to her or her family, crashed into Farah’s car, kidnapped her and her two daughters. He stabbed Farah in the chest before dumping her body in front of a hospital, leaving her there to die.

Dana Akbar, Farah’s sister and lawyer, shared a  on social media saying she had warned the prosecutor several times that her sister’s life was in danger. According to Akbar, her sister’s perpetrator attempted to kidnap and harm Farah on multiple occasions. He was detained twice but released on bail each time. Mohammed was out on bail when he killed Farah.

The heinous crime sent shockwaves across Kuwait, resulting in a large  during the height of summer in the holy month of Ramadan. Protesters called for reforming existing laws, putting in place better protection mechanisms for victims of violence and actually enforcing the Family Protection Law.

The debate following Farah’s death served to amplify the anti-sexual harassment movement that was brought into prominence early in the year by Ascia al-Shammari. The influential fashion blogger posted a powerful venting her fury about the horror of being car chased by men, a common form of harassment in Kuwait. She called for a mechanism to report sexual harassment, saying “it is a necessary step in this country … So I don’t understand when you say you are against it.” The video went viral on social media platforms, provoking many women to comment and leading to “culturally sensitive” conversations about sexual harassment and gender-based violence.

Following Shammari’s video, a social media awareness campaign dubbed  (I will not be silent) was launched by medical doctor Shayma Shamo. It served as a virtual safe space that gave women the opportunity to share anonymous testimonies of harassment or abuse, encouraging more women to speak up.

Empty Promises

But the outrage that took place and the different hashtags only resulted in empty promises made by several members of parliament. Former MP Yousef al-Fadhala, who resigned from parliament in April, a government-sponsored mobile app designed to document and register instances of harassment. MP Abdulaziz al-Saqabi for an amendment to the penal code, adding punishments that include up to a year in prison and a fine of 3,000 Kuwaiti dinars ($9,940). Lastly, MP Abdullah al-Mudhaf adding punitive measures to the penal code, with a three-month window for the executive branch to activate these laws.

Almost eight months later, none of the proposals has been acted upon. However, in late September, the minister of commerce and industry and the chairman of the Public Authority for Manpower, Abdullah al-Salman, directives to end discrimination in the private sector and criminalize harassment in the workplace. While this step is long overdue, it is a promising one toward establishing a safer work environment for women. Yet there remains much to do.

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A recent  from the male-only Women, Children and Family Affairs parliamentary committee suggests that femicide is not a legislative issue but a societal one. The committee added that preventing violence against women is the responsibility of the government. This muddled and inadequate response, especially when Kuwait is witnessing a disturbing increase in femicide, is not nearly enough.

Despite having a vocal parliament and a free press, in comparison to its Gulf neighbors, Kuwait lags behind when it comes to enacting legislation to protect the lives of its women. More than one year and six lives later, we still see the offhand attitude in parliament and society toward violence against women, a convenient way of condoning this tragedy without condemning and holding accountable those responsible.

*[This article was originally published by , a partner organization of 51łÔąĎ.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post The Wave of Femicides in Kuwait appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Democrats face challenges of their own trying to figure out how to weave together moderate Biden Democrats with a new generation of democratic socialists. One way to become “the party of the future” is to articulate a clear plan for solving the problems of the future. Here is one clear opportunity.

The Weak European Reflex in German Cybersecurity

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Both the Trump and the Biden administrations approved multibillion-dollar pandemic stimulus programs. Despite the gravity of the COVID-19 economic crisis, half of the did not get to the working Americans who desperately needed help. Much was stolen by fraudsters and criminal rings who exploited online claims. Made worse, 70% of the stolen funds went abroad to Russia, China and Nigeria.

California State Auditor Elaine Howle as much last August and announced in a January report that the Employment Development Department (EDD) had sent 555,000 claims to 26,000 suspect addresses — an of 21 per address — despite the evidence of fraudulent activity. One address had more than 80 claims, and yet EDD’s missed 12 as late as in December 2020. Howle also noted that a disturbing number of claims went to people currently incarcerated in California prisons.

This begs the question: How long will taxpayers support government programs only to learn that the money ended up in the hands of criminals? This is how we stop it.

Every FBI or Drug Enforcement Administration office has a special agent in charge (SAC) to coordinate efforts in combatting criminal threats. We need state-based SACs for cybersecurity to assist state and local governments, prevent fraud and direct funding for state task forces as we already do for counterterrorism.

Under the authority of the secretary of homeland security, chief security officers in each state would provide a full conduit of information to all levels of government to intercept criminals. Besides preventing fraud, they could play a valuable role in helping local governments encrypt both and as well as portect against .

Governments in general also need more cyber experts. Cyber gangs have upped the ante, going so far as to examine companies’ before activating ransomware as experts believe was done in the most recent Kaseya hack. We need to raise the bar to intercept these bad actors before they reach private citizens or entities. A Marshall Plan for cyber hiring across all government would put us on stronger footing to combat increasingly aggressive behavior by state-supported crime syndicates.

Lastly, we need to measure how we are doing. We need to require that states publicly account for the share of unemployment benefits that get into the right hands. Obviously, not every malicious individual can be caught. By spotlighting our efficacy, we can highlight the problem, heighten demand and recruit more people with the tech backgrounds we need to tackle fraud.

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As a lifelong Democrat, I believe in the power of a strong government that provides a social safety net to protect its citizens. The answer is not less government or pretending there will not be more tech-based attacks on our citizens and businesses. The answer is for government to demonstrate it can proactively provide solutions to stop the problem and provide accountability.

We need a government that is technologically capable enough to protect our people and smart enough to get the money to those who need it most. Whichever party shows it understands the future by solving new problems like cybersecurity will be in the pole position to win in 2022 and beyond.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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The shaky pillar is the Gulf monarchies’ reliance on a powerful external ally that, in the of Middle East scholar Roby C. Barrett, “shares the strategic, if not dynastic, interests of the Arab States.” In the first half of the 20^th century, the allies were Britain and France. Since then, the US has taken on the role. Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan, the revered founder of the United Arab Emirates, implicitly recognized Gulf states’ need for external support. In a to a book in 2001, he noted that the six monarchies that form the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) “only support the GCC when it suited them.”

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Going forward, question marks about the reliability of the United States may be unsettling. Yet the emerging outline of what a future US approach could look like is not all bad news for the region’s autocratic regimes. There have been to dial down regional tensions and strengthen regional alliances. The factors driving this are the uncertainty over the US role in the region, the unwillingness of GCC states to integrate their defense strategies, a realization that neither China nor Russia would step into Washington’s shoes, and a need to attract foreign investment to diversify the Gulf’s energy-dependent economies.

Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and his Emirati counterpart, Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, are headed to Washington this week for a tripartite meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The three officials intend “to discuss accomplishments” since last year’s establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE “and other important issues,” Blinken . The Israeli Foreign Ministry those other issues include “further opportunities to promote peace in the Middle East” as well as regional stability and security, in a guarded reference to Iran.

Good News for the Gulf

From the Gulf’s perspective, the good news is also that the Biden administration’s focus on China may mean that it is reconfiguring its military presence in the Middle East. The US has  some assets from the Gulf to Jordan and withdrawn from Saudi Arabia, but it is not about to pull out lock, stock and barrel. Beyond having an interest in ensuring the free flow of trade and energy, Washington’s strategic interest in a counterterrorism presence in the Gulf has increased following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August. The US now relies on an â€śover the horizon” , for which the Middle East remains crucial.

Moreover, domestic US politics mitigate toward a continued, if perhaps reduced, military presence, even if Americans are tired of foreign adventures. This is despite the emergence of a Biden doctrine that deemphasizes military engagement. The focus of US foreign policy is also now on Asia rather than the Middle East.

Various powerful lobbies and interest groups — including Israelis, Gulf states, evangelists, and the oil and defense industries — retain a stake in a continued US presence in the region. Their voices are likely to resonate louder in the run-up to crucial midterm elections in 2022. A recent Pew Research concluded that the number of white evangelicals had increased from 25% of the US population in 2016 to 29% in 2020.

Similarly, the fading hope for a revival of the Iran nuclear deal, from which former US President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018, and the risk of a major military conflagration makes a full-fledged US military withdrawal unlikely. It also increases the incentive to continue major arms sales to Gulf Arab countries.

That’s further good news for Gulf regimes against the backdrop of an emerging US arms sales policy that the Biden administration would like to project as emphasizing respect for human rights and rule of law. However, that de facto approach is unlikely to affect big-ticket prestige items like the F-35 fighter jets promised to the UAE.

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Instead, the policy will probably  to smaller weapons, such as assault rifles and surveillance equipment that police or paramilitary forces could use against protesters. Those are not the technological edge items where the US has a definitive competitive advantage. The big-ticket items with proper maintenance and training would allow Gulf states to support US regional operations. Examples include the UAE and Qatar‘s role in Libya in 2011 and also the UAE in Somalia and Afghanistan as part of peacekeeping missions.

Nothing to Worry About

In other words, the Gulf states can relax. The Biden administration is not embracing what some arms trade analysts define as the meaning of ending endless wars such as Afghanistan. “[E]nding endless war means more than troop withdrawal. It also means ending the militarized approach to foreign policy â€” including the transfer of deadly weapons around the world — that has undermined human rights and that few Americans believe makes the country any safer,” a group of experts in April.

There is little indication that the views expressed by these analysts, which stroke with thinking in the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, are taking root in the policymaking corridors of Washington. As long as that doesn’t happen, Gulf states have less to worry about.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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Algeria to France: No Thanks for the Memories 

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Yet within the current situation, an important question arises: How much change can happen with newly elected parliament members when interrelated issues such as governmental corruption, Iranian influence in Iraqi affairs and the presence of armed militias seem less likely to change?

