Nicholas A. Heras: Is the peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula under one state possible, and under what conditions?

Michael Bassett: Peaceful unification is not only possible, but it is inevitable. North Korea has wanted unification, as a top desire, since 1948. Kim Jung Un's unification policy is geared through engagement with South Korea. South Korea wants to unify when North Koreans are more socially developed, because such a rapid economic migration from North to South would result in social and economic chaos. The unification process would most likely and most smoothly occur if the US and North Korea were to normalize bi-lateral relations, and if the US was to lift all sanctions and embargoes, and help the North Koreans to develop their special economic zones much like the way China developed.

This also means separating the issues of contention from the peace process, i.e. nuclear weapons and human rights abuses. The US would most likely have to give North Korea de facto nuclear recognition, which is totally unacceptable for most people. But in reality, it wouldn't mean much difference or have any effect on anything. It's very much like a marriage certificate says something on paper but has no impact on defining the relationship of the couple involved. Next, a peace treaty would have to be signed, and then from there about 15 years of economic development would have to occur.

South Korea and China cannot economically afford the responsibility of absorbing a burden of 23 million indigenous peasants from North Korea. There would have to be some social and psychological modernization and transcendence that comes along with development. After that period of time, unification could take place. I imagine that with a peace treaty would come more ability for inter-peninsula travel, so it wouldn't be too shocking when unification takes place. Development of the sorts required wouldn't cost insane amounts of money, and it could come from public and private investors. The main challenge is getting sanctions lifted so it's all possible. Japan should lead the way in paying the initial sum for North Korea’s development, by issuing North Korea colonization reparations, which Japan has issued to every other country they have occupied except for North Korea.

Heras: On the topic of Japanese-North Korean relations, how likely is an expansion in North Korea's nuclear weapon stockpile would compel its enemies, most prominently Japan, to seek to obtain their own nuclear deterrence capability and is an "East Asian nuclear arms race" a realistic scenario?   

Bassett: Japan has been drifting away from its post-World War II deals for over a decade. Though Japan’s government uses the North Korean government’s harsh rhetoric and military first policies, and its outlawed nuclear program, and kidnapping of Japanese citizens as justification for Japanese military expansion, North Korea’s actions do not justify Japanese military expansion. The US guarantees Japan’s security on paper and on the ground. The entire US Navy 7th Fleet is in the East Pacific, and the US military is a phone call away in Afghanistan. Japan seems to have ulterior motives for building up their military and successfully regaining the power of independent offensive action, but as to what they are, one can only speculate. It is my opinion that Japan should remain reliant on the security provided by their proctors.

Heras: Is it accurate to state that war on the Korean Peninsula is a more frightening prospect for the Chinese government than it is for the US government and its allies in the region?

Bassett:Many people like to speculate as to what a war would look like on the peninsula if it were to break out tomorrow. There will be no war on the peninsula in our lifetimes unless North Korea sold highly enriched uranium to another country; and even in that scenario military action against North Korea would be a greatly orchestrated surgical operation and South Korea would barely be affected. No one wants war on the peninsula. The goal of North Korea, the very number one goal of North Korea is survival of the regime and continuance of the North Korean way of life.

If there is one thing that anyone should know about the North Korean government, is they are not suicidal. The number one priority of the regime is survival of the regime. South Korea most certainly does not want war. In response to the prospects of North Korea conducting a third nuclear test, the new Park administration has warned of sanctions, but has said that whatever actions they impose, would be sure to not result in continued development of a peace process. Park is very careful not to destabilize the region or South Korea’s relations with its neighbors. In spite of how the media portrays President Park, she is very much a pacifist.

President Park, often compared to her dictator father who was the former president of South Korea, is actually seeing the forest for the trees. She knows that nothing can be accomplished by rattling sabers, and that South Korea has worked incredibly hard to develop economically in the past 30 years, and they don't want to lose what they've worked so hard for. So again, the prospect of war is slight.

Heras: What do you hope that the international public understands about North Korea that it isn't always informed about?

Bassett: I would ask the international community to see North Korea through the eyes of its people like I do. We are all humans on this planet and are equal parts flesh and blood and have brains and souls and hearts. We can only communicate and coexist if we try to understand each other and put aside every slanted misconception we have about North Koreans. It took me a decade to understand North Korea, and I was focusing all of my time, energy, and resources on it. If you want to understand the relationship between the US and North Korea, read 1984 by Orwell. Then visit the North Korean social networking sites and read the blogs of foreigners who have lived there. My good friend Joseph Ferris is an American Ship Captain who, in his spare time, is a tour guide for North Korea. He has a very well developed blog called "," which is a treasure trove of pictures and stories that go along with them.

Another good friend, Felix Abt, recently published a book called "." He was one of the only westerners to have ever directly worked in Pyongyang on development and despite lack of funding, he made a huge impact in his seven years living and working there. Tourism, I would argue, is very important for the future of North Korea, and its relationship with the international community. The purpose of North Korea tourism is two-fold. One is the economic benefit, and the other, and most important one, is the cultural exchanges that take place. These experiences last a lifetime and are special. It humanizes the situation. Humanizing any situation is a good rule to live by in any dealing we conduct with anybody throughout our lives, and should be no different when dealing with North Koreans.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect 51勛圖’s editorial policy.

The post North Korea: Missing the Forest for the Trees (Part 2/2) appeared first on 51勛圖.

North Korea is again at the center of international attention due to assertions that its leadership is pursuing a program of enriching uranium in order to add more nuclear weapons to its current stockpile. In the context of the United States��� military���s ongoing ���Asia Pivot,��� and the disquiet of North Korea���s neighbors at the prospect of a nuclear arms race in East Asia, gaining a strong understanding of North Korea and its society remains a top priority for international affairs professionals and the global public alike.

