Petro has been leading the for more than two years and was the clear winner of the of the Pacto HistĂłrico, a group of several leftist parties. The group also placed first in the congressional , marking the first time a leftist party performed strongest in the traditionally very country.

Petro was a of the urban revolutionary guerrilla group M-19, which demobilized in the early 1990s, and later became a senator and of Bogotá, Colombia’s capital. His policy are moderate left, not too from the programs of European social democrats. They promise a more redistributive tax system, increased investment into public education and an end to oil extraction. 

A Time for Change

According to the World Bank, Colombia is the second-most country in Latin America after Brazil. Almost 40% of the population lives in. So, Petro’s proposals resonate with voters. Petro has been a presidential candidate before. He ran in 2010 and 2018, when he lost in the round to Ivan Duque of the right-wing Centro Democrático party.

Recent congressional elections reveal that the left is more likely to win this time. Many Colombians feel it is for a political change after decades of right-leaning governments. In 2016, the government of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Juan Manuel Santos signed a deal with the FARC, a guerrilla group. FARC had been fighting a Marxist insurgency against the Colombian army and state-aligned right-wing since the 1960s.

During this internal armed conflict, internal dominated political discussions, leaving little space for socio-economic issues. For years, leftist politicians and activists were for their supposed links to guerrilla organizations. They often faced stigmatization, death threats or.

The peace deal in 2016 and the demobilization of large parts of the FARC enabled social issues to come up in political debates. Consequently, two of nationwide protests swept the country in 2019 and 2021, demanding wide-reaching social and economic as well as better state protection of social activists, who have fallen victims to killings. 

COVID-19 has boosted the left. “The pandemic hit poor people most severely, and yet the government wanted to put the burden on us,” explains VĂ­ctor, a 21-old organizer of last year’s protests in Bogotá. The government’s failure to provide relief and, instead, putting the burden on the poor has caused outrage. Now, a president from the left suddenly does not seem as unlikely anymore even in historically right-leaning Colombia.

What Might Happen in the Elections?

While most observers expect Petro to win the first round of elections, recent show that he will likely fall short of the necessary votes to avoid a second round. Then, Petro’s likely opponent will be either Federico “Fico” GuttiĂ©rrez or Rodolfo Hernández. Fico was the of the primary elections of a coalition of several right-wing parties and, in the past, was mayor of MedellĂ­n, Colombia’s second-largest city. Hernández, an engineer and entrepreneur, who remained outside the primary elections, is a center-right candidate and has only risen in the polls in recent weeks. He is running an anti-corruption campaign despite a corruption of his own from the time when he was mayor of the northern city of Bucaramanga.

As can be expected, the campaign is getting heated. Recently, Fico rhetorically addressed Petro, : “What you are proposing is the same thing that Chávez said, and look how Venezuela ended.” Fico claims he wants to prevent “,” a term the Latin American right frequently uses to link left-wing policy proposals to authoritarian regimes in Cuba and Venezuela. Fico argues that Petro’s proposed wealth redistribution would be the starting point for authoritarianism and economic decline, pointing to Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua as examples. Given the presence of almost two million Venezuelan in the country, such statements trigger alarm bells among many Colombians.

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If there were to be a second round of voting, winning the endorsement of the third-placed candidate in the first round for both of the top two candidates would be key. If Fico comes third, he will undoubtedly support Hernández. If Fico comes second, then the scenario is less clear. Hernández and other Colombian centrists might end up supporting none of the leading two candidates. In 2018, after finishing a close third in the first round, Sergio Fajardo refused to any of the two candidates in the second round and announced to spend election day watching whales on Colombia’s Pacific Coast. Fajardo the primaries for the coalition of centrists this year. He is still in the running but his popularity has over the last few months. Regarding his 2018 decision, Fajardo now , “It took me a while to figure it out, but I admit that was a mistake.” He may support someone this year but it is unclear who Fajardo would support in this year’s second round.

A Ruthless and Dirty Election Campaign

In the highly polarized country, the last few weeks of campaigning have been intense. Mistrust between the left and the right runs high. Right-wing elites have tried everything to prevent Petro’s rise, including frequent transgressions of campaign laws.

Petro and his vice-presidential candidate , an environmental and human rights activist, have received multiple death. This made Petro call off events in his campaign for several days. He is being rightly cautious. Presidential and political have been assassinated frequently in Colombia. Every year, more human rights activists are in this country than any other in the world. 