Religion and Politics

To understand what is taking place in Iraq, it is necessary to look back at recent developments. After the dramatic upheaval with the war in 2003, Iraqis witnessed the rise of religious authorities engaging in political activities, which is when the so-called  agenda began to develop. In political theories, scholar Leo Strauss introduced the “theologico-political problem” as an issue of authority — that is, political authority founded on religious revelations. This theory can explain age-old problems and help analyze the dynamics and parameters of political  in the context of Iraq.

One significant issue that exists in Iraqi politics is the dominance of the Shia religious agenda in shaping the country’s affairs. Figures such as Muqtada al-Sadr, Ammar al-Hakim, Qais Alkhazaali and others are in charge. In fact, it is difficult to imagine or predict a change where Sunni or other secular political leaders arise, even within a climate of supervised fair elections.

This “theocratic” model has caused multiple predicaments that have worsened and complicated the existing conditions. It has simply proved dangerous. Such theologico-politicians who claim religious authority can be morally corrupt and disguised in a righteous mask. Yet such figures need to show they follow custom-interpreted religious doctrine. Their goal is to gain popular votes by convincing like-minded Iraqis of the importance of religion.

The consequences have intensified over the years. Theologico-political figures have established their own political parties and armed militias. The presence of militias in Iraq has become one of the most difficult issues to solve, particularly as militants operate autonomously with impunity. They have infiltrated government institutions where they have influence. They also maintain power and funding. Both of these issues make it difficult to dissolve such organized groups.

There has recently been an increase in assassinations, threats and targeting of “new” potential candidates, activists and proponents of change. In 2019, it was that a 700-name list was issued by the Iran-backed Shia militia Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) to target Iraqi journalists and activists, including those living overseas, who support the ongoing protests.

Iraqis Are Tired

The core problem of this theologico-politics is that its rhetoric is always divisive. In a religiously diverse country like Iraq, people of different faiths and sects should coexist and be considered in the decision-making process. This one-sect politics can never function when its agenda inherently dismisses, discriminates against and persecutes the “other” group.

But Iraqis are tired of this. The majority of Shia-led  oppose the government’s agenda and Iran’s interference in Iraq. The people do not want sectarian ruling anymore. The status quo favors Iran over Iraq’s interests to ensure long-term existence. Protesters have demanded basic infrastructure services and reform of issues exacerbated by Iranian meddling and accompanying governmental failures in all spheres. This includes a failing economy, widespread corruption, deteriorating health care and education systems and, most significantly, rising civil unrest.

In contrast to this new form of dictatorship — theologico-politics — what Iraq needs are conditions that support true liberal democracy, secularity and the separation of religion and state. However, this may seem implausible, especially when speculation over the election results seems more inclined toward the domination of Islamist politics.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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Addressing Climate Change Impacts on the Sporting Calendar

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In 2011, the Turkish authorities, in the National Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan, that Turkey’s location in the Mediterranean basin made it more susceptible to arid conditions and heatwaves resulting from climate change, citing the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In its sixth report, in August this year, the IPPC concludes that climate change is already creating many extreme weather and climate events in all regions of the world and that they are intensifying in an unprecedented way.

Despite these bitter observations, Ankara has long refrained from ratifying the 2015 Paris Agreement. The legally binding international treaty was signed with the central objective of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and continuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But recently, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared the country’s intention to ratify the Paris accord before the UN Conference of the Parties (COP26) on climate change, which is to open in Glasgow on October 31.

The mindset of the Turkish government can help to explain its inadequate efforts to address the climate crisis. But to understand this resistance on the part of Ankara, one should look at Turkey’s problematic position in the global climate change regime.

Lack of Domestic Commitment

Climate change has never been a priority for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Its growth-oriented economic and energy policies of the past 20 years have followed a development model that prioritizes economic gains while ignoring their environmental consequences. Already realized projects such as Istanbul Airport or planned initiatives such as the Istanbul Canal are only a few examples of this vision.

Another is the priority given to the use of coal. It is still the third-largest source of primary energy in Turkey after oil and natural gas, and coal-related emissions have increased by almost 32% over the decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions increased by 137% 1990 and 2018, and the government does not currently have a target year for peaking emissions or for reducing emissions in absolute terms.

Moreover, Turkey contends, like many other less-developed countries, that it only has a negligible responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions — and hence should do less than fully industrialized countries, which have a huge historical responsibility for anthropogenic climate change.

Turkey’s Special Circumstances

In 1992, when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted, as a of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development — and without any objection from Turkish officials at that time — Turkey was listed in both Annex I and Annex II of the UNFCCC. These countries, which are generally richer and more developed, are expected to take the lead in combating climate change. But most importantly, Annex II countries should also provide financial support to developing countries that are in the non-Annex I group and have fewer obligations.

Turkey was, therefore, theoretically obliged to reduce its emissions and help developing countries such as Brazil, South Korea and China. As a result of Turkey’s diplomatic efforts, the country was finally removed from Annex II in 2001, but it is still listed in Annex I, which means that Turkey is not obliged to contribute to climate finance, but it cannot benefit from financial support either.

As a consequence, during the Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris in 2015, Turkey said it would not sign the agreement if its demand was not taken into account. At the time, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande had to  to convince Erdogan to sign the agreement. But before ratifying the Paris Agreement, Ankara wanted to be removed from the list of developed countries of the UNFCCC and receive financial assistance for climate change mitigation. Obviously, Turkey’s behavior carries a cost in the form of ecological costs to the country and the surrounding region as well as negative impacts on the Turkish economy and global efforts against climate change.

Getting Turkey on Board

The effects of climate change will require significant changes in geo-economic at the European and global levels. The European Union is already progressively integrating climate factors into its external economic relations, which will change the way it trades with its partner.

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The EU’s planned carbon border tax, called the Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism, would be a significant tool in this strategy and affect Turkey’s trade relations with the EU if Ankara fails to decarbonize its economy. Turkey conducts half of its trade with the EU. Decarbonization would, therefore, also be an economic and strategic requirement for Turkey in terms of its trade and other relations with the EU.

The ratification of the Paris Agreement will be the first positive step toward joining the international coalition to fight climate change, and it should also be seen as part of Turkey’s charm offensive toward the West. This effort will not be complete if Ankara does not make concrete mitigation commitments by submitting a new and more ambitious version of its nationally determined contributions.

It seems that Ankara can be motivated to take such moves and be actively involved in the fight against climate change through financial assistance. The EU can play an important role here. It should effectively use its financial and diplomatic powers to secure these outcomes.

After all, bringing Turkey on board in the global fight against climate change is also in the interest of the EU, which has the leadership role in achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement. This would not only contribute toward global mitigation efforts, but also increase Turkey’s resilience and preparedness for the ecological crises that will only worsen with climate change.

*[This was originally published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), which advises the German government and Bundestag on all questions related to foreign and security policy.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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Liberalizing India’s Economy Is Critical for Global Stability

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Cash, an integral part of daily life for millions of people, is being sidelined to make way for digital payment systems, under the guise of anti-corruption efforts, increased convenience and security for consumers. The act of going cashless has crept into our everyday lives, and it seems somewhat inevitable that advanced economies will fully digitalize in the not-so-distant future. In the UK, for example, over a third of consumers have  being refused when trying to pay with cash “at least once since the first lockdown in March 2020.”

These efforts to move away from using cash have inevitably led to the gradual removal of free-to-use ATM machines. In 2018, the British consumer website Which? that cash machines in the UK had been shut down, often with machines that charge users a fee per withdrawal.

This has subsequently had an adverse effect on low-income earners. In some of the most deprived areas of the UK, as many as people do not have access to a bank account. For them, cash continues to be an essential part of their daily lives, particularly those who get paid in hard cash. The same applies to many small businesses that rely on cash to operate as they do not have to pay card fees or wait for funds to be transferred to their bank accounts.

Protecting Cash Means Protecting the Vulnerable

On average, around 340 ATM machines are from UK high streets per month. The decline in the use of cash during the pandemic has resulted in a swift fall in available cash machines. This has subsequently led to a debate about the financial exclusion of the most vulnerable people in society. This those who are “poor or in debt, disabled people, rural families and anyone who may be at risk of having their finances controlled by an abuser.”

Since cash is fundamental to the lives of millions, the continued disappearance of ATMs is inexorably putting the economic security of these sections of society in jeopardy. The UK government has consequently come under increasing  to introduce legislation to “protect access to cash for vulnerable ±č±đ´Ç±č±ô±đ.”

In 2018, a by Access to Cash found that 25 million people in the UK, nearly half of the population, “use cash as a necessity.” Many, it would seem, could be ready to fight back and protect cash from the advancement of cashless systems in order to insulate certain sections of society. For those most affected, ATMs represent access, inclusion, identity and autonomy.

Why ATMs Still Matter

What FinTech advocates of digitalization often fail to take into account when pushing for cashless societies is the social value of hard cash. The most deprived sections of society rely on cash to live. Nearly of those who depend on cash in the UK are over 65, an age group whose cultural association with cash is deeply rooted.

It would seem that these groups are being somewhat ignored. “Everyone should have reasonable access to their own money without having to pay,” Gareth Shaw, the head of money at Which? “Yet our research shows free cash machines are vanishing at an alarming rate — often in areas where people need them most.” The unintended consequences of going cashless have often involved panic around accessibility and public debate about social exclusion, as in the cases of and . It also raises questions about the impact on small businesses. The removal of ATMs will continue to exacerbate these anxieties.

Martin Lewis, a financial journalist and founder of MoneySavingExpert,  the societal disparities in accessing hard cash. He told The Times, “Many, especially the more affluent and technologically savvy, now live mostly cashless lives. That’s exactly why protecting access to cash is so important. We must learn lessons from the past and plan now to protect those who need it in future.”

Moreover, simple infrastructural issues, such as lack of adequate access to broadband in remote areas, compound the need for accessing cash. Coupled with a traditional emotional attachment to cash, this has led some town halls in France to pay â‚¬1,500 ($1,740) per month to retain ATMs, even though few people use them.

