Reports indicate that the problems facing Afghanistan, particularly economic, have multiplied with the rise of the Taliban. At the same time, no nation in the world has yet recognized the Taliban as the legitimate rulers. The Taliban are known by many Afghans as a group that seized power by military force. It is almost impossible for the people to recognize a group that has committed the worst crimes in recent years, including using car  on civilians. When the Taliban ruled Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001, they denied girls the right to seek an education. Since returning to power in August this year, they have doing so.

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Despite they would, the Taliban have not formed an inclusive government. What they mean by inclusiveness is a  made up of only men, the clergy and, most importantly, members of the Pashtun community. Notably, the latter are mostly affiliated with the , a militant group that has close ties to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The Taliban cannot even a government that includes all of their members due to the lack of consensus among themselves.

The Taliban will face challenges in gaining political legitimacy, resolving the economic crisis and maintaining public order. In short, they cannot govern. Taliban militants have been trained to carry out suicide attacks and irregular guerrilla warfare. They are not trained to maintain public order and manage government affairs. For this reason, the future of Afghanistan looks bleak.

Mass Hunger

An increase in poverty is inevitable in Afghanistan. The UN Development Programme reports that  of civilians could plunge below the poverty line by mid-2022. According to a of the World Food Program (WFP), 60% of those living in the northern provinces of Afghanistan are currently suffering from hunger and this figure will likely increase in the months ahead. Aid organizations such as Doctors Without Borders have of an “impending humanitarian crisis.”

There is currently a severe economic crisis in the country. Many civilians, including former employees of NGOs and the previous Afghan government, are either unemployed or have no hope of earning a living. The Taliban have not allowed female staff to return to work, which means that these women, many of whom were the sole breadwinners, have no way to make money for their families. The unskilled and manual labor workforce has now minimal or no income at all. Alarmingly, farmers have suffered due to drought, winter is fast approaching and medical supplies are running in the country’s remote provinces. These incidents take place when the price of raw materials has risen . Millions of children are likely to be malnourished as a result of the growing economic crisis.

The all-male Taliban government is not capable of coping with such problems. It expects the international community to resume financial and humanitarian assistance following a freeze on in August amidst the Taliban takeover. The plight of the people and the impending famine seem to be a winning card that the Taliban are using to  with the international community. Given that it is not in their interest to do so, the Taliban are unlikely to address poverty and unemployment themselves. For this reason, with the arrival of winter, a humanitarian catastrophe will occur.

Yet the Afghan crisis is not only about those suffering from hunger. Aside from mass poverty, a new wave of conflict is likely to come.

Sectarian Violence in Afghanistan

With the rise of the Taliban, violence in Afghanistan has not only increased but has also become more complex. The biggest threat to the country is the Islamic State in Khurasan Province (ISKP), which is at odds with the Taliban. ISKP is affiliated with the Islamic State (IS) group that swept through Syria and Iraq in 2014, and it has launched deadly attacks on the Hazara and Shia minorities in Afghanistan.

On October 8, an ISKP suicide bomber attacked worshipers at a mosque attended by Hazaras in the northern city of Kunduz, killing at least 100  and injuring more than 150. A week later during Friday prayers, ISKP launched another deadly attack on Shia Afghans, this time in the southern Kandahar province. At least  were killed.

According to , the Russian president, militants “from Iraq, Syria with experience in military operations” are entering Afghanistan. Although militias operating under the aegis of the Taliban do not make the group’s fighters much different from Islamic State jihadists — both groups use similar — the influx of foreign terrorists from the Middle East into Afghanistan heralds a much darker future for the country.

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Jihadists entering Afghanistan have more practical and strategic warfare experience in places like Syria and Iraq. In these countries, IS and al-Qaeda leaders recruited people by igniting sectarian tensions. This strategy has previously been used by , a Jordanian militant who led al-Qaeda in Iraq. In 2005, he declared an  against Iraqi Shias, which brought death and destruction to the country. The violent turmoil of the past decade in the Middle East owes much to this strategy.

It can now be said that there is no real government in Afghanistan to stop foreign jihadists from attacking civilians. With this in mind, the gathering of fighters from across the world and the continued attacks on Afghanistan’s Shia Hazara community will eventually turn the country into a field of sectarian strife. Not only is ISKP threatening Afghan Shias, but the Taliban will also not be safe. Reports indicate that Taliban members have occasionally fallen victim to as well.

A Terrifying Future

Civilians in Afghanistan are now facing one of the worst challenges of their lives. The most devastating threat to them is not even mass poverty. Rather, it is the beginning of a much more violent conflict in a country that is on the verge of a new civil war. Indeed, Afghans have become more economically vulnerable, but not all of their problems are reduced to poverty.

