The CVoter Tracker, an opinion survey of voters, found that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity dipped after his first year in office. A significant 63% of those surveyed found his government to be anti-poor and anti-farmer. As Modi completes five years in office, his popularity is touching an all-time high despite repeated stories about India’s economic woes.

In April 2014, when the coalition led by the Indian National Congress was in power, the top two issues people cared about were corruption and inflation. Six months after Modi won the 2014 elections, unemployment emerged as the most important issue for Indian voters. Till January 2019, this remained the case. Yet voters seem to be less concerned about it right now. What happened?

The explanation is best delivered through an analogy. Imagine you are suffering from many ailments and many parts of your body are aching terribly. You go to a doctor and list down all the problems: headache, stomachache, backache, knee pain, twisted ankle, spondylitis, tennis elbow and a few more aches. But before the doctor begins treating you for all symptoms, you ask him to do something about your backache because you claim it’s killing you. When you go to meet the doctor next, you request relief for knee pain, and the next time you beg relief from spondylitis. All this time, you are suffering from a chronic migraine that refuses to go away, but other pains push it into the background. That is precisely what has happened to the Indian voter’s chronic unemployment problem.

The answer may lie in public perception. Almost 42% of the people who mentioned unemployment as a problem felt that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would solve the problem. In contrast, only 13% believed that the Congress party would be able to do so. Also, 53% of the people surveyed believe that their quality of life would improve in the next 12 months. Only 17% were pessimistic and believed otherwise. This high index of optimism is working in favor of Modi and the BJP.

THE PULWAMA EFFECT AND POPULIST SOPS

The most important factor in the ongoing election might turn out to be the attack on Indian troops in Pulwama. It is an emotive issue that resulted in a national outpouring of grief. Modi’s bold airstrikes won popular acclaim and boosted his popularity. Mainstream media oxygenated the entire episode. As a result, people seem to be willing to forgive Modi’s policy failures as honest mistakes of a risk-taking, dynamic prime minister.

In the past, security has not played much of a role in Indian elections. Manmohan Singh was re-elected as prime minister despite the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Terror strikes and security issues have, for the most part, remained a non-issue in CVoter Tracker data. Before the Pulwama attacks, the recall rate of these issues was a mere 3%. This has risen to a high of 26%. It seems India might be changing. For the first time, security issues are competing with bread and butter ones in India’s post-independence history.

At the start of 2019, 37% of the people surveyed believed their living standards had improved over 12 months, while 31% felt they had declined. The BJP had lost elections in three states in the Hindi heartland: Madya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan. There was real fear that Modi would lose like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the BJP prime minister from 1999 to 2004. The specter of 2004 was haunting the party 15 years after it unexpectedly lost the election.

Modi is an arch pragmatist and decided to go on a populist spree. He gave reservation to economically backward upper-caste families, a measure designed to retain the traditional vote base of his party. Money for farmers, targeted cash transfers to the poor and a budget full of goodies for different sections of society soothed frayed nerves of voters.

By March 7, 2019, 45% people reported improved living standards and only 22% said these standards had declined. On the same date, 51% respondents said they were very satisfied with the working of the Modi government in contrast to 36% on January 1. The combination of populist benefits for voters and patriotism post-Pulwama boosted the fortunes of Modi. In fact, his personal popularity ratings doubled between January 1 and March 7. People repeatedly contrasted Modi’s bold action to Singh’s lukewarm response to the Mumbai attacks more than 10 years ago. The fact that Modi is the first Indian prime minister to attack Pakistan in its own territory, on its own sovereign soil, since Indira Gandhi has worked strongly in his favor.

RAHUL GANDHI, MODI’S BEST FRIEND

At the start of 2019, Rahul Gandhi’s stock seemed to be rising. This fifth-generation heir of the Nehru family had gone around the world to elite universities such as Berkeley and the London School of Economics. His party, the Indian National Congress, had won three state elections in the Hindi heartland. Hearteningly, his approval rating was 23% on January 1. Recently, his approval rating has plummeted to 8%.

Just as Pulwama worked in Modi’s favor, it has worked against Gandhi. Indians no longer trust the Congress party on national security. Most Indians believe that the party has been soft on Pakistan since 2004. Its inability to guarantee security during its time in power and its perceived softness on terror has come back to haunt Congress in 2019.