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These municipalities appear to have understood the importance of providing access to cash for the public good, particularly in the context of the pandemic. Caroline Abrahams, the charity director of Age UK, governments “must legislate to protect cash access within a reasonable travel distance of people’s homes. This will not only help the millions of citizens of all ages who risk being excluded from society if cash is allowed to die, but can also help revitalise our high streets as local businesses strive to recover.”

It remains of paramount importance for general social cohesion that banking regulators do not cut off the most vulnerable people from society. The ATM remains an economic bulwark for financial inclusion. Their continued removal can only aggravate the already negative consequences of going cashless on the most vulnerable in society. Our economic systems must be accessible to all. As things stand, digital systems remain out of reach for millions.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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The article was written in anticipation of COP25, which was due to take place in Madrid later that month. In it, I likened the global dealings with climate change to being on a travelator walking backward while it gets faster.

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The next climate conference, which was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, is COP26 and takes place in Glasgow in November.

Greta Thunberg Mocks World Leaders

In the meantime, Greta Thunberg, a prominent young climate activist, has been expressing similar sentiments. On September 28, at the Youth4Climate conference in Milan, the 18-year-old gave a speech in which she, in her inimitable manner, world leaders for their “blah, blah, blah” of empty words and little action.

Whatever your views about her message and whether, as some have suggested, she should be at school instead of giving speeches, Thunberg has become the global voice of youth.  Her voice is uncompromising — at times angry — and reverberating around the world. It’s no wonder, because one of the ironies of the climate debate is that the very group of people who will be most affected by climate change have the least sway and power to avert or abate it. 

Nevertheless, the voice of young people around the world pleading for more urgent and positive action against climate change is getting louder, and perhaps, just perhaps, leaders are slowly finding ways to address the issue. But it hasn’t been easy and will continue to create internal political difficulties for many leaders for years to come. 

As explained in my book “,” climate change is a wicked problem. Wicked problems are those that are multifaceted, changing and difficult to address because they are a complex mix of economic, financial, political, cultural and technical issues. For climate change, inter-generational factors and short-termism create additional challenges. Quite simply, to fully address the impact of climate change, we need to change the way we access, generate and utilize energy, the driver of all our activities on the planet.

Did I say simply? The entire world has to do this in concert — and equitably and urgently. Global agreement on any major issue has never been easy, quick or complete. Climate change is one of those. The Conference of the Parties involves almost 200 nations, all with their disparate issues, from the very poor to the highly-developed industrial giants.

But climate change gives current world leaders little choice but to find a way out of the quagmire. As I wrote in another opinion piece titled, “There’s a Rock Heading for Earth,” if there was a rock, half the size of our moon heading at great speed in our direction, how would we respond? Would leaders continue to meet once a year and discuss with platitudes and endless targets to deal with the threat?

COP26 in Glasgow

So, what should we expect from COP26? More of the same “blah, blah, blah,” as Thunberg says? Will we see leaders from developed countries justifying their positions by proudly espousing their achievements to date and promising to do more? Will leaders of developing nations cry for more action and support while they adapt to increasingly severe weather patterns?

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To help predict the outcome of COP26, let me summarize the meetings so far. The first meeting of the UNFCCC was held in 1995 and was known as COP1. Twenty-six years and 25 meetings later, greenhouse gases continue to rise and climate change remains a considerable and increasing risk to humanity. Is it any wonder that the voice of youth is one of disillusionment and frustration?

Don’t get me wrong, there has been considerable progress made all around the world on the installation of large, renewable energy generation systems. This has meant some improvement in balancing the economic development of countries that are still catching up with the highly industrialized nations. But, in reality, such progress hasn’t been adequate — nowhere near it.

Is the global community trying hard enough? Are leaders willing and able to courageously get over the politics and avert short-termism just this once? Rhetorical questions, I know.

So, back to my earlier analogy, while the travelator continues to take the world backward in terms of emissions reductions, global action appears to be limited to meetings, targets and pledges with little progress. Let’s hope COP26 leads to at least slowing the travelator down — and significantly. Otherwise, it’s all “blah, blah, blah.”

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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The United States and its G7 allies have on Saied to appoint a prime minister and restore parliamentary functions. Washington should seriously consider withholding military aid to urge the Saied administration to remain within existing constitutional limits and prevent any potential military crackdown against protesters.

Tunisia and the Gulf

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The Biden administration should similarly consider revoking Tunisia’s designation as a , which provides it military aid that Saied could use to suppress the opposition. US failure to meet this challenge would represent a severe blow to President Joe Biden’s abroad and would further diminish his administration’s credibility following the fall of Kabul to the Taliban last month.

For international observers of the Arab Spring, Tunisia was initially seen as a “” as the only country that had transitioned from authoritarianism to democracy during that period. However, 10 years after the overthrow of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, economic turmoil and political gridlock have worsened the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and have deeply polarized the Tunisian political landscape.

The current president, Kais Saied, was elected in 2019 as an independent candidate in a . The retired law professor’s appeal was his outsider status and his strident anti-corruption platform. However, he repeatedly clashed with the deeply divided Tunisian parliament, which has no . The Islamist Ennahda party, which is viewed by large swathes of the Tunisian public as and ineffective and has even been accused of two leftwing politicians, currently holds the most seats.

Following months of political stalemate and a worsening COVID-19 spike, Saied invoked emergency powers to dismiss his former prime minister, Hichem Mechichi, freeze parliamentary functions and use the police to target and . Saied has some for his actions given the widespread unpopularity of the parliament.

Consequently, the United States and the rest of the G7 must follow through on its urging a return to constitutional processes. It is essential that they challenge Saied’s increasing anti-parliamentarian actions, especially his reliance on the military to cement his rule, to prevent continued democratic backsliding in Tunisia.

Freedom House has repeatedly warned about an alarming systemic shift toward across the world, something which the Biden administration was aiming to address with its commitment to democracy promotion. However, events like the “” will begin to ring hollow if the United States and its allies do not take a stronger stand against democratic backsliding, such as in the case of Tunisia.

The primary option that is available to the Biden administration and US allies is reducing military aid to Tunisia until Saied enters a dialogue with the parliament. Although President Saied and his supporters have been to such suggestions and a mediation offer by a US Congress delegation has already been , the United States and its allies should increase their efforts to support dialogue.

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Crucially, the influential Tunisian General Labor Union now openly Saied’s unilateral plan to create a new constitution, demonstrating that dialogue is necessary to resolve this crisis.

Revoking Tunisia’s major non-NATO ally designation will send a strong message and remove Tunisia’s privileged access to US military aid. The measure would reduce the possibility of Saied continuing to use the threat of military force against protesters, an 2,000 of whom have come out on Sunday in the capital to denounce the president’s power grab.

On September 29, Saied finally a new prime minister, Najla Bouden Romdhane — the first woman to hold that office — and asked her to form a new government, whose main task would be to “put an end to the corruption and chaos that have spread throughout many state institutions.” Despite these positive steps, the United States and its democratic allies should remain vigilant and ensure the crisis in Tunisia is dissolved in a peaceful and democratic manner.

*[51łÔąĎ is a  partner of .]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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However, a non-trivial proportion of Afghan women might not be bothered enough by the Taliban’s rule in order to protest. Some might even support the group’s fundamentalist policies. Days after the Taliban took over the Afghan capital on August 15, of women took to the streets to welcome the group’s return to power. Millions of Afghan women took no public stance over the fundamentalist movement.

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Given the Taliban’s long history of misogyny and extremism, it might be puzzling that some women might express their public support or indifference to the loss of their rights.   

Why Some Women Support Extremist Groups

Whether globally or in the Muslim world, it is not an anomaly that some women might support misogynistic leaders or political organizations. In the Middle East, women played a role in different political Islam movements with varying degrees of conservatism. At its peak, recruiters for the Islamic State (IS) group managed to attract female supporters and convince them to migrate to their territories in Syria and Iraq at a time when harrowing stories were emerging about the organization’s treatment of women. So, even if such extremist movements are enemies of women, not all women view them in these black and white terms.

In a research published in the World Politics journal, Lisa Blaydes and Drew Linzer investigate why women might support Muslim fundamentalists. Their answer focuses on the availability of economic opportunities for women. When women lack enough opportunities to achieve their economic and social independence, they might choose to increase their attractiveness in the marriage market of a patriarchal society by becoming more conservative. Thus, limited economic possibilities can push women to trade some of their rights in exchange for financial security.

Afghan women have made significant gains over the last two decades. For example, according to the International Labor Organization’s estimates, female participation in the labor force grew from 15.5% to 22.74% of the female working-age population between 2001 and 2019. This means that more women are looking for inclusion in the labor market.

Yet when it comes to unemployment rates among Afghan women, there is barely any change over the same period. The unemployment rate among women in the labor force moved from 14.75% in 2001 to 13.81% in 2019. Hence, the opportunities available to the increasing numbers of women who choose to work have not significantly increased.

Other Reasons

This economic explanation is only one side of the story. Indoctrination through various processes of socialization can also contribute to women’s conservative attitudes. Households, schools, religious institutions and online spaces are all realms where such attitudes are cultivated and reinforced.

Fundamentalist groups understand the importance of women’s indoctrination. Contemporary extremists such as IS and the Taliban rely on female recruiters to attract female members and build ideological support for their movements among women. In the early days of political Islam movements, Egypt’s Muslim Sisterhood was the female side of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Sisterhood was concerned with educating women about their roles in an ideal Islamic society.

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But a more cynical explanation is that the lives of the vast majority of Afghan women are less affected by the rule of the Taliban. As anthropologists Charles Hirschkind and Saba Mahmood out, the decry against the Taliban’s rule is merely an urban phenomenon. Most Afghan women — —live in rural communities, where conservative social norms are enforced independently of who is in charge of the capital city. For example, in 2017, the of rural women aged 20 to 24 who got married before 15 and 18 were 5% and 31.9%, respectively. This is compared to 2.1% and 18.4% among their urban counterparts.

