The Islamic Republic of Iran has maintained a defiant tone in the face of the “maximum pressure” campaign pursued by Donald Trump’s White House. The campaign reached new heights last week when that the US would no longer be granting waivers to eight leading purchasers of Iranian oil after the current ones expire on May 2. The announcement came just two weeks after it was revealed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would be sanctioned and designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the US government.

The Iranian regime’s anti-Western rhetoric also reached unprecedented levels in the immediate aftermath of these dual announcements. Theocratic and military authorities have sought to portray themselves as unaffected by the pressure, but experts on Iranian affairs understand that their defiance is mere bluster. The IRGC controls the vast majority of Iran’s gross domestic product, and oil exports remain central to the nation’s economy. By blacklisting the hardline paramilitary and cutting off most of the world’s markets from Iranian exports, the US is sure to precipitate an even greater crisis than the one the Islamic Republic has already been facing.

The seriousness of the pre-existing crisis was already well established at the beginning of last year, at which time residents of every major Iranian city and town were participating in nationwide protests that reflected the people’s frustration with rampant economic mismanagement and nearly 40 years of violent repression by a non-representative government. Although the initial unrest was suppressed within weeks, largely by the action of the IRGC, it was the start of a much larger movement that continues to inspire public demonstrations to this day.

In fact, the entire year 2018 was deemed a “” by Maryam Rajavi, the leader of Iran’s democratic opposition. In a testament to the social strength and high-level organization of the opposition movement, the People’s Mujahedeen Organization of Iran (MEK) was widely credited with facilitating the rapid spread of the nationwide protests, and with helping to popularize its most provocative slogans like “Death to the Dictator.” Such slogans left little doubt about the ultimate goal of the movement — namely regime change at the hands of the Iranian people.

The United States and its allies can help the Iranian people to realize that goal, and indeed they have already begun to do so. Coming as it did in the wake of the American withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the nationwide unrest served to demonstrate that the civilian population has had enough of the economic hardship the clerical regime failed to alleviate following the signing of the Iran nuclear deal. In other words, it undermined familiar criticisms of assertive Western policy, which tend to suggest that such pressure could drive the Iranian people to rally behind their hardline government while blaming the Western world for their misfortunes.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other Iranian officials have eagerly sought to encourage that very response, but to no avail. Their failure is made all the more remarkable by the fact that much of the regime’s anti-Western propaganda doubles as a veiled threat against those members of the domestic population who would dare to openly voice their dissent, or to promote supposedly “Western” values of democratic governance and secular morality.

Roughly two weeks after the Trump administration announced the terrorist designation for the IRGC, Ayatollah Khamenei announced a sudden change of leadership for the organization. Cutting short the previous IRGC head’s appointed term of office, the supreme leader installed Hossein Salami, the organization’s former deputy head, as his replacement. The Iran-Iraq War veteran’s appointment has been described as a shift to the very hardest of an already leadership. The appointment followed close on the heels of Salami publicly declaring that the IRGC was “proud” of its new terrorist designation. Khamenei himself that sentiment in remarks to other military leaders, declaring that any action that makes Western “enemies” angry is “appropriate and correct” for the Islamic Republic. Such statements are no doubt designed to portray the Iranian regime as impervious to foreign pressure, but no sensible person can take them seriously.

There is hope among the Iranian opposition that the regime will continue to suffer under Western sanctions. This message was partially conveyed by the 2018 protests, and the subsequent expressions of support by groups like the MEK for the continued escalation of that pressure. Iranians overwhelmingly recognize that their hardships stem from Tehran’s self-serving rule and not from Washington’s appropriately principled foreign policy. As such, the most salient feature of Salami’s appointment to the head of the IRGC is the implicit threat of even greater hardline repression.

Fortunately, that threat is somewhat sanitized by the terrorist designation, which will quickly diminish the resources of the Revolutionary Guards. Their repressive power was already stretched to breaking point amidst the protests, and there is no telling how much more quickly that point will be reached when a new domestic activist movement springs up in Iran, against the backdrop of “maximum pressure.”