The BJP has been very clever in its electoral strategy. It has portrayed the 2019 election as a binary choice between Modi and Gandhi. This bipolar choice has resulted in people favoring the 56-inch chested Modi to the weak, inarticulate and ineffectual Gandhi. It has led many pundits to remark that Gandhi is Modi’s best friend. And there is more than an element of truth in that comment.

BANANA PEELS STILL REMAIN

In India, factor has been running strong in elections for the last two decades. Politicians are rarely able to meet people’s expectations. So, people vote in the opposition to punish the government. The Modi government is not exempt to this powerful phenomenon. On January 1, 27% wanted to vote it out. By March 7, this number had dropped to 20%, a still significant figure.

Even as the anti-incumbency number has dropped for the government, the number of undecided voters has risen from 42% to 47%. This is evidence of a polity in flux. These voters could swing either way by the time they enter the polls. This is the most worrisome fact for the BJP. If these voters started blaming Modi for their economic woes, then he too could end up with the same fate as Vajpayee.

In 2014, people voted for a non-Nehruvian management of the economy. They wanted less control by the Indian state, which had spectacularly mismanaged the economy. However, demonetization as well as imposition of the goods and sales tax increased the heavy hand of the state. In fact, many have come to believe that Modi is obsessed with increasing tax revenue to exclusion of everything else. This has strengthened the inspector-raj infamously created by Congress.

In fact, the BJP has made no structural or institutional break from the past. It is just seen as a cleaner and more efficient version of the Indian National Congress. Prime Minister Modi offered no new ideas about governance or the economy. For the last five years, the government has launched one scheme after another and initiated many welfare measures, but the sentiment on the street is negative. Consumption has fallen, investment remains low and controversy rages around unemployment figures. Economic woes might still cause the undecided voter to flip into an anti-incumbent one.

In 2014, the BJP ran as an opposition party enjoying the anti-incumbency factor. Today, it faces an opposition that has come together to unseat it from power. Furthermore, India’s democracy follow the first-past-the-post Westminster model. Victory in 543 distinct seats decides who forms the government, not the winner of a pan-national election. It is well within the realms of possibility that Modi’s BJP might fall short of the magic figure of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of parliament.

A final factor weakening the BJP is not unemployment of the masses, but the unemployability of a large number of its members of parliaments. Many of its MPs are “good-for-nothing” and have relied on the goodwill for Modi to get elected. More than external injury, the BJP faces the clear and present danger of severe “internal bleeding” that might damage its chances. Like the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the BJP is a cadre-based party. The communists lost power and relevance once their cadres rotted and lost touch with the people. The BJP faces a similar risk as its cadre and elected representatives seem to be following the communist path.

*[Click here to read the five-part series.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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South India has a different historical memory to the rest of the country. Neither the Mauryan Empire of ancient times, nor the Mughal Empire of medieval times ruled the south entirely. Only under the British Empire was the south knit together with the north politically. In a discussion on the forthcoming elections conducted by Yogendra Yadav and Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and this author, the south is perhaps where we disagree most.

For this series, we have to thank for inviting us to air our views, even though he failed to keep his word and publish my work. As a result, 51�Թ� has agreed to publish me.

THE YADAV CRYSTAL BALL FOR SOUTH INDIA

Yogendra Yadav argues that the national parliamentary elections in the south cannot be on the presidential pattern as in the north. Here, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cannot project Prime Minister Narendra Modi against Rahul Gandhi, president of the Indian National Congress. This means the election will perforce revolve around regional issues and local personalities.

Yadav points out that the BJP has low stakes in the region. It won a mere 22 seats in the south, of which 17 came from the state of Karnataka alone. In Yadav’s estimation, the BJP will continue to be a marginal player in this region. In the state of Tamil Nadu, M. Karunanidhi, the longstanding leader of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), is dead. So, is his bitter rival Jayalalithaa of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). The DMK and AIADMK have dominated Tamil Nadu for decades. Neither the Congress nor the BJP have been able to hold sway in this most proud of southern states. Yadav argues that the BJP’s attempt to acquire the AIADMK in the post-Jayalalithaa era has failed spectacularly. The anti-BJP DMK seems to be in the ascendant after two terms of AIADMK rule.