Being away from the capital in a country plagued with underdevelopment, rural women also suffered disproportionally due to their higher economic vulnerability and exposure to the two-decade violent conflict between the Taliban and the government. Putting an end to the civil conflict may provide hope to some that their situation might improve.  

We do not know precisely how prominent female support is for the Taliban. Yet the picture is more complicated than a simple fight between women-hating extremists and freedom-loving feminists. With successive Afghan governments failing to address the root causes of gender inequalities, seeing women protesting in the streets with Taliban flags becomes a less surprising anecdote.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Why Do Some Women Support the Taliban? appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Youth activism and empowerment have a rich history in Yemen. Youth activism became a bustling part of civil society during the Arab Spring of 2011. At that time, demonstrations at change squares and protest camps gave young Yemenis a place to meet and discuss their hopes and demands for human rights. A number of youth-led organizations were founded, carrying out advocacy, media reporting and monitoring. 

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As the regime led by Ali Abdullah Saleh came to an end in 2012, the transitional government that took over Yemen made incredible steps to engage youth populations in the national dialogue. A technocratic  was formed in 2014 that “drew heavily from youth leaders,” many of whom were given a generous amount of access to decision-makers. The institutional progress made during this time has since been abandoned. However, the spirit of Yemeni youth activists lives on in the actions of youth leaders today. 

Yemen’s war has spared no one, not even its children. The in the country worsens as fighting continues between the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed Yemeni government and Houthi rebels. The war has resulted in the complete breakdown of government services and the destruction of critical infrastructures, such as hospitals, schools and roads. 

What Are Youth Doing?

Although the war is not over, Yemeni youth activists are building support for their number one : peace. They are combining humanitarian initiatives with development components to create a sustainable approach to peacebuilding. This advocating for small businesses like food carts and home-delivery kitchens, using skills in social media to raise awareness for public health and safety issues, and designing graphics to show how to avoid contaminated water or where landmines may be located. 

Youth activists are creating a culture of trust and community, especially among vulnerable populations where networks of support might have otherwise collapsed during the conflict. In the event that funding no longer sustains humanitarian aid, these programs and businesses will continue to support Yemenis. Through the creation of opportunity and family support, Yemeni youth are keeping alive the fabric of society necessary to achieve long-term stability. 

The youth empowerment initiatives that Yemeni activists organize similarly seek peace. The most immediate goal of these initiatives is to offer an alternative to fighting in the conflict. These initiatives champion the of youth empowerment: for young people to develop skills, awareness and opportunities that will positively impact their lives toward a future they have chosen. 

Yemeni youth activists are combating unemployment and providing livelihood , protecting young people from conflict and further polarization and also maintaining security. These activists have shown great adaptability and  in presenting an alternative future to young people where they are able to have agency over their lives. 

Involving Young Yemenis

Those in positions of power should not wait until the conflict is over to integrate young Yemeni leaders into the peacebuilding process. Integral work is being done by young activists every day. Not involving this group in the political process further marginalizes and silences the voices of community members suffering from the conflict. Yemeni youth are the future of the country and should have consistent access to decision-making. 

Engaging youth in peacebuilding  â€śserves to address their feelings of fear, isolation, hopelessness, stigmatization, and in turn, contributes to the overall security of the community.” Young leaders will not only be able to feel a sense of agency over their own lives but over the peace process as well. They become active players in their nation’s history rather than passive victims of war. When they become the leaders of Yemen, they will have developed the necessary skills to care for the people of Yemen. 

The war has blocked all forms of for Yemeni youth, a critical space to share their ideas. It is essential that leaders and international actors do not silence them altogether. 

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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Is Big Tech Ready to Tackle Extremism?

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Germany’s positioning in European and international cybersecurity policy is listed as the last of four prioritized fields of action. These fields are largely of a domestic nature. This also applies to the German discourse on the topic of IT security: representatives of digital civil society, the Association of the Internet Industry (eco) and some computer science professors criticize the planned development of an active cyberdefense, including the possibility of digital counterattacks — so-called hackbacks.** However, they primarily discuss domestic federal competence or fundamental rights issues such as the separation requirement.

European Imperatives

There are four reasons why the EU would have to be much more involved in order for the strategy to work.

First, the number of serious cybersecurity incidents affecting EU services of general interest continues to rise. Diplomatic action, travel restrictions and asset freezes — for example, Russian intelligence officers blamed for cyberattacks — have proved cumbersome, incoherent and ineffective in the past. A purely national perspective means that EU member states do not react uniformly to cyber incidents.

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Secondly, the EU is not only the framework for German policy, but it is also inextricably intertwined with it through the direct effect of European law. The 2014 ruling on data retention by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) not only formulated requirements for data protection, but also for data security. In the same way, the EU Cybersecurity Act of 2019 is a regulation and thus obliges all member states to implement it.

However, the importance of EU law and the case law of the ECJ is underestimated in the German cybersecurity strategy. Yet these are central reference points for German legislation. On the other hand, Germany cannot impose cyber sanctions against third countries or their so-called proxies without the European Union.

Thirdly, the German government cannot reduce the EU to a coordinating role, if only because internal market protection is inconceivable without the European Commission acting as a safeguard of EU treaty obligations. The security and stability of the EU is not the task of the member states alone. For example, the European Commission will set up a joint cyber unit by 2023 to take joint action against attackers. Part of the necessary investment will be provided through the Digital Europe program. The development of cyberdefense capabilities will be financed by the European Defence Fund. In her state of the European Union address on September 15, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also a cyber resilience act to define common standards.

Fourth, transnational cybercrime cannot be solved effectively on a purely national level. Europol and the European Cybercrime Centre (EC3) are regarded by other states as role models in the international fight against cybercrime precisely because of their transnational investigative successes. The call for a European investigative agency modeled on the Federal Bureau of Investigation is therefore becoming louder in cybersecurity policy.

Overall, it is clear that cybersecurity in the EU is no longer a national matter, but must be understood as a component of its shared sovereignty.

Germany in a Global Context

However, the necessary integration in the German cybersecurity strategy is not limited to the EU. It must also be coupled with strong transatlantic cooperation between the European Union and the US within the newly established Trade and Technology Council. Far too often, transatlantic cooperation is thought of in terms of national bilateralism between Germany and the United States.

The first argument in favor of this is that alliance solidarity obliges the German government to maintain an active cyberdefense even in peacetime. However, a demanding technical, legal and political attribution can neither be coordinated without the European External Action Service nor realized without US cooperation.

For this, Germany must in turn act in close coordination with its EU partners such as France, the Netherlands, Denmark or Sweden. Germany’s transnational critical infrastructure in itself effectively precludes it from going it alone in cyberdefense, not least because the expertise for sophisticated technical solutions is not sufficiently available in Germany.

A convincing security strategy, therefore, requires close cooperation with international experts as well as the knowledge imparted at the EU level via Europol in coordination with cybersecurity research centers and the European Union Agency for Cyber Security (ENISA). Sustainable influence on global standards and norm-setting in the multi-stakeholder forums of Internet governance can also only be successful in the long term if democratic states coordinate among themselves in data protection and data security policies.

In the face of increasingly complex global politics, the new German government should promptly Europeanize the cybersecurity strategy so that it sees itself as part of the EU cyber strategy 2020 and, in a global context, serves to cooperate with its democratic allies.

*[This  was originally published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), which advises the German government and Bundestag on all questions related to foreign and security policy. **Dr. Matthias Schulze was part of this initiative.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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I hesitate to note the vulnerabilities here to avoid facilitating adversarial advances, but I hope that this will lead to further action by the US government to evacuate SIV/P1/P2/P3 applicants in order to avoid this. Failure to do so will lead to torture, interrogation and manipulation of our former allies in an attempt to extract full biographical data and identities of their former co-workers, including sensitive site exploitation as well as digital and document extraction.

This alone will provide a fiesta of data that is the gift that keeps on giving. Each lead will lend itself to another lead, and another, and another.

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Once all elements of the network are completed, the adversarial extraction of information will multiply. The ability to process and analyze this data to make it applicable is unlimited. In short order, the United States’ greatest adversaries will be able to compile details on all US personnel that has ever been stationed in Afghanistan.

This includes all passport and visa information of all US staff — soldiers, diplomats, spooks, etc., who are now at the mercy of the Taliban and whomever they opt to share the data with or sell it to. The Taliban now own all Afghan border information. They have my iris scans, fingerprints and passport data.

They also have all biographical data and personal information of every US staff member connected with Afghan local staff. Facebook and LinkedIn profiles, phone numbers, emails, professional histories, full names, etc. Keep in mind that we are friends with these people and have signed off with personal signatures and contact information on all their paperwork.

The TTPs (tactics, techniques and protocols) for US military bases and the US Embassy access are now also exposed. The people we left behind know the word-by-word polygraph procedures for gaining entry to our military, diplomatic and intelligence facilities. They know our security protocols, applications details and database methods.

This information is not only now available to the Taliban but is up for sale to the highest bidders such as China, Russia, North Korea and Iran — not to mention affiliate terrorist groups such as the Haqqani Network, al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS).

Information does not stagnate in these circles. It sells, spreads and grows. In short order, it will be in the hands of China. Beijing already has full data on all US individuals with since the early 2000s that it can now cross-reference. Couple this with hacked data available on the open market for a fraction of the cost, including Experian, Marriott and airline data leaks.

There is nothing to stop a letter showing up at my mother’s door threatening her if I do not cease and desist my work. There is nothing to stop me from being pulled into a secondary screening in any number of countries that will soon have access to this data.

There is nothing to stop my closest Afghan allies from being interrogated until they give up my biographical data, personal email, physical description and professional title. This will limit my ability to travel anywhere outside Western Europe, for example.

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Additionally, every single military, diplomatic and intelligence post around the world is now compromised, with the key details now available on how to gain employment while surpassing vetting and investigative procedures.

None of this speaks to the fact that the Taliban reportedly have access to our biometric databases that identify our Afghan partners. To be clear, many of our Afghan partners were embedded within the core of our diplomatic, intelligence and military units. Leaving these people behind is akin to leaving Americans with security clearances being at the mercy of Taliban interrogators.