With that in mind, the Trump administration must remain committed to seeing that strategy through. At the same time, all policymakers and partners of the United States who are torn between this newfound assertiveness and the status quo of Iranian relations should pick a side. Tehran’s defiant attitude suggests that assertiveness raises the potential for war. But in reality, it is only part of a desperate strategy to compel the international community to stand down.

As long as the adversaries of the Iranian dictatorship are willing to call the regime’s bluff, continued international pressure will lead not to open conflict, but to the internal change of Iran’s government. A nation so transformed will no longer be a threat to world peace, nor to its own long-suffering people.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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Over the past two weeks, nearly every province in the Islamic Republic of Iran has been devastated by flooding. Official reports have acknowledged the of at least 70 people, but it bears noting that these figures come after the Iranian regime disputed the initial local announcements of fatalities in certain areas. It is widely believed that the actual death toll is much higher, and that Tehran has been working to downplay the impact of the disaster in order to shield itself from some of the inevitable criticism of an incompetent government response and long-term ecological mismanagement.

In a larger sense, the flooding has become a showcase for the regime’s misplaced priorities and contempt for its own people. President Hassan Rouhani became the focus of criticism by Iranian social media users as well as the international community after it took him nine days to visit flood-ravaged localities. Even after he finally made the trip, the Rouhani administration could not help but use the occasion to breathlessly condemn foreign adversaries, blaming the devastation on “economic terrorism” by the United States while making no reference whatsoever to the repeated mistakes in domestic policy that led to this situation.

Some hardline figures went well beyond merely drawing connections between the inadequate disaster relief efforts and the US sanctions that were reimposed last year after US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. For instance, the Tasnim News Agency, an outlet with close ties to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), chose to peddle a bizarre conspiracy on the backs of flood victims, that “There are reasons for the heavy rains and flooding impacting Iran in recent days: They are the fruit of foreign climate manipulation.”

Of course, Iran’s independent media and the global press are focusing on much more sane and sensible explanations for the extent of the destruction that has been witnessed in recent days. Among the clear contributing factors are the decision by government agencies and private sector affiliates of the IRGC to construct homes and other buildings alongside waterways, as well as the long-term IRGC-led series of dam construction projects that took place without regard for ecological impacts and rarely included proper management of either the structures or the rivers on which they are built.

The IRGC’s dominance of the construction industry — together with a total lack of government oversight — has reportedly to worsening drought over the years and to the drying of long-established and vitally important waterways like Lake Urmia. In the wake of those trends, government authorities should have been prepared to manage any sudden onslaught of precipitation that brought the latest drought to an end. But Tehran appeared to be taken completely by surprise, as evidenced by the president’s long absence from flood zones.

To be clear: US sanctions were not a meaningful factor in the aftermath of the flooding. The sanctions already allow appropriate exceptions for humanitarian goods. The White House made this clear in the wake of last year’s judgment by the International Court of Justice ordering the lifting of any sanctions that might exacerbate humanitarian crises in the Islamic Republic. But short of barring the entry of food and medicine into Iran, there is little that the international community could do to have an effect.

In fact, if anything is going to improve the humanitarian situation in Iran — whether in the aftermath of natural disasters or at any other time — it will be the application of vigorous economic and diplomatic pressure by foreign entities, for the sake of breaking the IRGC’s stranglehold on Iranian society.

Spokespeople for the hardline paramilitary organization would have Iranians believe that it is contributing to the recovery effort in the wake of the flooding. But in reality, the IRGC is exploiting the floods to tighten its grip while suppressing any dissent that might emerge out of the current situation. The fear of such expression of dissent is still running high, nearly a year and a half after the outbreak of nationwide protests that stretched the regime’s repressive capabilities to breaking point. This countrywide upheaval clearly demonstrated the people’s widespread awareness of their own government’s incompetence. As such, protesters roundly rejected Tehran’s efforts to shift blame for the economic crisis and various social ills on to “enemies” in the US and Europe. “Our enemy is right here,” have been heard to chant in reference to the theocratic dictatorship, “they lie when they say it’s America!”