As per Yadav, the BJP might fare a bit better in the state of Kerala. Here, it is stirring primal passions over the controversy over the Sabarimala Temple. This might lead to a breakthrough in electoral representation in Kerala. However, the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system is likely to lead to higher vote share, but not necessarily seats in the national parliament.

He argues that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) might not fare well in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Chandrababu Naidu, the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh and leader of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), is forging a against the BJP. Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) has declared he is “” and hit out at both national parties. For Rao, both the Congress and the BJP centralize power in New Delhi instead of delegating it to the states. Therefore, he is trying to create a national third front of regional parties to challenge the two dominant national players and this might play out well with his voters.

Yadav predicts that the BJP might lose its hold on Karnataka as well. In the for the state legislative assembly, the saffron party won 104 seats and emerged as the largest party in the state. However, the Indian National Congress with 80 seats and Janata Dal (Secular) with 37 seats combined to keep the BJP out of power in Karnataka. It is important to note that the BJP did not get the highest vote share. It managed only 36.3% of the vote as compared to 38.1% for the Congress party. In the forthcoming national elections, the BJP faces a coalition of Congress and Janata Dal (Secular), making a landslide defeat a distinct possibility because the latter garnered 18.3% of the vote.

Yadav estimates that the Bharatiya Janata Party might lose five to 10 seats in the south. This means that it is likely to win a mere 10-17 seats in this part of the country, making it a marginal party in the south.

YADAV IS RIGHT ON BIG PICTURE, NOT ON DETAILS

It is hard to disagree with the broad thrust of Yadav’s analysis. However, the devil lies in the details and pollsters know that fine margins lead to victories or defeats. The Congress party is certainly likely to gain seats, but this is unlikely to occur in Karnataka. Instead, it will gain a boost in Kerala and Telangana.

In Kerala, there is a big upswing in support for the BJP. CVoter Tracker reveals that the BJP might win 17% of the vote, but it needs a further 5% swing to win a single seat in the state. This is possible but not probable. More importantly, the BJP is rising in Kerala by whittling away the vote share of the communist-led Left Front. This is deeply ironic because it is in Kerala that the first in the world assumed office in 1957. Yet the FPTP system means that the BJP will not benefit from this increased vote share. Ironically, it will only help its national rival, the Congress, to sweep the state. As per CVoter Tracker data, the Congress would gain eight seats and allies of its United Progressive Alliance (UPA) another four. A gain of 12 seats for the Congress-led UPA would definitely shake up politics in Kerala.

In Andhra Pradesh, Naidu’s dumping of the BJP and embracing the Congress will lead to a loss of 18 seats for the NDA. Yet life is never uninteresting in Indian politics. Another regional party the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) is going hammer and tongs at Naidu. Although YSRCP has declared that it will not ally with the Bharatiya Janata Party, politics makes and the situation in Andhra Pradesh might not be as cast in stone as it seems.

There is another pertinent point most pollsters forget. First, the BJP has long had a powerful presence in both Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. In 1998, the party polled in the parliamentary elections. The Naidu-led TDP won 12 seats as compared to 22 won by the Congress. As a result, the canny Naidu entered an alliance with the BJP for the 1999 elections. It is important to note that the BJP sacrificed Banjara Hills in Hyderabad for Raisina Hill in New Delhi. Simply put, the interests of the local BJP leadership were sacrificed at the altar of gaining power at the national level.

The same story holds true in Telangana. The BJP was the first major party to demand the creation of a separate state but shelved this demand because of pressure by TDP, which wanted an undivided Andhra Pradesh. As a result, the Rao-led TRS was able to take up the battle flag dropped by the BJP and ride to power on the back of his unremitting campaign for the new state of Telangana.

Most analysts forget that the BJP polled more than the TDP in the 17 seats in Telangana. The BJP’s alliance with the TDP and abdication of the Telangana cause was pure hara-kiri. It contested a mere 15 out of 119 assembly seats and five out of 17 national parliamentary ones, handing the region on a platter to the TDP along with its own sacrificial head. Local BJP leaders still bemoan this historic blunder.