Afghanistan is not some far-off place with no relevance. Afghanistan is here, in America — at home. It is closer to you than your television. Abandoning our Afghan allies is a grave national security violation that will haunt us for decades to come.

*[This article originally appeared on the author’s page.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Leaving Afghan Allies Behind Is a Threat to US Security appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

After Afghanistan, How Probable Is Peace?

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According to the newspaper, the interpreter, along with his wife and four children, are among the countless other Afghans who were left in the following the Taliban’s rapid reconquest of Afghanistan in August. By all accounts, the translator provided meritorious service to US troops during the Afghanistan War, but his visa application got snarled in bureaucracy and his family was turned back by US soldiers at the Kabul airport gates as they attempted to board an evacuation flight.

The interpreter has now appealed to Biden, the US president, for assistance and the White House promises to get him out. But given present circumstances, he faces at best an uncertain . His plight the numerous missteps and miscalculations the Biden administration made before and during the chaotic US withdrawal from Kabul.

President Biden has highlighted the 2008 incident as part of his foreign policy resume. But both he and The Journal’s account omit important context that casts doubt on Biden’s credentials.

What Happened?

As recounted in Steve Coll’s recent , “Directorate S: The CIA and America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan,” Biden and his colleagues were on a helicopter tour of eastern Afghanistan, escorted by Major General David Rodriguez.

As they were returning to Bagram air base outside of Kabul, Rodriguez pointed to the distant peaks of Tora Bora, where al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden eluded during the opening stages of the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. Coll writes that Hagel, a twice-wounded Vietnam veteran, warned against taking a further look.

“Christ, we’ve got blizzards coming up. We’re running low on fuel,” he argued. But Biden, the senior senator in the group, ignored the advice and decided they should divert for a closer inspection.

The snowstorm soon engulfed their helicopters, forcing the group to make an emergency landing in a rugged territory where Taliban forces were active. According to Coll, the group, which was not dressed for the cold, “ended up stranded for hours, watching unknown armed men watching them from a nearby ridge.” F-16 aircraft flew overhead to provide air cover while a rescue team (including the interpreter) was scrambled from Bagram, finally reaching the group in the predawn darkness.

Although Biden points to the incident with pride, the full record shows he made a near-disastrous decision, one that brought about the perilous circumstances from which he and his colleagues needed saving.

Later that same day, the group had dinner with Hamid Karzai, then-president of Afghanistan, who spent the session complaining of America’s lack of commitment to his government. Perhaps due to the dangers he had just experienced, Biden lost control of his temper. 

“Biden slammed his hand down on the table so hard that every plate jumped and rattled,” Coll notes. “Then he jolted back in his chair and declared, �This conversation, this dinner is over.’ He stormed out of the dining room.”

It was left to Kerry to smooth things over with Karzai, but in that moment, Biden set the pattern for what would become the Obama administration’s dysfunctional with the Afghan leader, one in which the future vice president would a central role.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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The German government has repeatedly drawn attention to °äłóľ±˛Ô˛ąâ€™s disregard for international law, especially in the context of its refusal to abide by a ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which declared its territorial claims in the South China Sea illegal under international law in 2016. Yet the German warship’s chosen route takes it to a US base whose status under international law is — to say the least — contested, thus torpedoing the implicit criticism of China.

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Diego Garcia is the largest island in the Chagos Archipelago, which formerly belonged to the British Indian Ocean colony of Mauritius. In 1965, the British illegally retained the Chagos Islands in order to construct a military base there. The United Kingdom declared the archipelago a restricted military area and deported its entire population to Mauritius and the Seychelles. Since then, the base on Diego Garcia has largely been used by the United States. The Brits have leased the island to the Americans until 2036.

Violation of the Right to Self-Determination

Mauritius has been seeking to reclaim its sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago since the 1980s. In 2019, an advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) found that the UK’s claim to the archipelago contradicted the right to self-determination and on UN member states to “co-operate with the United Nations to complete the decolonization of Mauritius.” A resolution by a large majority of the UN General Assembly called for the United Kingdom to “withdraw its colonial administration.” Most European states abstained, including Germany.

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While the advisory opinion and resolution are not legally binding, they certainly possess normative power. In 2021, a ruling by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) in Hamburg concurred with the ICJ’s interpretation. A separate issue of fundamental human rights is also involved: The US base housed a detention facility where terror suspects are known to have been tortured. Unlike Guantanamo Bay, the Diego Garcia facility remained completely secret until it was revealed by investigative journalists in 2003.

A so-called bunker call at Diego Garcia is the obvious option for keeping the German warship’s replenishment as simple as possible on the long leg from Karachi in Pakistan to Perth in Australia. Calling at a NATO ally’s port is easy to arrange, with simplified procedures for procuring food and fuel. Resupplying in Sri Lanka or Indonesia, for example, would be much more complex.

Alternative Route Possible

The obvious operational benefits are outweighed by the cost to the mission’s normative objectives: Calling at Diego Garcia will inevitably invite accusations of double standards. The UK’s open defiance of the ICJ opinion and UN resolution means that visits to the Chagos Islands implicitly accept — if not openly support — a status quo that is at the very least problematic under international law.

The bunker call would run counter to both the ICJ opinion and the ITLOS ruling, as well as boosting Beijing’s narrative that the West is selective in its application of the rules of an already Western-dominated international order. At a juncture where international norms and rules are increasingly contested in the context of Sino-American rivalry, none of this is in Germany’s strategic interest.

There are alternatives to replenishing at Diego Garcia. Changing the route would involve costs, but it would also underline Germany’s interest in upholding the rules-based international order. One possible outcome of a reevaluation of the current route planning would be to omit the call at Diego Garcia but, at the same time, to take the vessel closer than currently planned to the contested Chinese-built artificial islands in the South China Sea.

In connection with a detour avoiding Diego Garcia, that would represent a gesture boosting international law, rather than a demonstration of military might toward China. Germany could show that it is willing to comply with international law, even where doing so contradicts its own immediate operational interests and its partners’ expectations.

*[This was originally published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), which advises the German government and Bundestag on all questions related to foreign and security policy.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Stopping at Diego Garcia Raises Questions for Germany appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

It shows that efforts from the outside to topple regimes and replace them with friendlier ones are more difficult than anyone thought 20 years ago, when NATO forces first overthrew the Taliban regime in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The aim of capturing Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda, which was being harbored by the Taliban, was not achieved until much later in 2011. Even his attempted arrest and subsequent death took place in Pakistan — an ostensible ally of the United States — not Afghanistan. 

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The end of the US-led intervention in Afghanistan has lessons for those who might wish to undertake similar exercises in Somalia, Libya, Syria, Cuba, Mali or Venezuela. The objectives need to be clear and limited. Local support must be genuine. If one is seeking out terrorist organizations or individuals, an invasion is not the best way of achieving extradition. Nation-building is best done by locals.

Existing regimes may be oppressive or corrupt, but if they are homegrown and have been developed organically from local roots, they survive better than anything — however enlightened — introduced from outside. Foreign boots on the ground and targeted bombings have limited effectiveness against networks of fanatics or mobile guerrillas. Western countries will now need to reassess their military spending priorities in light of the lessons from military interventions in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan.

With Afghanistan, it is the US and NATO that have the hardest lessons to learn. But if China were to attempt a similar exercise in nation-building from the outside — say, in Taiwan — it would have the same experience. The fact that Beijing has had to adopt such extreme measures in Xinjiang to integrate that province into the Chinese social system is a sign of weakness rather than strength. 

Afghanistan is an ethnically diverse country that, despite its diversity and disunity, has been able to resist rule from Britain, the Soviet Union and now the US and NATO. Religion was a unifying factor in an otherwise divided country. It seems the Taliban have been more effective in building an ethnically diverse coalition than the previous Afghan government. But it is not yet clear whether the Taliban will be able to hold that coalition together.

It does seem that the Taliban have, in the past, been able to impose a degree of order in Afghan society and been able to punish corruption. Between 1996 and 2001, the Taliban created a form of order in a brutal and misogynistic way. Order is something the outgoing government in Kabul could not provide, even with generous outside help. After all, order is a prerequisite for any form of stable existence. Without order, there can be no rule of law and no democracy. Coupled with that, civil society breaks down. This applies in the West as much as it does in Central Asia and South Asia.

Order is created by a combination of three essentials: loyalty, acquiescence and fear. All three elements are needed to some extent. Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president between 2001 and 2014, could not command these three elements. It remains to be seen whether the Taliban will do any better.

Will There Be a Change in US Strategy? 

It is hard to assess the effect the Afghan debacle will have on the United States, which has by far the most elaborate and expensive military forces in the world. There is a strong temptation to turn inward and reduce commitments to the defense of other countries, including European ones. From 1783 until 1941, the US tended to remain neutral and rely on the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for protection against its enemies.  

The countries of the European Union will also need to work out what their practical defense priorities are in light of the events in Afghanistan and other recent experiences. This is a political task of great difficulty because the 27 member states have very different views and geographic imperatives.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post What the World Can Learn From the Events in Afghanistan appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Although public-private partnerships were only in France in 2004 — mainly as a response to the advantage gained by countries such as the United Kingdom, whose private finance initiative model had been in the early 1990s — the country has led the way in PPP innovation, particularly in the framework of concession agreements for the realization of long-term infrastructure projects.

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A concession agreement is as one under which “a grantor assigns, for a limited period of time, to one or several economic entities, the performance of works or the management of a service.” In France, such agreements are common and can be found in sectors like catering, water and sanitation, district heating, transport and sports facilities. They represent a form of economic and social innovation within a state that has been committed to institutional modernization for over a decade.

A French Style

For over half a century, France has developed one of the most modern, innovative motorway networks in Europe, thanks to a great extent to the concession structure put in place with a number of so-called concessionaire companies. These companies were by the French government’s public service delegation with the task of “financing, building, running, and maintaining their networks.” A “user=payer” toll system was then put in place to offset taxpayer funding and allow the concessionaire companies to collect annual revenues.