There is no reason to suppose the regime will be more successful in turning people’s hatred against the Western world after the recent flooding, especially if those people witness an opportunistic and misdirected government response first hand. And even if they don’t, the country’s population is well aware of the overall situation that has emerged out of 40 years of fundamentalist rule. This was highlighted amidst the flooding by Maryam Rajavi, the president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, who said via : “The mullahs have made our country defenseless against natural incidents by destroying the environment, deforestation, skyrocketing embezzlements, and wasting the country’s wealth on suppression, terrorism and wars.”

The ultimate solution for Iran’s beleaguered people will only come when there is a democratic government in place in Iran. Until then, one way to counter the devastating effects of the recent floods and other natural disasters is national solidarity now growing among the population.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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Recently, two events that have taken place at the highest level of the Islamic Republic of Iran have once again demonstrated the failed strategy and the massive misreading of Tehran by the European Union. Earlier this month, we witnessed the farce enacted by the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who threatened to quit his post only for his resignation to be by the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The threat, prompted by a non-invitation to meet the Syrian dictator and war criminal Bashar al-Assad when he visited Tehran, ended with the confirmation that the Foreign Ministry of the Islamic Republic acts with the explicit blessing (and of course guidance) of the supreme leader. Wasn’t Zarif the face of the supposed moderates confronting the faction of those close to Khamenei — the hardliners?

This fake rift — separated on minor issues but united as a block in the survival of the system on which they all depend — has been more troublingly exposed with the shameful confirmation this month of as head of the judiciary of Iran. According to Amnesty International’s recent damning , Blood-Soaked Secrets: Why Iran’s 1988 Prison Massacres Are Ongoing Crimes Against Humanity, Raisi was actively involved in the massacre of thousands of Iranian political prisoners, most of them members of the People’s Mujahedeen Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) — the main opposition to the mullahs. This new head of the judiciary was, in 1988, the deputy prosecutor general of Tehran and member of the “death committee” that sent tens of thousands of political prisoners to the gallows, denying the families even the basic right of knowing where the bodies had been buried after the secret executions.

This case, widely recognized as a crime against humanity, was brought back to the front pages when in the summer of 2016, the son of Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who in 1988 was the appointed successor to Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini, published an recorded during the months of the massacre where his father openly denounced it as “the biggest crime in the Islamic Republic.” Directly addressing the “death committee” in Tehran, of which Raisi was a member, Montazeri said: “History will condemn us. The worst crime has been committed at your hands, and they’ll write your names as criminals in history.”

But in a country ruled by religious hardliners, this crime against humanity is not only insufficient cause for investigation and punishment of the perpetrators, but a source of pride for its instigators. When in 2015 Raisi ran, unsuccessfully, for president, he boasted about his role in the massacre and said that he was proud to have executed the members of the MEK. Now he will lead the judicial system of the regime. Weren’t the European Union’s efforts to appease Iran and all these years of dialogue and concessions supposed to empower moderate figures and isolate the hardliners?

All this is the result of a fundamentally flawed policy, based on a bad reading of the internal composition of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The European External Action Service has conducted a strategy based on a mirage of a rift between two sides that are “in confrontation,” falling into a trap set by Tehran by appeasing and conceding benefits to the mullahs’ regime, hoping naively that all this would lead to a change of behavior that never came. These two sides, while ferociously competing for internal parcels of power, are united on the main goal of the regime: its survival through repression at home and export of terrorism abroad.

Last week, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on the case of and other human rights defenders in Iran. Sotoudeh, a human rights lawyer, winner of the Sakharov Prize and a mother of two, was condemned to 38 years in prison and 148 lashes this month for defending the human rights of her compatriots. The resolution also raised attention to the case of , who was sentenced to 15 years in prison in 2010 for so-called “enmity against God” and denied medical care despite suffering from various illnesses. Her three brothers and sister, who all supported the MEK, have been executed by the regime of Iran, two of them during the 1988 massacre.

So far, the EU’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has failed to speak out against the appointment of a mass murderer as Iran’s judiciary chief. Ebrahim Raisi and other officials responsible for human rights abuses in Iran should be added to the EU sanctions list. Europe must work forcefully for the right of Iran’s people to live in freedom and democracy.

The EU was founded on the principle of human rights. It is high time for the EU to understand its failure and to rethink the way we deal with this inhuman theocracy.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect 51�Թ�’s editorial policy.

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