Five years after 1999, the TDP lost in Andhra Pradesh and took down the BJP-led NDA government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The Congress and the TRS now emerged as big winners in 2004 at the national and regional level respectively. In 2009, the Naidu dumped the BJP and, as a result, the TDP suffered a humiliating defeat. In 2014, the BJP made amends by striking up an alliance on better terms, but Rao rode to power on the euphoria of the creation of the new state of Telangana. That euphoria might have worn off and things might take an interesting turn not only in Andhra Pradesh, but also in Telangana.

STICKY WICKET IN KARNATAKA AND THE TAMIL NADU GOOGLY

Yadav makes a valid point but forgets one thing. The Old Mysore region is very different to the rest of Karnataka. The Janata Dal (Secular) commands overwhelming support in the Old Mysore region but is a spent force elsewhere. This means that its alliance with the Indian National Congress might not lead to such an advantage in the forthcoming polls for the national parliament. The recent by-elections for three seats to the parliament demonstrated that the BJP increased, not just retained its vote share.

In fact, CVoter Tracker data reveals that the UPA coalition of Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka would command a staggering 57% lead in Old Mysore, wiping out the BJP entirely. However, the BJP commands a 50% plus vote share in two out of six regions and has a vote share near or above 40% in three out of six regions. As of now, the UPA stands to win 21 out of 28 seats in Karnataka, but there has been a recent swing in favor of the BJP and it might fare better than Yadav estimates at the elections for the national parliament.

Yadav and this author largely agree on our predictions for Tamil Nadu. Yet it is important to remember that this is a state in flux. Both Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa are dead. In a film-obsessed state where all its towering leaders for nearly five decades have come from the film industry, superstar is apparently poised to enter politics. This has set the cat among the pigeons in Tamil Nadu, leaving both the DMK and the AIADMK in a tizzy. Such is Rajinikanth’s popularity that he could very well become Tamil Nadu’s next leader, but it is also possible that his popularity might not translate into seats.

The reason Tamil Nadu matters is because its leaders played kingmakers in New Delhi from 1996 to 2014. Until Narendra Modi’s resounding victory over four years ago, the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu combined with 42 in West Bengal made them the de facto swing states for India. These two states rendered Uttar Pradesh (UP), India’s most populous state with 80 seats in the national parliament, redundant. The regional parties that dominated UP could not match the savvy operators of the southern and eastern coasts.

By winning 73 out of 80 seats in UP, Modi was able to keep the late Jayalalithaa out of NDA even though they had a perfectly harmonious relationship. In 2019, Tamil Nadu might be back in the spotlight. But neither the Congress nor the BJP matter in this state on the southeastern tip of India. Regional actors will battle it out for dominance and the winner might well decide to support either national party in New Delhi. The next Tamil leader might again be the nation’s kingmaker.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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As election fever heats up, pollsters in India are debating outcomes. Yogendra Yadav and Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and this author are crunching numbers and justifying their inferences to the public.

The three of us have Shekhar Gupta of to thank for this series of articles. He invited us to in “the spirit of healthy disagreement.” Since then, Gupta seems to have , but 51�Թ� has stepped in to publish my side of the story.

THE YADAV CRYSTAL BALL FOR NORTH INDIA

Yadav believes that the state of Jammu and Kashmir hardly affects the national equation. In Punjab, the implosion of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which literally translates as the Common Man’s Party, plays to the advantage of the Indian National Congress. He estimates that the Congress party will make small gains in Punjab and cites local body elections as an indicator of the swing in popular sentiment toward India’s oldest political party. Yadav predicts a loss of three to four seats for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Punjab.

He takes the view that the BJP will lose in Haryana on account of the unpopularity of the chief minister of the state, Manohar Lal Khattar. He forecasts that the BJP will suffer in Delhi too and is unlikely to sweep all constituencies as last time. Yadav sees only one fly in the ointment for the Congress. It is none other than Rahul Gandhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is far more popular than Jawaharlal Nehru’s great-grandson. The former is seen as self-made while the latter as a feckless heir.

Yadav says that a presidential-style contest between Modi and Gandhi would benefit the former. Therefore, the BJP is likely to shift attention from Khattar to Modi. They are likely to keep the focus on the more credible central government instead of the unpopular state leaders to boost their electoral prospects.

