With a rapidly ageing population and high youth unemployment, Africa must evolve its social safety nets for the elderly.

About Ageing: Facts and Statistics

If you ask people on the ground in Africa about the ageing population, the response is, “So? People must get old and the older they can get, the better.” Growing old is a matter of respect, achievement, satisfaction and family legacy. The elderly in any community on the African continent are held in high regard. By default they are bestowed the family role of patriarch or matriarch of a clan or community. This leaves the rest of the community with an unspoken responsibility to take care of them.

An ageing population can be described as a rise in the median age, resulting in an age structure shift. This shift is the result of various aspects, including declining fertility rates, reduced premature deaths, and higher life expectancy. In 2010, life expectancy in Africa was 54.8 years for men and 57.1 years for women.  African Development Bank data states that people 65 years of age and older accounted for 3.6% of the African population in 2010, which amounts to 36m people. The UN Department of Social Affairs projects that this number may rise to 4.5% of the population by 2030, and nearly 10% by 2050.

With this trend, providing services for the ageing population will certainly be a challenge in arenas such as Health Policy, National Population Policy, and Pension Frameworks.. With the changing population dynamics, access and availability of services and income insecurity, social structures supporting the elderly are no longer adequate.

Implications for the Elderly: Social Structures, Then and Now

In the past, the elderly have always relied on family support – living together in order to secure their livelihoods by pooling together financial and social resources as a family, which is mainly done through agriculture. This assured, if anything, income security of the elderly. The living conditions and general health of the elderly are tied to the extended family. But with increasing urbanization and resulting socio-economic pressures, families have broken up and migrated. Taking care of the grandfather or grandmother becomes a great challenge. As a result, the elderly’s income security has been significantly reduced.

In addition to rising migration rates and urbanization, the number of dependants has also increased. This has caused household incomes to be stretched even more with increasing health, education and food costs. Poverty levels are also increasing, despite recent reports of positive economic performance on the continent. And in households led by the elderly, income security is still a major challenge, with those under their care forced to live in poverty with little assistance from family, community or government machinery. And the family can in many cases no longer be at the centre of assuring the wellbeing of the elderly.

Is the youth bulge creating problems for the elderly?

The increasing health problems relating to old age and a limited resource package at the family and government levels are challenging existing structures. The population pyramid of the African continent is following two trends: the old are getting older and the young are increasing in number. Up to 60% of Africa’s population is reported to be less than 35 years of age. Unemployment levels among this population are high. Access to education at primary and secondary levels is improving, but low at tertiary levels. And many graduates are either underemployed, self-employed or not working at all. As a result, the Demographic Dependency Ratio (DPR) increases, though indirectly. With the government having to provide education and employment for a large youth concentration, it should not forget to invest in services for the small but significant ageing population.

Given such a large youth composite and the lack of employment opportunities, young people are leaving home or income-dependence rather late in age. This increases pressure on the DPR not just for the family, but also for social services. With a large part of the continent lacking viable social safety nets for the elderly, Africa must rethink and evolve existing Population Policies pertinent to the ageing population.

What should be done?

This is not to say that the traditional social structures to care for the elderly in Africa were or are inferior. Or that the Western methodology is superior because it is based on pensions, healthcare and assisted living for senior citizens. However, the structured, well monitored and assured service package is certainly a practice worth replicating. Africa should look into ways of evolving the traditional social structures with solid policy support. This would involve defining more deliberate and separate policies for the ageing population which would include more detail, long-term plans, and potential for creation of stems and structures.

Existing systems should be strengthened and people’s savings in pensions should be respected. There have been a number of demonstrations of retirees pushing for payment of unpaid pensions. These scenarios send a negative message to the broader population who choose to put their savings in local social security or pension funds.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect 51勛圖’s editorial policy.

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The demographic dividend discussion is broad and encompasses a variety of disciplines. If one reviews the diverse literature on the subject, its most common aspect is the idea that some countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, may well be the exception to the rule. The focus presented here will not be on the arithmetic around “the demographic dividend” subject, but rather on the implications of poor policy decisions in some countries in Africa as viewed from a young person’s perspective.

As a young development actor, privileged with the experience of interactions with similar and exceptional actors from across the continent, I believe our call is analogous – that the time is now for African countries to act collectively to take deliberate and sustainable actions that will ensure the impending demographic transition is met by effective policies, institutions, and opportunities on the ground to realize the demographic dividend to its fullest potential.

What exactly is this demographic dividend? The Program on the Global Demography of Aging at Harvard University defines this well in a paper titled Realizing the Demographic Dividend: Is Africa any different? (2007). When “…countries move through the demographic transition from a high fertility and high mortality to a low fertility and low mortality equilibrium, the size of the working age population mechanically increases,” which “can create virtuous cycles of economic growth commonly referred to as the ‘demographic dividend’. Currently, many countries in Africa are in this opportune yet problematic state. According to the United Nations, fertility rates have decreased slightly from 1970 levels; however, they are still high and correspondingly, life expectancy is still low and is actually falling in some countries.