The fierce opposition to Petro’s victory is compounded by the underhand methods of the Fico campaign. It has exceeded the number of advertisements allowed to presidential candidates in multiple. Right-wing businessmen and entrepreneurs have openly threatened to employees who vote for Petro.

Duque, the right-wing president who cannot run again because of a constitutional one-term limit, is campaigning vigorously against Petro. In doing so, Duque is breaking a constitutional provision that prohibits officeholders from participating in campaigns. As a result, he faces a for speaking out against Petro but it is unlikely Duque will face any consequences for his actions. In contrast, the national attorney suspended MedellĂ­n’s mayor Daniel from office for much milder support of Petro’s campaign.

The left might be unfairly targeted but it has not been innocent either. Hidden were detected in Fico’s campaign headquarters, confirming statements by the Petro campaign that they had their rival’s campaign team. Petro’s team claimed they had done so to detect, a common practice in Colombia.. Petro’s campaign has Colombians “to take the money and buy groceries with it but nevertheless vote for Petro.”

A Shift to the Center

This election campaign also reveals the waning influence of , a right-wing populist political movement named after Alvaro Uribe. He was president of Colombia from 2002 to 2010. During Uribe’s presidency, the regained ground against several leftist guerrilla groups forging with right-wing paramilitary groups that resulted in human rights violations. 

For decades, Uribe has been the most influential politician in Colombia. He a strong campaign against the 2016 peace agreement and was a key of Duque. Thanks to Uribe’s influence, Duque campaigned in 2018, “to rip the peace deal to shreds” if he was elected. This year, Uribe did not run again for the senate. He is embroiled in judicial for bribing witnesses and procedural fraud. Centro Democrático, the political party associated with his movement, fourth in the recent elections, while in the previous Congress, it was the most powerful party. Its presidential candidate Ă“scar Iván Zuluaga had to call a to his campaign and now supports Fico instead.

Critics rightist candidate Fico as “Uribe’s guy,” but they are not exactly right. Undoubtedly, Fico is the most status quoist presidential candidate in this year’s election. However, his political program reveals a relatively moderate stance on many issues, highlighting that Colombian politics has already become more centrist than before. Also, in his previous for elections to the MedellĂ­n’s city council and to be mayor, Fico ran against Centro Democrático candidates supported by Uribe. 

Unlike Uribismo politicians, Fico the 2016 peace agreement and is open to negotiations for a peace deal with the ELN, a Marxist-Leninist guerrilla group. Fico has Rodrigo Lara Sánchez, a centrist close to the green party, as his running mate. Even though his supporters urged him to, Fico has also to openly support a referendum against a recent ruling by Colombia’s highest court that legalizes abortion. The sign that Fico did not do so further underlines the shift to the center in Colombian politics. 

Turbulent times ahead

This year, the Colombian elections are historic. If Petro wins, the recent of left-wing victories across Latin America will be bolstered in one of the most conservative countries in the region. Since 2018, leftist presidential candidates have elections in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, and Peru.

Petro’s proposals are bold. He has promised an end to oil , which would imply an unprecedented transformation of the Colombian economy. Petro has also promised to implement the 2016 peace deal. Yet promises are easy to make but notoriously difficult to fulfill, especially within a four-year term. Petro would have difficulties finding a legislative across both houses of congress. Even if he was elected president with a big majority, it is inevitable that Petro’s policy proposals would be diluted.If, however, Petro loses and either Fico or Hernández win, a resurgence of last year’s mass-scale protests is likely. These protests led to severe police and human rights violations, which might recur. Large parts of the population are suffering. They hope that, for the first time, elections could yield a government that addresses their needs. Yet this hope is fragile. in the political process is limited and people already have doubts about the integrity of electoral results. As VĂ­ctor, the 21-old activist, states: “We all hope Petro will win but rest assured that we are prepared if the right steals the elections.” In case of a close outcome, it is quite likely that Colombians could take to the streets. It seems a few turbulent months lie ahead.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Colombia Faces Historic Presidential Elections appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.