TROUBLES FOR THE BJP

The BJP’s troubles in India’s northernmost state, Jammu and Kashmir, have made headlines around the world. The state is under for the eighth time since June. Till then, the Bharatiya Janata Party was in an opportunistic alliance with the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP). This experiment has completely backfired for both parties, but the BJP has the consolation of the captive Hindu vote in Jammu that remains loyal despite the staggering ineptitude of its local leadership.

The same cannot be said for the BJP’s hold on Buddhist Ladakh. This spectacular land could have become a stronghold of the BJP by now, but the party took the Ladakhis for granted in much the same way as the Hindu inhabitants of Jammu. Consequently, the BJP’s hold on his plateau region is gone for a toss and it is a big loss.

The beneficiary in the state will be the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), the traditional ruling party of the state. Led by the second and third generation scions of the Abdullah family, JKNC is yet another family fiefdom like Shiv Sena. Now, it will benefit from the backlash against the JKPDP and make yet another comeback.

In Punjab, Yadav might be underestimating the support for the Indian National Congress. The Aam Aadmi Party faces complete meltdown. CVoter Tracker indicates that the Congress is poised to win nine of 13 seats for parliament. Until 2017, it appeared that the AAP might break out of its stronghold in Delhi and notch up a victory in Punjab. CVoter called the election in AAP’s favor, but the results in favor of the Congress proved it wrong. Since the heady days of 2017, the AAP’s support base has whittled away.

Speculation about the decline of the AAP has already begun. Controversy over links with has hit them hard. Khalistanis are Sikh radicals who have long wanted a separate nation state called Khalistan. Far too many forget that the Punjab insurgency was once bloodier than the Kashmiri one. The Indian military had to enter the Golden Temple to flush out extremists who fought a spirited gun battle. This operation led to such resentment that Sikh bodyguards assassinated Indira Gandhi, India’s most powerful prime minister to date.

The AAP’s association with Khalistan has evoked ghosts from the past. Voters have moved back to the Congress, the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), the regional party of the Sikhs and the fiefdom of the Badal clan, despite their manifold flaws. As things stand, all four members of parliament from the AAP will lose in the election. The biggest beneficiary will be the Congress, where Captain Amarinder Singh has proved to be a canny chief minister and has put his party into pole position.

In the two states of Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP is losing three seats but its current and former allies, the SAD and the PDP, are losing a further six. This means that the BJP-led NDA is losing nine seats.

IT’S COMPLICATED IN HARYANA, DELHI AND RAJASTHAN

CVoter Tracker data differs from Yadav in its forecast on Haryana. Yet the data agrees with Yadav in his assessment that BJP leader Khattar is an extremely unpopular chief minister in Haryana. The BJP is helped by what pollsters have termed the (IoU). India has the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system left behind by the British. In such a system, the largest party can win with even 30% or less of the vote if the remaining 70% is divided among other parties and the second largest party gets 29.99% support. If IoU is low, a relatively unpopular party can win because of a divided opposition.

For decades, the Indian National Congress was the big beneficiary of FPTP. Now, the BJP has inherited that advantage. In Haryana, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) is the major regional party led by Devi Lal’s descendants. In the land where siblings once fought the epic Mahabarata battle, Devi Lal’s grandsons, Ajay Chautala and Abhay Chautala, have declared war on each other, fragmenting the Jat vote and wrecking in the process. Like Shiv Sena, these dynasts are removed from grassroots realities and alienated from their voter base.

The implosion of INLD is bad news for the Congress party in the short run. The former is polling at 20% while the latter at 30%. Sadly, for both, the BJP, despite its incompetent and unpopular chief minister, still has the support of 40% of the voters as per CVoter Tracker data. This might allow the BJP to win seven out of 10 seats they won in 2014, limiting their loss to three seats in Haryana. In 2004, the Congress won nine out of 10 seats in parliament with .

As in Haryana, the BJP is benefiting from a divided opposition in Delhi. It is not only the bickering between the AAP and the Congress, but also the implosion of the AAP that is playing out in favor of the BJP. Yadav, one of the most eminent of India’s pollster was a founding member of the AAP. Arvind Kejriwal, the temperamental chief minister of Delhi, has kicked out Yadav and other heavyweight intellectuals. This benefits the BJP but is a godsend for the Congress. In 2015, the AAP won 67 of 70 seats in Delhi, getting 54% of the popular vote and leaving the Congress with a mere 9%. The rest of the vote went to the BJP.