We are currently seeing an Afghanistan where neither the media can operate freely, nor can human rights observers monitor impartially. Most of Afghanistan’s skilled workforce has left the country. With journalists and human rights defenders no longer living there and few job opportunities for those who remain, a terrifying future awaits.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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Now, with the final withdrawal of US and NATO forces, nearly 38 million Afghans have been handed over to a group that has conducted suicide attacks, oppressed women and massacred minorities.

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Chaotically, people packed their bags and hurried to Kabul International Airport, apparently the only way left to get out of the country. Some did not even have visas and passports, without knowing their destination. The only thing they wanted was to get as far away from Afghanistan as possible. Some Afghans boarded planes, but others were unable to get on and desperately clung to an American aircraft that was about to take off. While some managed to safely arrive in other countries, others from the plane. This included a 19-year-old Afghan national footballer who his life.

In a matter of weeks, the Taliban have managed to dismantle an army built by the United States over the past two decades. Officially, the Afghan forces were at least four times the size of the Taliban and had greater combat capabilities. This failure was unpredictable for the Afghan people and anyone involved in Afghanistan. How is it possible for such a costly army to kneel before a relatively irregular terrorist group after receiving training from the world’s most powerful military?

Why Did the Afghan Army Kneel?

There are many possible  for this catastrophic defeat. This includes the lack of NATO air support for Afghan troops, low morale and faith in resisting the Taliban, widespread corruption in the army and among politicians,  deals and mass desertions. Reports indicate that some  and corps of the army had not a war against the Taliban in some provinces. This meant local forces who took up arms were on the front lines in key cities were without support from the Afghan army. Soldiers in the  in Mazar-e-Sharif left their base without informing their allies. The local commanders in this strategic province later the army’s withdrawal a betrayal and .

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Over the years, Afghanistan’s defense and security institutions have become increasingly corrupt and inefficient due to the interference of politicians. This is according to , the former deputy defense minister. In an interview with , she claimed that decisions at all levels of the army were illegally taken from the Ministry of Defense and assigned to the office of Hamdullah Mohib, the national security adviser. These included critical decisions over war, intelligence, the appointment of officials, training and personnel matters. Therefore, “the Ministry of Defense had no role in the war,” she said, “and all commanders, from district commanders to commanders of corps, had to be close to Hamadullah Mohib.”

An “Unpatriotic” Fugitive

Ashraf Ghani, the now-former president, made the national army an incapable institution by unnecessarily dismissing and appointing personnel during his rule. The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF), as the military was officially known as, was not disintegrated by the Taliban, but by the mismanagement of Afghan politicians. Ghani used his position to marginalize non-Pashtun actors from the government. When the Taliban began their  of seizing districts, large cities and then the capital, commanders of corps and divisions  one after another without putting up a fight.

In an interview with , General Yasin Zia, the head of the joint chiefs of staff in the Afghan government, said that Ghani had betrayed the soldiers by making wrong decisions and fleeing the country during a war. , the former security adviser, also told the broadcaster that the president was the main culprit in the defeat of ANDSF. For the past seven years, Mohaqiq said, Ghani was overwhelmed by the illusion of power, made wrong decisions and, upon witnessing Taliban fighters reaching Kabul, fled the country with in cash. 

Ghani’s presidency will be remembered as one of the worst points in Afghan history. Thanks to his mismanagement and the crimes that took place during his rule, Afghans have accused Ghani of committing  against national interests. His political opponents have long him as one of the biggest  to peace. 

In particular, the president did not back down when US politicians, almost all members of the Afghan High Peace Council and even Taliban leaders gathered in Qatar and called for an interim government. In early March, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrote a  to Ghani, saying the threats are too high and that a UN-led peace agreement with the Taliban should be signed. If this was not done, Blinken warned, the security situation in Afghanistan would spiral out of control. Shortly thereafter, several high-level US delegations, including , visited Afghanistan to speak to Ghani about reaching an agreement with the Taliban. The warnings went unheeded. 

Can the Taliban be Trusted?

Since seizing power, the Taliban have announced a general amnesty for all people in Afghanistan, including employees of foreign institutions. According to this, everyone has immunity. As per Taliban leaders, women can return to work by observing Islamic law. Media outlets can also operate freely, as long as they follow Islamic principles. Nevertheless, it cannot simply be concluded that the Taliban are trustworthy. In the coming weeks, it will become clearer if they are tolerant toward women, minorities and activists. 