The elections have provided a crucial first indication of which direction Colombia is heading ahead of the presidential elections in May and June. According to preliminary results, Colombia remains with a highly fragmented Congress; none of the parties has more than 16%. Yet the results are historic. The big winner of the elections is the Pacto Historico, a group of several left-of-center parties campaigning on a platform of social equality. The group out of 108 seats in the Senate and 28 out of 172 in the House of Representatives, up from nine and seven in 2018.

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Other parties performing well were Colombia‘s traditional liberal and conservative parties, which had lost influence in recent years after dominating the country until 1991 when a new opened the political space for other political contenders.

In Colombia, which many observers consider one of Latin America‘s most conservative , left-leaning politics never to gain much ground. Therefore, the results indicate a potentially historic shift since a party with a distinct leftist platform and identity performed strongest for the first time. 

The Electoral Prospects of Gustavo Petro

The results emphasize the chances of Gustavo Petro, the leader of the Pacto Historico, to become Colombia‘s next president since he won the group’s primary with 80.5%. Over the last two years, Petro has been the consistent front in all presidential election polls. He was a  of the urban revolutionary guerilla group M-19, which demobilized in the early 1990s, and later became a senator and  of Bogota, Colombia‘s capital, from 2012 to 2015. In 2018, Petro was a presidential candidate but lost in the round to Ivan Duque from the right-wing Democratic Center party.

However, the recent results and Pacto Historico’s strong performance show that a win of the left is more likely this time. Many Colombians feel it is for political change after decades of right-leaning governments. Two of nationwide protests swept the country in 2019 and 2021, demanding, amongst others, wide-reaching social and economic and intensified state protection against the killings of social activists. In the climate of national outrage, a president from the left suddenly seems not so out of place anymore. 

While no one doubts that Petro will gain sufficient votes to reach the second round of presidential elections, the recent results show that he will need to convince Colombians from the center to vote for him too. Petro has already indicated after the election his move toward the center, to “invite all the democratic forces that are not yet in the Pacto … we must give way to a large, broad and democratic front.”

The primary elections have also revealed Petro’s contenders. Although some presidential candidates to remain outside of the primaries, Petro’s key rivals will be the of the rightist and, to a lesser extent, of the centrist primary elections. Both centrist Sergio Fajardo and right-leaning Federico “Fico” Gutierrez have been mayors of Medellin, Colombia‘s second-largest city in the past. While Fajardo draws support from the wealthy and well-educated urban middle and upper classes, Gutierrez relies on the votes from Colombia‘s large conservative sectors and its stronghold, the department of Antioquia.

The End of Uribism?

The elections also showed that the influence of , a right-wing populist political movement named after Alvaro Uribe, Colombia‘s president from 2002 to 2010, is vanishing. Uribe’s presidency was most known for the regaining ground against several leftist guerrilla groups and between state and right-wing paramilitary forces resulting in human rights violations. Uribe was for the last decade seen as the most influential politician in Colombia, a campaign against the 2016 peace agreement between the government and the FARC guerrilla group, and a key of President Duque.

Uribe himself, who in 2018 most votes of any elected senator, did not run again amidst a judicial against him for bribing witnesses and procedural fraud. The political party associated with the movement, the Democratic Center, which in the previous Congress was the strongest, fourth in the recent elections. The party suffered from the notorious unpopularity of the Duque administration, which has disapproval of over 75%. “I am the main person responsible [for the loss of seats] due to my damage to [the party’s] reputation,” Uribe last week. 

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The party’s presidential candidate, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, who did not participate in the primary elections of the rightist coalition, has his campaign and is supporting Gutierrez instead.

A Similar Trend Across Latin America

Should Colombia vote for Petro, the result would confirm recent across Latin America. Since 2018, leftist presidential candidates have elections in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Honduras, Mexico, Panama and Peru. Likewise, current polls for Brazil’s elections in October this year a landslide win of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a former president from the Workers’ Party, over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

Over the following weeks, campaigning will become more intensified. In the highly polarized country, many participants in large-scale protests during recent years feel that with Petro, a politician their needs could potentially assume power for the first time. Should their hopes amount to nothing and Colombia remain with a right-wing government, a reemergence of mass-scale protests is likely, which in the past resulted in severe police and human rights violations. With the probable outcomes being Colombia‘s first leftist government or nationwide protests, the country faces some truly historic elections ahead.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51łÔąĎ’s editorial policy.

The post Colombia Takes First Step in Joining Latin America’s Left Turn appeared first on 51łÔąĎ.