This model has several advantages for both the French state and the concessionaires. The governments delegate the construction and management of the network to private companies while retaining ownership and transferring financial risk. Private companies can create significant revenues through the user=payer toll system, and users are able to enjoy a highly efficient, modern and reliable service.

Sustainability is also on the list of advantages. The setup allows for a sustainable avenue of resource allocation, which over €18 billion ($21 billion) in investment between 2005 and 2015. A high rate of investment and the competition encouraged between concessionaire companies has produced a high-quality network with high-quality services that will remain without debt when the contracts come to an end as the risks are shouldered by the private sector.

The system has also had a profound impact on mobility, coupled with high investment in services. This has been made possible by concession agreements that have profits from “mature” concessions to subsidize less profitable sections of the network. These profits are raised through the toll system, run directly by the concessionaires. It is a highly innovative, collaborative system that meets the economic and social needs of both states and private companies in an of unstable financial market.

In 2011, France the European PPP market, accounting for 62% of the overall market value. According to the World Bank, this was in the “wave of new ‘social infrastructure’ investments in health, education, defense, transport and urban planning sectors.” In the water sector, France is a in private sector participation, with three French companies, Veolia, Suez and SAUR, dominating on the world stage. As Xun Wu and Leong Ching , the French model of concession agreements in the water sector has increasingly been adopted in developing countries, “particularly in large cities because of the large investments required to meet increasing demands due to urbanization, along with shortages in fiscal budgets.”

A Modern Solution

In 2013, the French government launched the Plan France Très Haut Débit, aimed at rolling out high speed broadband across all rural areas by 2022. The initiative received over €20 billion in funding from the French government and the European Union, with several PPP projects under concession contracts being in 2014 between local authorities and the private sector.

The concession system allows for a more viable initiative in rural areas, where investment cost is often very high and profitability difficult to achieve. The of the initiative is for France to guarantee 100% coverage by the end of the project, which will secure almost 1 million connections for both households and companies across more than 3,000 municipalities. Such targets could not be met without public-private cooperation.

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As public budget limitations have become more palpable as a result of often unstable financial markets, governments have found that PPP schemes have been a viable solution to the problem of financing modern infrastructure projects. Concession agreements can be hugely advantageous to both governments and private actors committed to finding innovative solutions to public infrastructure problems.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post France Leads the Way in Public-Private Partnerships appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

The fall of the US-backed Afghan government led by President Ashraf Ghani will shelve if not kill Indian support for the Iranian port of Chabahar, which was intended to facilitate Indian trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia. Chabahar was also viewed by India as a counterweight to the Chinese-supported Pakistani port of Gwadar, a crown jewel of Beijing’s transportation, telecommunications and energy-driven Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

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The United States facilitated Indian investment in Chabahar by  the port from harsh sanctions against Iran. The exemption was intended to “support the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan.” However, due to stalled negotiations with Iran about a revival of the 2015 nuclear agreement, the US in July — together with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan — plans to create a platform that would foster regional trade, business ties and connectivity.

The connectivity end of the plan resembled an effort to cut off one’s nose to spite one’s face. It would have circumvented Iran and weakened Chabahar but potentially strengthened °äłóľ±˛Ô˛ąâ€™s Gwadar alongside the port of Karachi. That has become a moot point with the plans certain to be shelved as the Taliban take over Afghanistan and form a government that would be denied recognition by at least the democratic parts of the international community.

China

Like other Afghan neighbors, neither Pakistan, Uzbekistan nor China are likely to join a boycott of the Taliban. On the contrary, China last month made a point of giving a visiting Taliban delegation a welcome. Yet recognition by Iran, Central Asian states and China of a Taliban government is unlikely to be enough to salvage the Chabahar project. “Changed circumstances and alternative connectivity routes are being conjured up by other countries to make Chabahar irrelevant,” an Iranian source told , a Delhi-based publication.

The Taliban have sought to reassure China, Iran, Uzbekistan and other Afghan neighbors that they will not allow Afghanistan to become an operational base for jihadist groups. This includes al-Qaeda and Uighur of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP). The Taliban have positioned themselves as solely concerned with creating an Islamic emirate in Afghanistan and having no inclination to operate beyond the country’s borders. But they have been consistent in their to expel al-Qaeda, even if the group is a shadow of what it was when it launched the 9/11 attacks in 2001.

The TIP has occasionally issued  documenting its presence in Afghanistan. But it has, by and large, kept a low profile and refrained from attacking Chinese targets in Afghanistan or across the border in Xinjiang, the northwestern Chinese province in which authorities have brutally cracked down on ethnic Turkic Uighurs. As a result, the Taliban reassurance was insufficient to stop China from  advising its citizens to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible. “Currently, the security situation in Afghanistan has further deteriorated … If Chinese citizens insist on staying in Afghanistan, they will face extremely high-security risks, and all the consequences will be borne by themselves,” the Chinese foreign ministry said.

Pakistan

The fallout of the Taliban’s sweep across Afghanistan is likely to affect China beyond Afghan borders, perhaps no more so than in Pakistan, a major focus of Beijing’s single largest BRI-related investment. This has made China a target for attacks by militants, primarily Baloch nationalists. In July, nine Chinese nationals were killed in an explosion on a bus transporting Chinese workers to the construction site of a dam in the northern mountains of Pakistan, a region prone to attacks by religious militants. This incident raises the specter of jihadists also targeting China. It was the highest loss of life of Chinese citizens in recent years in Pakistan.

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The attack occurred amid fears that the Taliban will bolster ultra-conservative religious sentiment in Pakistan that celebrates the group as heroes, whose success enhances the chances for austere religious rule. “Our jihadis will be emboldened. They will say that â€�if America can be beaten, what is the Pakistan army to stand in our way?’” a senior Pakistani official. Indicating its concern, China has  the signing of a framework agreement on industrial cooperation, which would have accelerated the implementation of projects that are part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Kamran Bokhari, for The Wall Street Journal, explained: “Regime change is a terribly messy process. Weak regimes can be toppled; replacing them is the hard part. It is only a matter of time before the Afghan state collapses, unleashing chaos that will spill beyond its borders. All of Afghanistan’s neighbors will be affected to varying degrees, but Pakistan and China have the most to lose.”

The demise of Chabahar and/or the targeting by the Taliban of Hazara Shia Muslims in Afghanistan could potentially turn Iran into a significant loser too.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post What Starts in Afghanistan Does Not Stay in Afghanistan appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

So where does that leave public confidence in our health agencies? Not in a good place. According to a recent conducted by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, 48% of those polled reported little to no trust in the CDC and even less for state and local health departments. 

These low numbers have dire consequences. Public health recommendations that include mask-wearing, proof of vaccination status and compliance are necessary for the United States to effectively combat the COVID-19 Delta variant and minimize morbidity and mortality. If the general public is skeptical and doesn’t have faith in these recommendations, containing the spread of new variants becomes nearly impossible.

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It is not hard to understand the reasons behind eroding trust in the United States. From the start, the COVID-19 pandemic has been highly politicized. “There are deep divisions in this country affecting how people look at public health institutions tied to political views and philosophy,” explains , professor emeritus of health policy and political analysis at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and co-director of the recent poll.

The CDC was once viewed as a neutral agency. Back in 2009, during the H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic, all of the messaging came directly out of the CDC headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia. The messaging was not politically charged. “The minute you start doing discussions out of the White House,” says Blendon, the message gets lost. “It’s no longer the CDC’s goals — it becomes the president’s goals.” In order to lower the political climate in this country, the White House should not be placed at the center of discussions.

In addition to the political climate, there has been mixed messaging from the scientific community. â€śData has changed, data moves,” explains Dr. Arthur Caplan, professor and founding head of the Division of Medical Ethics at the NYU School of Medicine. “The public doesn’t fully understand or accept that.” There was a great deal of uncertainty with COVID-19, especially at the beginning of the pandemic. There was a wide expectation among many people that the scientific community would have immediate and definitive answers. It didn’t, and that bred feelings of anxiety, fear and distrust.

Convincing people to get the vaccine is critical at this point in the pandemic. But the tactics need to evolve. “We discovered in the data polling from the variety of unvaccinated people that they are not worried about the disease,” says Blendon. “If you look at other diseases from the past, parents first got worried about polio when they saw pictures of children disabled for their whole lives.” Pictures, personal stories that relay the importance of vaccination and what is at stake will work better than statistics.

“There was a critical care physician from Alabama who had two patients near dying, they wanted the vaccine but it was too late,” explains Blendon. According to both Blendon and the results from the poll that he oversaw, this is very powerful and this is what it will take to move the needle: “We need to convince people through iron lung pictures, not statistics.”

In addition, Blendon thinks that the public seems to trust their own health care provider: “We need to emphasize local physicians — those voices in Tennessee, Mississippi, Missouri, Alabama will move people over time.” The pandemic is being fought on the ground and has nothing to do with politicians and the presidential administration. 

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Looking back on the past year, it’s become clear that the US could have handled the flow of information better. Had there been more transparency at the beginning of the pandemic, with public health officials explaining that they are learning about the disease in real time and that the recommendations may change, the public may have had more tolerance for an evolving situation. 

We were isolated from each other, connected largely online, with social media serving as the ultimate connector. Everyone became an expert, and every account became a megaphone. Ethical issues emerged from diminishing trust in science. “A˛ő science erodes, it opens the door wide for cooks, nuts and bigots,” says Caplan. “If science doesn’t have control over the message, anybody and everybody can pile in,” he points out. There is a large platform of misinformation and, in some egregious cases, so-called experts profiting over the fallacies they espouse. 

American public health agencies have a tough job ahead of them of fixing the distrust among the people who used to rely heavily upon them for guidance and information. But they also need to streamline their messaging and strategize effective recommendations to become a central voice in the fight against this virus so that we can soon look at this pandemic in the rearview mirror. 