In 1996, the Taliban an amnesty as they entered Kabul and took control of Afghanistan; they ruled the country until the US-led invasion in 2001. Yet soon after, the Taliban launched a retaliatory campaign. The worst crimes against humanity took place during the Taliban’s rule. In August 1998, thousands of Hazaras, an Afghan minority, were massacred in Mazar-e-Sharif. Pakistani writer Ahmed Rashid  the killing as “genocidal in its ferocity.” 

Taliban leaders who have appeared in the media portray a more moderate regime. They speak of forming an inclusive government, tolerance toward minorities and respecting women’s rights. But this is far from the reality.

Taliban militants are still committed to the group’s . Their fighters follow extremist thought, such as the school and , one of the most basic principles of which is intolerance toward other Islamic sects. There have been reports of jihadists from and other fighting the Taliban. According to the United Nations, there are between 8,000 and 10,000  in Afghanistan who are either affiliated with the Taliban, al-Qaeda or the Islamic State in Khurasan Province (IS-KP).

Afghans Are Left at the Mercy of the Taliban

The Taliban have so far worked closely with terrorist groups operating in Central Asia and South Asia. Needless to say, this cooperation is likely to continue in the future. The Taliban’s view of religious principles is at  with human dignity and civil rights. In particular, the Taliban’s definition of women’s rights and freedom does not apply to Afghan society.

The group’s fighters have no faith in democracy and elections, and they are suspicious of women and minorities. Taliban leaders try to portray the group as tolerant in the media and talk about women’s rights to gain international support. In practice, their fighters on the ground that “women are mindless in general knowledge and religion.” 

The Taliban do not have a development-oriented mindset. They do not have a plan or even skilled followers to govern, and they certainly cannot manage the country’s shattered economy. A Taliban government would presumably be accompanied by widespread opium cultivation, drug trafficking and human rights violations. 

The theory that the Taliban have changed is just an illusion. The Taliban have already begun house-to-house inspections searching for Afghans who worked with US and NATO forces. There are also reports indicating that people, despite a general amnesty, have been  publicly. Four former Afghan and a relative of a  have reportedly been killed by Taliban fighters.

The Taliban have not treated ethnic and religious minorities well either. Just one night after their takeover, the Taliban’s unbridled fighters  a statue of Abdul Ali Mazari, a Hazara religious and national leader, in Bamiyan province where the Taliban demolished two 1,600-year-old  in 2001. According to , the Taliban brutally massacred nine Hazaras in July this year after seizing the rural village of Mundarakht in the Malistan district of Ghazni province. Six of them were allegedly shot dead and three were tortured to death by Taliban fighters.

The Taliban have no suitable personnel and capacity to run a country, and their only means of maintaining power is carrying out large-scale violence and ruling through fear. Under the Taliban, media will be censored and civilians will be forced to live like people in the dark ages. With the Taliban taking power, poverty, violence and organized repression will rage in the country. During their rule, civil rights advocates have no chance of survival.

Afghan civilians have been left defenseless and helpless at the mercy of one of the world’s most notorious terrorist groups.    

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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As the United States has started to formally withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, life keeps getting harder for the vulnerable ethnic minorities in Afghanistan such as the Hazaras, who have suffered long-term persecution. Distrustful of the government forces, the Hazaras considered US presence as a protective shield against attacks. According to a by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, there have been more than 25 acts of terrorism against the Hazara community between 2014 and 2018, including bombings of maternity hospitals, wrestling clubs, mosques and schools. Last time, in October 2020, the Kawsar-e-Danish education center in Kabul was targeted by Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) militants, killing at least 30 students.

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While the IS-KP and the Taliban have claimed responsibility for almost all of the acts of violence against the Hazaras in the past, so far, the May 8 attack remains unspoken for. The motivation behind this latest atrocity remains murky, especially since IS-KP does not officially exist anymore, having failed to establish a base in the country. A Taliban spokesman recently told that the attack has been carried out by the Islamic State with the help of the Afghan government’s National Directorate of Security to damage the reputation of the Taliban.

As some lay the blame on the authorities, officials believe the attack has been carried out by the Taliban. Amid the confusion, the Afghan government and various political parties are calling on the UN to investigate the bombing. According to of The New York Times, “Whoever was responsible, they appear to have taken pains to kill as many of the girls as possible.”

Active Target

Since 2014, a year that marked the and saw IS-KP emerge in Afghanistan, the Hazara community has become an active military target for various armed groups and has accused government forces of standing by as massacres continue unimpeded. In the of Sarwar Danish, Afghanistan’s second vice president and himself an ethnic Hazara, in some cases, the community holds the government responsible for the attacks against it.