Nicholas A. Heras:Is North Korea important to the international community only because of its nuclear weapons programs?

Michael 詁硃莽莽梗喧喧:泭I see the international community focusing on nuclear weapons, and human rights, more than anything else, so it does seem that way. I would like to think that we would care about their existence as fellow human beings if they were isolated and in desperate conditions, and if they had no nuclear weapons or human gulags, but I really doubt that we would care otherwise. We should though. North Koreans are human too, and they have a wonderful culture. I always encourage people to experience North Korean culture through a tour of their social media sites before they judge them after listening to the sensationalist media culture in America, or reading some ultra-liberal college textbook here in the USA that doesn���t see ���the forest for the trees.���

晨梗娶硃莽:泭Building off your point of not missing the ���forest for the trees,��� what are the largest misconceptions about North Korea���s leadership as rational actors in the international system?

詁硃莽莽梗喧喧:泭The largest misconception is that the international community thinks that the North Korean leadership enjoys having their country exist in the state it does, especially since Kim Jung-Un succeeded in transition to dynastic power. It���s safe to say that the international community thinks that North Koreans are irrational. I thought so too on my first encounter with them.

While stationed on the DMZ, I heard propaganda all day from across the Imjin River. I was alerted on hundreds of occasions, and once, when a defector crossed, she spoke to our entire camp about what life was like for her in a political prisoner camp for 13 years of her life after being accused of stealing a box of pencils. As a result of that night, I spent the next ten years of my life trying to understand North Koreans.

When I gave my final presentation at Yonsei University on North Korean Government and Foreign Policy, I proposed my ���Abused Person Hypothesis��� as an analogy to define them as a rational actor. If you are treated as a non-person who is locked in a prison and starved your entire life, and called bad names, and treated as if you were bad for being in such a state, then you would behave in ways people would not likely understand and you���d be likely to be ostracized. Now, apply this metaphorical, but very real, experience to North Korea, and compound it with their history of being a ���speed bump��� caught in the middle of thousands of years of wars in Asia, then you can easily understand why their number one goal is survival of their way of life.

To me, the North Korean response is quite rational. As a constructivist, I tend to take their historical development and worldview into account, as well as I can do it, trying to place myself in the shoes of the North Koreans. That has helped me to understand them in ways that most people aren���t even comfortable with.

Heras: What would constitute the survival of North Korea���s ���way of life���?

詁硃莽莽梗喧喧:泭It is my opinion that every citizen in North Korea is the victim of human rights abuse, and those in the gulags are the most miserable victims of the abuses. They are the outcasts that the regime values least critical to its survival. By demonizing the regime for having gulags, the international community not only ignores everyone else who is a victim in North Korea, but it influences policy that results in the further deterioration of the regime as a whole. When conditions deteriorate, everyone suffers.

With fewer resources to survive, everyone ends up in gulags. In the gulag, unlike prisons in the United States, the state isn���t responsible for keeping prisoners alive. They must fend for themselves. Gulags are part of the nasty machine that is a result of that policy. The system is so fragile that they have opened for tourism because even a small group of ten tourists impacts their economy. North Korea is a sovereign nation, whether the international community likes it or not, and by being a sovereign nation they have the right to survive by default of being a unique nation and culture.

If we look at North Korea as being a human being, we could say that when the human starves it would be rational for him to eat his own arm. It doesn���t seem rational for someone to punish someone for ���eating their own arm��� if they were isolated and starved. Many North Koreans die of Pallegra, a disease that occurs as a result of eating corn all the time. The skin on the hands get callous, their finger nails fall off, their facial skin hardens, they get cataracts; and then their stomach hardens and they can���t digest food anymore so they die. The solution is to eat meat, which sadly is only really available in the form of rodents, canine, or felines.

Whether an individual person or state, everyone has the right to exist by any means possible. I hope that one day that North Korea���s attempts at survival are less drastic, but that will depend upon the policies that are created as a result of the international community���s perception of North Korea.

Heras: What internal pressures would change North Korean society, and how would it change?

詁硃莽莽梗喧喧:泭North Koreans do not expect change to come from the outside world. Since Russia fell, and China normalized relations with the US and entered their industrial revolution, North Korea has had very hard times. They’ve endured soil erosion, famine, draught, sanctions, embargoes, and their very existence has been threatened on a daily basis. The juche ideology is all about being self-sufficient, but it is up to theoretical debate as to the definition of “self-sufficiency”, and Kim Jung Un is the only one legally allowed to theorize on juche. He has been exposed to the west, having lived in Europe for several years. Jang Sang Taek [a North Korean General considered to be the second most powerful person in North Korea] is infamously technocratic, and his major was economics. These two worldviews have resulted in a drastic culture shift in that short time.

The military has been used for beautification and development, especially in regards to housing projects and recreational parks. Tourism now constitutes one of the largest legal industries in North Korea. The North Korean government now has official Twitter, Facebook, Flickr, and YouTube accounts. Some North Koreans have computers, even good ones, like iPads. Many have cellphones and TVs. The regime seems to be desperately trying to get the world���s attention on a more human level. It is using social networking to reach out. If the North Korean government succeeds in getting the world���s attention on all the other aspects of their way of life, besides nuclear weapons and gulags, then perceptions of it could change; and hopefully one day normalization of bi-lateral relations could take place, and then within about 15 years from that, the peninsula would be capable of achieving unification.

Read the final part on February 20, 2013.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51勛圖���s editorial policy.

The post North Korea: Missing the Forest for the Trees (Part 1/2) appeared first on 51勛圖.