 
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Do Americans Still Trust Their Public Health Agencies?  appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

The Musical Is Political: Black Metal and the Extreme Right

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The story centers on Siegfried, a hero in the mold of Beowulf: a strong, nearly invincible warrior who has won riches through his exploits, a powerful sword and a cloak of invisibility. Siegfried is very much the belle of the medieval bro-ball. The poem begins with Siegfried traveling to the German town of Worms to propose marriage to Kriemhild, the Burgundian princess. Her brother, King Gunther, consents to the match, but only if Siegfried helps him win the hand of Brunhild, the warrior queen of Isenland. It’s to be a double wedding.

Following the nuptials (and a disturbing episode involving the marital rape of Brunhild), a feud emerges between Kriemhild and Brunhild. The conflict culminates in one of Gunther’s kinsmen murdering Siegfried, thrusting a spear into the vulnerable spot in his back. The remainder of the poem (the whole second half, that is) revolves around Kriemhild’s revenge, which results in the violent death of pretty much all the main characters, including Kriemhild herself. Taken together, the Nibelungenlied is an illuminating portrayal of ancient Germanic heroism and courtly drama.

Rediscovered in the mid-18^th century, the popularity of the poem swelled with the rising tide of German nationalism in the 19^th century. Most famously, the composer Richard Wagner, a German nationalist and virulent anti-Semite, reimagined the story in an epic four-part opera consisting of “The Rhinegold,” “The Valkyrie,” “Siegfried” and “Twilight of the Gods,” collectively known as “” or the Ring cycle, for short. Of course, several of the operas’ leitmotifs are instantly recognizable, not least the “.” Wagner’s Ring cycle became a landmark of German art and is still performed today, occasionally in back-to-back-to-back-to-back .

The Nazi regime was preternaturally keen to memorialize German lore, especially the Nibelungenlied, given its association with Wagner. An enthused Hitler was an in Bayreuth, home to Wagner’s own theater. Several symbols from both the original and Wagner’s version appealed to the Nazis, perhaps most notably the murder of Siegfried. It reflected the “” (¶Ů´Ç±ôł¦łó˛őłŮ´ÇĂź) conspiracy theory that the Nazis propagated, namely that the German army was betrayed during the First World War by treasonous Jews and leftists.

The regime supported several projects stamped with the label of the Nibelungs. Chief among them was the cavernous Nibelungenhalle in Passau, the putative home of the original composer of the Nibelungenlied, which was used for mass indoor rallies. In the postwar era, far-right parties like the German People’s Union and the National Democratic Party of Germany organized assemblies with the specific intention of using the nationalist cachet of the Nibelungs — until Passau’s authorities the building in 2004.

Still, appropriation of the Nibelungs legend endures among Germany’s far right. Beginning in 2013, right-wing extremists organized the “” (KdN, the “Battle of the Nibelungs”), a mixed martial arts competition catering to far-right fighters and fans from around Europe. The event attracted 850 spectators in 2018 and was one of the biggest MMA competitions in Europe. It was in 2019, and organizers were from live-streaming KdN fights in 2020, but it may yet resurface in 2021.

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Symbols and allusions to the Nibelungenlied sadly will persist amid Germany’s far-right scene. This symbolism has a long history of co-option by extremists. Even though the of Wagner’s operas are not anti-Semitic, their endorsement by the Nazi regime touched Nibelung lore with an association that inescapably appeals to the far right. Yet references to the Nibelungenlied are more than far-right supporters’ fetishization of a twisted version of German cultural history. They form a part of the vast book of codes used by far-right actors to communicate. Cracking these is often the key to decoding how the far right organizes, mobilizes and ultimately understands the world in which it operates.

*[51łÔąĎ is a  partner of the .]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post From Opera to MMA: Nationalist Symbolism and the German Far Right appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Austerity for the Poor and Prosperity for the Rich

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In one example, Saudi GDP per capita dropped by almost half from a peak of $17,872 in 1981 to $8,685 in 2001, the year in which 15 Saudi middle-class nationals constituted the majority of jihadists who flew airplanes into New York’s World Trade Center towers and the Pentagon in Washington. It was also the year in which many Saudis struggled to make ends meet amid depressed oil prices and then-King Abdullah’s efforts to introduce a measure of Saudi fiscal restraint. Many people held two to three jobs.

“Prior to the Gulf War, we didn’t pay rent in student dormitories — now we do,” a Saudi student enrolled in Saudi Arabia’s prestigious King Fahd Petroleum and Minerals University told this writer at the time. “In the past, it didn’t matter if you didn’t complete your studies in five years. Now you lose your scholarship if you don’t. Soon we’ll be asked to pay for tuition. Before the Gulf War, you had 10 job offers when you graduated. Now you’re lucky if you get one,” the student said referring to the US-led reversal of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

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“There’s nothing to do here but sit around, watch television and smoke shisha,” added Abdulaziz, one of the student’s friends. “There’s nothing we can do to change things. That’s why we get married early, only to discover that it was a mistake.”

Saudi GDP per capita has dropped again, although less dramatically, from $23,337 in the year that the World Bank warned about looming poverty to $20,110 in 2020. On a positive note, the bank reports that while “poverty information and access to survey data to measure welfare conditions have been limited,” Saudi Arabia has “gains in administrative capacity to identify and support low-income households.” It warned, however, that the middle class could be most exposed to the pains of austerity and fiscal restraint.

A Different Saudi Arabia

To be sure, the Saudi Arabia at the turn of the century is not the same kingdom as today. Saudis up one of the largest contingents of foreign fighters in the Islamic State group that seized territory in Syria and Iraq in 2014. Despite this, Saudi citizens are unlikely to respond to a unilateral rewriting of a social contract that promised cradle-to-grave-welfare and potential economic hardship by drifting toward militancy and extremism at a time that a young crown prince has promised massive change and delivered some.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has liberalized social mores, rolled back the influence of ultra-conservative clerics, created greater leisure and entertainment offerings, and enhanced women’s rights and professional opportunities. This forms part of his plan to wean Saudi Arabia off its dependency on oil exports and diversify the economy. He has simultaneously tightened the political aspect of the kingdom’s social contract involving the public’s absolute of all political rights, including freedom of expression, media and assembly.

In exchange, Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 reform plan promises, according to the World Bank, to protect citizens from the pain of economic change by “modernizing the social welfare system, redirecting price subsidies toward those in need, preparing and training those unable to find employment, and providing tailored care and support to the most vulnerable citizen.” In doing so, the government has sought to soften the impact of higher energy prices and the tripling of value-added tax and expatriate levy.

More than social protections, Vision 2030 is about creating jobs for Saudis in a country where  was 11.7% in the first quarter of this year. In the last three years, the Saudi private sector reportedly created a  of the 1.2 million  the kingdom needs to generate by 2022 to meet its unemployment target. The country’s statistics agency said the first-quarter unemployment was Saudi Arabia’s lowest in nearly five years. But the decline was partly driven by people dropping out of the labor force rather than new job creation.

Jobs for Saudis

In May, Mohammed bin Salman asserted in a wide-ranging  that “we have 200,000 to 250,000 people getting into the job market each year and public sector jobs are limited.” Taking tourism as an example, he said the development of the industry would create 3 million jobs, 1 million of which would be for Saudis who, over time, could replace expats who would initially fill two-thirds of the openings.

“Once we create three million jobs, we can Saudize them in the future. There are also jobs in the industrial sector and so on,” Prince Mohammed said. He predicted at the same time that the percentage of foreigners in the kingdom could increase from a third of the population today to half in the next decade or two.

Writing about the changing social contract in Saudi Arabia, Mira al-Hussein and Eman Alhussein cautioned that the government needs to manage rapid economic and social , in part by providing clearer information to the public. The scholars identified issues involving rights of foreigners versus rights accorded children of mixed Saudi and non-Saudi marriages, the rollback of religion in public life and austerity measures as potential points of friction in the kingdom. “The ramifications of existing grievances and the increasing polarization within Gulf societies … as well as the extensive social engineering programs have pitted conservatives against liberals. Arab Gulf States’ ability to redefine their social contracts without turbulence will depend on their tactful avoidance of creating new grievances and on solving existing ones,” the authors wrote.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Can Saudi Arabia Balance Social and Economic Change? appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

2021 Is the Year to Make Peace With Our Planet

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The so-called dilemma unfortunately applies to this situation: When humans over-exploit a public area due to greed, the sector eventually deteriorates past the point of productivity and we lose our once-cherished commodities. Overfishing poses a real-life threat, not just to our stomachs, but to our ocean’s ecosystem and productivity as a whole. In 2020 alone, one-third of all were overfished. How did we get to these dire numbers? With oceans comprising 71% of the world’s surface, isn’t there plenty of fish in the seas? 

Domino Effect

There used to be. Today, the average person eats , which is double the weight per person consumed 50 years ago. That’s a lot of spicy tuna rolls. Overfishing, a slowly devastating response to an astronomical increase in demand from consumers, is essentially exterminating the wild fisheries. Ninety percent of such as tuna, sharks and marlin are already extinct. Our lack of readily available sushi aside, this has scary implications for the state of our oceans. Ecologically, eliminating the predators at the top of the food chain will catalyze an impact felt down to the microbial level, culminating in a such as turtles and corals, driving further domino effects that lead to extinction. 

Economically, fish is one of the on the planet, with a $362-billion global industry. Ceasing to consume fish en masse would be economically devastating for most littoral countries, putting thousands of fishermen and fleets out of business. Instead, governments are attempting to regulate international waters in order to reduce overfishing and protect remaining fish stocks.

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Before a ship even leaves the dock, a combination of and regulations set by regional fishery management offices (RFMOs) dictate precisely how much fish may be caught, who may catch it, how it is caught, and when they are allowed to fish at all. RFMOs are international bodies made up of multiple governments with a common interest in managing and preserving fish stock in the oceans. However, RFMOs are failing. They were established during an era in which fish stocks were perceived as , and this vast oversight resulted in an inherently ineffective governing structure. Despite the existence of these regulatory bodies, overfishing continues to occur at alarming rates. 