While the BJP vote share has remained largely steady, people in Delhi are shifting back to the Congress from the AAP. For the first time since 2013, CVoter Tracker data shows that the Congress has pulled ahead of the AAP. If the AAP and the Congress ally, then the BJP is toast. If not, then the low IoU and the FPTP system favors the BJP, which may repeat its 7-0 performance of 2014 albeit with a lower vote share.

Finally, another phenomenon deserves attention. Termed, the “split-vote” phenomenon, this author was the first to flag it 10 years ago. Simply put, Indian voters have been voting for different parties depending on the level of the government. They may vote in Party A to local councils, Party B to the state legislature and Party C to the national parliament.

In , the slogan “Modi tukhse bair nahin, par Rani teri khair nahin” is on almost everyone’s lips. This literally translates as, “Modi, we have no enmity with you, but we are not sparing the local queen.” The current chief minister of Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje, is from one of India’s former royal families that had cozy relations with the British and then reinvented itself in modern electoral politics. She has a reputation for incompetence and arrogance. Furthermore, Rajasthan continues to suffer from rampant corruption and she has failed to improve the state administration. Unsurprisingly, Rajasthan’s public is hell bent on booting her out, even though it retains some sympathy for Modi. As a result, the Congress will win a landslide in the state legislature, but that might not translate into seats in the Indian parliament.

It is a well-known secret that, in many states run by the BJP, chief ministers would lose and the opposition would triumph. However, the same voters might cast their vote for the BJP candidate for the national parliament for a simple reason. They prefer Narendra Modi to Rahul Gandhi, making the half-Italian, rather good-looking Nehruvian heir the most unlikely best friend of a rustic, hirsute and plebeian Modi.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

The post Might the Congress Make a Comeback in Northern India? appeared first on 51�Թ�.

As election fever heats up, pollsters in India are debating outcomes. Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen once wrote about “,” and I have entered an argument with Yogendra Yadav and Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

I must thank Shekhar Gupta of who invited us to in “the spirit of healthy disagreement.” Since then, Gupta seems to have . Therefore, I am publishing my argument on 51�Թ�.

THE WEST IS THE CRADLE OF THE BJP

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has close ties with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The RSS translates in English as the National Volunteers’ Organization and is controversial to say the least. Many, including the , describe it as a right-wing, Hindu nationalist organization that is “the ideological fountainhead of the BJP.” Tellingly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was a full-time RSS worker before he became a politician.

Most people forget that the RSS was born in Nagpur. In 1950, published a remarkable paper on the organization that is now prescribed reading in most universities. As he observed, the founder of the RSS was a Marathi Deshashtha Brahmin from Nagpur. The American scholar failed to point out that Marathi Brahmins nearly replaced the Mughal Empire in the 18th century before the British took over. Even today, Nagpur, a historic town in the western Indian state of Maharashtra, continues to be the headquarters of the RSS.

Therefore, it is little surprise that Maharashtra and Gujarat have been strongholds of the BJP. Modi, the first backward caste prime minister of India, was the chief minister of Gujarat for 13 years before he captured power in New Delhi. For a party that won merely two seats in 1984, the landslide victory in 2014 represented a . Needless to say, western India voted almost en bloc for the BJP.

THE YADAV CRYSTAL BALL FOR THE WEST

The eminent pollster Yadav estimates that western India is likely to witness a business-as-usual election with a small dent in the BJP tally. In 2014, it won all but six seats in this region. Things have certainly changed since.

Gujarat has experienced rural unrest with a prominent agrarian community agitating to gain advantage of India’s controversial . As per this policy, a certain percentage of government jobs are reserved for communities designated as backward or oppressed. As if trouble in Gujarat was not enough, farmers in Maharashtra marched 180 kilometers to Mumbai to against the Bharatiya Janata Party. Shiv Sena, the party’s coalition partner in the state, has turned into a and is fighting the BJP for supremacy. In , the BJP is battling “disgruntled partymen and impatient allies” as the state chief minister’s health fails.

