FADE IN:
INT.OFFICE AT CIA HQ, LANGLEY VA. ā EVENING
TWO SENIOR CIA ANALYSTS: TONY CATANIA (37), TAMMY AINSWORTH (45). THEY HAVE BEEN ASKED TO ASSIST ON STRATEGIC PLANNING FOLLOWING THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
Well, weāre finally getting somewhere.
TONY CATANIA
You mean with the sanctions on Russia?
TAMMY AINSWORTH
No, I mean the whole situation. Just think back two or three years, when Trump was running the show.
TONY CATANIA
Yeah, our hands were tied. It wasnāt till last spring that we could start breathing again.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
Bringing back Victoria Nuland at State was a big step towards reestablishing continuity.
TONY CATANIA
Yeah, you were close to her, werenāt you?
TAMMY AINSWORTH
Actually, I knew her husband, Robert Kagan, from way back, before I joined the agency. He was a classmate of my husband.
TONY CATANIA
Interesting that Biden brought her back. After all, she was the one who got the whole Ukraine scenario rolling back in 2013.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
Yeah, we saw her socially in that period. She pretty much set up our programs we launched with the new regime in 2014 to train the hapless Ukrainians.
TONY CATANIA
And weāre finally getting the payoff. After eight years of preparation — including those four of total uncertainty with Trump — we finally have a State Department that sees the potential.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
How do you see it playing out? I havenāt talked to Vicki lately.
TONY CATANIA
Well, look at what weāve already accomplished. Itās chaos over there and everyone in the media is amplifying the effect. Putin is toast. Our guys are still there applying the pressure.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
You really think Putinās that vulnerable? He may not go easily. The guys at the Pentagon say heās a tough cookie.
TONY CATANIA
But look at the big picture. Weāve taken him for a ride. He went for the bait. You gotta hand it to the Biden team. Planning the Ukrainian escalation on Dombas for February was a stroke of genius. And because of all the weird talk predicting the Russian attack, no one noticed the Ukrainian escalation on the ground that was already taking place.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
Yeah, that was fun for our guys working with the Ukrainian military, building up the drama to take back Dombas and controlling the narrative.
TONY CATANIA
Knowing of course they couldnāt take it without provoking the Russian invasion.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
Yeah, we knew it. Not sure the Ukrainians understood that.
TONY CATANIA
Unlikely, unless someone tipped them off. The corker was Foggy Bottomās brilliant idea of predicting Putinās invasion and even the date. Pure magic. Worthy of Penn and Teller. They got exactly what they wanted.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
More like David Copperfield! That was as good as making the Statue of Liberty disappear.
TONY CATANIA
That was a crazy find for the State Department, better known for bumbling through mismanaged crises.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
And of course the Ukrainians played their role beautifully.
TONY CATANIA
Keeping them in the dark helped.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
Yeah, it always does. Now itās up to them to keep the struggle going as long as possible. Have you heard anything from our guys in Moscow? Putin must be reeling by now.
TONY CATANIA
Nothing much, except the usual psychologizing of the media. We havenāt given them much to work with. Our chief told us to stay calm and keep a low profile. This is gonna take a couple of years, probably. Itās too early to start any of the serious organizing Nulandās team have been planning.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
So we just sit back and watch?
TONY CATANIA
No. Rest assured, weāre on top of this. In any case, thatās what they tell me. Our job is to keep an eye on the media for the moment, feed them the news of the day and make sure they run with it.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
Boring! Thatās not much of a challenge. The media are lapping up everything we give them.
TONY CATANIA
OK. So, weāre doing our job and theyāre doing their job. What more can you ask for?
TAMMY AINSWORTH
Like getting some action going. People expect it from us. There must be more exciting things to do.
TONY CATANIA
The actionās in the Pentagonās hands, not ours, at least until some turning point happens and we have to recalibrate.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
What worries me is the cost of waiting. With elections coming up, it doesnāt look good for the current administration and with Republicans controlling Congress it could get messier. Iād like to see a few things resolved before November when things are likely to start unraveling.
TONY CATANIA
Donāt be such a pessimist. Unless Trump or Pompeo or somebody like that comes back in 2024. Weāre cool till then.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
Yeah, unless the whole damn thing backfires, like Iraq.
TONY CATANIA
Even thatāll take time. In any case, you know about the planning. By 2024 weāll have already moved on to China and Taiwan. Thatās where our focus will be.
TAMMY AINSWORTH
Youāre right. I guess in a year or so we may be writing the whole Ukrainian thing off as just another boring interlude.
TONY CATANIA
You know the score. Thereāll always be bigger challenges ahead.
FADE OUT
N.B. Tony and Tammy are confirming the testimony of retired Swiss colonel and NATO expert, Jacques Baud, who describes events in February in the days preceding the Russian invasion on February 24. Citing āthe daily reports of OSCE observers,ā he reveals that āsince the 16th, the [Ukrainian] artillery shelling of the populations of Donbass has increased dramatically.ā
51³Ō¹Ļās running feature Fly on the Wall is a series of imaginary, but believable dialogues intended to use fiction to help us make sense of the world. Each fictional dialogue takes place in a private setting between sometimes real, sometimes imaginary people in the news or behind the production of news. By exploring the motivation and intentions of the characters, these dialogues provide an opportunity to illuminate the shadows lurking in the secret corners of current events.
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