The United States is a leading member of nine RFMOs, such as the North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organization (NASCO), as well as multiple bilateral and regional treaties like the between the United States and 16 Pacific Island parties. But the management of these regional treaties and alliances has long been stranded at sea, by deficient or unavailable data and inadequate systems of administration. Additionally, RFMOs consistently struggle to adequately and effectively enforce conservation efforts, rendering their data unactionable, surplus information.

Mindful Consumption

Another issue is government interference through . The logical action of allowing a fish population to replenish is skipped when countries subsidize their fishing industries, incentivizing fleets to stay out at sea longer, contrary to international agreements. RFMOs cannot properly function if state governments are actively working against treaties. The first step to managing fish stocks and conserving critical species is ending the fishing subsidies, a step the World Trade Organization is attempting to initiate. The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted the first slate of meetings, stalling negotiations and pausing necessary action for another year. 

Eliminating fish from your diet won’t end the overfishing problem — subsidies will keep legal and illegal fishing fleets out in the waters. We, as consumers, don’t have as much power in this particular transaction as we would like to believe. But we can pressure our governments to do better. Spreading the message of government-funded overfishing can help hold elected and appointed leaders accountable in the court of public opinion.

Additionally, consumers and vendors can be mindful of the fish we consume. Utilizing helpful resources like the app informs the everyday consumer what fish they should buy. Canadian-based conservation group takes this one step further, investigating seafood traceability and lobbying Canada’s local and federal governments to require traceability as a common aspect of the seafood industry. 

I’m not ready to forgo my Friday night sushi ritual. But I don’t want to negatively impact the planet exclusively for my benefit. The global fishing industry can be influenced and reformed to improve fish stocks and maintain the economic productivity of the industry itself. Active and aggressive international compromise, as well as an informed public, provides us with a great opportunity for a productive path forward.

*[51łÔąĎ is a  partner of .]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post There’s No Such Thing as Plenty of Fish in the Sea appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

Nicaragua’s latest crisis began in 2018 with a small demonstration against President Daniel Ortega’s changes to the nation’s pension system. Since then, Ortega and pro-government groups have waged a brutal crackdown on protesters, leaving more than 300 people and over 2,000 injured.

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The situation is becoming increasingly alarming in the run-up to the presidential election on November 7. Last month, Ortega’s government carried out sweeping  of top opposition leaders and silenced dissenting voices. There is almost no likelihood of a free and fair later this year. The government’s actions have also contributed to Nicaragua’s perilous economic situation, which could impede the country’s COVID-19 recovery. Only  of the Nicaraguan population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and even fewer have received only one dose.

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Political repression and economic despair have forced over 100,000 Nicaraguans to  the country. Costa Rica has generously hosted nearly 80% of those who left. Thousands more have to Mexico, Panama and the United States. In fact, apprehensions of Nicaraguans at the US southern border increased by 670% January and May of this year. A recent CID Gallup (Interdisciplinary Development Consultants, Inc.)  revealed that nearly two out of every three Nicaraguans still in the country want to migrate to the United States, Spain or Canada, due mainly to Nicaragua’s sociopolitical crisis.

Though Nicaraguan refugees and asylum seekers have been generally well-received by their neighbors, the Costa Rican system is under strain as more Nicaraguans — as well as Venezuelans, Cubans and other asylum seekers — seek protection. Nicaraguans in Costa Rica also face barriers to full economic integration and were hard-hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many lost jobs in the informal and more than three-quarters of Nicaraguans in Costa Rica are experiencing immense hunger. Even more alarming, nearly 60,000 Nicaraguans in Costa Rica made the harrowing decision to  home as opposed to continue living in their host country with limited support.  

Take Notice of Nicaragua

The United States should take several steps to address the ongoing displacement and suffering of Nicaraguans.  

First, the Biden administration should support Costa Rica in its efforts to receive, protect and integrate Nicaraguans. During a recent visit to Costa Rica, Secretary of State Antony Blinken  a valuable signal of US engagement. The administration should convey strong public support for Costa Rica, as a democratic leader in the region that is making serious efforts to provide safety to those in need.

The US government should also look for opportunities — directly or through international organizations like the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) — to support Costa Rica’s asylum system and continue to strongly the Comprehensive Regional Protection and Solutions Framework (MIRPS), the regional initiative to address forced displacement in Central America and Mexico.

Second, as Costa Rica steps up the provision of COVID vaccines for its population, the Biden administration should explore with agencies, such as UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the provision of humanitarian aid to the Costa Rican government bodies and civil society groups supporting the needs of Nicaraguans receiving protection in Costa Rica.

The administration recently announced its plan to distribute  6 million vaccines through the COVAX initiative to Latin American countries, including Costa Rica. This is a welcomed step in supporting Costa Rica during this tenuous time. Yet Washington could go further by supporting assistance to address job losses and food insecurity that Nicaraguans in Costa Rica have faced amid the pandemic, as well as efforts to ensure that these vulnerable individuals remain protected while they await their vaccinations.

Third, the Biden administration must comply with its own laws and international obligations by permitting Nicaraguans fleeing political persecution to seek asylum at the US southern border with Mexico. The US should  to ending a near-complete ban on asylum applications and stop sending people back to dangerous situations. Nicaraguan asylum seekers should have their claims assessed — with access to counsel and without being subjected to detention.  

As the situation in Nicaragua becomes increasingly dire, these measures would be a step in the right direction and would have a positive impact on displaced Nicaraguans, the government of Costa Rica and the region.   

*[Rachel Schmidtke is the advocate for Latin America and Irla Atanda is the special assistant to the president at Refugees International.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post The US Must Pay Attention to Displaced Nicaraguans appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

How Western Media Misunderstand Chinese Culture

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Many readers would see Turkey’s condemnation as a simple case of an Islamist regime railing against Western suppression of Islam. Indeed, the government’s statement was full of accusations of Islamophobia in Europe. Yet such statements, coming out of Turkey, are not as simple as that.

Those same readers might be surprised to discover that Turkey itself had banned headscarves in state institutions until very recently. This might make a governmental condemnation of a ban in Europe seem nonsensical. The reality helps to give context to the Turkish reaction.

Wear Western Hats

Condemnations of headscarf bans might ordinarily be expected to emanate from regimes such as the Iranian theocracy or the Saudi conservative monarchy. Coming out of the secular republic of Turkey, they might appear more curious, if it wasn’t for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s global image as a religious conservative.

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His government’s sensitivity to headscarf bans is very personal indeed. In 2006, his own and other politicians’ wives were not invited to an official event by the then-Turkish president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, due to their wearing of headscarves. In 2007, there was an attempt by the military — a traditional guardian of Turkey’s ruling secular elite — to deny the presidency to Abdullah Gul of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) because his wife wore a headscarf.

Such attitudes, which might appear highly intolerant in countries such as the United Kingdom, make more sense in places like France where the separation of church and state is a foundation of the republic. When modern Turkey was created in 1920, France became the model for how to build a modern state. A key element in the imitation of the French was the desire of Turkey’s first military rulers to suppress Islam.

The Ottoman Empire, of which Turkey was the successor state, was an Islamic empire. Indeed, it was ruled by a caliph, the Islamic equivalent of the pope in Rome. The caliph was the leader of the Muslim world. Turning Turkey into a modern secular republic was akin to removing the pope from the Vatican and banning the wearing of the Christian cross in Catholic Europe. Needless to say, it has created cultural fault lines in Turkey that persist to this day.

To drive home his cultural revolution in the 1920s and 1930s, modern Turkey’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, instituted a ban on the fez — that most famously Turkish of hats — and the turban. He insisted on men wearing the Western brimmed hat, traditionally rejected since it doesn’t allow the wearer to bow their head to the floor in Muslim prayer whilst wearing it.

The veil and headscarf were also discouraged, though the state’s ability to enforce changes in female clothing was slower to be realized than with men’s. The persistence of female cultural clothing as opposed to male could be the subject of an entire essay of its own.

Alongside many other measures, such as the banning of the Sufi Muslim brotherhoods, the closure of mosques, a ban on the call to prayer in Arabic and the removal of the Arabic script, the Turkish authorities attempted to forcibly Westernize Turks.

The Illiberal 1980s

Yet it was not until the military coup d’état of 1980 that Turkey finally outlawed the headscarf officially. It was then that it was banned across all state institutions, including schools, universities, the judiciary, the police and the military. In effect, this meant that girls from religious backgrounds had to choose either to remove their headscarves or not get an education. Only with the rise of the AKP to power in the 2000s did official attitudes begin to shift.

In 2010, Turkish universities finally admitted women who wore headscarves. This was followed a few years later by state bureaucratic institutions, except the judiciary, military and police. In 2016, policewomen were allowed to wear headscarves beneath their caps, and finally in 2017, the military was the last institution to lift the ban.

This is the backdrop against which the Turkish government condemns a headscarf ban — in certain circumstances — decreed by the ECJ. It is a backdrop in which the religiously conservative in Turkey read a narrative of European coercion running back to the founding of the modern state and even earlier.

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The ideas that inspired the military officers who won the Turkish War of Independence — the war with Allied powers that followed the conclusion of the First World War — were imported from Western Europe. Having carved out an almost entirely religiously homogenous Muslim state, they set out to utterly secularize it.

The banning of the headscarf is therefore seen by religiously conservative Turks as an idea imported from Europe and, in some sense, an idea dictated to Muslims by secularized Christian nations. Given the last century of experience in Turkey, it is clear how this view is generated.

Ultimately, the question is one of whether people who like the use of headscarves should tolerate those who don’t wear them, and whether those who dislike the use of headscarves should tolerate those who do wear them. Examples of intolerance abound on either side. A lack of understanding will bring no peace to Turkey or to countries across Europe and the world.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Why Headscarves Matter So Much to Turkey appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.