As per Yadav, the BJP will contain its losses. He opines that Gujarat may be restive, but it will end up voting for a Gujarati prime minister. Shiv Sena might make up with the BJP and their coalition is likely to win in Maharashtra. As per Yadav, the BJP could limit its losses to 15-20 in this region.

ALLIES, NOT BJP LOSING IN THE WEST

The CVoter Tracker is revealing numbers different to what Yadav predicts. Although it is too early to make firm predictions with parties still jostling and alliances yet unformed, it is clear that the vote share of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has fallen from 54% to 43.8% in October. In the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, this would lead to the BJP winning 50 instead of 53 seats. That does not seem to be a significant figure, but there is a sting in the tail.

So far, Shiv Sena has been a part of NDA. CVoter Tracker has assumed it might part ways with the BJP. In that scenario, it would suffer a catastrophic loss of as many as 14 seats. There is a real risk that this regional party might be decimated and even their bastion in Mumbai might fall. Yadav’s estimate about seat loss for the BJP applies more to the Shiv Sena. As of now, the NDA would lose seats, but the BJP, the biggest party in this coalition, is escaping with a minimal loss.

In the long run, Shiv Sena’s potential meltdown might be good news for the BJP. The two parties have been described as frenemies. They are both battling for the same core support base. Shiv Sena is based on both Hindu identity and . This focus on regional identity is a problem for the BJP, which is trying desperately hard to be a national party. The BJP has been trying to sublimate Marathi pride into Hindu pride and has outsmarted Shiv Sena so far.

Led by Devendra Fadnavis, the shrewd chief minister of Maharashtra, the BJP has been stealing Shiv Sena’s clothes as well the opposition’s. Most recently, he has been appealing to the , traditionally supporters of the Indian National Congress and local strongman Sharad Pawar. Shiv Sena is a fiefdom of the Thackeray clan that has been weakened by a family feud. Its dynastic leadership has become disconnected with its supporters and Fadnavis is taking advantage of it.

Goa sends only two members of parliament to New Delhi. Even here, the BJP might be in a better position than what Yadav estimates. The key state is Gujarat, though. This is Modi’s home turf where he earned his chops as a potential national leader. In 2017, the opposition mounted a rather strong challenge to the BJP here. Yet this strong showing disguised the fact that the BJP won 49% of the votes in comparison to 41% for the Congress party. It resulted in the former winning 99 seats, primarily in urban conglomerations, while the Congress won 77 seats, largely in rural areas.

In 2014, all 26 of Gujarat’s members of parliament belonged to the BJP. CVoter Tracker estimates that 55% of Gujaratis are likely to vote for the BJP in the national elections, with 38% opting for the Congress. It appears that the pull of the son of the soil cannot be underestimated. Gujaratis draw great pride from the fact that Modi is the first full five-year term prime minister from this coastal state. This makes it quite possible that 26-0 might be the BJP-Congress score in Gujarat once again, giving the ruling party a big boost in its home turf of western India.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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As India goes to the polls in 2019, election fever has hit the country. Two of India’s pollsters, Yogendra Yadav and Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), differ starkly in their assessments about the fortunes of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Shekhar Gupta of invited these two gentlemen to in “the spirit of healthy disagreement.” I joined that conversation and the invitation to me. Since then, Gupta seems to have and, therefore, this author’s side of the argument is appearing on 51�Թ�.

THE ART, NOT SCIENCE OF OPINION POLLS

Opinion polls are a treacherous climb even under fair weather. After all, they are based on a miniscule sample of voters, susceptible to several errors and products of judgment, not exact scientific methods. Still, when done well, opinion polls tend to be within range of each other.

For instance, the Centre for Voting Opinion and Trends in Election Research (CVoter), which this author leads, and CSDS do not differ greatly in their predictions for the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, a narrow victory for the Indian National Congress, while CSDS forecasts a for the BJP. In Rajasthan, both CVoter and CSDS envision for the Congress and defeat for the BJP. The only difference is that CVoter foresees a landslide win, while CSDS anticipates a slimmer margin.