The 2011 Report on the Status of Youth in Africa by the UN’s Economic Commission for Africa posits that many African countries are now experiencing a “youth bulge,” which suggests that this population will peak by 2025 and in 2035 will begin to decline. Thus, the potential of this effect is critical – a window of opportunity to capitalize on the potential dividends of this “bulge.” African countries, especially those in Sub Saharan Africa, must ensure they have effective policies and well-functioning and monitored programs. They must create and strengthen the necessary institutions to optimize the opportunities for young people now and in the near future.

The International Year of Youth was celebrated from August 2010 to 2011. As commemorated since 1985, it provided an opportunity for actors across the world to reflect on the challenges still at hand and successes recorded with respect to the youth, and at the World Youth Conference in Mexico, Africans presented their position on this particular demographic group. On a continent-wide basis, the Heads of States Summit in June and July was held under the theme ‘Accelerating Youth Empowerment for Sustainable Development’. With respect to the subject at hand, this theme was quite significant. The recommendations leading to the Summit’s Outcome (Decisions, Declarations and Resolution) were partly informed by an African Youth Forum organized by the African Union Commission.

The Heads of States’ agreement on young people from the summit, at this point in time, is its most comprehensive yet. It comes at a time when there are broad efforts on the ground led by the AU Commission Youth Division in the Department of Human Resource, Science and Technology. In 2006, the Heads of States agreed on an African Youth Charter, a youth policy framework underlining youth development priorities for the continent, which countries are expected to emphasize. In 2008, the 1st of November was declared the African Youth Day and simultaneously, 2009 to 2018 was declared the Decade on African Youth Development, and a Plan of Action to that effect was developed. In 2009, an African Union Youth Volunteer program was developed and since 2010, hundreds of young professionals have been trained in this unique skills-building opportunity on the continent.

So do these and other ongoing efforts spell an adequate solution to ensure that Africa’s demographic transition is met with results similar to some of the East Asian countries, who have already experienced this “bulge”? This remains to be seen; however, from the experiences on the ground, I would infer that these are steps in the right direction but there are challenges that will continue to impede the momentum.

To be able to take full advantage of the dividend, countries must make sure the large youth population (364 million aged 15 to 34 and 209 million aged 14 to 24 in 2010 for the whole continent) has access to education and skill-building opportunities that will enable them to compete in an increasingly connected and competitive world. They must also ensure that there are adequate investments to utilize the labor capacity that the youth will provide. Without creating sufficient “demand” for these skills, we will not see the benefits translated in GDP.  Moreover, we have seen the negative outcomes of countries with large numbers of unemployed youths.

Savings must also be encouraged and in-turn, the financial and pension services must be strengthened to ensure that the broad-long-term outcomes of the demographic transition render economic prosperity. Healthcare for mothers, children, and the elderly must be made stronger now and readily available. Similar to how youth dependency decreases as the demographic transition happens, dependence amongst these other groups will also decrease if systems have been established.

Many argue that countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are unable to take advantage of the demographic dividend. An often-cited negative externality of an idle labor force is a youth population resorting to destructive paths. It is commonly implied that the often-reported issues of famine, poor education, and massive public health concerns like HIV/AIDS are proof that the dividends will go unrealized. If anything, these daunting concerns are cause to recognize that there are very real challenges on the ground.

What is the youth perspective on this? What, if any, is their feeling on being able to seize the opportunity to turn the fortunes of the continent around as the demographic transition begins to take hold? I do not speak for the millions of African youth, but I know from my counterparts across the continent that we do not accept these purely negative assertions. We realize the challenges. But even with limited guidance, with little and in many places no investments targeting young people on the part of relevant authorities, we have examples of success.

Young people are redefining their role in the political arena across the continent. There are many examples of those across the continent that have taken it upon themselves to ensure that young people are part of the decision-making cohort. Youth are engaging in all aspects of governance, including community leadership, national politics, and policy development through taking political leadership positions. I have recently worked on a case study report with the AU Commission Youth Development and have seen firsthand examples of such as these – examples of young innovators in technology, agriculture, and in social enterprise. This is one of the reasons for optimism – the potential young people have to offer across the continent.

Other reasons are based on sound programs that can be seen on the ground, including the aforementioned commitment by African leaders. These also include the recommendations borne of youth across the continent on policies that affect them. One such example is the recommendation coming out of the African Youth Forum in April 2011 calling for a Youth Policy Index. Such a measure, if utilized, will be common across the continent and help to ensure that particular indicators for youth development policies are met. Tools like this will help coordinate youth development priorities in each country – yielding results on the continental level.

Countries across Africa have the potential to ride the demographic transition train in more or less the same path as East Asian countries did. Reports have suggested that the last 15 years have seen Africa’s fastest period of economic growth, a period where a new generation, though small, has made a significant input to GDP.  I believe that this suggests that the continents’ best asset and opportunity to make a difference is its burgeoning youth population.

For those who have taken the time to look at the quantitative research on demographic dividends, I suspect you will have come to the same – or at least similar – conclusion. Harnessing the momentum gained from commitments to young people in 2011 is critical for development across the continent. Africa’s young enterprising and dynamic minds are a “quarter of a billion plus” and the sheer size of this demographic group is a call in itself that the time is now.

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