At the end of 2020, for instance, government forces attacked Habibullah Ghoriani, a tycoon known for arming local Hazaras in Herat province. According to locals and eyewitnesses, the army opened fire on Hazara civilians, including women and children.

In late January, government forces killed 11 Hazaras in the highlands of Behsud district of Maidan Wardak province, claiming that they were affiliates of a local commander who fought against the Taliban and formed the , a Hazara militia. The Afghan National Security Council and the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission later sent two separate delegations to the scene. The results of both investigations showed that , the police chief of Maidan Wardak, committed war crimes and shot at peaceful demonstrators. Although the Interior Ministry announced that Fadaei had been suspended from his duties and the case referred to the attorney general, a few days after the incident, he was appointed police chief of Laghman province without ever standing trial.

Such atrocities have a long history and are deeply rooted in Afghanistan’s culture, society and politics. The Hazaras have faced long-term persecution and discrimination from the majority Sunni Muslim population for being the adherents of the Twelvers branch of Shia Islam. Above all, the Hazaras are viewed as the descendants of Genghis Khan, whose armies ransacked the Islamic world, putting an end to the Islamic Golden Age in the 13^th century. 

In the late 19^th century, Abdur Rahman Khan, the emir of Afghanistan from 1880 to 1901, declared jihad against the Hazaras, more than 62% of their population. Widespread antagonism toward the Hazara community means that the ethnic group is subject to systematic physical elimination, violence and discrimination for religious and racial reasons. On the day of the school attack, for instance, an Austro-Afghan journalist and author, Emran Feroz, “When I was in Dashte Barchi in March, I made a horrible experience that shocked me. I was making photos of a sports event mainly visited by Hazara. Security was bad. So, I asked a soldier about it. His answer: ‘Let them kill the Hazara.’ He continued racist slurs. I freaked out.”

The Responsibility to Protect

The important question now is what should be done to protect this community?

The day after the attack, the families of the victims on the International Court of Justice to impartially assess the bombing. Furthermore, the Hazara diaspora is working to have the 19^th-century recognized. There is also the move to petition the International Criminal Court to start an investigation into crimes against Hazara civilians in Afghanistan and Pakistan since the community is disappointed with the government’s lack of action. Sarwar Danish the May 8 bombing an act of genocide, mentioning that the terrorists targeted a particular ethnic group with distinct beliefs. The Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission in a also called on a team of UN experts to investigate these killings and other violence in Afghanistan. 

The Afghan government and the international community must recognize the Hazara ethnicity as a group subject to systematic discrimination and violence. The Afghan government and the United Nations have a legal, moral and political obligation to protect such a community. This should be clearly reflected in international declarations as has been proposed by the .

There is a number of measures that can be implemented to protect the Hazara community in Afghanistan. First, the presence of the Hazaras at the strategic, staffing and operational levels of the country’s security sector must be increased and ensured. At the present moment, the number of Hazaras in senior and middle ranks of the security organs is in the .

This has intensified targeted attacks against the ethnic group because officials do not feel responsible for securing the Hazaras and are unfamiliar with the socio-cultural and environmental conditions in which the community lives. The first vice president of Afghanistan, Amrullah Saleh, before assuming office, had that he would provide a way of self-protection for the community via intelligence-sharing. Now in office, fulfilling that promise would go a long way.

Second, the international community should use any possible cultural, political and military tools commonly deployed to protect vulnerable groups from extremists. It is key that the Hazara genocide is acknowledged by both the Afghan government and the UN. The attacks on the Hazaras in the last six years go beyond war crimes and crimes against humanity and carry the hallmarks of modern-day genocide. The government of Afghanistan and international organizations should pay attention to the evidence presented to international legal authorities and consider the demands of the Hazara diaspora.

Last but not least, the government of Afghanistan has to strengthen and support the Hazara community so that it can protect itself within the framework of national security and international values as it has successfully done in the past. In 2017, following the escalation of targeted terrorist attacks on the Hazaras in Afghanistan, the government decided to arm civilians to protect Hazara mosques and religious ceremonies. The government’s plan was to people under the aegis of the Interior Ministry.

The plan was so successful that, , a Hazara leader and President Ashraf Ghani’s senior adviser on security affairs, it prevented terrorist groups from attacking Hazara religious ceremonies and mosques during some important ceremonies, such as the Muharram. By implementing such a program, the Afghan government will take a big step toward securing the Hazara areas in the country. Until this is achieved, the Hazara community will continue to face threats to its already precarious existence in Afghanistan.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

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