While differences between CVoter and CSDS might be marginal, these two organizations differ dramatically with . He opines that the BJP is staring at a loss of nearly 100 seats from its 2014 tally. Yadav takes the view that the BJP would gain a few seats in the east, losing many in the west and the south. In Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, the BJP is likely to lose its current hold. The same holds true for the rest of the , a term analogous to the Bible belt in the US.

CVoter and CSDS estimate that Yadav is erring on the high side. Therefore, this author will examine the eminent pollster’s prognostications, region by region, starting with the east.

Yadav argues that the east of India is the only region that offers the BJP a growth opportunity. In 2014, the BJP won a mere 11 seats of 88. Since then, opinion polls have indicated growing support for the party. In Odisha, the increased support base has come at the expense of the Congress. On the other hand, the BJP has snatched support away from the Left Front coalition led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in West Bengal.

Yadav concludes that the BJP will be a force to reckon with in eastern India. The key question for 2019 is whether it can convert its votes into additional seats this election. The first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system left behind by the British can often be unkind to parties with significant vote shares. An increase in votes may not necessarily lead to the same corresponding increase in seats. Despite the pitfalls of FPTP, Yadav estimates that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will win an additional 20 seats in the east.

This author largely agrees with Yadav’s observations when it comes to the eastern part of the country. The latest CVoter Tracker forecasts a gain of 24 seats for the NDA in the east, a mere four seats more than the eminent pollster’s estimate. As per the data of CVoter Tracker, the NDA has increased its vote share from 24.2% in 2014 to an estimated 36.2% in October 2018, a massive upswing of 12%. Curiously, this vote share is not coming at the cost of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). The UPA vote share has gone up from 19.3% to 19.7% during the same period. What is going on?

THE LEFT IS BEING LEFT OUT

The key development in the east is that the NDA is taking away votes from the Left Front. The communists have always claimed to lead national parties but, in reality, have led regional parties with two bases: the southern state of Kerala and the eastern giant West Bengal. The NDA is shifting the electoral landscape in eastern India and emerging as the only credible challenger to Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal and leader of All India Trinamool Congress (TMC). As a result, the Left Front is getting left out.

Once, West Bengal was the bastion of the Left Front. From 1977 to 2011, the communist-led Left Front ruled the state. To put this in perspective, this government outlasted the collapse of the Soviet Union by 20 years. Now, the TMC and the NDA are duking it out in a two-horse race. As per CVoter Tracker data, the former is polling at 41% while the latter at 31%. If identity politics grows and communal polarization increases, then Muslim votes could shift from the Congress to the TMC even as Hindu votes might move from the Left Front to NDA.

This could lead to 35% voting for NDA and 45% opting for TMC, which might give all 42 seats in West Bengal to the TMC. However, this is unlikely. As per CVoter Tracker data, the NDA is poised to win nine seats because its voters will have a majority in some constituencies in the state. Although the TMC might command a 10% lead is for the state as a whole, this lead varies dramatically in the state’s five regions.

The TMC leads the NDA by 21% in the north border regions and by 13% in deltaic region, but its lead narrows to about 5% in the northern hills and is merely 2% in the southern plains. In the highlands, it is the NDA that leads TMC by about 3%. This region comprises districts like Jhargram and Purulia, where the TMC is understandably accusing the NDA of joining hands with Maoists for electoral gains. Were there to be a vote swing in just two of the five regions of West Bengal, a 21-21 tie between the TMC and the NDA is not outside the realms of the possible, even though it is not very probable.

The NDA may still trail the TMC in West Bengal, but its fortunes are burning bright in Odisha. Southwest of West Bengal, the state of Odisha has long been dominated by Biju Janata Dal (BJD), a regional party led by Naveen Patnaik. Like many parties in India, the BJD is a family fiefdom. Chief Minister Patnaik is the son of Biju Patnaik, a larger-than-life figure who made his name as a pilot in World War II and the post-independence conflict in Kashmir.

In Odisha, the NDA is polling 38% while the BJD is flailing at 33%. As in the northeastern Indian states of Tripura and Assam, the NDA might be about to win big in Odisha. Of course, there is always the possibility that the BJP makes a realpolitik deal with the BJD. Patnaik could join the NDA and retain his throne as a regional satrap to the BJP. Odisha demonstrates that the east is turning saffron — the color of the Buddha, Hindu priests and, most pertinently, the BJP.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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